Thread: Archive Latest News - Think Tank - 15/04/08 - 26/08/08

BPCL resumes Iraq crude imports after 2 years

Bharat Petroleum Corp, India's second-largest state oil refiner, has resumed imports from Iraq for the first time in two years, but cut back its small deal with Iran, a top company official said on Monday.

The official also said BPCL plans to increase its total volume of crude imported under long-term supply agreements by 12 percent to 203,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the current fiscal year to next April.

"Our first shipment of nearly 130,000 tonnes of Basrah Light arrived in April and the second is due in September," the BPCL official said, adding the firm had stopped buying the grade in 2005/06 as it was not yielding good margins.

BPCL's new term deal with Iraq is for 5,000 bpd for the calendar year 2008, said the official, who was involved in the deal but did not wish to be identified.

It has raised its term deal with Abu Dhabi by a third to 40,000 bpd, but halved the size of a contract with Iran to 5,000 bpd due to poorer margins, the official said. It originally contracted to buy 10,000 bpd from Iran in October.
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http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...ow/3114475.cms

Demand for the dollar up on Monday

Demand for the dollar was higher in the Iraqi Central Bank's auction on Monday, reaching $84.635 million compared to $60.170 million on Sunday.

"The demand hit $18.795 million in cash and $65.840 million in foreign transfers outside the country, all covered by the bank at a stable exchange rate of 1,197 Iraqi dinars per dollar," according to the central bank's daily bulletin which was received by Aswat al-Iraq - Voices of Iraq - (VOI).

The 16 banks that participated in the auction offered to sell $100,000, which the bank bought at an exchange rate of 1,195 dinars per dollar.

The Iraqi Central Bank runs a daily auction from Sunday to Thursday.

Aswat Aliraq

US ambassador: Kuwaitis only small percentage of fighters in Iraq, but funding is a concern

The U.S. ambassador in Kuwait said Monday that although Kuwaitis account for only a small percentage of foreigners fighting in Iraq, their funding from the oil-rich country remains a concern that must be addressed.

Kuwaitis make up "one percent or less" of foreign fighters operating in neighboring Iraq and even though Kuwait's population is just over a million, this "doesn't mean it is not serious," Ambassador Deborah K. Jones told reporters.

"I am not saying there isn't a problem with facilitation of funding for foreign fighters that we need to address," she said, without elaborating. She didn't provide a number for foreign fighters in Iraq or clarify how many Kuwaitis make up the one percent.

The United States has not said how many foreign fighters are believed to be in Iraq, but said earlier this year that only about 10 percent of al-Qaida there were foreigners. At the time, al-Qaida in Iraq was estimated overall, including Iraqis and foreigners, at up to 8,000, although other estimates place the number at only a few hundred, with Saudis believed to be the largest nationality.

Jones also said Kuwaiti and American officials have had "a lot of discussions" about how to better track former Guantanamo prisoners once they are released, but "more needs to be done."

In April, one of eight Kuwaitis released from the U.S. detention facility of Guantanamo Bay, carried out a suicide bombing that targeted Iraqi security forces in Iraq's northern city of Mosul that killed at least seven people. Many other Sunni extremists from Kuwait who oppose America's military presence in Iraq have fought and been killed there.

Kuwait has been a major ally of Washington since the 1991 Gulf War that liberated it from a seven-month Iraqi occupation under Saddam Hussein. It was also the launch pad for the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq that toppled Saddam.

Jones urged Kuwait to take more steps to integrate the released Guantanamo detainees into society and "find out what is driving" these young men to militancy.

Mubarak al-Bathali, a Kuwaiti Sunni fundamentalist, has been detained here after telling Al-Qabas daily in an interview published last month that he has personally sent fighters from Kuwait to Iraq by way of Syria. The U.S. has chastised Syria for allowing Arab fighters to cross into Iraq. Damascus denies the charges and claims it is impossible to seal its border completely.

Al-Bathali, who has been linked by the United Nations and the United States to Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida, could face trial. His son Abdel Rahman, was captured in Iraq in 2004 and sentenced there to 10 years for working with the terror organization.

US ambassador: Kuwaitis only small percentage of fighters in Iraq, but funding is a concern - International Herald Tribune

Opinion piece - really well written in my opinion

Baghdad between Washington and Tehran

MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti commentator Maria Appakova) - Accompanied by members of his cabinet, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has made his second visit to Tehran since the beginning of the year. Iran has offered Iraq strategic cooperation, including in the military sphere.
This is at a time when talks on long-term strategic cooperation between Baghdad and Washington have stalled. That will have pleased Tehran. The agreement they are trying to reach would contradict Iranian interests.

The Iraqi prime minister is in an awkward situation. He wants good relations both with Iran and the United States. Ideally, he would like to have agreements with both of them, but the tensions between Iran and the U.S. make this all but impossible.

What should al-Maliki do? He cannot do without Iran's help, considering its influence on Iraq's Shiites. Iran could explode the situation in Iraq any time, but it could also choose to reduce tensions. In any event, the Iraqi prime minister cannot afford to quarrel with Tehran.

But at the same time, he badly needs a treaty with the United States. The UN mandate for the international military presence in Iraq expires on December 31 this year, and the Iraqi security forces are far from strong enough to stand alone without Western support. Al-Maliki cannot replace international troops with Iranian forces. Neither the United States, nor Iraq's Arab neighbors would allow this to happen, and even if they did, it would probably lead to conflict with Iraq's Sunnis and Kurds. When Tehran offered aid to Baghdad, most probably it did not mean to send its troops there - this would be way too much.

The Iraqi prime minister's only option is to attempt the Herculean task of reconciling the United States and Iran, its two greatest allies, and the only powers that can guarantee tranquility in Iraq. So far he has made little progress. During his latest trip to Tehran, he tried at least to persuade the Iranian government that a treaty between Baghdad and Washington would not threaten Iran.

Al-Maliki tried to reassure the Iranians that Iraq would not become a bridgehead for U.S. aggression against neighboring countries. This was after the British Independent and several other newspapers published a supposedly leaked draft of the agreement between Baghdad and Washington. There is no obvious evidence on the document's authenticity, but the publications made a lot of noise, threatening to wreck the talks between Iraq and the United States.

The most controversial of the "draft treaty's" clauses provide for establishment of about 50 U.S. military bases on Iraqi territory; immunity for American servicemen and professional soldiers from Iraqi laws; freedom of action for the United States in conducting arrests and taking military action without preliminary consultations with the authorities; control over Iraq's air space at an altitude of less than 9,000 meters; control over Iraq's military contracts and security decisions for the next few years; and the right to attack "any country which poses a threat to international stability" from Iraqi territory. The last is a clear reference on Iran.

These provisions were bound to cause indignation both in Iraq and beyond, most of all in Tehran. U.S. officials, however, deny the existence of such ideas in the draft agreement.

Ryan Crocker, the U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, said that the future agreement would not encroach on Iraq's sovereignty. Considering that the document will be subject to the Iraqi parliament and public debate, it would be absolutely unrealistic to think that its terms could be accepted without a murmur.

Some politicians, including primarily the influential Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr, have already called for protests against the treaty. Iraqi MPs have written to the U.S. Congress threatening to oppose any agreements with the United States, not only in the security sphere, unless a mechanism and time table for the withdrawal of foreign troops is agreed upon. It is easy to see what would happen in Iraq if the reported proposals became reality. Washington can hardly be so naive as to pour more oil on the flames in Iraq.

Washington insists that the leaks that led to the publication of some draft in the press are a well-organized provocation by those who would like to sabotage any agreement between Iraq and the United States.
Iran is the prime suspect. At the same time, the leaks could be a ploy by Washington to test the Iraqi reaction, and possibly make it more pliable by offering better terms than those published in the media. Although the quoted terms look outrageous, some of them could be discussed in reality, for instance, freedom of movement and legal immunity for U.S. troops in Iraq.

Be it as it may, the publications in the media have done their bit - the Iraqi-U.S. talks have ground to a halt. Meanwhile, there is little time left for decision-making. The UN mandate for the presence of foreign troops in Iraq is expiring. So is the presidency of George W. Bush, with who al-Maliki conducted talks on strategic partnership. Last November both politicians set a July 31deadline for decision-making. But today it is obvious that the deadline will not be met.

If the media reports are to be believed, Washington is so desperate to get the deal described in the leaked document that it is threatening to lift immunity from part of the Iraqi hard currency accounts held in the Federal Reserve. According to the Independent, Iraq may lose about $20 billion out of $50 billion.

If the talks with the United States drag on much longer, al-Maliki will have to ask the UN to extend its mandate for the presence of international troops in Iraq. But who, other than the Americans, would want to stay? If Barack Obama wins the presidential elections in November, the American contingent could be withdrawn whether the UN extends its mandate or not. Debates in Congress on the future agreement with Iraq may be as fierce and long as its discussion in Iraqi parliament.

So, for the time being, Tehran has no grounds to worry. But the Iranian government does not want to leave anything to chance, and is upgrading its contacts with Baghdad. The Iraqi government will find it increasingly difficult to be torn between Tehran and Washington.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

RIA Novosti - Opinion & analysis - Baghdad between Washington and Tehran

Gulf to miss 2010 single currency deadline

by John Irish on Monday, 09 June 2008

DEADLINE MISSED: Gulf central bankers have admitted that the planned single currency will not be in circulation by 2010 as previously planned. (Getty Images)

Gulf Arab central bankers agreed to create the nucleus of a joint central bank next year in a major step forward for monetary union but signalled that a new common currency would not be in circulation by an agreed 2010 target.

Confronting record-high inflation that threatens to derail the project, central bank governors from the GCC on Monday laid out a roadmap leading toward common monetary institutions before 2010.

"This is a very big step forward," said Salim Al-Gudhea, head of the monetary union unit at the GCC Secretariat General.

The timetable calls for the central bank draft proposal to be approved by finance ministers at a meeting in September and for Gulf rulers to sign a final deal in November, Al-Gudhea said.

"This is the first time that the draft is going up in the hierarchy rather than back to the technical committee," he said.

Each Gulf state would have to ratify the deal before the monetary council begins operations. The council would not have monetary policy decision-making power but would eventually be converted into the Gulf central bank, he said.

Inflation threatens to ravage the Gulf countries, whose loose monetary policies and windfall profits from record-high oil prices have driven price increases to unprecedented levels and threaten to destabilise their booming economies.

Ahead of the meeting, one leading central bank governor warned that skyrocketing prices had led to disagreements about the launch.

"High inflation rates were never a concern before, and, although it is a temporary phenomenon, yet now it is indeed the factor behind the differences in opinion at this stage, and it can defer the issuance of the single currency beyond 2010," said UAE Central Bank Governor Sultan Nasser Al-Suweidi in UAE daily Gulf News.

The currency plan has already been thrown into disarray twice after Oman decided in 2006 not to join and Kuwait severed its dollar peg in May 2007.

"The draft has been approved by the governors," Naser Al-Kaud, deputy assistant secretary-general for the GCC Secretariat, told newswire Reuters.

A draft for setting up a new monetary council, which would serve as a forerunner to a common central bank, was also approved on Monday, Qatar Central Bank Governor Sheikh Abdullah bin Saud Al-Thani said, telling Reuters the body would likely be operational "this year or next year".

Founding a monetary council similar to what the European Monetary Institute did as a forerunner to the European Central Bank will help anchor the project, Al-Gudhea said.

"We have reached a point in the monetary union process where you need an existing body that operates on a daily basis," he said.

But Sheikh Abdullah left open the date at which the common currency - which has yet to be named - would actually come in circulation and replace member states' coins and notes.

"2010 will be the date for the creation of a monetary council or a monetary authority for the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Sheikh Abdullah said after an extraordinary meeting of the central bank chiefs in the Qatari capital of Doha.

"We are not talking about the currency," he told Reuters.

Inflation has been hitting record or near-record peaks across the world's biggest oil-exporting region, where most states peg their currencies to the ailing US dollar, driving up import costs.

Dollar pegs have forced Gulf states to track US interest rate cuts even though their economies are booming on a more than six-fold increase in oil prices in as many years. Oil prices posted their largest ever one-day gain in dollar terms on Friday, but Gulf currencies have not strengthened in tandem.

An inflation target of no more than 2 percent above the regional average has been one of the most contentious of the EU-style criteria agreed by the six Gulf states.

But inflation has been converging across the Gulf, with price rises likely to average at least 9 percent this year in five of the six states, a Reuters poll showed last month.

"They've been very successful in showing there is greater unity in forging ahead with this," said Monica Malik, an economist at EFG-Hermes investment bank. "But they're still at the very early stages of completing anything concrete."

Bets on currency reform mounted at the end of 2007 after policymakers in the UAE and Qatar indicated they were considering currency reform as they battle inflation. Gulf states had agreed to keep their dollar pegs until the union.

Investors are still maintaining bets on revaluations, with forward rates showing investors betting the UAE dirham and Qatar riyal will rise 3.9 percent and 7.8 percent, respectively, in two years. (Reuters)

Gulf to miss 2010 single currency deadline - Politics & Economics - ArabianBusiness.com

Personal Jordanian high-level visit Iraq to prepare for the visit of al-Maliki in Amman, which will sign an oil agreement with the new

An Iraqi source disclosed that Baghdad expects to visit the Jordanian high-level personality, in the coming days, while Jordan revealed the intention of visiting Iraqi Prime Minister Kingdom of Jordan,
If his return from Tehran to sign an oil agreement between the two countries. The source close to Iraqi Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki will visit the Kingdom of Jordan, following his return from Tehran.

The source explained, in a statement singled out by the «time» yesterday that «Maliki will go to Jordan immediately after his return from Tehran, and then a personal high-level Jordanian visit to Baghdad, a few days after the expiration of Maliki's visit to Jordan».

Source, who asked not to be identified, added that «Iraqi Prime Minister will discuss bilateral relations, during his visit to Jordan, as well as the possibility of signing the Convention on new oil, allowing Amman to obtain Iraqi oil at preferential prices or reduced», pointing out that «personal visit Jordan High To Baghdad, was agreed upon before leaving al-Maliki to Tehran ».

He continued, «after the failure of consultations conducted by Jordan with the Gulf states, oil agreements, the Jordanian side expressed readiness to visit Baghdad and meet with officials», explaining that «visit will witness the launch of a new phase of diplomatic and economic relations between the two neighbouring countries, may be the culmination naming the new Ambassador of Jordan In Baghdad ».

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Originally Posted by Seaview

Personal Jordanian high-level visit Iraq to prepare for the visit of al-Maliki in Amman, which will sign an oil agreement with the new

An Iraqi source disclosed that Baghdad expects to visit the Jordanian high-level personality, in the coming days, while Jordan revealed the intention of visiting Iraqi Prime Minister Kingdom of Jordan,
If his return from Tehran to sign an oil agreement between the two countries. The source close to Iraqi Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki will visit the Kingdom of Jordan, following his return from Tehran.

The source explained, in a statement singled out by the «time» yesterday that «Maliki will go to Jordan immediately after his return from Tehran, and then a personal high-level Jordanian visit to Baghdad, a few days after the expiration of Maliki's visit to Jordan».

Source, who asked not to be identified, added that «Iraqi Prime Minister will discuss bilateral relations, during his visit to Jordan, as well as the possibility of signing the Convention on new oil, allowing Amman to obtain Iraqi oil at preferential prices or reduced», pointing out that «personal visit Jordan High To Baghdad, was agreed upon before leaving al-Maliki to Tehran ».

He continued, «after the failure of consultations conducted by Jordan with the Gulf states, oil agreements, the Jordanian side expressed readiness to visit Baghdad and meet with officials», explaining that «visit will witness the launch of a new phase of diplomatic and economic relations between the two neighbouring countries, may be the culmination naming the new Ambassador of Jordan In Baghdad ».

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This will be a good visit, Iraq and Jordan are good allies!

The Ministry of Finance funded Najaf b (200) billion dinars in preparation for the disbursement of the increase in salaries

Hadi Salamis _ _ secretary of the municipal council Najaf

Mr. Director of the exchequer, said Najaf Mr. Sadiq Ali Khan, the Ministry of Finance began financing Najaf governorate of $ (200) billion Iraqi dinars in preparation for the disbursement of the increase in staff salaries and added that the conditions of civil exchange for central services and non-affiliated financial consultant to the central treasury is that Tables are guestimates identical to finance their constituencies, came during host treasury manager for dialogue and deliberation on the impact of the current controversy about the mechanism of exchange Chatting. ??

Translated version of http://nahrain.com/news.php?readmore=13776

Britain could announce Iraq withdrawal by end of the year

The final withdrawal of the remaining 4,000 British troops from Iraq could be announced by the end of the year in order to step up troop levels in Afghanistan, reports said Tuesday. The BBC said discussions had begun about forces pulling out of southern Iraq if the security situation continued to improve along current levels.

The government was under pressure from the military to release the troops, now stationed at barracks just outside Basra, while pressure was mounting in Afghanistan.

The reports, which have not been confirmed, come after a flare-up of violence in Basra forced Prime Minister Gordon Brown to go back on an earlier announcement that troop levels would be cut to 2,500 this spring.

Commentators said the timing of a final troop withdrawal from Iraq by the end of the year would fit in with a change of US president and possibly less opposition from Washington to such a move.

Britain, which currently has 8,000 troops in southern Afghanistan, announced the death of its 100th soldier in the fighting last weekend.

Britain could announce Iraq withdrawal by end of the year : UK World

'Bush may not finish US-Iraq deal'
The Bush administration is conceding that the US may not finish a security pact with Iraq before President George W. Bush ends his term.

A top administration official close to the talks said on Monday that it is 'very possible' the US may have to extend an existing UN mandate.

That would mean major decisions about how US forces operate in Iraq could be left to the next president, including how much authority the US must give Iraqis over military operations and how quickly the handover takes place, AP said.

The official who spoke on condition of anonymity because the negotiations are not public said the goal is still to have an agreement by year's end.

Earlier, the US ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, said he feels no pressure from the US political calendar, and that Dec. 31 is 'a clear deadline'.

Washington's proposed US security accord with Baghdad has faced fierce opposition from Iraqi political and religious leaders who say the pact undermines Iraq's sovereignty.

The Iraqi government has also expressed reservations over the accord, saying its vision is different from that of the US.

Press TV - 'Bush may not finish US-Iraq deal'