Thread: Archive Latest News - Dinar Think Tank - 27/08/08 - 15/01/09

Preparation of three drafts of the Budget due to the fluctuation of International Oil Prices

Said Finance Minister Baqir Jabr Solag implementation "of the provisions of the law of financial management has been prepared by the Ministry of Finance for more than a month. Three estimates of the budget of the Federal State in 2009 due to the fluctuation of international oil prices which prompted the Ministry of Finance for the preparation of three drafts of the budget of 2009 "and added Solag. The first budget was prepared based on "the price of a barrel of oil b 147 dollars per barrel during the process of completion and the price of oil fell to 120 dollars, which led to rewrite the budget. The price of oil has reached the low price of $ 100, forcing the Budget Department in the Ministry of Finance to prepare its budget based on "the 80 dollars per barrel".

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What if one of the wings of first trend breaks?!

Since the removal of Saddam Hussein, two trends have emerged in the new Iraq. The first trend aims at setting up a new political process through constitutional institutions, while the second aims at holding up the constitution and the wheel of the new political process.

The political figures of the first trend work explicitly- they are part of the political process and the constitutional apparatus, but the second trend works in both explicitly and clandestinely.

The second trend did its best to fuel sectarian strife between the Shias and Sunnis by all means as a scheme to plainly stop the political process and to overthrow the government, but it failed .It still tries the secret scheme through supporting military and combat operations of the armed groups against the government.

For now, this trend is working in the shadow of the constitutional institutions of the state and government; its members are in the official uniform of the apparatus and the laws of these institutions in order to stop the political process as well as generating and deepening crisis among the sides of the national unity government, namely between the two wings of the first trend.

The first trend is suffering from cracks and divergences stretched among its makeup on subsidiary issues, leaving the second trend playing in the arena like a mouse without someone to look out.

To my surprise, the first trend, even with all its common agreements, protocols and the joint historic strive, has left its teamwork and involved in internal disagreements. Regardless of the potential gravity that lie in the acts, attempts and the way the second trend is working in deepening the current cracks and divergences among the first trend to achieve its goal in stopping the political process and eventually overthrowing the government by a military coup through those military officers who are its followers, bearing in mind that their number in the army is growing.

The current government and the entire political process were formed and remained unwavering in the face of the differences among the first trend due to the cracks on one hand and the war waged by the second trend on the other. Had it not been for the persistence of one wing of the first trend in supporting the government, namely the Kurdistan Alliance, then the scale of the cracks among the first trend would have reached the point of the collapse of the national unity government few months from now.

The second trend along with other groups realize pretty well that without cutting off the Kurdish wing from the national unity government, it would be difficult to envision the collapse of the political process along with the current government.

Unfortunately, the second trend managed to create some kind of cracks between the conventional sides of the government and the Kurdistan Alliance, in the absence of genuine and profound understanding by some leaders of the United Iraqi Alliance and their allies from the consequences of the dangerous path which the second trend is following.

The more surprisingly is that some policies of the United Iraqi Alliance and its strategic allies have become key factors paving the way and providing free services for the efforts of the second trend that seeks to widen the gap between the Kurdistan Alliance (one of the first trends wings) and its strategic allies (the other wing) so as to break through this gap their long –waited goals.

The first trend which consists of the Kurdistan Alliance and its strategic allies along with other groups who have drawn from the national unity government, should change the way they are currently dealing with the second trend by not letting it unreservedly achieve its goals under the umbrella of the constitutional institutions and democracy, carrying out non constitutional policies to fuel the conflict between Kurds and the government.

Underestimating the policies of the second trend and citing them as scattered groups incapable of spoiling the ties among strategic allies, will constitute an incorrect approach and should be revised through rearranging the priorities between the two key wings of the government.

PUKmedia :: English - What if one of the wings of first trend breaks?!

President Talabani to attend UN General Assembly

Iraqi President is scheduled to pay a visit to the United Nations on Friday to present a speech focusing on the current crises in Iraq and ways to address them.

The president’s remarks come amidst the annual gathering of all the presidents at the United Nations in New York.

According to the White House spokeswoman Dana Perino, all presidents stress the importance of effective multilateral action in promoting freedom and democratic governance, addressing terrorism, and reducing barriers to international trade and investment.

President Talabani will also visit Clinton Global Initiative and hold series of meetings there. After his visit, President Talabani is expected to return to Iraq.

PUKmedia :: English - President Talabani to attend UN General Assembly

Update......

Oil giants flock to Iraqi auction

THE world’s largest oil companies will converge on London next month for a chance to re-enter Iraq for the first time in more than three decades.

In all, 34 oil companies, including BP, Royal Dutch Shell, BG, Exxonmobil. Gazprom and Sinopec, are expected to attend a roadshow held by Iraq’s oil minister Hussein al-Shahristani when he officially kicks off the bidding for so-called technical-service agreements.

These will govern exploitation of eight of the country’s largest fields.
At the event, scheduled for October 13, bidders will be given technical data on the sites in question — six giant oilfields including Kirkuk and West Qurna and two gasfields — bidding parameters and remuneration terms.

The opening of Iraq, which sits on the world’s third-largest oil reserves after Saudi Arabia and Iran, has been eagerly awaited by the industry but has been repeatedly delayed by security concerns and political infighting that has held back a crucial hydrocarbons law.

But recent deals struck by the country’s oil ministry with Shell and China National Petroleum, despite the continuing political limbo of the hydrocarbons law, have raised expectations that oil companies will be welcomed back en masse for the first time since the industry was nationalised in 1972.

The oil ministry called off talks on no-bid short-term advisory contracts this summer in place of the longer deals that feature in the new plan.

The oil ministry is not expected to award contracts for at least another six months, pushing back a previously annoucned plan to increase production by 500,000 barrels per day to 3m barrels by the end of this year.

The Kurdistan regional administration in northern Iraq has been signing contracts with foreign oil companies for more than two years, but has been unable to attract the largest firms who feared angering the federal government and getting shut out of auctions for the giant fields in the south.

Contracts will be fee-based rather than the industry’s preferred revenue-sharing model.

Oil giants flock to Iraqi auction - Times Online

Local bank uses ‘m.o.b.i.l.e bank’ for first time in Iraq

The director of the Iraqi credit bank said on Monday that the next two weeks will witness the beginning of the use of m.o.b.i.l.e p.h.o.n.e.s in banking dealings for the first time in Iraq.

“This new experiment in the Iraqi banking system will spare customs’ efforts,” Fouad al-Hasni told Aswat al-Iraq - Voices of Iraq - (VOI).

“The customer will get the recharge card from a phone call and the whole matter will develop to pay his bill through the m.o.b.i.l.e,” he explained, noting that the customer’s services develop to get his needs, including his daily shopping through the credit card or the smart card.

“This service could develop to help the customer in Baghdad or other provinces or could help him abroad,” al-Hasni said.

The credit bank was established in Baghdad in 1998 and has 18 branches in Baghdad and other provinces.

Aswat Aliraq

Higher demand for the dollar on Monday

Demand for the dollar was up in the Central Bank of Iraq's (CBI) auction on Monday, registering at $70.385 million compared to $42.360 million on Sunday.

"The demand hit $17.385 million in cash and $53.250 million in foreign transfers outside the country, all covered by the bank at a stable exchange rate of 1,180 Iraqi dinars per dollar, unchanged for the fourth consecutive session," an official source from the bank told Aswat al-Iraq - Voices of Iraq - (VOI).

None of the 10 banks that participated in the session offered to sell dollars.

The Central Bank of Iraq runs a daily auction from Sunday to Thursday.

Aswat Aliraq

First economic newspaper published in Mosul

The first edition of “al-Madina al-Iqtesadiya” newspaper was published on Monday as a first economic newspaper in the city of Mosul.

“The edition (in the name of god) from the newspaper was published today as the first newspaper concerned in economic and trade affairs in the city of Mosul,” Emad al-Din al-Amin, the editor-in-chief, told Aswat al-Iraq - Voices of Iraq - (VOI).

“The Iraqi market witnessed construction, economic and trade activities,” he added, explaining that the matter encouraged us to publish a specialist newspaper to cover such activities.

“The paper will be published on a weekly basis and will be financed through advertises and press services on its papers,” he said.

Mosul, the capital city of Ninewa, lies 405 km north of Baghdad.
The original city of Mosul stands on the west bank of the Tigris River, opposite the ancient biblical city of Nineveh on the east bank, but the metropolitan area has now grown to encompass substantial areas on both banks, with five bridges linking the two sides.

Despite having an amount of Kurdish population, it does not form part of the area controlled by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).

There are different communities in Mosul like Christians, Shiites and Kurds along with a Sunni majority.

The fabric Muslin, long manufactured here, is named for this city. Another historically important product of the area is Mosul marble.

The city is also a historic center for the Nestorian Christianity of the Assyrians, containing the tombs of several Old Testament prophets such as Jonah, Yunus in
Arabic, and Nahum.

Aswat Aliraq

President Barzani: Kirkuk is an Iraqi issue

In an interview with al-Jazeera s.a.t.e.l.l.ite channel, the President of Kurdistan Region Massoud Barzani said “the Iraqi army is our army. We want it to be a strong and well armed army, but on condition that the army should not interfere in policy. The army should also not to be deployed unilaterally from Baghdad, regardless of his position, wherever he wants or if he has a difference with any party.”

“The army must be under a political leadership command and its rebuilding must be according to the parliament agreement and negotiations with the political parties. The Kurds’ role in the army must not be overlooked, because the Kurds are partners in the federal government. The first two brigades of the Iraqi army were from Peshmerga forces, at the time when the other parties were not ready yet to participate in”, President Barzani added.

Regarding the provincial elections law, President Barzani said “we have a constitution, which was ratified by Iraqi people, that constitutes a road map to solve the disputed areas’ issue, including Kirkuk, via the Article 140. We are with the constitution and we must uphold it.”

“Article 24, which was discussed at the parliament in July, had come as a alternative for Article 140 and that is unacceptable. We are not against carrying out the elections, but why do we carry out the elections in Kirkuk as carrying out them in the other provinces. We accept carrying out the elections in Kirkuk, but if there were any reasons or to assure some parts by postponing the elections in Kirkuk, then we accept it too on a condition that there is no any law to be instead of Article 140. We are supporting the fair amendment for positions and we are not with distributing the province council’s seats, since it is an electoral merit”, President Barzani added.

Concerning the oil law, President Barzani said “we didn’t violate the constitution in any contract, and if there were any difference then we are ready to retreat and correct it. In February 2007, we reached to a draft agreement about the oil law, which was sent to the State Council under the pretext of linguistic wording were the law had been exchanged. The constitution said that the regions have the right in signing contracts and that the fields are ruled by the federal government with the regional government, while the new fields are ruled by the regional government in coordination with the federal government. There is also another agreement which says that the oil revenues belong to the Iraqi people and must be divided equally on everyone”, he added.

In answering a question about the relations with Turkey and Kirkuk issue, President Barzani said “Kirkuk is an Iraqi issue in any case and must be solved by the Iraqis. Turkey and the other countries don’t have the right to interfere in.”

Regarding the strategic security pact with U.S., President Barzani said “we are with the agreement. Any American existence ruled by a pact is much better than giving the troops a wide authorization. The agreement is in the best interest of Iraq on the condition that it doesn’t affect Iraq’s sovereignty.”

PUKmedia :: English - President Barzani: Kirkuk is an Iraqi issue

U.S. stuck in Iraq's complex politics

As Americans get ready for one of the most important elections in the country's history and the tradeoffs, obfuscation and switching of policies that this entails, it is important to remember that the same holds true for provincial elections in Iraq to be held sometime in 2009.

Americans seem to think Iraq's politics are intractable, and they are. To understand Iraq's politics, it is best to conceive of that country's political parties or groupings as Those That Have versus Those That Don't Have.

The Have parties are the strongest parties in Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's government: The Kurdish List and Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, which is closely aligned with Iran. The third major party is Da'wa (Islamist) to which al-Maliki belongs.

That bloc is contested by the Have Nots, consisting of Sadrists and Fadila (both Shi'a Islamist), Tawafuq (Sunni Islamist), al-Hiwar al-Watani (mostly Sunni) and Iraqiya (secular leaning). Fadila, which controls the three major southern oil-producing provinces from which 85 percent of Iraq's oil is produced, favors autonomy for them.

The U.S.-backed Have parties are opposed to the scheduled provincial elections, fearing that they might lose or, at least, suffer significant losses. The United States favors the current configuration of power because it must deal with the current government to continue to suppress violence, facilitate a drawdown of troops and sign a final status-of-forces agreement.

The Have parties favor ethno-federalist policies that could end in formation of three separate entities: Kurdish, Sunni-Arab and Shi'a-Arab. Don't Have parties are largely centrist and favor a strong central government in Baghdad. Have parties hope to achieve their policies by Shi'a dominance of Baghdad or establishing a Shi'a separatist region in the nine provinces south of Baghdad.

Don't Have parties are resistant to U.S. policies perceived to be in favor of the dissolution of the country. They do not believe U.S. proclamations that it supports a unified Iraq.

America's problem is that the policies and priorities of the two political constellations overlap. Some in the Have parties, including al-Maliki, seem to favor Iraqi nationalists, whether Sunni or Shi'a, and oppose the ethno-federalists.

Al-Maliki favors reconciliation between Sunnis and Shi'a, albeit with Shi'a dominance of government. His policies are clear in this regard, as he opposes Kurdish annexation of oil-rich Kirkuk to the Kurdish Regional Government.

This policy was evident last month when government forces ousted KRG forces from heavily Kurdish areas of northern Diyala province. Al-Maliki achieved this even though Kurdish forces are the second strongest contingent in the government's military. A few days later, al-Maliki's forces evicted Diyala's governor, a member of the strongest party in al-Maliki's coalition.

Both actions attest to al-Maliki's nationalist leanings and his opposition to the ethno-federalists. Indeed, in some instances, it seems that al-Maliki's political goals are closer to the parties that oppose the stated policies of his government than to his coalition partners. Al-Maliki also opposes the Sunni Sons of Iraq Awakening 100,000-strong militia created by the United States as part of its surge strategy to fight al-Qaida in Iraq and the Sadrist forces.

The United States armed the Sons of Iraq to the tune of $1 billion to $1.5 billion and gave their tribal leaders millions of dollars in bribes. Al-Maliki does not want to include the Sons of Iraq in the government's Shi'a- and Kurdish-dominated forces. If the Sons of Iraq feel further excluded from power, they may turn their U.S.-supplied weapons against government troops.

Al-Maliki's centrist policies are alienating his two major ethno-federalist coalition partners, the Kurds and the ISCI. Government forces and Kurdish Regional Government forces have been at loggerheads over the status of Kirkuk and other disputed areas that are not part of the KRG, but are controlled by its forces. There has been sporadic fighting between KRG and government forces for the last six weeks; open warfare is a real possibility. If the latter were to occur, Kurds might withdraw from al-Maliki's coalition. Such a development would open the way to strong-man authoritarianism in Iraq.

Such developments provide a conundrum for U.S. policy-makers. If provincial elections go forward, the parties in al-Maliki's coalition could be diminished. This would make it more difficult for America to complete a status-of-forces agreement and have it ratified by Iraq's parliament before the provincial elections. An agreement would determine the parameters and extent of U.S. military control in Iraq for decades to come.

Since there will be no provincial elections in Iraq before the November U.S. presidential election, the consequences of the intractability of Iraq's politics will be left to the next president.

PUKmedia :: English - U.S. stuck in Iraq's complex politics

Iraq to host fair for oil giants

Iraq is to host a giant conclave of the worlds biggest oil companies in London next month in a bid to open its vast reserves to long-term drilling contracts and counter impressions that it aims to shut out Western firms, it was reported here Monday.

Baghdad has invited 41 companies, including Royal Dutch Shell, BP and Gazprom, to the London fair to prepare for the first round of bidding on the Bazargan, Abu Gharab and Fakka oil and gas fields, The Daily Telegraph newspaper said.

"The oil ministry will unveil the legal framework and conditions for signing service contracts by qualified oil companies", said a government spokesman.

The contracts will be fee-based.

Iraq holds the worlds third largest oil reserves after Saudi Arabia, and (for now) Iran, with more than 115 billion barrels.

It has nudged up production this year to almost 2.5 million barrels per day with fresh supplies from Kurdistan as the security picture improves, becoming a swing player in the worlds delicately balanced market, the paper said.

Oil minister Hussain Al-Shahristani said he hoped to raise output to 2.7 million barrels per day by the end of this year, but the government has sent out mixed signals over the role of foreign companies in the new investment.

Christopher de Margerie, head of the French group 'Total', said the country seemed to be sliding back towards protectionism after the government cancelled negotiations for a joint service agreement with Total and Chevron in the Basra region.

Iraq to host fair for oil giants