Thread: Archive Latest News - Dinar Think Tank - 27/08/08 - 15/01/09

U.S. pressure, Iraq stepped up delivery of amendments to Convention & security for vote will be secret

Under U.S. pressure the Iraqi government On the security agreement expected Possible to resolve the crisis about it, after the Iraqi government to hand over the proposed amendments last Tuesday evening to Ambassador Ryan Crocker, the U.S. negotiator to brief the U.S. In the time in which he said the Kurdistan Alliance MP Mahmoud Othman said the Iraqi parliament may try to vote by secret ballot on the Convention, there are those who call for the adoption of two-thirds approval of a subject now being discussed by the Constitutional Court of Iraq, there is also the call Enactment of an Act of Parliament to determine how to ratify these conventions, such as strategy, Osman said that the vote by secret ballot to ensure greater freedom of deputy to express his opinion away from the pressures Mass or his party.

Osman said that the Amendments are concentrated in several points in the forefront of changing the name of the Convention of the "Security Agreement Strategy "to the" Convention on the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq and organization of work during the Before its withdrawal".

He said the amendments also included a reduction of immunity claimed by the United States U.S. troops and contractors, and asked the Iraqi government should be identical versions Arabic and English text of the Convention impetus for any confusion or misinterpretations.
And a member of the House of Representatives expected to be signed before the end of this year so as not to Forced Iraq to request to extend the stay of American troops, saying that the month of December The next appropriate date for signing..

For his part, the deputy in the Iraqi government refused to be named (the Iraqi press agency) that the orientation a secret ballot Imcnam help deputies to approve the Convention as the public voting that could expose them to risks and threats may be Raha Iran and the fear of walking the Convention.

The Attorney may be gathering votes from the Convention and the Kurdistan Alliance and the list of Iyad Allawi and independent deputies, expected to play a number of deputies to attend the parliament session, which will be discussed and voted on the Convention to escape the consequences.

For his part, Kurdistan Alliance MP Mohsen Saadoun States Majaop of Iraq "look Convention security to each according to his surroundings and his relationship with America in general and with particular”, Indicating that the Iraqi government and parliament, "the resolution put national priorities above all. Not interested in what others are saying, "as he put it..

Saadoun said .. Must "be Clear with neighboring countries that we totally reject Iraq to be the scene of an attack on any country Neighbor, "noting that" Iraq needs as the signature of the Convention security is Also need to be a strong relationship with its neighbors”.

http://74.125.93.104/translate_c?hl=...EiImQ928L9pZiQ

Ibid Sistani stresses the prejudice to the sovereignty of Iraq in the security agreement

The supreme religious leader Ali Al-Sistani, Wednesday, said the security agreement being negotiated with Washington should not harm Iraq's sovereignty, as quoted in a statement issued by his office.

The statement quoted received by (Voices of Iraq) a copy of Braa, "The Ayatollah Ali Sistani stresses the prejudice to the sovereignty of Iraq, which follow closely the developments as clear final agreement."

The statement was issued after a visit to Seestani by First Deputy Chairman of the House of Representatives, Khalid al-Attiya, the leader of the United Iraqi Alliance Ali al-Adeeb.

The Council of Ministers was authorized yesterday by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to negotiate changes that were made at the draft agreement with Washington, which sets a schedule withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq.

But the White House said he warned changes after months of complex negotiations.

Opposed to a number of Iraqi politicians Convention, in particular the Sadrists, who left his supporters in demonstrations in Baghdad and several provinces.

http://209.85.171.104/translate_c?hl...eJIb3MxA3Wgk1w

White House refuses to make any new amendments to the Convention
The White House expressed strong opposition to any new amendments to the final draft of the security agreement with Baghdad, said Dana Perino, White House spokeswoman, said that the U.S. administration so far has not received the new amendments demanded by the Iraqi side

Describing the Convention as good and that any further adjustment would be very difficult, as saying.

The Perino saying: "We believe that we have the best offer possible and we have told them two weeks ago that we want to change anything it would be difficult to achieve, and we believe that the door has been closed almost on these negotiations."

The Perino said the White House had not yet seen the amendments demanded by the Iraqi government, she said: "not to go after those amendments, which soon will brief the head of our delegation negotiator Ambassador Ryan Crocker, but I say again here that it is very difficult to change the text."

http://translate.google.co.uk/transl...-8&sl=ar&tl=en

Bush warns of amendments to Convention & expresses confidence that it will have consent of Iraq side in the end
President George W. Bush warned of the amendments would "undermine" the security agreement between Washington and Baghdad, which defines the American military presence in Iraq,

He stressed that Washington would consider the amendments put forward by Baghdad at a time in which he expressed his confidence that the agreement will have the consent of the Iraqi side in the end.

President Bush made the remarks during a news conference, in the presence of "the Kurdistan region of Iraq," Massoud Barzani, following the reunion in Washington Wednesday, shortly after the White House announced that U.S. envoys in Iraq are currently reviewing the proposed amendments from the Iraqi side.

Bush noted that the Kurdish official was among those who support the Iraqi government to approve the Convention on the future status of U.S. forces in Iraq after the end of the mandate granted by the United Nations to the international coalition forces, by the end of December next.

Bush said the U.S. administration received the amendments proposed by the Iraqi side on a formula agreed during the last few hours, noting that officials are considering, he said that the United States "wants to help, but we must avoid undermining the basic principles of the agreement."

He said during his meeting with the President of Iraq's Kurdistan region Massoud Barzani told him that he receive the text of the amendments from the Iraqi government and "under analysis", adding that Washington would be "constructive without undermining the fundamental principles", emphasizing that he remains "confident in the hope of" from passing.

Bush's statement comes a day after the government of Nuri al-Maliki Adoption of amendments to the draft agreement was unclear nature, and given a party sent to the U.S. Central American Embassy in Baghdad confirmed Wednesday that it received.

Bush praised Balbarzani as a "strong advocate" for the passage of the Convention within the Iraqi government.

http://translate.google.co.uk/transl...-8&sl=ar&tl=en

Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are poised to cancel 20 billion dollars owed by Iraq and to end the file of compensation to Kuwait

Close to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to resolve the issue of debts owed by Iraq, which has about 20 billion dollars, in agreement with the Baghdad government to repeal, as well as addressing the issue of compensation paid by Iraq to Kuwait and other countries affected by the brutal invasion.

This came in a press statement made yesterday by the chief adviser in the office of Iraqi Prime Minister Thamer Ghadhban, who explained that the body had formed committees to negotiate the cancellation of the debt of Iraq to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, as well as end the file of compensation as well.

Ghadhban said: "The debt issue has a clear mechanism by creditor nations to Iraq, stressing that the great achievements made in this area during the Paris Club agreement is likely to close this file once and by the end of this year.

Ghadhban said that the remaining debt is the debt of the State of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia ..He pointed out that Iraq continues towards a settlement of a government or cancellation of this debt in order to remove this heavy burden of the legacy left by the previous regime, said that the committees were formed to address this issue as well as address the issue of compensation to Iraq for a number of countries to reduce the burden on the government and the Iraqi people , Praised the position of the UAE decided to cancel their debts to Iraq earlier this year.

The debts of Iraq to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia up to nearly 20 billion dollars, the UAE was fully abolished on Iraq debt, amounting to about three billion dollars.

http://66.102.9.104/translate_c?hl=e...uh08wTE-YTosqA

Amendments to Security Agreement with Washington needed to pass in Parliament, but may take time

According to a member of the Committee on Defense and Security in the Iraqi parliament deputy from the United Alliance list Abbas al-Bayati, that "the amendments proposed by the Iraqi government on a draft Security Agreement with Washington might take a long time may go beyond presidential elections in the United States of America."

The Iraqi government on Tuesday held an emergency meeting to discuss security in the Convention adopted amendments to the draft agreement and the delegation of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to offer amendments to the U.S. side.

Al-Bayati said in an interview with "Uzmatik" said Wednesday that "these amendments need time to reach an agreement because it touches on important points in the draft Security Agreement with Washington," pointing out that "there will be negotiated after the U.S. election would mean the disposal of the American pressure on Iraq is currently in its adoption of the convention before now. "

Bayati said that "the amendments proposed by the Iraqi government to draft agreement on security judicial immunity for U.S. troops and the dates and schedules U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and the issue of mail sent to American forces as well as to improve the Arabic version of the Convention, which contains the words unintelligible and non-specific," as he put it.

The deputy, the United Alliance list that "the remarks of U.S. officials reject any amendment to the draft agreement will adversely affect the security pass and ratify the Convention in parliament."

The member of the Defense and Security Committee in parliament that "the amendments to the Iraqi government to draft agreement to create the security necessary political consensus inside Iraq, for approval after the political blocs and the Iraqi government on the amendments."

http://66.102.9.104/translate_c?hl=e...-oxbJVn5FqhpLw

Interview: Transparency and Surpluses in Iraq's Oil-Dependent Budget

October 28, 2008

Interviewee: Joseph A. Christoff, Director of International Affairs and Trade, U.S. Government Accountability Office
Interviewer: Greg Bruno, Staff Writer, CFR.org

Joseph A. Christoff, director of the international affairs and trade division for the U.S. Government Accountability Office, which has audited Iraq's finances, says Iraq has weathered low oil prices in the past and and is likely to do the same now. "Oil prices back in the 2005 were $43 a barrel and Iraq still ended up with a surplus at the end of that year," Christoff says. "Now you have oil prices that have declined to about $65 per barrel, but Iraq generated a heck of a lot of money in the first eight months of the year; it's still going to have a chunk of change at the end of this year to hopefully begin investing in its own infrastructure."

In a previous interview with CFR.org, Iraq's Minister of Finance Bayan Jabr Solagh said Iraq has no surplus of funds. But Christoff says the GAO's August 2008 analysis found the opposite. "Iraq has a lot of money available for its day-to-day operations that exclude the foreign exchange reserves." The GAO says Iraq spent just 14 percent of the money it allocated from 2005 to 2007 on roads, bridges, vehicles, and other critical infrastructure. Christoff says a lack of skilled workers and a reluctance to spend their own capital while U.S. dollars circulate have contributed to the budgetary inertia.

Can you give a bit of an overview of Iraq's budget, how the bulk of it is generated, and what's happened to Iraqi revenues in the last two to three years?

One of the unique qualities of Iraq's budget is over 90 percent of Iraq's revenues that it generates each year come from the oil sector, so it's heavily dependent on the oil sector as the means by which it has money to spend. And when we were asked by Senators [Carl] Levin and [John] Warner to look at Iraq's budget over the last three years, and do some projections for 2008, we worked closely with the Iraqi Ministry of Finance, the Treasury Department, the IMF, to first determine how much money Iraq had in the bank, and then secondly to try to determine how much revenue they had generated in the past. And then secondly, to do some projections for 2008.

Here's basically what we found: In a nutshell, we found in the prior three years, I mean 2005 to 2007, Iraq generated about $96 billion in revenues. Most of that, again, comes from oil revenues. They spent $67 billion and that left them with a $29 billion surplus as of December 2007. So then we had actual data on revenues and expenditures for the first six months of 2008, and then we made some projections using a variety of scenarios for the last six months of 2008, to come up with some estimates of how much money Iraq could generate, how much it would spend, and how much it would have remaining in the form of a surplus. And for that, we found that in 2008, Iraq would generate between $73 billion to $86 billion in revenues, would spend about $35 billion, and end up with a surplus of between $38 billion to $50 billion. And if you add the $29 billion that they already had in the bank at the end of 2007, we were projecting that Iraq would have a surplus that's anywhere between $67 billion and $79 billion.

Your estimates for Iraqi revenues for the second half of 2008 assumed oil prices were going to be around $100 per barrel, if not more. But oil prices are dropping [they were around $64 per barrel at this time of this interview]. How then do falling oil prices affect the projection for Iraq's revenues for 2008?

We developed six scenarios [for the first] six months of 2008. And we looked at historical data and used a price range of between $97 and $125 per barrel. I think you have a very legitimate question about prices of oil going down significantly in the past three or four weeks. How does that affect our projections? The reason why we provided a range, first of all, was to take into consideration increases or decreases in the price of oil, from the highs that Iraq was receiving in July of 2008. And I think when we look at the scenarios that we put together, and I think the scenarios are in our report, right now we believe that [Iraqi revenues] would be close to the low-end of our scenarios in terms of the amount of oil revenues that Iraq would generate and subsequent surpluses as well.

But it seems like your projections are even lower than the low end.

You have to look at how much money Iraq generated when there were such high prices to begin with. When we look at the data through the end of August, for example, because of the high price of oil, even to the end of August, Iraq had $47 billion in revenue, oil revenue, that they generated. And even by the end of August, Iraq's price per barrel was averaging $112. So we're talking about just in the past three or four weeks that the prices of oil has gone down quite a bit. So if you have $47 billion already in the bank by the end of August, the State Department estimates that in September, Iraq generated $6 billion, they're going to generate $4.5 billion in October. So by the end of October, you have about $57 billion. Two more months remaining, you're pretty close to the low end of our scenario, which is $67 billion in generated oil revenues.

The Iraqi finance minister told me recently that Iraq does not have a surplus of cash. He broke down some of the numbers; pointing to $30 billion, give or take, held in the Central Bank of Iraq, which he said is used to support the Iraqi currency. Help me understand the discrepancy.

Let's talk about that $30 billion that Minister Jabr referred to. That $30 billion is money that Iraq's Central Bank sets aside to try to support its currency. Most countries do that. They have a foreign exchange reserve account that can be used should inflation go up or down so they can adjust the monetary system, put more money in or take money out of the economic system. That also is to control inflation. So that $30 billion is not, and was not, included in GAO's estimates. We took that into consideration, and we made a very important point in our report saying that we did not include that $30 billion because it would result in double counting.

Here's what sometimes the differences come down to--that is, what do you call an expenditure? When we look at an expenditure, we look at the data that is generated by the ministry of finance, and in a cash-based economy, which Iraq has, an expenditure is when the other ministries actually provide receipts to the ministry of finance to prove that they've spent money. I believe that the minister of finance and the minister of planning also have, and try to take in account, what are called commitments, or their plans to spend money. And we are not including these commitments, or intentions to spend, when we document how much money Iraq has actually spent. And I think that's where there is a difference in defining what an expenditure is, because the Iraqi government is including commitments or intentions to spend. We are not.

The suggestion from some U.S. politicians has been that Iraq has this windfall of cash that it isn't spending, while the U.S. is spending upwards of $10 billion a month in Iraq. Are these criticisms fair or accurate?

First of all, the United States does spend a lot of money in Iraq on military operations. But the United States has invested a sizable amount of money, $48 billion [since fiscal year 2003] to try to reconstruct Iraq and try to build up Iraq's security forces. When we looked at how much Iraq was contributing to security and some other critical sectors, like oil, water, and electricity, we found that the United States was spending a considerable amount of money on those critical sectors. Iraq, while it was committing money to those sectors, wasn't actually spending a lot on security, on the oil sector, the water sector, and the electricity sector.

I think you reported that between 2005 and April of 2008, Iraq spent just 14 percent of its allocations for oil, water, electricity and security? Why are they allocating money but not spending it?

I want to make a very important distinction: Iraq can spend its operating budget. An operating budget is going to salaries, wages, and goods and services that you spend in less than one year. It's the investment side of the budget that Iraq has not been spending its money on. And by investment, I mean building critical and important things that the Iraqi people want: schools, housing, medical facilities, generating more electricity, repairing the dilapidated oil infrastructure. So that part of the budget is where Iraq has not been spending a lot of its money in the past. Now, the question is why. Some of the reasons that have been cited, by Iraqi officials and U.S. officials, are that number one, there are just inherent bureaucratic problems. And Iraq does not have the kind of expertise it needs in good procurement, budgeting, and contracting issues. Secondly, there's been brain-drain in the technocrats that were once part of the Iraqi government, that are now, many of them, refugees in neighboring countries. And finally, I think some would contend that because the United States has spent $48 billion to contribute to Iraq's reconstruction and stabilization, there has been less of an incentive on the part of the Iraqi government to spend its own capital money to try to rebuild its infrastructure.

Most U.S.-based observers are focusing on troop withdrawals and the December 2008 expiration of a UN resolution authorizing the presence of foreign forces in Iraq. But the end of 2008 could also bring financial changes to Baghdad, including the end of immunity from debt repayment. What is this immunity, and what happens if it's lifted?

When the UN Security Council first passed resolutions in 2003 that established the Development Fund for Iraq, it stated that Iraq oil revenues would be protected and would remain unencumbered by any future debt that the Iraqi government would have to pay. That Security Council resolution expires in December. And so it is conceivable that after December of 2008, Iraq would have to begin [repaying] a lot of its external debt. Now, the good news is that since 2003, Iraq has received quite a bit of debt relief from the so-called Paris Club [an informal group of nineteen of the world's richest countries that assist indebted countries and creditors]. Iraq still owes money to some of its neighboring countries such as Saudi Arabia."

One thing I would like to stress is that the revenue and expenditure data that we use to base our conclusions on was data that had been audited by external sources. So, we're very comfortable and confident that the oil revenue data that we project in our report, and that we provide in our report, is data that was audited by the International Advisory and Monitoring Board, who keeps track of Iraq oil revenues. However, starting in December of 2008, a lot of oversight mechanisms are going to go by the wayside because the UN Security Council resolution that established these oversight mechanisms will no longer be in effect. For example, the Development Fund for Iraq that was established by the United Nations in 2003, the resolution expires in December of 2008. Those monies will be transferred back to the Iraqi government, and it's not clear if any kinds of audit will continue by the International Advisory and Monitoring Board. I think there is at least concern on our part that transparency that was pretty apparent in the work that we did may not be as transparent starting in January of 2009 as these external auditors from the International Advisory and Monitoring Board and the IMF no longer have the access that they currently have.

http://www.cfr.org/publication/17636...pe%3Dinterview

Barzani meets with Bush, Rice in Washington
The U.S. president welcomes Kurdistan Region President Massoud Barzani.

Iraq-U.S. security pact dominates Barzani's talks with Rice, while the Kurdistan president touched upon several topics with Bush.

President Massoud Barzani met with U.S. President George W. Bush on Wednesday in the Oval Office in Washington, D.C., with Bush giving Barzani a resounding welcome.

"It's been a while since we have seen each other, but we have talked on the phone quite frequently--and the reason why is because you've played a very instrumental part in the development of a free Iraq. And I thank you for your leadership and I thank you for your personal friendship," Bush told Kurdistan Region's president.

In an immediate release filed by the U.S. President's Office of the Press Secretary, Bush stated that he and Barzani spoke on topics including progress on the election law and on the hydrocarbon law, as well as the status of forces agreement (SOFA). "President Barzani has been a very strong advocate of the Iraqi government passing the SOFA, and I appreciate that," Bush stated.

Bush praised Barzani for his "courage and leadership." In turn, Barzani thanked the U.S. president.

It's good that there has been another opportunity for us to visit with you again. I am here to convey the gratitude of the Iraqi people in general and the people of Kurdistan, in particular, for the brave decision that you've made to rid us of this dictatorship," said Barzani.

Concerning SOFA, Barzani told the U.S. president: "...We do believe that it is in the interest of the Iraqi government; it's in the interest of this country, and we have been and we will continue to support it and support its ratification."

President Barzani also met with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Tuesday, where talks also focused on SOFA.

According to an AFP report, Barzani and Rica also engaged in discussions about the situation involving Iraq, the Kurds, and Turkey. "We discussed the positive developments that we see in the interests of both sides," Barzani said without elaborating.

According to AFP, State Department spokesman Robert Wood said Barzani and Rice also discussed how "oil-producing regions in Iraq, such as Kurdistan, could share Iraq's oil revenue, a move that has been blocked by Iraqi lawmakers for almost a year."

There is a need for Barzani "to work with the government of Iraq, within the constitutional framework, to end the stalemate in Parliament on proposed hydrocarbon legislation," Wood said. The pair also talked about the Kurdish government's support for representation for minorities in upcoming provincial elections.

Dispaly Article

Finance Minister: Iraq reduce the 2009 budget after the decline in the price of oil

Said Finance Minister Bayan Jabr on Wednesday that Iraq would take steps "painful" to reduce the budget of $ 80 billion U.S. dollars, at least ten billion to 15 billion dollars in the wake of the sharp decline of oil prices, without prejudice to the country's economic prospects.

And will review the price of oil Iraq is now established on the basis of the draft budget of 80 billion dollars for 2009 and not approved by the Parliament to $ 60 a barrel from an earlier estimate of the average $ 80 a barrel.

He told Reuters on the sidelines of a meeting with the International Monetary Fund to review the impact of the sharp decline in oil prices that Iraq faces the painful decisions to be taken in the 2009 budget due to the drop in oil prices.

He added that the talks will focus on ways to develop policies to reduce the impact of weaker oil prices in recent weeks, which threatens Iraq's troubles.

Iraq has the third-largest proven oil reserves in the world and relies on crude exports in almost all the income of hard currency.

Jabor said he is currently under discussion to reduce the size of the investment budget and the lowest possible negative impact.

He explained that the drop in oil prices could affect the country's chances in the long-term needs urgent and where inflation is still an astronomical or freezes could be delayed a planned investment projects unless they are already addressing the financial situation of the country.

He added that the continued fall in prices without taking precautionary measures could put the budget to the risks of Iraq in 2011 and 2012, it was decided to take into account the risk element of the next three years.

He said the impact of the sharp decline in the price of oil revenues that Iraq is already selling a barrel of crude oil at about $ 50 less than about $ 14 for West Texas Intermediate crude, but in some days the sale of Iraqi oil at $ 48 a barrel.

The rise of world oil prices - which peaked above $ 147 a barrel in July - has helped to improve the financial situation of Iraq.

He expressed the hope that improvement in the prices of oil, adding that Iraq under the shock to adapt to global positively to protect the economy and building a firm foundation.

In August, the United States expected high oil revenues to 79 billion dollars this year, more than double the annual average achieved by Iraq from 2005 to 2007.

Jabr expected decrease of investments in 2009 and was revised budget would seek to limit the impact on the planned projects in the sectors of oil, electricity and water are important.

The government has billions of dollars in recent years, the sectors of oil, water and electricity, but the amounts have not been spent yet. This will be the necessary funds to rebuild infrastructure and public services deteriorated sharply due to their war and years of international sanctions that preceded it.

Officials said recently that Iraq also negatively affected by a retreat of oil output and exports over the past few months. And exports declined in recent months after contact with around two million barrels per day in May, which the government attributed to poor infrastructure.

Exports fell in September to 1.64 million barrels per day, only 1.75 million bpd in August.

Translated version of http://www.iraqdirectory.com/DisplayNewsAr.aspx?id=7246

Shahristani: Iraq is not satisfied with the current oil price

Iraq's Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani, today, Thursday, he was not satisfied with the current prices of oil and that Iraq would not be allowed to land prices.

The minister said in the Jordanian capital that Iraq will maintain sufficient quantities of oil demand.

Iraq has the third-largest proven oil reserves in the world depends on oil sales to almost all its revenue in hard currency.

Oil prices have fallen to less than half the level record of 147.27 dollars per barrel reached in mid-July.

Oil rose to about $ 68 a barrel early today, Thursday, supported by the decline of the dollar and hopes to help reduce interest rates in the United States and China to the recovery of the global economy.

Translated version of http://iraqshabab.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=13264&It emid=1