Thread: Archive News - Iraqi Dinar Think Tank - 06/05/09 - 04/09/09

Turkish Foreign Minister in Baghdad to complete the talks of the Joint Supreme Committee

An official source at the Iraqi Foreign Ministry, the Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed oglu will pay a visit to Iraq next month to discuss the development of relations between the two countries in all fields.

The source said Tuesday in a statement to the reporter "Ihsanoglu will visit the bridges of confidence between Baghdad and Ankara, and the strengthening of bilateral relations and to activate the agreements signed between the parties and in particular with regard to water quotas Iraq," stressing that the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan promised that his country will adhere to the agreed quota of water with Iraq and Syria.

The source said Turkish Foreign Minister will discuss with Iraqi officials completed talks of the Joint Supreme Committee.

And Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki visited Ankara for a one-day visit during which he met with his Turkish and participated in the signing of the Convention on the establishment of a pipeline to transport natural gas from the Middle East to Europe via Turkey.

http://209.85.229.132/translate_c?hl...BKsaD5YVEfK56A

Iraq seeks Iran's co-op in oil and gas projects
Iraq eyes Iran’s cooperation for carrying out its domestic oil and gas development projects, the Iraqi deputy oil minister for exploration affairs said here on Monday.

Abdul Karim Lu'aibi, heading a delegation, in Tehran on Monday discussed energy ties with Iranian officials, particularly in the fields of conducting joint exploration and development projects, SHANA reported.

“Iraq is planning to develop 85 oil and gas fields by the next ten years,” he said and added his country seeks Iran's cooperation and expertise in this respect.

“Companies from across the globe are eager to take part in Iraq’s oil and gas development projects,"" he said, ""Thanks to their high capabilities and experience, Iranian companies can compete to carry out these projects,” he added.

“Iraq's crude output is projected to hit 3 million barrels per day in two years,"" the official said and added that the figure would increase up to 6 million barrels by the next seven years.

Oil reserves in Iraq, according to its government, rank fourth largest in the world at approximately 115 billion barrels.

As a result of war and civil unrest, these statistics have not been revised since 2001 and are largely based on 2-D seismic data from three decades ago. International geologists and consultants have estimated that unexplored territory may contain an estimated additional 45 to 100 billion barrels (bbls) of recoverable oil.

In 2006, Iraq's oil production averaged 2.0 million barrels per day, down from around 2.6 million barrels per day of production prior to the coalition invasion in 2003. Iraq's reserve to production ratio is 158 years.

http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=198767

Crisis Between Kurds and Iraqi Government Needs U.S. Mediation

Interviewee: Daniel P. Serwer, Vice President, Center for Post-Conflict Peace and Stability Operations, Centers of Innovation, United States Institute of Peace

Interviewer: Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor, CFR.org

The central Iraq government is locked in a power struggle with oil-rich, semi-autonomous Kurdistan, and many analysts believe it remains one of Iraq's most explosive touch points. A leading expert on Iraq, Daniel P. Serwer, who served as E.xecutive director of the Baker-Hamilton Commission on Iraq, says the "serious" crisis between Kurdistan and the central government "needs to be resolved" to some degree before the U.S. troops leave. And he says U.S. help in the negotiation process will be critical to progress. "With the projected withdrawal of American combat forces in 2010, it's more urgent than ever to get some sort of resolution," he says, noting that it is possible to imagine actual fighting between Kurdish and Iraqi troops if a resolution isn't forthcoming. But Serwer says that with the buildup of the Iraqi army, the balance of forces is changing against the Kurds. The Kurds are "anxious to get the Americans to stay, because the Americans help to ensure the status quo," Serwer notes. "It isn't exactly what the Kurds want, but it's better than what they might otherwise get."

A lot has been written lately about a deepening political crisis between Kurdistan and the Iraq central government over the future of places like Kirkuk, Mosul, and Diyala Province. How troubling is this, in your estimation?

I do think it's serious. It's one of the conflicts that needs to be resolved, at least to some degree, before the Americans withdraw. It's not only important to the Kurds and Arabs--it's been important for five years--but the Americans are the balancing factor between them. With the projected withdrawal of American combat forces in [August] 2010, it's more urgent than ever to get some sort of resolution.

Explain what it is the Kurds really want and what Baghdad wants.

It's clear what Baghdad wants: Baghdad wants authority over a somewhat autonomous Kurdish region. There's ambiguity as to the Kurds' objectives. Most Kurds, in the privacy of their own living rooms, would say 'why should we be part of Iraq? Why can't we be independent?' But their geopolitical situation is such that the Kurdish leadership has essentially decided to stick with Iraq, at least nominally, for the time being. The ultimate objective of the Kurds is difficult to determine. It's ambiguous whether or not most Kurds want to stay in Iraq.

The International Crisis Group just issued a major report examining the fault lines between the Iraqi federal government and the Kurdistan regional government. The ICG seems to be very concerned about violence breaking out between the two once the Americas leave. Is it hard to imagine that there could be fighting up there.

It's not all that hard to imagine. But apart from new fighting is this question of what is the balance of forces between the Kurdish forces and the Arab forces. That's changing rather dramatically with the assistance that the Americans are providing to the Iraqi army. I think the Kurds are acutely aware of the fact that their situation and leverage are not improving. They're both declining. They're anxious to get the Americans to stay, because the Americans' help to ensure the status quo. It isn't exactly what the Kurds want, but it's better than what they might otherwise get. Quite apart from independence or not, is the question of how big Kurdistan is. That's an issue because even if Kurdistan remains part of Iraq, the Kurds claim territories that lay outside the recognized boundaries of Kurdistan. This is what ICG is calling "the trigger line." The Americans play the central role of balancing these forces and ensuring that they don't come into hostile contact with each other.

When you look at the so-called trigger line, it goes down to Diyala Province and as far north as the Syrian border.

I was in Diyala recently, working with the provincial council there. On the one hand the Arabs and Kurds in the Diyala provincial council are getting on fairly well. But there really is a big question mark on the authority of Kurdistan, and not only over the territory.

How important is oil in all of this?

It's important in several different ways. Obviously, if Kurdistan has enough oil so that it can survive and maybe even thrive without the rest of Iraq makes a big difference. It also makes a big difference if the Kurds calculate that it's better to have a percentage of Iraqi oil rather than only their own. That seems to be their calculation right now. In addition to their geopolitical situation, which isn't favorable for independence, they're figuring that a percentage of all of Iraq's oil is better than only their own because they're unsure of what they have. And Iraq has a lot of oil.

To the Iraqis, is the oil in Kurdistan a major factor or is it more the political unity of the country?

I think it's more the political unity of the country. If it were purely a matter of the oil, I don't think they'd worry about it as much as they do. They feel Kurdish Iraq is part of Iraq, and they feel very strongly about that. There are Arabs who live in the north, of course, but Arab Iraqis feel the Kurds got a good deal in the constitution and they ought to be happy to stay in Iraq.

Right now under the present constitution, what privileges do the Kurds have?

Enormous privileges. They have their own parliament, their own government; they control most of the educational and cultural aspects of life in Kurdistan. Maybe more important is that they have a very significant share of power in Baghdad as well. They got a very good deal, but the problem is the constitution is at best ambiguous on some questions. The result is that the physical extent of Kurdistan, for example, wasn't really settled in the constitution. And it's not always clear what powers the Kurdistan regional government has and what powers the Baghdad government has, and who settles disputes between them is also a point of contention.

There's no supreme court to rule on this?

There is, but it's not clear whether that court could decide in favor of the Baghdad government and make it stick on many issues.

Maliki is planning a major campaign in January to emerge again as prime minister after next January's important elections to the national parliament. In an interview he had with the Wall Street Journal, he seemed to be bending over backwards to appear conciliatory. Is there great tension between him and the president of Kurdistan?

Yes, there's been great tension between Maliki and the Kurdish President Massoud Barzani. Maliki, who was originally chosen as prime minister because he appeared to be a relatively weak figure, has now become a relatively strong figure. With all of the political forces who once supported him--the Kurds, with the Shiite political parties, and the Sunni political parties--he now has the problem of returning as prime minister, which means patching up some of the quarrels he's had with these groups.

And that includes the Kurds.

It could include the Kurds. It's very unclear where the clear majority in the Iraqi parliament will come from in January. It behooves any politician who wants to become prime minister to be on good terms with as many of the political forces as possible. And there are a lot of them because there's quite a bit of fragmentation among Iraqi political parties.

What about Mosul? Is that the most dangerous area?

Right now it's the most dangerous area, partly because in the provincial elections held last January a strong Arab nationalist local political party was returned to a majority in the provincial council. There's been quite a bit of tension up there between Kurds and Arabs. Mosul is a very important city, and the geographical configuration of Kurdistan, which kind of swings around Mosul, makes things difficult as well. It's unclear how things will shake out there, but I think if you asked Americans in Iraq what the most dangerous place is [they'd say] Nineveh province, where Mosul is, or possibly Kirkuk, where tensions between Arabs and Kurds are high. That tension includes Turkmens as well.

There's been a UN commission attempting to defuse the tensions in Kirkuk. Have they done much work?

The UN has done what is reported as a lot of good work on trying to determine, district by district, what the historic and cultural roots of each individual district are. Are they more Kurdish speaking or are they more Arabic speaking [people]? They've done a good deal of that work. What they haven't done is say, "Here's the solution. Here's what you ought to do." The UN is not in a position to do that. The United Nations, in order to have much clout in this matter, needs a lot of U.S. backing. The moment for that kind of heavy hitting by the U.S. probably hasn't come yet.

In other words, when the U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003, the Kurds all moved outside the so-called green line that defined their borders.

Yes. The UN is trying to determine on a very microscopic basis who really deserves to be in control. But they're not dictating to the Baghdad government and the Kurdistan regional government what the outcome should be. They're just presenting the elements for a decision. They're going to have to get beyond that and have some very serious negotiations with the United States at some point.

And the United States up until now really hasn't sponsored any formal talks, have they?

They haven't. They've tried to leave it up to the UN. The UN has done a good job, but it can only go so far.

I noticed that Maliki says he spoke to Vice President Joseph Biden about this when Biden visited Baghdad after the first troop withdrawal from the cities. And he said Biden agreed with him that this had to be negotiated. Biden spoke by phone with Kurdish leaders. So I guess that's the start, right?

That's the start. What Biden seems to be saying so far, and I'm not privy to the private communications, is basically that they have to sort this out among themselves. Probably in the end, there will need to be a heavier American hand than that. Though the degree to which they can sort it out between themselves is the best solution.

In the ICG report, it urges the U.S. government to exercise "strong pressure on Iraqi parties and deploy political, diplomatic, military and financial resources to ensure a responsible troop withdrawal from Iraq that leaves behind a sustainable state, through a peaceful and durable accommodation of the Arab and Kurdish population." That's all great in principle, but possible?

It's great in principle. The degree to which they can come to a resolution of the territorial issue themselves is a good thing, and in the end I suspect the United States, the UN, and others will have to weigh in pretty heavily to get that. Some of the last tough issues like the center of Kirkuk still remain, which many see as compromisable, which would give it a special status

http://www.cfr.org/publication/19790...pe%3Dinterview

Iraq: Shahristani includes Majnoon oil field in the second bidding round

Iraqi Oil Minister Hussein Al-Shahristani is said to have included Majnoon oil field in the second bidding round of oil service contracts, which is expected to be held some time later this year. The following 321-word report focuses on the issue and tells whether there are Iraqi reactions to the move. It also tells whether Shahristani expects his move to affect his talks with France over the field or not.

http://tacticalreport.com/view_news/...ding_round/701

Zubeidi: Iraq's budget for 2010 expected 2.15 million barrels per day of oil exports

The Finance Minister Bayan Jabr said the budget proposed by his ministry for the year 2010 based on the expectation that the volume of oil exports 2.15 million barrels per day at 58 dollars per barrel.

Zubaidi said in a press statement on Wednesday that the budget is still just a proposal, indicating that the committee working on this matter is expected to complete its work in the next couple of weeks.

He said Iraq's oil exports amounted to 2.1 million barrels per day on average in July so far put on the road to achieving the highest monthly level since 2003.

Zubeidi added that the increase in oil revenues in addition to about two billion dollars from the fees m.obile phone companies will provide the country's supplementary budget amounting to about three billion dollars.

Zubaidi said that the supplementary budget will be between 2.8 billion and three billion dollars, but the decision is up to the Council of Ministers, which may increase or reduce the size.

http://209.85.229.132/translate_c?hl...qfSnd42pyEZxAg

U.S. Treasury Secretary vows to pursue policies to maintain the value of the dollar

Pledged U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Jaitner to adopt policies the United States to maintain the value of the dollar.

Jaitner said in a press statement during a visit to the Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Saudi Arabia said Tuesday that he had noted signs of a return of confidence to the U.S. financial sector.

He explained that the indicators of the strength of the dollar began to appear on the economy showing, "we note a great deal of activity in corporate bond issuance and a great deal of activity in the stock markets have also started appearing on the United States banking system indicators of a growing confidence.

Jaitner added that the efforts being made to contain the global financial crisis began to achieve successes and acknowledged that the United States bears a special obligation with regard to supporting the pace of economic recovery.

It should be noted that five of the six GCC states are Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, peg their currencies to the U.S. dollar while the sixth, namely Kuwait used a basket of currencies the dollar is the biggest part of it.

http://209.85.229.132/translate_c?hl...cMLi0_uJUbOaJg

Despite huge reserves, Iraq’s gas is not for export

Iraq’s natural gas reserves are the tenth largest in the world but its output hardly meets domestic needs, a senior government official said.

Ali Al-Dabagh said the government is not in a position to consider exporting its natural gas.

“We cannot make promises as far as exporting natural gas is concerned due to rising domestic needs,” Dabagh said.

Dabagh’s the remarks come following a statement by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in which he said Iraq could commit 15,000 cubic meters of natural gas for export to Europe.

“Iraq may become a good exporter of gas to Europe but there will be no exports in the foreseeable future,” Dabagh said.

Iraq’s proven natural gas reserves are estimated at 112 trillion cubic feet, 70% of which lie in the southern Province of Basra.

Probable reserves have been estimated at 275-300 trillion cubic feet.

http://www.azzaman.com/english/index...07-15\kurd.htm

Oil: No date was set to announce the second licensing round

Oil Ministry confirmed the absence of a date for the declaration of the second licensing round for oil contracts so far, rejecting criticism from some quarters of the first round.

The spokesman said the information ministry in the Assem Jihad told the independent press (Iba) said Tuesday that news of a date for the launch of the second licensing round for oil contracts is not correct, and will in the future.

He added that preparations for the second round came in the context of seeking to develop oil fields in Iraq and the general increase in production, especially since many of them suffer from many problems.

The Jihad, the ministry has identified 11 fields in the second round of contracts and one gas field. Referring to the second session of licenses include oil and gas fields, some of which are now operating under the pilot production.

It should be pointed out that the discovered undeveloped fields in relation to the large reserves which they are contained.

http://209.85.229.132/translate_c?hl...rB55vsWxqbj5Xg

Advisor: Ministry of Finance and the launch of the supplementary budget to the provinces at this time a late step

Adviser in Baghdad said the development project launched by the Ministry of Finance of the supplementary budget to the provinces, after the second half of this year will not serve the governorates on the one hand the implementation of projects and economic programs during the time periods specified, returned the plan to " "late.

Said Dr. Tha'ir Alfeli told the independent press (Iba) said Wednesday that the launch of the investment and operational expenditure within the supplementary budget at this time of the provinces will not be responsible for the completion of projects, a problem that must be addressed in future.

He Alfeli to the decline in oil prices globally and its impact on the budget have had a negative impact on the reality of the Iraqi economy and led to the end of important projects. Calling for the resumption of work projects and service programs and development ceased.

He Alfeli that the role of administrative corruption on the ground service and is a reason to delay the implementation of projects.

The Finance Ministry had prepared a draft supplementary budget, which includes the provinces suffer from a lack of allocations in the budget, a result of the reduction in 2009 for the first two by the Council of Ministers and the reduction of the second before the House of Representatives as well as lower oil prices and export quantities.

The budget includes the allocation of supplementary funds for the Electoral Commission to facilitate the procedures and requirements to provide the elections to be held beginning in 2010, in addition to the allocations for emergency drinking water projects and the large allocations to the Ministry of Electricity, in addition to the PROFILE project Rusafa water prepared by the Secretariat of Baghdad.

It is noted that the draft of the supplementary budget will be presented to the Cabinet and then sent to the House of Representatives for approval and then sent to the governing body for approval and published in the Official Gazette in order to direct the Ministry of Finance and fired the amounts allocated to the provinces.

http://209.85.229.132/translate_c?hl...xjLuUVj1mVRPUA

CBI ceases dollar sales on July 14th holiday

The central Bank of Iraq (CBI) on Tuesday ceased its dollar sales, celebrating the July14th revolution day, announced by the Iraqi government an official holiday.

“The CBI decided to cease the dollar sales on the occasion of July 14th holiday,” a source from the CBI said, noting the session will be resumed as of Wednesday (July 15).

http://en.aswataliraq.info/?p=116095


Dollar sales increase to $191m on Wednesday

Demand for the dollar increased in the Central Bank of Iraq’s (CBI) auction on Wednesday, reaching $191.405 million compared to $170.880 million in the previous session.

“The demand hit $15.800 million in cash, covered by the bank at an exchange rate of 1,183 Iraqi dinars, and 176.605 million in foreign transfers outside the country, covered at an exchange rate of 1,173 Iraqi dinars per dollar,” according to a CBI news bulletin received by Aswat al-Iraq news agency.

None of the 15 banks that participated in today’s session offered to sell dollars.


http://en.aswataliraq.info/?p=116119