Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Although oil is a huge part of the Iraq economy, they need foreign investment and expertise in order to build Iraq as a whole, telecommunications, businesses, property etc. etc. etc.

Going back to the oil matter, I believe they only have one or two refineries in country, they need more. They are currently exporting the oil then buying it back in its refined state from neighbouring countries (I think mostly Jordan from memory). Not good business. All these things are in need of investment from exterior sources. Without the FIL and hydrocarbon laws in place and active they will not get big investment, without a RV'd currency they would be selling their country for peanuts. MO hope it helps.

Originally Posted by clintstella

Hey mate,

Just had a thought, what is the likley hood of RV'ing below that of Saudi and Jordan? Wouldn't they want some sort of consession to gain some of the forgiven debt back? Another reason for Saudi to be the last to forgive the debt, they want to know what they will be getting out of the RV?

Thoughts that's all.

Matey,

The debt wouldn't be forgiven by these Arab countries IF they didn't think they'd be getting a huge deal out of it. They know a r/v will happen. There is no love lost between Saudi's and Iraq and nothing is done for the love of another country!

Great post from Ward on AD forum whom I'm sure won't mind me posting here, read and digest. Don't be down when rumour dates come and go......


You know folks as hard as it is to imagine such numbers always keep in mind what the historical levels of this nation were.

This is definitely a once in a lifetime opportunity. Whether we understand all the mechanisms as how is not terribly important but this recent transcript clearly declares Iraq’s intent.

The MOF says, “Monetary value of the Iraqi dinar must revert to the previous level, or at least to acceptable levels as it is in the Iraqi neighboring states. It seems that the state insists, or preserve the value of the Iraqi dinar 148 against the dollar.”
Here is the July remarks of the same MOF:

“the new Minister of Finance and several pieces, which a few days ago that the Iraqi dinar equivalent of net or gross and a half and three zeros from Baht example, the price of one dollar dinars 480 fils after the one thousand and 480 dinars.”
These are not speculation anymore this the value Iraq desires, a level that reverts to the former level.

Look at this bit of information from the US government concerning the worth of the Dinar:

In 1982 Iraq devalued the dinar by 5 percent, to a value equal to US$3.22, and sustained this official exchange rate without additional devaluation despite mounting debt. In early 1988, the official dinar-dollar exchange rate was still ID1 to US$3.22; however, with estimates of the nation's inflation rate ranging from 25 percent to 50 percent per year in 1985 and 1986, the dinar's real transaction value, or black market exchange rate, was far lower-- only about half the 1986 official rate.

So when you consider the estimated real worth, which the US Government says was half the published rate you have a figure that is around $1.60, which is right in the range of the Iraqi transcript reveals.

True there are some published articles naming figures, which might be the authors conclusions perhaps, however the difference here is that these articles come from official the sources.

There is one point that leaves a little wiggle room here though and that is this remark by the MOF: “or at least to acceptable levels as it is in the Iraqi neighboring states.” That said, the acceptable level still needs to be in the ballpark of the former level.

I think this is a pretty compelling case, even if some find it hard to accept. I think the problem for some is the idea that they in essence have an Iraqi lottery ticket and really don’t expect to win.

Nothing could be further from the truth. We are all going to win big time.

After reading these documents I am convinced that the rate will be high. By high I mean to say over a dollar. Yet I'm sure we will have no complaints for 1.48......After all they do seem insistent don't they?

Originally Posted by opps50

OK, then I don´t see why there is such a rush in revaluing the dinar and getting the FIL done.

They are exporting oil anyway so that is not dependent on the dinar

All about buying power, at a rate of 1460 they have to spend that amount to the dollar for everything they import costing them a fortune. For them to be back in the world markets they need to be able to compete and import goods to help rebuild their economy. Electronics, goods, buidling materials etc, with a r/v rate of say 1:1 they're not getting ripped off for everything they buy/import. Healthier economy means jobs, improved security, lower inflation and a happier nation with money in their pockets.

Think about it, the current rate is artificial, they have the second biggest oil reserves in the world making them potentially one of the richest. Do you think it makes sense for them to sell off their country at their current pathetic rate?

We know the MOF has said he wants to give the people something back, and we also know he said parity as before or similar to neighbouring countries.

Don't lose that winning lottery ticket. :0)

Thanks mate, Wardy DaMan.

Concise and well commented on. It's great when you read it like that without all the lost in translation shite.

Originally Posted by Adster

Great post from Ward on AD forum whom I'm sure won't mind me posting here, read and digest. Don't be down when rumour dates come and go......


You know folks as hard as it is to imagine such numbers always keep in mind what the historical levels of this nation were.

This is definitely a once in a lifetime opportunity. Whether we understand all the mechanisms as how is not terribly important but this recent transcript clearly declares Iraq’s intent.

The MOF says, “Monetary value of the Iraqi dinar must revert to the previous level, or at least to acceptable levels as it is in the Iraqi neighboring states. It seems that the state insists, or preserve the value of the Iraqi dinar 148 against the dollar.”
Here is the July remarks of the same MOF:

“the new Minister of Finance and several pieces, which a few days ago that the Iraqi dinar equivalent of net or gross and a half and three zeros from Baht example, the price of one dollar dinars 480 fils after the one thousand and 480 dinars.”
These are not speculation anymore this the value Iraq desires, a level that reverts to the former level.

Look at this bit of information from the US government concerning the worth of the Dinar:

In 1982 Iraq devalued the dinar by 5 percent, to a value equal to US$3.22, and sustained this official exchange rate without additional devaluation despite mounting debt. In early 1988, the official dinar-dollar exchange rate was still ID1 to US$3.22; however, with estimates of the nation's inflation rate ranging from 25 percent to 50 percent per year in 1985 and 1986, the dinar's real transaction value, or black market exchange rate, was far lower-- only about half the 1986 official rate.

So when you consider the estimated real worth, which the US Government says was half the published rate you have a figure that is around $1.60, which is right in the range of the Iraqi transcript reveals.

True there are some published articles naming figures, which might be the authors conclusions perhaps, however the difference here is that these articles come from official the sources.

There is one point that leaves a little wiggle room here though and that is this remark by the MOF: “or at least to acceptable levels as it is in the Iraqi neighboring states.” That said, the acceptable level still needs to be in the ballpark of the former level.

I think this is a pretty compelling case, even if some find it hard to accept. I think the problem for some is the idea that they in essence have an Iraqi lottery ticket and really don’t expect to win.

Nothing could be further from the truth. We are all going to win big time.

After reading these documents I am convinced that the rate will be high. By high I mean to say over a dollar. Yet I'm sure we will have no complaints for 1.48......After all they do seem insistent don't they?

I couldn't agree more!!!!

It's just that darn waiting part that's driving me crazy.............

Yea, he's a good lad, enjoy his posts, thinks on similar lines. Still gonna whip his ass in the Dinar golf Cup post r/v! Notice he's on here having a read, lol.

Have a read of this....


Iraq Welcomes China to Manage Vast Oil Resources
Iraq could hand China the first foreign contract to develop its vast oil resources, if Beijing agrees to put into effect a deal originally signed with Saddam Hussein, Iraq's Oil Ministry said yesterday.

While U.S. oil majors, excluded from Iraq before the U.S. invasion in 2003, wait for Iraq to pass new laws on the sector before investing, Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani will visit China, Japan and Australia shortly to discuss projects and developing exports, ministry spokesman Asim Jihad said.

Iraqi oil officials have previously said they believe China will agree to develop the 90,000-barrel-a-day (b/d) Ahdab field in south central Iraq as the first project since the war.

The field, with an estimated development cost of $700-million (U.S.), was awarded to China National Petroleum Corp. and Chinese state arms manufacturer Norinco by Mr. Hussein.

News of Neftegaz.ru

The field, with an estimated development cost of $700-million (U.S.), was awarded to China National Petroleum Corp. and Chinese state arms manufacturer Norinco by Mr. Hussein.


That's an lot of dinar at the current rate, don't you think?

Originally Posted by clintstella

The field, with an estimated development cost of $700-million (U.S.), was awarded to China National Petroleum Corp. and Chinese state arms manufacturer Norinco by Mr. Hussein.


That's an lot of dinar at the current rate, don't you think?

Oh yes, similar to the 10 million dinar that's been awarded for Sports and Youth rebuilding. Amounts to about $7500, not even build a decent shed for that, lol.

Makes ya think that all these amounts that are now appearing are amounts that have taken in a r/v into their thinking/working out.

Originally Posted by Adster

Oh yes, similar to the 10 million dinar that's been awarded for Sports and Youth rebuilding. Amounts to about $7500, not even build a decent shed for that, lol.

Makes ya think that all these amounts that are now appearing are amounts that have taken in a r/v into their thinking/working out.

Valid point Adster! You couldn't buy a large tent for $7500 usd much less a building with steel and concrete.