I like your thinking here. Terrific!!!!
Nice to hear OSW let slip next week for a r/v. I've never known Mike to give out a time frame, it's always been 'soon' so this speaks volumes. I have a lot of time for Mike. :0)
Just looking around other forums, the general feeling is very positive at this stage, and so it should be with the imminent FIL next week, Rice's visit to kick some butts, the soon to be US Elections, rising inflation in Iraq, the handouts for their people etc.....
I also feel the FIL will have Mrs and I cracking open the bubbly and I'll have the biggest, fattest cigar I can purchase. The FIL, which comes with a fully convertible currency is if anything more important than a r/v, WHY? Because it is the r/v effectively! With the FIL comes new business, new companies, new individuals, pumping billions into the Iraqi economy including the Forex. That in itself will force the exchange rate up and make it so so so much stronger.
Imagine a game of Monopoly for a moment. In the UK the properties at the start are ones like Old Kent Road, Angel, we passed those at the start of the year with the SBA. Then we moved round to Vine Street around the middle of the year when a whole lotta debt was forgiven. Then onto Oxford Street with the Kurds FIL being passed in the summer and increased security around Baghdad resulting in fallen insurgencies.
Now we're at Mayfair, with the FIL being passed this week, we will be crossing the line and collecting not 200 quid, but a whole lot more.....
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08-10-2006, 03:18 PM #12131
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08-10-2006, 04:08 PM #12132
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Iraqi Investments Club
Interesting,
Yes, so many meetings, so much pressure, and yes, elections in U.S. means Whitehouse wants something to crow about, and this is why Rice was sent, and now we see meetings after meetings, and this is the result of the private ultimate time frame to get it done, no more bickering, and this is what we all want.
Thinking back over all this data we have seen, look at it this way. Dividing into three sections was never mentioned before Barzani started the issue on flag of Iraq. Remember all the resistance in Baghdad? Wow, a firestorm was started, then in days, a reversal, why? The whole point here is that the Kurds have proven that economic success was possible even under the control of Saddam, so it only makes sense that seperation into regions IS the right strategy, so I endorse it knowing a little bit about how Iraqi's think.
We have read opinions on all issues, but what we now see are concessions and they have all been coming from Kurds. Interesting, and why wouldn't Maliki listen to Barzani's clan? They have proven they know how to run a country, for this is how they look at it, and they have made no effort to hide the fact that they want nothing to do with Baghdad and the band of i*d*i*o*t*s in parliament. Why do you think the FIL was drafted by the Kurd's, and adopted before Baghdad even started talking about it. It is so obvious that the only smart economics experts are Kurds, so Maliki better listen, and Rice has so much as said the same thing.
I simply read between the lines having researched this for what seems like a lifetime, and the conclusion I see is to divide up the regions into three, all under one constitution, but give the people of the main sects a home where there will be no killing, end of story. With Shiites and Sunni killing each other daily, and little chance this will ever stop totally, it is time to make the divisions for safety reasons, to insure a reasonable peace, and this is why we are hearing it being seriously considered now. Baghdad is starting to see the light, and now that the division of oil profits is assured, it will be done.
Simply put, people will be able to move within their own sectarian region and will still share in oil revenues, which was the only reason this stand off between the two has gone on so long. Hell, anyone with half a brain can see what it was always about, oil money. The insurgents knew this, and that is why they fueled the fire, but why didn't Baghdad know it? Back to the brain dead who were put in these minister and cabinet positions just to ratify constitution, now it is time to clean out all these illiterates and get on with what will work, division, under one consitution, simple.
For those is U.S., we can look at it in terms of South and North, the same crap went on from the start, and still goes on for many, so what we have is a solution of choice, most people who live in the south would never think to move to north, and many in north think the same of the south, so why would the government force what is not natural? This is the same thing going on in Iraq, you cannot force people to live with those they hate, so divide them, and the problem is solved. Let the people live where they want, not where the gov. wants.
As in U.S., we want to keep the gov. out of our personal lives, and if you don't want to believe this, then put it up for national vote and you will see the light. The same is true in Iraq, now that the have democracy, then put it up for vote on the division issue. I assure you, the vote will be to divide, and then the Shiite, Sunni and Kurds can get on with rebuilding the economy. Now that we hear this in reports, it was always the sticking point, so yes, I now think the revalue will happen, so we are all at the right place at the right time, so be thankful for all the efforts of the great people on this forum who have brought all the pieces of this puzzle in clear view. Sure has been an intersting journey, and an even better destination. (g) Just my opinion.
Good luck to all, Mike
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08-10-2006, 04:43 PM #12133
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OSW, I went back to the Latest news#4 and read all the articles again on the Kurds, Federalism and oil etc. Got a different view then from the first read. I feel better and as always, you are so great at putting things in perspective. I am not as stressed as I have been about the r/v. Love for it to happen this week but I also want everything to be in order and done right. Thanks again for steadying words.
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08-10-2006, 05:13 PM #12134
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This Dinar is getting an addiction but a once in a life time ride. Don't want to miss it.
I like this forum, everybody is working as a team.
Thank to all of you for that.
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08-10-2006, 05:16 PM #12135
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Just heard on MSNBC that the division of Iraq is being considered. A poll indicates that most Iraqis are against it. Their thought is it will surely bring civil war to their country. But there is a study currently being conducted out of Washington DC, a member of which is James Baker, a hardball Republican player. Accordingly, it now appears that the division is being very SERIOUSLY considered as the only way to bring long lasting and fast peace to Iraq. It seems the US polls show 66% of the USA feel we were deceived into this war...and the only way to get this upcoming election back in the Republican court is to bring realization of peace and prosperity to the country NOW. So in conjuction with a country division into three parts to end most of the violence, a r/v would give the big economical boost. IMHO this indicates an up and coming October to be celebrated by the people of Iraq and ROLCULB!!
Last edited by ccgideon; 08-10-2006 at 05:22 PM. Reason: misspel
Behold the turtle-he makes progress only when he sticks his neck out
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08-10-2006, 05:31 PM #12136
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Why do we have 50 States?
Thanks, Mike. How would this be any different then America having 50 different states? Each has it's own govenor, legislature, laws, etc. But under one flag and one President. The states manage their own territory and send representatives to congress. We are the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA but divided into 50 states that manage themselves and are acountable to Washington. I don't see the difference with Iraqi...wouldn't that still be democaratic?
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08-10-2006, 05:39 PM #12137
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Great Post Offshore!
The way as I read it, it was al a plan. The Kurds with the brains and less violence had the task to make the FIL and Hydrocarbon Law. They made it and the Government followed their steps immediately.
Now everything is coming to an end and like you set, concessions are being made by the Kurds, like revenue sharing. Very interesting.
One thing is sure. Condi was there to kick their ass to pass the Hydrocarbon Law. I read in a article that in October the Kurdistan Hydrocarbon will be passed. Then I bumped into the Daily Pressing Brief of Washington of the 6th of October.
I quote the important piece:
"MR. CASEY: I don’t think I have a lot to add. I think their comments speak for themselves. Obviously, as the Secretary said, we continue to push for a unified Iraq. We want all parties in the country to be able to work together for the benefit of everyone. And I think as we've made clear repeatedly and as is called for in the hydrocarbon law that the Iraqi parliament is now considering, we believe that Iraq's oil resources should be used for the benefit of all the people of Iraq."
Link: Daily Press Briefing -- October 6
Well, more and more I get the idea that they want to pass everything before they set the exchange rate and I think they do it all in October. Just my opinion.Last edited by kiko; 08-10-2006 at 05:42 PM.
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08-10-2006, 05:43 PM #12138
i am afraid there is one potenially big difference. this proposed spit in iraq is also largely based on culture and religion. it may well be the best short term solution but IMO it will allow the underlying problems to continue and even get worse.
history seems to show that segregation / apartitide does not work.
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08-10-2006, 05:43 PM #12139
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> Maliki: Anbar would enjoy security, major reconstruction boom
>
> October 08, 2006
> The Prime Minister initiated a conference of tribes' leaders from the Anbar
stressing that the providence would delight in security within 2 months.
Meanwhile the tribes' leaders stressed going on efforts to return security
stability and reconstruction and they assumed to prepare legal enviorment and
provide reconciliation project and fight all kinds of sectarianism.
> In the mean time Anbar Deliverance Council prepares to hold conference to
Anbar tribes' leaders in Ramadi during next few days, said well informed source.
>
> He added the conference would discuss secure safety in Anbar. On the other
hand, security services in Babil declared state of alert preparing to face
escaping terrorist groups from Ramadi to northern areas of the
Babylon.(Source)Alsabah
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08-10-2006, 05:44 PM #12140
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Iraq Oil Ministry Ready to Invest Fields
>
> October 08, 2006
> Oil ministry tends to start investing oil and gas fields in general parts of
the state at the beginning of the coming year 2007 after certificating oil and
gas decision.
> The ministry stressed on necessity to deal with information in a crystallized
way through media to be clear for the residents.
>
> On the other hand, oil installations protection force had stopped 20
containers were prepared for smuggling in order to be sold the production in the
black market.
>
> Oil minister Dr. Hussein al-Shihrastani said that the ministry tends to
investing all gas and oil fields in the different districts of the state since
it contains large quantities of these materials by the next year.
(Source)AlSabah
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