Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

To Make Iraqi oil a blessing and not a curse
October 11, 2006

The bulletin issued by the Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Researches confirmed, according to Salih, that this law will allow all Iraqis to share in the incomings of oil wealth through a special fund in Baghdad to be distributed equally to the different governorates, according to the number of population, taking into account the injustice inflicted upon some governorates by the regime of Saddam Hussein.


The editorial stated that what it is more important is that these statements of the Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister came at a time in which the President of the Kurdistan Massoud Barzani said, during a press conference with American Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice during her visit to Iraq, that he supported the equitable distribution of oil revenues to Iraqis.


It added that the controversy over the distribution of oil revenues forms a major part of many serious and ongoing disputes on the Iraqi arena since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, like the relationship between Shiites and Sunnis or between Kurds and other Iraqis as well as other disputes that prevail over the political attitudes of some Iraqi forces.


It went on to say that oil is particularly concentrated in the northern provinces of the Kurdish and the southern of the majority Shiite, which led to the concern of the Sunnis who have been stationed in the middle of being deprived of the oil revenues through the draft or federal territories and that is why they strongly oppose federalism. The way oil and its resources are exploited is one of the main causes of tension between the Kurds and the Iraqi government that refuses some aspects of the Kurdish independence in dealing with this issue.


It considered that one of the most important principles and foundations of the unified State, where all Iraqis agreed to live together, is that its different resources are the property of all Iraqis and their shares in it are determined according to objective considerations mandated by a central administration and not according to geographical, ethnic or sectarian considerations.


It believed that to make oil a factor for unification and not divisive or conflict, a blessing and not a curse, each Iraqi citizen must feel as a partner in its resources which are distributed fairly and objectively in various governorates, regardless of the fact that it is an oil province or not.


The editorial concluded that oil is at the core of people's lives. If disputes over it are not settled, it could evolve seriously because it concerns a fundamental wealth that everyone finds it his right to participate in and enjoy its returns, especially after decades of squandering this wealth in a losing adventures during the time of the ex-regime. (Source)AlBayan

GCC unlikely to shift cash reserves from dollar


10 October 2006
Dubai: Oil-producing GCC countries, which hold most of their currency reserves in dollars, are unlikely to move away from the greenback since the US remains the world's deepest investment market.


Mohsin S Khan, director for the Middle East and Central Asia department at the International Monetary Fund, told Gulf News GCC countries generate hundreds of billion of dollars in revenues from oil sales and these can most easily be placed in the US.


"It is good to diversify to your holdings but there are few markets outside the US that can take that volume of dollar inflows. The US can easily absorb hundreds of billion of dollars without any impact," Khan said. "Some of the European markets may not."


The UAE, which holds some $23.5 billion in reserves, has said it plans to convert 10 per cent of that into Euros but has not indicated when it would make that switch.


The fall of the dollar versus other currencies has also led to speculation that other central banks will switch some of their dollar holdings to other currencies.Khan said it was also important to consider where the big GCC investment companies like the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and the Kuwait Investment Authority invest.


"At the moment there is no evidence of the central banks and the investment institutions are moving out of dollars and I don't see them moving away (from dollar assets)," Khan said.


He said there were advantages to the GCC governments' policy of pegging their currencies to the dollar although it did lead to a loss in the central bank's independence in following its own monetary policy.

By Arif Sharif

© Gulf News 2006

Article originally published by Gulf News 10-Oct-06

Arab investors snap up $15bn of real estate globally this year


10 October 2006
Driven by record levels of oil and gas revenues, Middle Eastern investors will pump up to $15 billion (Dh55bn) into buying commercial real estate, including hospitality properties, outside their own region this year, an industry executive estimated yesterday.

In the first half of 2006, the region bought commercial property worth an estimated $6bn (Dh22.02bn) in North America and Europe, a Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) report said yesterday.


Office investments dominated, although significant sums also went into hotels and retail spaces.


Almost half of total Middle East investment went into NewYork City, the report said.


The region's total interregional investments in the whole of 2005 stood at $9.9bn (Dh36.33bn).


"Organizations such as Jumeirah, Kingdom and Istithmar, have shown strong appetite for properties in the West. But we expect to see significant movement into Asia later this year and in the first half of 2007," said Blair Hagkull, Managing Director of JLL in the Middle East.


Oil and gas revenues in the Middle East are estimated at more than $320bn (Dh1.17 trillion) per annum.


A lot of this money, analysts say, has been invested in local equity markets, which have risen between 200 and 1,000 per cent in the past four years alone.


Of the Middle East's estimated $1tr (Dh3.67tr) worth of foreign assets, about $70bn (Dh256.9bn) has gone into US treasury investments.




Acquisitions, such as Madame Tussauds, Fairmont Hotels, P&O, and Ferrari, as well as direct real estate investment in the Americas and Europe account for the rest.


According to JLL's Global Real Estate Capital Report, Record Volumes, Record Globalisation, direct real estate investment totalled $290bn (Dh1.3tr) in the first half of 2006, up 30 per cent on the first half of 2005.


According to the report, 2006 is on target to be another record year as total transactions approach $600bn (Dh2.20bn). "On a per capita basis, the amount of Middle East investment is significant, probably the highest in the world," Hagkull said.


"Historically, this investment has gone into Europe. This year, North America and Asia will see more movement," he added.


Tony Horrell, CEO of the International Capital Group at JLL, said: "Dubai has emerged as one of the leading players in the real estate market across the world.


"We believe the Mena region has the potential to play an enhanced role in global markets," he added.

By Yazad Darasha

© Emirates Today 2006

Article originally published by Emirates Today 10-Oct-06

Competition Brewing



As Starbucks sets to open in Cairo and Alexandria, existing high-end coffeehouse chains attempt to consolidate their share of the market.


Few companies are as venerated, or vilified, as Starbucks. The world's leading coffee brand and retailer has grown from a single store in Seattle in 1971 to a global empire with nearly 12,000 locations in 37 countries serving over 2 billion customers per year.

An icon of globalization, Starbucks succeeded not by creating a better coffee even diehard Starbucks fans admit there are better blends out there - but by creating a lifestyle. The company changed the way people think of coffee, turning the lowly coffeehouse into a chic and inviting hangout with an ample dose of snobbery. In doing so, it transformed a pedestrian commodity into a luxury accessory.

Until now, Egyptians' only true encounter with Starbucks has been during trips abroad. No longer. Kuwait's M.H. Alshaya, which holds the franchise rights for Starbucks in the Middle East and operates nearly 200 Starbucks in nine countries in the region, is expected to open its first Egyptian Starbucks outlet in Cairo's Citystars mall by the end of the month. While Starbucks declined repeated requests for interviews, informed sources tell Business Monthly that the company will also soon open a branch in Alexandria and plans to open 22 branches nationwide by the end of 2007.

Starbucks is rumored to have made an initial attempt to enter the Egyptian market in 2005 with a bid to acquire Delicious Inc., which owns and operates the popular Cilantro chain of cafés. If successful, Starbucks would not only have landed itself Cilantro's high traffic outlets - which it would have rebranded as its own - it would have also liquidated what many deemed at the time to be its only real competitor. The deal fell through, the rumor continues, when the owners of Delicious Inc. rebuffed Starbucks' bid and instead agreed to sell the chain to local business tycoon Hesham El-Sewedy for LE 40 million.

The failed bid may have cost Starbucks dearly. In the year since, Cilantro has expanded from 12 outlets to 23, and broadened its range of products. Other chains, such as Beano's and Costa Coffee, have also experienced robust growth, reinventing themselves to serve a wider customer base. Meanwhile, foreign competitors, including Columbus Coffee and, most recently, The Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf, have established a foothold in the market.

"If Starbucks had come into the market two years ago I think it would have had a better chance [to capture market share]," says Engy Radwan, marketing manager of The Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf. She says Starbucks may still be a formidable opponent, but its late start means Egyptians have more options available. The coffee giant's ascendancy is by no means certain. "It will all depend on what they serve, because if someone else comes into the market with better products and better prices they will automatically win the edge."

Cilantro, which claims to hold a 75-percent share of the high-end coffeehouse market, is the undisputed current market champion. The chain has expanded aggressively, doubling its operation size in the last 12 months and showing no signs of slowing down. "We want to be everywhere," asserts Ibrahim Roushdy, the company's development and operations manager. "Right now, we have [23] cafés in Cairo and Alexandria, and very soon we will be in Sharm Al Shiekh."

Sami El Meligy, vice president of El Sewedy Industries, dismisses the suggestion that Cilantro's expansion drive was designed specifically to head off the imminent threat of Starbucks' arrival. Instead, he says the company is attempting to consolidate its lead before its fast-growing competitors can catch up. "We did not initiate this expansion plan just for the opening of Starbucks," he told Business Monthly. "This is the way we are competing with all players in the market."

Beano's, a local brand with 11 branches in Cairo and Alexandria, is also in the midst of an aggressive expansion strategy. The company recently opened a branch in Mohandiseen and is planning to add up to seven branches by the end of the year. "Currently, we have two outlets under construction in Maadi and after Ramadan we plan to open a huge branch in Citystars mall," says Sahar Abdel Nabi, the company's marketing manager.

Meanwhile, Costa Coffee, a UK-based Italian-style coffee roaster and coffeehouse chain, is reporting robust growth. Americana, the Kuwaiti-Egyptian food holding company that holds the franchise in Egypt, has opened 13 Costa Coffee outlets in Cairo and Alexandria since entering the local market in 2004. The chain initially focused on less trafficked areas, giving customers a more relaxed atmosphere, but recently began opening branches in busy districts, in some cases next door to competing outfits.


Bean there done that
The advent of Cilantro in 2000 paved the way for a more sophisticated coffee culture in Egypt. Previously, coffee drinking was the pastime of working-class Egyptian men, who frequented the ubiquitous ahwa (traditional coffeehouse). A few upmarket establishments, such as Coffee Roastery and Cafe Greco, introduced the idea of Italian-style espresso drinks, but it was Cilantro that tapped into coffee as a lifestyle choice. It wasn't what you drank that was important, but where you drank it. And, more women felt welcome. "We created an atmosphere where upper class people felt comfortable, while giving women the chance to go out more often by offering them a decent setting," explains El Meligy.

Today, dozens of gourmet coffeehouses have cropped up in Cairo and Alexandria. Ahmed Kamal, manager of the Costa Coffee chain, argues the market has not yet reached its saturation point. "This is still a virgin sector, which has the potential for 70 to 80 percent further growth; so there's plenty of room for others."

And others are coming. Last month marked the entry of The Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf, a Los Angeles-based purveyor of gourmet blended coffee and tea drinks with over 300 branches in the southwestern United States, Middle East and Far East. The company is a seasoned competitor of Starbucks, going head to head with the coffee giant in key markets. "In some countries, such as the UAE... Starbucks intentionally opens on the same street just to compete with us and vice versa," says Radwan.

Local investor Omar Islam Shalaby, owner of Trianon cafés, acquired the license for the Egypt franchise in late 2003 but it has taken over two years to get the first Zamalek branch up and running. "The reason we took so much time is because everything you see in this store is imported, from the retail mugs to the decoration on the walls," explains Radwan.

However, by opening ahead of Starbucks, "The Bean" has gotten the jump on its arch nemesis. "Opening before Starbucks has put us ahead in terms of understanding the market and customers' needs, as well as setting prices," explains Radwan.

Conversely, The Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf will serve as a litmus test for the market's sensitivity to pricing.

Ounce per ounce, its blended coffee and tea drinks are among the most expensive in the market, with some medium-sized coffee drinks ringing in at over LE 20, more than the daily wage for most Egyptians. Radwan explains that the prices reflect the higher quality of the imported coffee and tea ingredients. "Our prices are marginally higher than those of other cafés since we offer more in terms of variety and quality," she says.

The 40-percent tariff on coffee and tea imports inflates the cost of the end product, she continues. Yet, judging by the unrelenting crowds at its new Zamalek outlet, the price has not discouraged patrons many of whom claim to be ardent converts from other coffeehouse chains. "At first, we were afraid that our prices would be too high, but after we did our calculations we found out that we are more or less within the range of the market, though a bit higher. This is accepted because we are an international brand," she says, stressing that the company is testing the market's response to its pricing and will review its pricing strategy in three months. "We're always open to adjustments if we find that it's necessary."

Starbucks will undoubtedly face similar scrutiny if it applies, as many expect, prices comparable to those of its US branches which could put its medium sized blended coffee drinks in the LE 20-25 range. Similar drinks at smaller local chains cost about LE 10-15. "If they fail to adapt to the market's standard prices and our benchmark they will soon fall out of business," Radwan warns.

Kamal agrees. "I don't think that Starbucks will succeed if their prices are set too high, because coffee is a habit," he says. "People like to go for coffee more than once a week, so if the price is too high people will go less frequently."

Starbucks will inevitably attract an initial rush of interest, but unless its prices are affordable it could be a flash in the pan, says Kamal. He explains that Egyptians by nature flock to new restaurant and cafe openings irrespective of price, but are just as quick to shift allegiances if the price and quality do not meet their expectations. "It's true that Starbucks will get a lot of attention when it opens as people will be excited about going there, but when [its novelty wears off], if prices remain high after a year's time, no one will go there anymore," he predicts.

Industry insiders suggest Columbus Cafe, a French coffee franchise with one outlet in Dokki, serves as a good example of how high prices can discourage regular patronage. While the highly visible coffeehouse garnered a lot of attention when it opened in late 2004, this interest soon waned amid complaints of exorbitant prices and a less than phenomenal ambiance to back them. "Some chains obviously didn't do their homework; that's why they have failed to attract customers," says Abdel Nabi.

Columbus is rumored to have scrapped its expansion plans as a result of the public's tepid response a rumor branch manager Hatem Helmy flatly denies. "It was part of our strategy since the beginning to study the market [first] and then start expanding to other areas. So far, I can say that we are doing very well and have regular customers," he says, adding that the company will open a second branch in Nasr City by the end of the year.

Already, Columbus has experimented with seasonal outlets, including a café in Marina and a drive-thru on the Cairo-Alexandria Desert Road, which operated during the busy summer months this year. "We got a lot of positive feedback from the café we opened in Marina, and people were looking forward to coming back to [visit our] Cairo branch, but we faced problems there mainly related to the logistics of getting the food there," says Helmy.

The drive-thru, on the other hand, failed to meet expectations. While drive-thru espresso stands are all the rage in North America, the concept has not yet carried over to Egypt, suggests Kamal. "People here are still unfamiliar with the whole take-away coffee concept, so creating a drive-thru for coffee will not catch on very easily," he says.

In the meantime, Columbus is undergoing changes to revamp its menu and café design. "We are still working on ways to make the store more appealing in terms of appearance, [because] over the past year we have been more concerned with the quality of our coffee," says Helmy.


Bean countries
Coffee is the world's second most popular drink after water, consumed at a rate of 400 billion cups per year.

The $60 billion world coffee industry employs about 100 million people, who provide the 7 million tons of coffee needed to fill those cups.


Special blend
To the casual observer, Egypt's upscale coffeehouses are more or less the same. Their marketing departments, however, are working hard to change that perception. As the coffeehouse market matures, they are increasingly seeking new services and partnerships to attract customers while creating a unique identity that distinguishes them from the swelling ranks of competitors.

Certainly, lessons can be learned from Starbucks, which has adopted new services and concepts to expand its market. In 1993, the coffee giant partnered with Barnes & Noble, opening Starbucks outlets inside many of the US bookseller's branches. Marketing genius, say business gurus, as nothing is as satisfying as a good book, expect perhaps a good book and a good coffee. Starbucks later went on to introduce an in-house music program, a reloadable coffee debit card, Wi-Fi service, music listening stations and CD burning stations.

Local coffeehouse chains are experimenting with similar concepts. Cilantro partnered with local bookseller Diwan in 2005 to introduce small bookshops inside some of its cafés. Customers can peruse the English and Arabic titles over coffee, with the option to purchase them on their way out. According to Roushdy, the bookshops further hone Cilantro's local-yet-cosmopolitan image by giving its outlets "a more cultured and intellectual appearance."

Beano's has followed suit, signing a partnership agreement with Dar El Shorouk, one of the largest bookstores and publishing houses in the country, to provide books for its newly opened Mohandiseen branch.

The chain has already added small "book corners" to all its branches, and, conversely, will soon open branches inside Dar El Shorouk stores.

The bookshop concept has forced Beano's to slow its expansion, or at least to take more care in how it proceeds. "We want to plan our steps carefully and expand slowly so we don't lose our success as a result of miscalculated steps or [incorrectly applying] our concept," Abdel Nabi explains.

Cilantro and Beano's are also competing for the tech-savvy crowd. Both chains offer free Wi-Fi service for customers to browse the Net over a cup of cappuccino. Cilantro has also set up music listening stations at some of its branches. Beano's is mulling a plan to one-up its rival with an on-site techie to assist customers with their phone, computer and Internet needs.

While the technology battle heats up, Costa's management is charting a decidedly low-tech course focusing on the basics. Kamal says the chain will remain focused on providing a relaxing atmosphere where customers can escape the "complications" of concept-oriented chains. "We're not an Internet café... we just want to offer people a decent and simple environment where they can read a magazine and drink their coffee," says Kamal.

Cilantro has no illusions. Concepts may attract customers and keep them occupied, but in the end it all comes down to the product. "If the drinks we offer are not good then no one will come again," admits Roushdy. "That's why we always try our best to satisfy our customers' tastes."

In its search for the perfect blend, Cilantro has tapped Illy, Italy's largest supplier of premium coffee beans and coffee equipment. Columbus, meanwhile, imports the ingredients for its coffee drinks from France and the beans themselves from an exclusive supplier in the US. "There's a special manufacturing plant [in France] that sends us the mixes for the drinks," says Helmy. "In terms of coffee, we import only the best A-class beans from the US, which is why the prices of our drinks are higher than most."

Costa, which prides itself on a special blend, imports its coffee beans from Latin America and Africa. Its strength, says Kamal, is the roasting process. "What really sets us apart from any other café is that we roast our coffee for 20 minutes, while other cafés usually do this process in 9 to 12 minutes," he says. "This makes our drinks richer in flavor."

But importing the best materials is not enough, says Radwan of The Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf. Consistency counts. Untrained staff can make bad coffee with even the best beans. Prior to opening, The Bean sent its Cairo management team to its regional head office in Malaysia for a five-week training course. "All the outlets of our café around the world have to be consistent in terms of products and service. For example, if you have a cup of cappuccino in Malaysia it has to taste the same as the one in Egypt," Radwan says. "Even special filters are used so that the water used in making the drinks does not affect the taste of the product."

The Malaysian trip offered more than just quality training. It prepared The Bean's staff for the pending arrival of its archrival, Starbucks. The coffeehouse's staff gained invaluable experience working in the "cutthroat" international market, learning how to react to ever-changing local market dynamics. Certainly it will have its work cut out for it in Egypt as the high-end coffeehouse matures.

Competition is increasing as expanding chains vie for the same streets, squares and food courts. Meanwhile, Second Cup, Canada's largest specialty coffee retailer, is reportedly mulling plans to open in Egypt. Costa's Kamal appears unfazed by the reports. "Competition is always a healthy sign," he says. "The more you have of it the better we all will become."


The rumor mill
Anti-globalization protests, labor disputes and accusations of ruthlessly monopolizing the world coffee bean market Starbucks has faced it all. Yet its latest challenge could put a sizeable dent in Middle East sales and sink its attempt to enter the Egyptian market.

A rumor circulating by SMS and on the Internet claims that Starbucks' CEO Howard Shultz wrote a letter thanking customers for supporting the Isreali army by purchasing Starbucks products. "Every latte and macchiato you drink at Starbucks is a contribution to the close alliance between the United States and Israel," the alleged letter said.

The e-mail went on to claim that Starbucks is a pro-Israeli organization that donates money to the Israeli armed forces. In other words, every latte funds the weapons that kill innocent Palestinian children and displace Lebanese families. "Every time you visit Starbucks and drink a cup of chocolate chip frappucino [remember that you're] drinking a cup of Arab blood," it said.

The claim, as far as Business Monthly could tell, is patently false. While Shultz is indeed a prominent member of the Jewish community, the company itself has never contributed any share of its earnings to the Israeli army or any other Israeli organization. The company does, however, claim to support US troops by periodically donating free coffee to American soldiers serving in the Gulf and Afghanistan.

While Starbucks declined to comment on the e-mail, a statement on its website reads: "These allegations are false... Starbucks is a non-political organization and does not support political causes."

By Amena Bakr

© Business Monthly 2006

Article originally published by Business Monthly 10-Oct-06

Iraq’s petroleum wars

Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Soma - By Darya Ibrahim


SLEMANI - The Iraqi Oil Minister’s statement that the central government would not respect the investment contracts signed by the KRG has sparked a fierce reaction from Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani.

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has always insisted that the Iraqi constitution allows them to drill newly discovered oil sources. However, many in the central government in Baghdad have often contested the legality of contracts drawn up on this basis by the KRG. In an interview with Al Sabah newspaper on 24 September, Iraqi Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani said: “The Ministry is not committed to investment contracts signed by the Kurdistan Regional Government; we shall review the terms of these contracts.”

The statement drew a furious response from KRG Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani, who issued a detailed statement in response on 27 September.

In the meantime, reports surfaced in Cawder weekly Kurdish-language newspaper on 25 September, saying that the central government has stopped work on oil wells near the Hamrin Mountains. Cawder reported: “Iraq's Oil Ministry decided to stop drilling 128 oil wells in Kurdistan, and a source inside the ministry added that the main reason for ignoring the project is because the fate of these regions rich in oil are to be decided by a referendum under article 140 of the Iraqi constitution, it may be that they become part of the Kurdish region.”

The drilling started on these wells in Khashm Ahmer, 18km east of Kifri, Glabat and Gumar and Nadoman in Khanaqeen, in 2003. However, although the drilling should have been finished in 2004, they have not been finished and have now been abandoned.

Hama Jaza Salih, Advisor to the Kurdish Regional Government and Oil Engineer, who built the first oil refinery for the KRG, explained that not all those places listed in the Cawder article were traditionally Kurdish areas, giving the example that Khashm Al Ahmar is also known as Uzeim, which is actually an Arab town. Salih goes on to say that these wells were initially part of a plan drawn up to help Iraq to start producing the same number of barrels of oil per day as it did before the war. Therefore the afore-mentioned wells were drilled in the Kirkuk Governorate.

However, Salih says that when these plans changed some of the drilling stopped, but not just in the Kurdish areas. He adds that while some of those not in the Kurdish region were finished, they may still finish some of those in the Kurdish region, especially the one in the village of Palkana, 10 km from Kifri. Salih explained that the KRG had a masterplan in 1994 to produce 30,000 barrels of oil per day from Shiwashok area near Koya/Taqtaq, but this agenda came to a halt, partly because of the UN Oil-for-Food program, and partly due to another reason, which he said he did not wish to discuss.

“But this masterplan that we had decided to work on was very important for the oil industry in Kurdistan; 30,000 barrels per day is a huge quantity, and it would have solved our petrol problems today,” he says. “But this plan is being reexamined right now, and we hope to start working toward it again.”

“However, in light of the Iraqi Oil Minister's comments in the Al Sabah newspaper, it would not surprise me if the central government is trying to obstruct the development of the oil industry in the Kurdish region,” says Salih.

From his statement issued on 27 September, it appears that the Kurdistan Prime Minister does not doubt that the Central Government is indeed interfering in the Kurdish oil industry, saying: “As the elected Kurdistan official ultimately responsible for my government’s oil contracts, I resent Dr. Shahristani’s efforts to sabotage foreign investment in Kurdistan’s oil sector. The KRG is working to develop petroleum in Kurdistan, an area that previous Iraqi regimes had declared off limits as a means of punishing our people.”

Barzani then outlined how ineffective the Iraqi Oil Ministry has been since the fall of Saddam Hussein, saying that it had failed to implement any new projects in the rest of Iraq and had done nothing to try and attract foreign investment to Iraq. He then said: “Dr. Shahristani would better spend his time getting his ministry working rather than tearing down our achievements.”

The issue of oil looks set to remain a contentious issue, especially with the oil rich Kirkuk region up for grabs in next year’s proposed referendum. If it was Shahristani's intention to ruffle Kurdish feathers, at such a crucial point in the province law negotiations among other things, then he certainly achieved his goal. The Prime Minister's parting shot to Shahristani was: “The people of Kurdistan chose to be in a voluntarily union with Iraq on the basis of the constitution. If Baghdad Ministers refuse to abide by that constitution, the people of Kurdistan reserve the right to reconsider our choice.”

Me thinks that Oct 12 press conference in Iraq will be a press op for the leaders to show the investment law to the world. This announcement should really open new doors for growth and business in Iraq and will probably be followed up with announcements of business deals that we have heard rumblings about throughout the news.

It seems to me that r/v will not happen until Article VIII is passed by Iraq. Article VIII is an IMF policy which most if not all countries have agree to and meet specific guidlines to be internationally tradeable. The Jordanian Dinar (JD) is a prime example. The JD was around for awhile like the NID but not internationally tradeable. Jordan met all the guidelines and agreed to policy written in Article VIII.. then the JD pegged and was internationally tradeable.

It seems IMF indicators point toward the passing of Article VIII around November to December 06.. Little ways out.. and r/v should occur anytime afterward.

Fascinating Read -
I must confess I did not do the research here. This was brought forward by someone over at IIF. Very interesting.

There is alot of info here that links the marshall Plan together with the International Compact for Iraq.

I will start with the Marshall Plan.
The Marshall Proposal of Assistance to Europe, July 10, 1947; European Recovery Program; Secretary of the Treasury, Alphabetical File; John Snyder Papers.

The Parts of the document itself that I want to share with you will not copy and paste.

Read It.



Pg 2 Finally, the maintenance of a stable monetary system is to be assisted by the International Monetary fund................

Pg 5 in a number of different ways continued Inflation leads directly and indirectly to a exhaustion fo foreign reserves:
( Iraqs current inflation has been reported as high as %70)

pg 6 With the maintenance of a fixed exchange rate - as has been the rule after the second world war............................................... .....
pg 7
A comprehensive programe for financial and monetary reconstruction..............
Pg 7& 8
In the stabalization program a part of the foreign resources.............

pg 8 an increase in money wages , unwaranted by increased supplies of goods an services.............................( sound familar not to long ago they increased some wages in Iraq)
Pg 8
A cleaning up of the positon of the central bank.....................
(i)
(ii)
PG 9
The Estblishment of realist exchange rates...................................

Pg 11 Such a transferability is of course......( a maximum delay of five Years)......articles of agreement of the International Monetary Fund.
( The marshall Plan lasted four Years from 1948-1952. The International Compact for Iraq is to last 5 years the maximum in the articles of agreement.
Pg 3 of 18 first sentence of the executive summary.http://www.iraqcompact.org/documents...%205%20Sep.pdf
Pg11
Financially the foreign assistance would be used.......................
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
PG 12&13
Main objective of American Policy.........................................
(i)
(ii)
(iii)


The Primary purpose of the Marshall Plan was to stop communist aggression.

"The emerging doctrine of containment argued that the United States needed to substantially aid non-communist countries to stop the spread of Soviet influence. There was also some hope that the Eastern European nations would join the plan, and thus be pulled out of the emerging Soviet blo........
Marshall Plan - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The German civilians were given a advance of 40 Deutesche Marks immediatley and the remaining 20 were given 60 days later.
Page 3
This is the same thing that Iraq has done with the 10,000 Iraqi dinar advance.
before a revalue of the currency.

The International Compact For Iraq
Remember the reason we had the marshall plan was to stop communism.
The compact will allow a democracy to take hold in a Islamic nation that controls oil. It will also bring the fight closer to the nations that harbor terroist. A revalue is not the whole answer but it will still play a big part.

Next question



Why would we go to war Iraq and then turn around an rebuild it.
1 Saddam had switched from Us reserves to euro as reserve
2 Easily extracted oil from Iraq
3.Iraq would be friendly to Us and opec would have less power over prices.
4.Maybe Peak oil
5. The constant increasing # of Radical Islamist who would kill us as Infidels because we live in a christian country.

More info and links . . .

The Marshall Proposal of Assistance to Europe, July 10, 1947; European Recovery Program; Secretary of the Treasury, Alphabetical File; John Snyder Papers.

The Marshall Proposal of Assistance to Europe, July 10, 1947; European Recovery Program; Secretary of the Treasury, Alphabetical File; John Snyder Papers.

The International Compact.
http://www.iraqcompact.org/documents...%205%20Sep.pdf

Compare the two and you see alot of similarities. The Marshall Plan is four years long and the International Compact is 5 years long. The Imf has stipulated that 5 years is the most aid can be received. It all has to do with bolstering exchange rates between the Donor countries. The peg is going to happen and more than likey be substantial. Read and you decide.

US Military: Militia Mortar Round Caused Fire at Iraq Ammunition Depot
By VOA News
11 October 2006




Sky over Baghdad is illuminated by huge explosions in Iraqi capital early Wednesday, Oct. 11, 2006
The U.S. military says mortar fire caused a massive fire at an ammunitions depot at a U.S. base in Baghdad late Tuesday.

A U.S. military spokesman, Lt. Col. Jonathan Withington, says intelligence suggests that civilians aligned with a militia group were responsible for the attack.

The fire ignited tank and artillery ordnance. Plumes of smoke were seen rising from the depot for hours. No casualties were reported.

In violence Wednesday in Iraq, at least four people were killed in three car bomb attacks in the capital.

Also Wednesday, the Iraqi parliament approved a law that would allow the country's 18 provinces to hold referendums on forming federal regions.

Meanwhile, the genocide trial of Saddam Hussein continues, one day after the former Iraqi leader was expelled from the courtroom for disruptive behavior.

Saddam and his six co-defendants are accused of carrying out a campaign of genocide against Iraqi Kurds in the 1980s. Prosecutors say 182,000 Kurds were killed.

The witnesses have told the court about rapes, killings and other abuses at the hands of Saddam's forces. Saddam and his six co-defendants face the death penalty if convicted.

Some information for this report was provided by AFP, AP and Reuters

Originally Posted by NotSoFast

Me thinks that Oct 12 press conference in Iraq will be a press op for the leaders to show the investment law to the world. This announcement should really open new doors for growth and business in Iraq and will probably be followed up with announcements of business deals that we have heard rumblings about throughout the news.

It seems to me that r/v will not happen until Article VIII is passed by Iraq. Article VIII is an IMF policy which most if not all countries have agree to and meet specific guidlines to be internationally tradeable. The Jordanian Dinar (JD) is a prime example. The JD was around for awhile like the NID but not internationally tradeable. Jordan met all the guidelines and agreed to policy written in Article VIII.. then the JD pegged and was internationally tradeable.

It seems IMF indicators point toward the passing of Article VIII around November to December 06.. Little ways out.. and r/v should occur anytime afterward.

I read a few hundred pages back that the FIL and all of the articles have been passed already. Where are getting the information that it hasn't passed yet?

worf