Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Finally, Dr. Rice, a report coming out in the last couple of days from Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health claiming that the Iraqi total of dead people from this war, since 2003, could be 600,000. Do you have an official comment on that?

SECRETARY RICE: Yeah. We just don't see how that number is credible. The number is just outsized and just not credible. Now, it is true that too many Iraqis have died and they're dying at the hands of violent people who want to keep them from progressing to a modern, democratic and stable state. And it is true that Iraqi political leaders have to take some difficult decisions in order to stop the violence. But I think that number is just not credible.

QUESTION: Do you think that the number of civilians, Iraqi civilians dead would fall between the margin of error from that report which was 426,000 to 793,000 or well below the 426,000?

SECRETARY RICE: Well, I think we don't know. But I believe anything that's in the high hundreds of thousands just doesn't make sense.

QUESTION: Meanwhile, the very latest on Iraq as you deal with North Korea.

SECRETARY RICE: Yes.

QUESTION: What would be new, if anything, in terms of our approach on what's going on there? You know, as we've talked earlier, Jim Baker's out there talking about different things.

SECRETARY RICE: Yes. And we're very much looking forward to the report of that very fine group of Americans who are looking at this issue. The Iraqi political system continues to try to work through their differences politically rather than by violence. The security forces are actively engaged in several places, Baghdad, the Anbar province, which is one of the toughest provinces where al-Qaida is fairly dug in. And the Iraqi people are continuing to sacrifice on their own behalf. But there is no doubt that they face some difficult decisions about disbanding militias, about getting a hydrocarbon's law, an oil law that equitably uses the resources of Iraq for all Iraqi people and that's what we're really pressing them to do now is to make those tough political decisions.
news - CONDOLEEZZA RICE: Interview With Paul Smith of The Paul Smith Show

The Geopolitics Of Oil



By Issam al-Chalabi

The following paper was presented by Issam al-Chalabi at the 27th Oil & Money Conference held in London on 18-19 September 2006. Mr Chalabi is a former Iraqi Minister of Oil and a former President of the Iraq National Oil Company.



Since the discovery of oil in Persia in the late 19th century and in Iraq at the beginning of the 20th century, oil has been a focal point in all major events in the Middle East. The distribution of oil in various parts of the region was a major factor in defining the boundaries of the newly-established Arab states in order to safeguard the interests of the major world powers after the fall of the Ottoman empire. There are numerous events, conflicts and even wars in which oil was a central issue, if not the sole issue. Moreover its importance has grown over the years as the world’s dependence on Middle East oil has increased. With two-thirds of the world’s oil reserves and a third of its gas reserves, the Middle East, and particularly the region surrounding the Arabian Gulf, has become vital for the world and will remain so far many years to come.



My presentation today will only relate to Iraq, a country that has remained at the center of attention for many years due to the 1980-1988 Iraq-Iran war, the invasion of Kuwait in August 1990, followed by the second Gulf War and the March 2003 downfall of Saddam Husain and his regime at the hands of the invading forces led by the US. Whether or not oil was the real target of that invasion will surely remain a subject of controversy for researchers and politicians for decades to come. However, one of the architects of the war, US Defense Undersecretary Paul Wolfowitz, when asked why the US did not attack North Korea after it admitted to possessing weapons of mass destruction, replied without hesitation: “Iraq floats on oil.”



The Iraq war has become more controversial as virtually everything has turned sour: the political process is deadlocked, security deteriorates year after year and month after month and the economy is in shambles, with unemployment reaching 51% and severe shortages of fuel, electricity, water and every other indicator. On top of that, the performance of the oil industry has fallen short of the minimum expectations both upstream and downstream.



The current status and future prospects of the Iraqi oil industry have been discussed on many occasions, so today I would like to deal only with the latest developments that will shape the destiny of Iraq and determine whether it will remain a unified country or disintegrate one way or another. The interference, interests and influence of outside forces, particularly the US as the main player and regional players such as Iran, will no doubt continue to play a major role, but I would like to concentrate on internal geopolitics and the conflicting agendas of the main factions and groups.



When Iraq’s draft constitution was promulgated in August last year, I said from this podium that “the relevant articles on the oil and gas industries seem to contain the seeds for conflicts and possible fragmentation.” That was one of the main reasons for threats to boycott the 15 October 2005 referendum, threats which were only averted after strong lobbying by the US administration and the insertion of Article 142, which cleared the way to amending the constitution through the establishment of a parliamentary committee within four months of inauguration of the new parliament. It has been almost eight months since that date, and the deputies are still arguing about the definition of the starting date.



This led to two major developments in the form of attempts to establish controversial laws prior to any possible amendments to the constitution. The first relates to the insistence of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) on the full ownership, control, development and operation of the oil industry, both upstream and downstream, in accordance with its own interpretation of the disputed articles on oil and gas. As an example, Article 111 of the constitution states that “oil and gas is the property of all the Iraqi people in all the regions and provinces.” However, the KRG says that such resources within Kurdish areas are owned only by the people of Kurdistan. It also says that the regional parliament of Kurdistan is the sole legislative authority over all petroleum operations in that region.



The KRG on 7 August published the draft of a proposed petroleum act and followed it last week with a final draft to be submitted for enactment. This move came as a surprise to the central government, which was itself preparing a draft hydrocarbon law for the whole country in a ministerial committee headed by the deputy PM, Barham Salih who happens to be a leading Kurdish figure and representing the Kurdish parties in the central government. Among other controversial articles in the Kurdish legislation, it is stated that it will apply to all “disputed territories,” meaning the currently-producing Kirkuk, Mosul and other oil fields as well as all other undeveloped fields. It clearly states that no law, contract or license issued by the central government can be applied without the explicit agreement of the KRG.



The Iraqi Oil Minister Husain al-Shahristani said a few weeks ago that there will be only one authority in control of oil resources. Yet there has so far been no official reaction to the latest Kurdish move, and it remains unclear what will be the fate of the draft hydrocarbon law that is supposed to be finalized and submitted to the Iraqi parliament for legislation by the end of the year. The KRG is continuing to sign production-sharing agreements for blocks and structures under its control, as with DNO of Norway, Genel Energi of Turkey, PetOil of Turkey and Canada’s Western Oil Sands and Heritage. In one of these agreements profit oil will be shared on a 51-49% basis and cost recovery oil could reach as high as 80-90%.



The second major development is politically motivated but is also focused on the oil wealth in the southern part of Iraq. The Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), one of the main groups in the present government, last week submitted to parliament a controversial draft law detailing the mechanism for establishing regional governments similar to that in the Kurdish region. However, this was strongly opposed by other parties within the same coalition as well as other groups outside it. This is being looked upon by some observers as a possible sign of national aspiration against the latest tide of sectarian motivations.



A federal region in the southern part of Iraq could encompass up to nine provinces, including three oil-rich provinces - Basrah, Misan and Thi-Qar – which contain oil fields with proven reserves of nearly 80bn barrels, or over 70% of Iraq’s current proven reserves. These include undeveloped super giant oil fields such as West Qurna, Majnoon, Bin 'Umar, Halfaya, Nasiriya, and Ratawi and nearly 30 other fields.



Currently Iraq’s oil exports are limited to those from the Basrah oilfields and some from Misan. These generate all the oil revenue on which the central government depends. The mishandling of oil and oil products has been known for some time but only came to light after the formation of the new government last May. Reports of missing oil barrels, smuggling and mishandling of funds have been made public through various channels, including inter alia official reports from the Inspector General of the Ministry of Oil and the Audit Board formed by representatives of the UN, IMF, World Bank and the Arab Fund. The report of the Inspector General of the Ministry of Oil listed seven illegal berthing facilities used for smuggling of oil products that had cost Iraq nearly $1.5bn. The Audit Board talks about hundreds of millions of dollars misplaced or missing.



The current Iraqi National Security Advisor, Muaffaq al-Ruba'i, said on 14 June that oil is at the heart of much of the heavy fighting around Basrah. “These oilfields are the richest in Iraq and constitute all the current Iraqi exports,” he said. “If you don’t understand what’s happening there, follow the dollar sign. There is a 6,000 b/d difference between the level of production for exports and the level of actual exports. It goes into the pockets of warlords, organized crime and political parties.” This figure for missing barrels is in fact much lower than estimates by other sources, but even at this level it adds up to nearly $130mn over and above the $1.5bn for smuggling and mishandling of imported oil products in the official ministry report.



In conclusion, I would like to make a second reference to my presentation a year ago at this conference, which some participants thought was rather pessimistic. The figures for production and exports were as I predicted. For the first eight months of 2006, production was 2.090mn b/d compared to the 2mn b/d I predicted, with exports averaging 1.506mn b/d compared to 1.5mn b/d. As for the future, I do not think that 3.5mn b/d will be attained before 2009-10 or that 6mn b/d will be reached before 2012 at best.

The Geopolitics Of Oil

Off to the Cayman Islands LOL

(Voice of Iraq) - 10 - 14-2006 | This issue was sent to a friend

Official : PARLIAMENTARY popular mainstay of the legitimacy of the federal

Required first submit a request with the consent of one third of the members of the Council of each province or ten voters

BAGHDAD : Numan Alhimus
Said Hussein al-Shamri member of the Legal Committee in the Iraqi Parliament, the representative of the Virtue Party in the United Iraqi Alliance, The law «mechanisms and procedures for the formation of regions, which was approved by the Iraqi Parliament last week. needed to maintain the system which wishes Territories (federal) a request by a third of the members of the preservation or ten voters in the governorate, He pointed out that the referendum is the basic foundation of the legitimacy of the Territories. The Shamari told the Middle East «», that the system of regions, which work will start after 18 months, and according to the mechanism used for implementation, under constitutional rules, submit a request to the prime minister, The request will be referred by the Council of Ministers to the Office of the Independent Electoral Commission, in order to take the necessary action within a period not exceeding three months, which includes organizing a referendum in the province willing to work, according to the territories to monitor the public opinion work, according to the regions or not. noting that form the region to submit a request for the desire union with other provinces (Central and South), or conservative and one is a federal system within the state of Yugoslavia. He pointed out that al-Shamri turnout in the referendum, which will be held in the province should not be less than 50% of the number of voters. any persons who are entitled to vote in the province and that the proportion of majority voting for the participants in the referendum, in order for the referendum is successful and valid outcome. And between Shamari said that the next phase of the referendum, including opening the door for nomination to the Legislative Council for the new province or territory, since setting a date for elections for this purpose, with the participation of the citizens who are entitled to vote. The number of members of the Legislative Council elected, it is determined according to the census of the province or territory consisting of a number of governorates. It represents all 35-50 thousand people one seat in the Legislative Council. Thus, the members of the Legislative Council in the light of the number of hearts maintain or provincial components of a single region. He added, a member of the legal committee in the House of Representatives, After the end of the elections and the counting of the votes by the High Commission for Elections and identify members of the winners of the membership of the Legislative Council, thus the election of the presidency of the Legislative Council, therefore, the legislature commissioned a person known to initiate the formation of an executive authority of the Territory to the Legislative Council for confidence and practicing their activities or withhold confidence, for the formation of a new government of the territory, and work within the scope of the federal government.
It should be noted that the regions which approved last week, the most extensive arguments on the legality of a pass in the House of Representatives Iraqi 142 members by a vote of the total members of the Council's 275 members, It has opposed the Iraqi Accord Front and the Front National Dialogue law. As opposed political forces within the United Iraqi Alliance is the trend Sadri, the Virtue Party.
Middle East

Sotaliraq.com

Accord Movement : the parliamentary session to approve the Non farce «»

(Voice of Iraq) - 10 - 14-2006 | This issue was sent to a friend

London : «» Middle East Described National Accord Movement led by Dr. Iyad Allawi session of the Council of Deputies, the Iraqi parliamentarians voted in favor of the Iraqi territories b farce «» »,« conspiracy.
The movement said in a statement received «» Middle East copy yesterday that «people are surprised all and with all the forces and the Iraqi national leadership honorable likely meeting of the House of Representatives on Wednesday 11 / 10 / 2006 on the adoption of the partition of Iraq, or the so-called law of the Territories», pointing out that «contents of this project is a blatant challenge to the will of our people and the Iraqi nation project Tekasimia clearly promoted by a foreign will, not only entertained the spirit of evil and destruction of Iraq and its people».

The statement added «we in the Iraqi National Accord, as we consider what happened a meeting of the Council of Deputies mentioned a plot to divide Iraq and the audience do not represent all the Iraqi people and that he voted in favor of partition but will bear the consequences of damage to Iraq's supreme interests».

Sotaliraq.com

(Voice of Iraq) - 10 - 14-2006 | This issue was sent to a friend

A meeting of the Nineveh governor Duraid Khmolh Khosro Curran and Deputy Governor and the Director of Police

In a meeting between Mr. Duraid Khmolh governor of Nineveh, Khosro Curran Deputy Governor, Major General Al-Hamadani sure police chief of Nineveh, the security situation has been studied over the past two days where managed Iraqi armed forces and security agencies and the Iraqi police of inflicting heavy defeat terrorists and the killing and detention of dozens of others, Alasti loyalty to the gear and vehicles that were used in the movement and tried some terrorist Mohamed occupying army and the party to return and rule the seizure of the city of Mosul from their elements, and collected nearly 120 of terrorism. most came from areas Tall Afar, Humera and the surrounding villages, La Nimrod and control, but was disappointed by force and Valhm intentions sick and turned back to extinguish been killed six terrorists and the arrest of 65 of them had been seized at a car carrying a large pickups and two cars full of weapons and materiel and 25 small car. He also praised the conferees Messrs. valiantly security and military forces in defending their town and principles and realities of the democratic will contribute to the process of reconstruction, peace and a peaceful life after the elimination of the remnants of the terrorists. The desperate attempts of this is a testimony to the bankruptcy at all levels. It will be repeated defeats and shames persistent thought chauvinist and criminal and must realize that the possibility of them in the new Iraq.

Sotaliraq.com

Shiites push for British troops to leave 1 hour, 46 minutes ago (October 13-14,2006)
Shiites push for British troops to leave - Yahoo! News

BASRA, Iraq - Many Shiites in this southern port city say they want British troops to leave, though the region is still bloodied by a persistent grind of killings, including Sunni insurgent bombings and Shiite-on-Shiite slayings amid a competition for political control.

Several prominent Basra leaders on Friday agreed with an assessment by Britain's army chief that the British presence only worsens the violence and the soldiers should withdraw soon. Gen. Richard Dannatt backpedaled Friday from the comments he made in an interview a day earlier, saying he meant troops should leave within years, but the statements caused a political storm in Britain.

In Basra, Shiites insist the British presence only provides a target for attackers seeking to end the "occupation" — and some said the troops are doing nothing to rein in party-backed Shiite militias that have risen to prominence.

"To tell the truth, (the British) have caused the chaos and the security decline in southern Iraq, especially Basra, by their leniency with the militias and their parties," said Ghali Nijm, head of the Shiite Wifaq party in Basra.

Added Aqil Talib, a member of the Basra provincial council from the Shiite Fadila party: "The British presence is no longer desired, as is that of the Americans and others, even though the British are kinder than the Americans."

(The middle part I left out, this is the last two portions of the article!)

The desire to see foreign troops leave is also fueled in part by Shiite insistence they can run their own affairs.

"The British forces entered Iraq and liberated it from the Saddam regime," said one Basra resident, Essam Mohammed. "Since they have fully accomplished their mission, they should now leave Iraq ... because they are creating some obstacles and problems for the Iraqi people."

(Voice of Iraq) - 10 - 14-2006 | This issue was sent to a friend

Shiite and Kurdish leaders see federalism as a matter of fact «», «» the Association of Muslim Scholars is a black day approval «»
Baghdad-Wahid taste of life-14 / 10 / 06 / /
Sources told Shiite and Kurdish «life» «The federation endorsed and become a reality for everyone and to deal with this issue seriously», It demanded the provinces of Basra and Nasiriyah to exploit the period of deferment applied for the preparation of qualified cadres of the Department of Territories, campaign awareness of the new system. She described «» the Association of Muslim Scholars, on the vote on the federal law b »« Black.

The deputy said the novelist leadership of the Party «» Islamic advocacy told «life» that «all Iraqi forces and government departments dealing with the reality of federalism after the law was voted upon in the House». He pointed out that the objections came from the federal «votes is not a new tone here since the writing of the Constitution». And the forces rejecting the allegations of two kinds : «I illustrates that the Federal monopolize wealth and hegemony on the sources, This refuted the theory of the Constitution when it addressed the issue of wealth distribution and outlined with the adoption of population density basis for this. The second play card of national unity and trying to incite public opinion emotionally, and pictures of federalism project for the division of the country. This is not true, that the project, which was submitted to parliament does not affect or threaten national unity, it also ensures that all Iraqis to confront the dictatorship and authoritarianism ».

«Promised to rule the distribution of wealth in the Constitution column Iraqi economy and the rule of federalism is to build vertical distribution of authorities». Making light of the importance of questioning the legality of the parliament during the vote, «The amendments to some of the paragraphs of items law at a meeting of representatives of blocs Minutes before the meeting, in deference to the wishes of one of the lists. The quorum required 138 deputies, while 140 deputies present, we need a simple majority to pass the project. That has happened. The official record of the meeting exists ».

The Kurdish MP Aref Tevor, Second Deputy Speaker of Parliament, objections to pass a federal law «» inappropriate. He said in a statement to «life» «hyperbolic that the fundamentalist and legal in the meeting, which was preceded by a meeting of heads of blocs». He called «those who question the legitimacy of the voting law to provide legal justification away from the political rhetoric and emotional», He pointed out that the federation and the reality of the rule of law and Huger subject to objection, except observations of the right to the Presidency made before endorsing it, and even if not ratified, after 15 days is effective ».

In Basra, Sheikh Abu peace Alsaidi, a board member of the preserve, a «divisions in the Council on the type of federalism that will be chosen. There are three views : the Supreme Council-and-formations calling for the designation of Basra and the southern governorates and Furat one territory, representatives of the party «invitation» CALL FOR ANNEXING preserving the territory of the three provinces with Nasiriyah, Amarah, With members of the Council will embrace of the Virtue Party «» the idea of establishing a federal system of Basra alone, as a first stage, After the evaluation is the experience, and if successful with significant enrollment in other provinces and one territory ».

He did not conceal Sheikh Ahmed Ali, deputy governor of Nasiriyah, concerned staff time and expertise, and their impact on the fate of the new experience. He stressed in a statement to the «life» «need to create efficient cadres capable of assuming the responsibility of the administration of the territory, and the importance of good preparation on the political level to avoid the failures faced the provincial administration after the fall of the former regime, was hauled shares sectarian elements inefficient in administrative positions, including security institutions. As reflected negatively on the performance and rampant corruption, which has become the scourge plaguing the country and its economy », He called on the government to exploit the postponement of the application of the federal 18-month told «opening sessions of intensive training for all disciplines, The preparation of cadres capable of assuming the new responsibility ». He pointed out that «current programs implemented by international organizations on the federal programs are not useful and fruitless so far has failed to produce anything».

«Described the Association of Muslim Scholars, in a statement obtained» «life», a copy of, on the vote on the federal law b Black »« today, She announced that «who have contributed to this process would stand up one day accountable to the employer Dignity». It went on to say that the «denounces this fateful step, which has incensed the people of Iraq are free and received the blessing of the American Ambassador, indicates that the occupation forces behind this project ». It called «Iraqis to rally around the anti-occupation forces, which refused the entire political process».

Sotaliraq.com

Translated version of http://www.aladalanews.com/
Today. The House vote on the draft form Territories
Approval of the law inclusion
Baghdad / justice
It is hoped the House of Representatives to vote today on the formation of regions in the draft submitted by the United Iraqi Alliance and the parliamentarians that despite the fact that there are other projects of the Territories

Introduction of the project submitted by the coalition most likely to win the confidence vote in Parliament and in this context, Sheikh Hamid Maaleh member of the House of Representatives from the United Iraqi Alliance : "The Coalition for the formation of regions that will be voting on it." He added of the National Iraqi News / Nina / Tuesday : "There are other projects for the formation of regions but the points which added to the draft coalition which will be voted upon in a meeting of the Council of Deputies today." The Maaleh to : "Those points put on the form of opinion and the opinion of the first and second become one project." He continued : "If a vote was taken on the formula approved, it will accept or will be voting on more than one formula and the formula that got the majority is to be adopted."

The House of Deputies at its sixth session held yesterday to a draft law modulation after several suggestions by members of Parliament.
The Voice of the Act 144 members out of 180. The meeting had been delayed from the time due to differences between the political blocs on setting a date to discuss the draft Territories.

They are preparing a Basketball team that starts today for them in Baghdad. Wow!! They are gearing up for sports.


Translated version of http://www.aladalanews.com/


Captain idea Toma team coach basketball team : the doors will remain open to everyone.
Flight training will start next Saturday at a training unit in the week.
Baghdad / Ali Hussein Abbas
Beginning next Saturday 14 / 10 / 2006 training our team National League ball in the first step to prepare for the West Asia Championship hate basketball teams that due to be held during July 2007

He said basketball coach our team hate the idea of Captain Thomas : he had been invited 19 players to training, which will start next Saturday in the Hall of the People in Baghdad and at a unit training a week until next March.
He pointed out that the agreement with the European Union decided to benefit from three players for their wealth of experience they needed additional Nidal Ghanem, sure Shamkhi Lusaka, and the team included Muhammad Ali Amer young player called a professional in Jordan, who will join the team in special training camps and that he was chosen the best young player in Jordan and this means that Abu in August the team will remain open to everyone.
He pointed out that we diverted us from our players to professional clubs and capacity, we do not know anything about them.
Also invited to the team's players and Sajjad Hussain Ali Abdullah and Yasser Mohammed, and Mohammed Zia Ahmed Obaid, Hussein Hassan, the owner of Faleh and Maithem Abdul Wahid, Naji Freij, Hassan Saleh Ahmed Farhan, Mohammad Sattar, Ahmed Hamza and Mustafa Jassim Ali Amer, asked Rahman, Ahmed Suleiman. "