Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Originally Posted by Vipor

But... if the Kurds pass their oil law, let's say today for argument's sake, with the dinar still at 1470, doesn't that give all the benefits to big oil companies and very little benefits to the Kurds?
Our argument for needing the oil law for Iraq has been it comes with an rv in order to benefit Iraq. How can the Kurds get their oil law passed while still being tied to a ridiculously low dinar value. Their only choice would be to go to a different higher value currency which may not be good for us small-time investors. Am I way off base here?

I think what we need to remember is that Iraq is selling oil right now without the r/v taking place.

So if it r/v's or not the Kurds could still sell their oil. How it affects us is concerning foreign investment. If the Kurds open the doors for oil companies and foreign investment to come in now before the r/v, it would allow the large companies (and foreign govts) to come in and literally buy Iraqi companies, lease land, buy their ISX for .00068 on the usd. They could literally buy entire companies and industries for next to nothing on the usd. In theory the large multinational companies/foreign govts. could probably buy all of Iraq in mere weeks. The Iraqi/US govts. don't want this to happen.

Baghdad is playing the game of "let's drag our feet as long as we can and maybe nobody will notice". Problem with this strategy is everyone is noticing!!! Everyone is PO'd with Maliki's pace. He won't be able to keep this going forever. He will either get with the program or get run over trying to stand in the way.

Way too much money sitting on the sidelines waiting to come in IMO. American presidents, kings and other rulers have been assinated for less. If you are Maliki, you have some tough decisions to make: Drag your feet and try to appease the militias and get assinated by either the US or the foreign govts/multinational corps., or go with the US & multinational corps benchmarks and get assinated by your own countrymen/militias. He is in a no win scenario.

For our benefit and the rest of western world's, I vote for him reaching the benchmarks, including a r/v real soon!!! His people want/need it, the Kurds want/need it, the foreign govts want/need it, the US wants/needs it, the multinational businesses don't necessarily want it (except for their various executives that have bought millions of dinars), but they want to get in and start making obscene amounts of money right away so they'll put up with it.

So I don't personally think Maliki would be removed by the US govt. (at least not officially) I think he risks being taken out by assination if he doesn't get moving. He risks greater chances of being assinated by the foreign govts/multinational corps. then the miiitias imo. If he goes with the benchmarks, he at least gets protection from the US, and the praise of his people resulting in the defeat of the insurgents, stopping their impending civil war, and the peace and stability of his country. He could go down in the history books as a hero.

If he continues to try and appease the militias, he will be probably taken out by either them or someone else and be viewed as a weak leader (read loser) IMO. He needs to shiite or get off the pot!!!

worf

still very confusing to me what you showed Adster about a coup. I watched the whole New conference, and it seem to me i read, and heard that GW was Pleased with Malaki's peformance to the most extent. I can't visualise a coup Unless headed up by the opposing forces of the unity Government. To begin a new leadership at this point in time. will not accmplish a thing. what is needed more than anything, IMO, Is More support, and different Tactics to irradicate the killers, and criminals. and Most of all a Reval to help the people of Iraq survive. and rebuild their nation. JMHO

Hi,

A couple of questions, does anyone know if the passing of the investment law has been posted in the Gazette yet and does America have any influence whatsoever over the revalue, they introduced the new currency.

Originally Posted by worf

I think what we need to remember is that Iraq is selling oil right now without the r/v taking place.

So if it r/v's or not the Kurds could still sell their oil. How it affects us is concerning foreign investment. If the Kurds open the doors for oil companies and foreign investment to come in now before the r/v, it would allow the large companies (and foreign govts) to come in and literally buy Iraqi companies, lease land, buy their ISX for .00068 on the usd. They could literally buy entire companies and industries for next to nothing on the usd. In theory the large multinational companies/foreign govts. could probably buy all of Iraq in mere weeks. The Iraqi/US govts. don't want this to happen.

Baghdad is playing the game of "let's drag our feet as long as we can and maybe nobody will notice". Problem with this strategy is everyone is noticing!!! Everyone is PO'd with Maliki's pace. He won't be able to keep this going forever. He will either get with the program or get run over trying to stand in the way.

Way too much money sitting on the sidelines waiting to come in IMO. American presidents, kings and other rulers have been assinated for less. If you are Maliki, you have some tough decisions to make: Drag your feet and try to appease the militias and get assinated by either the US or the foreign govts/multinational corps., or go with the US & multinational corps benchmarks and get assinated by your own countrymen/militias. He is in a no win scenario.

For our benefit and the rest of western world's, I vote for him reaching the benchmarks, including a r/v real soon!!! His people want/need it, the Kurds want/need it, the foreign govts want/need it, the US wants/needs it, the multinational businesses don't necessarily want it (except for their various executives that have bought millions of dinars), but they want to get in and start making obscene amounts of money right away so they'll put up with it.

So I don't personally think Maliki would be removed by the US govt. (at least not officially) I think he risks being taken out by assination if he doesn't get moving. He risks greater chances of being assinated by the foreign govts/multinational corps. then the miiitias imo. If he goes with the benchmarks, he at least gets protection from the US, and the praise of his people resulting in the defeat of the insurgents, stopping their impending civil war, and the peace and stability of his country. He could go down in the history books as a hero.

If he continues to try and appease the militias, he will be probably taken out by either them or someone else and be viewed as a weak leader (read loser) IMO. He needs to shiite or get off the pot!!!

worf

Also, that article said that a reval was needed for imports to make the cost of merchandise more acceptable to the iraqi population, he also stated that exports were negliable.

We should have had a government full of Kurds. We'd be sipping margharitas, smoking the biggest Cuban cigar in the world on a sunny beach by now if we'd had.

Originally Posted by Adster

We should have had a government full of Kurds. We'd be sipping margharitas, smoking the biggest Cuban cigar in the world on a sunny beach by now if we'd had.

Adster,
That's for sure. Hopefully they will get everything together and r/v this puppy.
LIT

Here's some things we need to be watching, or seemingly coming together.


Originally Posted by Offshore-Wealth.com
Interesting,

This says it all, just have to wait and see.

(1)4. The International Advisory and Monitoring Board has a meeting scheduled Oct 31 , 2006. When they meet the Iraqi Govt can Request control of the oil proceeds from the IAMB and Resend Resolution 1637 and sign article VIII and trade thier curency internationally.

Sure sounds like something is going on behind closed doors. Remember Annan saying a big announcement was coming, and then nothing came?





by:ezcash
I think Mikes focus on end of Oct is important.. remember
(2)Shabibi will be a keynote speaker....at economic conference 10/30 and 10/31
It would be another good time to be able to impress all the big bankers that they are making big steps in the right direction for the ecomony and people.. with a rv announcement? Hope it not a missed opportunity... :)

Also, the 10 day period for cbi 10 days of no auctions by charmedpiper
The article about 10 days says that auctions will be suspended...does not say that that CBI will be closed. Warka however specifically said will be closed for business.

(3)"Central Bank of Iraq and domestic markets, especially after the official stopped the auction to sell currencies to convene for a period of ten days because of Eid al-Fitr. "
Which puts this date on OCt. 31
So just my opinion we could see this happen anytime between today and then.
Plus all the other things Adster has listed somewhere

I sure hope your right daydreamer!I believe,IMO,By november 1 we will see something wonderful unfold with our dinar!To much is at stake for gw and the iraq people!D eadlines need to be met.I think they will be!!
sarah!!!GO DINAR GO!!!!!

Originally Posted by Adster

Yes, there will be delays if this happens bob, read my latest article. Let's hope it doesn't happen....

Surely if a coup does occur this will set things back big time, what will happen to the exchange rate and of course the ISX. Further instability IMO could make things worse, more violence and a struggle for power.

Do you mean to rescind 1637?

Article VIII should technically already be in effect as there are no restrictions on the international trade of Iraq's currency. I believe you can request Iraq's Art. VIII obligation through IMF publications for a fee and this will state if they are a country in acceptance. Sometimes IMF doesn't publicly update the Article status for months but it can be found in publication.

Edit: sounds silly I know but what I mean is in the past full Art. 8 compliance was not published on their website but was available for certain countries in economic reports that can be purchased from IMF.

Originally Posted by day dreamer

Here's some things we need to be watching, or seemingly coming together.


Originally Posted by Offshore-Wealth.com
Interesting,

This says it all, just have to wait and see.

(1)4. The International Advisory and Monitoring Board has a meeting scheduled Oct 31 , 2006. When they meet the Iraqi Govt can Request control of the oil proceeds from the IAMB and Resend Resolution 1637 and sign article VIII and trade thier curency internationally.

Sure sounds like something is going on behind closed doors. Remember Annan saying a big announcement was coming, and then nothing came?





by:ezcash
I think Mikes focus on end of Oct is important.. remember
(2)Shabibi will be a keynote speaker....at economic conference 10/30 and 10/31
It would be another good time to be able to impress all the big bankers that they are making big steps in the right direction for the ecomony and people.. with a rv announcement? Hope it not a missed opportunity... :)

Also, the 10 day period for cbi 10 days of no auctions by charmedpiper
The article about 10 days says that auctions will be suspended...does not say that that CBI will be closed. Warka however specifically said will be closed for business.

(3)"Central Bank of Iraq and domestic markets, especially after the official stopped the auction to sell currencies to convene for a period of ten days because of Eid al-Fitr. "
Which puts this date on OCt. 31
So just my opinion we could see this happen anytime between today and then.
Plus all the other things Adster has listed somewhere