Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Economic : new developments in international economic relations

Political first : politicians expect continuing decline in the acts of violence in Baghdad
عللوا that the effects of Mecca and strict inspection procedures Baghdad-Sabah Politicians expected to decline to terrorist acts witnessed days of Eid al-Fitr will be pointing out that the effects of the Mecca of hand and the strict measures adopted by the Iraqi forces to impose security in Baghdad. The violence has escalated significantly in the month of Ramadan, but they retreated in the days of the feast. He expected Adnan Al-Dulaimi the head of the Iraqi Accord continue to decline in terrorist operations, after the signing of a document between Mecca clerics Shiites and Sunnis and said : The moral of this document impact in alleviating the armed operations in Iraq. It said the name of Sharif deputy coalition united Iraq : that document calls Mecca and a number of clerics to stop violence and strict actions of the security forces had an impact on the decline of armed operations in the last few days. He added : from there could be various reasons contributed to the reduction of violence including the Mecca, which make some quarters that participated in it and signed the document Mecca seeking to put pressure on the armed groups to stop their operations against civilians. Sharif pointed out that the invitation of Mr. Muqtada al-Sadr to calm the situation and to renounce violence and the concomitant visit of the Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to the religious authorities had the other impact in reducing violence. He explained : Despite what caused procedures undertaken by the Iraqi security forces to restrict the movement of people and create a lot of difficulties for transit because of the heavy presence of Sitarat However, it is possible to assume that the purpose of the citizens is to protect lives. He supported Gamal Eddin deputy in the parliament of the existing Iraqi national who attributed the reasons for the decline of armed operations after the holy month of Ramadan to intensify the efforts of the Iraqi security forces. He said : the direct reason for the reduction of violence during the days of Eid al-Fitr is to intensify security efforts and the high prevalence of the Iraqi security forces and setting up checkpoints in various areas. He added that all that has led to achieve great successes of those forces and to control the security situation has led to a marked decrease in violence. He continued : Gamal Eddin We hope that the document Mecca impact in reducing the violence and restore some of the extremist groups to its senses. The General William Caldwell, spokesman of the multinational forces in Iraq, announced yesterday, Thursday, at a press conference : that violence and killings has fallen from 10 to 20% after the month of Ramadan. He added : The presence of the coalition forces intensively in some areas of Baghdad had helped in the decline of operations. For his part, attributed the Deputy Interior Minister Ahmed Ali Khafagi the reduction of violence in the past few days to the new plans by the Ministry to improve the security situation. He told (Nina) : The ministry published its agents in the areas where they are heated and the presence of the terrorist groups to tighten the noose by adding : The security situation is improving because there are great efforts being made by the highest officials in the State and plans are also in the daily follow-up of all the details in addition to the adoption of the principle of reward and punishment as they will be alerted and the expulsion of negligence in their duties. Khafagi and pointed out that the document Mecca contributed to isolate terrorists and the withdrawal of cover evil to watch them.

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The first political : Al-Maliki : However, the State Commission and we will strike breakers of the law strongly

Governmental delegations to the invitation of opposition figures and the Anbar police detain terrorist carrying Syrian nationality Baghdad-Sabah With the Prime Minister reiterated Nouri Al-Maliki emphasized that the state only the right to bear arms and threatened to use force against each of its prospective outside the framework of the law, noted observers speculate and citizens down the violence to such a degree that it is emphasized that the government is determined to fight against terrorism and surrounded according to the patterns and new contexts. And with regard to this endeavor, by the government in the reconciliation program, And a senior government source said : that official quarters would run negotiations with Iraqi figures abroad are parties and movements opposed to the political process. Disarming militias And provided Mr. al-Maliki told within days of Eid al-Fitr impressions that the new government toward a new impetus against the serious challenges besetting the people of the systems of terrorism, which has become a decisive elimination in the determination of Al-Maliki, who had threatened to use force against anyone who carries weapons outside the framework of the law. The orientations and the Prime Minister that this marked a once determined with the general climate calls for confronting terrorism and curb the reins of the armed groups and militias, as the government is responsible for security in the country and no one has the right to talk about other security responsibilities. The observers speculate that Mr. Malki revealed signs of earlier plans, he said : it will be implemented in time to disarm the militias, It is during his press conference Wednesday, the clearest examples of what they said is consistent with momentum moving between its interests and wishes to provide the security atmosphere suitable for dialogue, He said : we strongly we will strike all of the law and all come from beyond the prestige of the State, We must all realize that the presence of the militias in addition to the State will harm the whole must work to end all these Alojudat armed. The holy month of Ramadan witnessed an escalation noticeable in the terrorist act but for a retreat in the days of Eid, A spokesman for the multinational forces : it went down to more than twenty%, But Deputy Interior Minister Ahmed Ali Khafaji said : The retreat of violence resulting from the new security plans stressing that the security situation is improved because there are great efforts made by senior officials and said : that document Mecca contributed to isolate terrorists and the withdrawal of legitimate cover them. He described Al-Maliki presence and activities of terrorist organizations, which belong to Altkverein Sadamiin and that the battle. While Prime Minister interpretations, which it said : the American administration was given a period of time to repair the situation, the observers have taken him to his intention to enforce security and the development of the armed forces assume half of Iraq's provinces by the end of the current year, This demonstrates a way that security and political steps to make reconciliation with the American officials and Iraqis that the director was aware of the crisis. In this reference can be made to the statements made by Minister of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld on Thursday in which he said : the roads are not alone sufficient to solve the problem of Iraq. Terrorist Syria As Iraqis hoped that the improvement of security in Baghdad, a sign of improvement in the al-Anbar, Diyala, the battle with terrorism in these two provinces between Kerr and verification provided by the security forces achievements can be considered signs of retreat of the terrorists, In Ramadi, threw army and police forces arrested a terrorist carrying Syrian nationality, A correspondent Mustafa Sabah Al-Dulaimi that the military detachment were searching cars at the western entrance to the city of Ramadi when the terrorist arrested yesterday, Friday, carrying a belt of explosives recognized its explode in a crowded places, The police in Ramadi : it follows the suicide terrorists were admitted to the terrorist Republic (more details on page 3) In the meantime, the statement said : The strength of the Iraqi police killed 18 terrorists and seized large quantities of arms following an attack against a base of Baquba Thursday, pointing out that the troops chased terrorists between houses. But the situation particularly in the province of Diyala, referring to the influence of the armed force requires rapid intervention of the people, according to the state. Parties Conference Expected politicians and citizens from the government to take stronger action to curb armed groups, However, the Prime Minister said : it tends to apply the Anti-Terrorism Act after the political forces and until (exhaust all opportunities and arguments to find solutions through peaceful means, and we have exhausted all avenues where footing after the Anti-Terrorism Act). It is hoped that the conference was held, the political forces in Baghdad on the 4th of November next. A government source (morning) announced yesterday that invitations were extended to 150 figures representing political movements, He commented by saying : The supreme body is trying to reduce the presence and self personalities representing parties to be able to dialogue and consultation by saying more easily. That source said : The government will dispatch in the coming days several delegations of the moves and wide on several points, including opposition figures to the political process and a number of tribal leaders who are believed to have links with armed groups opposed to the foreign presence to bridge the gap in viewpoints and reach a solution to the problem in Iraq and outside Iraq. He added that the government is open to all the political parties that believe that the political process is the right way to achieve their aspirations and believes in dialogue with any armed reject the legalization of blood and the targeting of innocent Iraqi. He explained that the document Mecca, which recently signed should be the starting point of any dialogue with the armed opposition or of the political process they are clearly spelled out the principles that built all of the dialogue and to achieve the interests of Iraq and lifting excuses for the terrorist acts by any party, pointing out that these political moves offset in the same direction military movements towards achieving security in the troubled areas and the elimination of the hotbeds of violence and crime in various parts of Iraq, especially Baghdad.

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By Eugene Tang and Wing-Gar Cheng

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Iraq will invite China National Petroleum Corp. and other overseas companies to invest in oil fields to double daily production to 6 million barrels by 2012, the country's oil minister Hussain al-Shahristani said.

``We need foreign partners to help develop new fields,'' al- Shahristani said at a press conference today in Beijing. ``Iraq will significantly increase its oil production in the next few years and China will significantly raise its imports. That's why the two countries will need to work closely together.''

Iraq will increase its oil production to 3.5 million barrels a day by next year, with the capacity to export 2.4 million barrels a day, al-Shahristani said. The increased oil output will not be curtailed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, because Iraq has been producing less than its quota for many years, he said.

``Our friends at OPEC understand Iraq needs to produce more oil quickly,'' he said. ``The general position is to allow Iraq to produce as much oil as quickly as possible.''

China imports about 40 percent of its oil. The world's fastest-growing major economy may consume 7 million barrels of oil a day this year, 6.4 percent more than in 2005, according to an October forecast by the International Energy Agency.

Need for Oil

The Asian nation needs more fuel to run power plants and feed its industries, prompting Chinese oil companies to look abroad for fields. Demand for oil in the world's fourth-largest economy has almost doubled in a decade, contributing to record prices.

The Iraqi parliament is poised to pass a law to regulate the country's oil and gas industry. All contracts signed during and after the collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime will have to be renegotiated under the terms of the new legislation, al- Shahristani said today.

At stake are an estimated $700 million of agreements signed in 2000 that gave China National Petroleum the right to develop the Al-Ahdab and Al-Qorna oil fields in southern Iraq.

``A committee has been convened to discuss this and they will commence work next month'' to renegotiate the terms of the contract to meet the requirements of the new law, al-Shahristani said today. ``The law allows participation but not control. The oil of Iraq belongs to the Iraqi people.''

Renegotiate Contracts

Agreements that China National Petroleum and China Petrochemical Corp., the nation's biggest oil companies, had to develop Iraqi oil fields were halted by the U.S. invasion in 2003 and the conflict that followed.

Iraq's government is increasing efforts to stop attacks on oil installations and ease companies' concerns over security, Thamir Ghadhban, an adviser to the Prime Minister, said Sept. 13.

Chinese companies plan to drill for oil in Iraq, which holds the world's third-largest proven oil reserves, China Oil News, China National Petroleum's online newsletter, reported Oct. 18, citing Dathar Al Khashab, general manager of Iraq's Midland Refineries Co.

China was approached after U.S. companies refused to work in Iraq, Al Khashab was cited as saying. Chinese companies have dismissed security threats, he said, without giving details.

China's government supports a return by the nation's oil companies to Iraq. Al-Shahristani said he met Chinese oil executives including the directors of China National Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corp. and China Petroleum and Chemical Corp. to discuss investments in Iraq.

Chinese Technology

``Chinese oil companies have the capital, capacity, technology and interest to invest in Iraq,'' he said today. ``They are willing to modify their facilities to work on Basra crude if Iraq can guarantee consistent supplies. We can very easily double our output and guarantee the supply.''

``We welcome cooperation between Chinese oil companies and other countries in the energy field,'' Zhang Yuqing, deputy director of the energy bureau at the National Development and Reform Commission, said on Oct. 18. ``If the Iraqi side seeks investment from Chinese enterprises, especially in oil field exploration and production, the Chinese government won't interfere in any of the activities of the oil companies.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Eugene Tang in Beijing at [email protected]
Last Updated: October 28, 2006 04:51 EDT

Bloomberg.com: Asia

(Voice of Iraq) - 10-28-2006 | This issue was sent to a friend

Maliki meets Bush via satellite today Baghdad / Nina / The Hassan Al-Sunaid member of the Committee on Defense and Security in the House of Representatives : "The meeting will be via satellite at two o'clock this afternoon Baghdad time

Sotaliraq.com

(Voice of Iraq) - 10-28-2006 | This issue was sent to a friend

Meetings between the leaders of the resistance and representatives of the United States in Amman during the next two weeks
A new political front shortly announce

Baghdad morning
The secretary general of the Nasserite Vanguard proximity formed a new political front, including old Nasserist, nationalist and Islamic and national in the next few days, With one of the leaders of the Islamic army that the next two weeks will attest to the meetings between the leaderships of the (resistance) and representatives from the American side.

Said Dr. Abdel-Sattar al-Jamili secretary general of the Nasserite Vanguard told the "morning" : his party supports supports any national effort to ensure Iraqi security depends on Iraq, according to the priorities of ending the occupation and the cancellation of sectarian, ethnic and reaffirm the Arab identity of Iraq and national unity of land and people.
Jumaili between that coordination with a number of forces and the national parties led to the formation of the Front, which will include an integrated program offers to address the problems of the current phase and the post-foreign presence, and we will deal with everyone in the supreme national interest to build Iraq as well as the respect for the legitimate rights of a T. people in the framework of a democratic Iraq.
The Front representatives in the House and will have a role in any talks with interested parties through dialogue and talks, which would be open to dialogue with all relevant parties, the Iraqi issue and on the basis of the four priorities put forward by the Front.
Meanwhile, Al (morning) one of the leaders of the Islamic Army that the meetings will take place during the next two weeks between the leaderships of the "resistance" and representatives of the American side in the framework of negotiations on the Iraqi security situation.
Abdel Rahman Al-Ansari : The meetings will be held mostly in the Jordanian capital of Amman with nearly (12) armed faction which encounters the first of its kind conducted directly.
He explained that most will be discussed is a schedule or withdrawal of the occupying forces and the amendments to the political process and the abolition of the problem in this era of former civil administrator, Paul Bremer, as well as to resolve the armed militias.

Sotaliraq.com

This seems to be a follow-up article for one already posted.

Iraq Taps Chinese Oil Companies to Double Production (Update1)

By Eugene Tang and Wing-Gar Cheng

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Iraq will invite China National Petroleum Corp. and other overseas companies to invest in oil fields to double daily production to 6 million barrels by 2012, the country's oil minister Hussain al-Shahristani said.

``We need foreign partners to help develop new fields,'' al- Shahristani said at a press conference today in Beijing. ``Iraq will significantly increase its oil production in the next few years and China will significantly raise its imports. That's why the two countries will need to work closely together.''

Iraq will increase its oil production to 3.5 million barrels a day by next year, with the capacity to export 2.4 million barrels a day, al-Shahristani said. The increased oil output will not be curtailed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, because Iraq has been producing less than its quota for many years, he said.

``Our friends at OPEC understand Iraq needs to produce more oil quickly,'' he said. ``The general position is to allow Iraq to produce as much oil as quickly as possible.''
China imports about 40 percent of its oil. The world's fastest-growing major economy may consume 7 million barrels of oil a day this year, 6.4 percent more than in 2005, according to an October forecast by the International Energy Agency.

Need for Oil

The Asian nation needs more fuel to run power plants and feed its industries, prompting Chinese oil companies to look abroad for fields. Demand for oil in the world's fourth-largest economy has almost doubled in a decade, contributing to record prices.

The Iraqi parliament is poised to pass a law to regulate the country's oil and gas industry. All contracts signed during and after the collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime will have to be renegotiated under the terms of the new legislation, al- Shahristani said today.

At stake are an estimated $700 million of agreements signed in 2000 that gave China National Petroleum the right to develop the Al-Ahdab and Al-Qorna oil fields in southern Iraq.

``A committee has been convened to discuss this and they will commence work next month'' to renegotiate the terms of the contract to meet the requirements of the new law, al-Shahristani said today. ``The law allows participation but not control. The oil of Iraq belongs to the Iraqi people.''

Renegotiate Contracts

Agreements that China National Petroleum and China Petrochemical Corp., the nation's biggest oil companies, had to develop Iraqi oil fields were halted by the U.S. invasion in 2003 and the conflict that followed.

Iraq's government is increasing efforts to stop attacks on oil installations and ease companies' concerns over security, Thamir Ghadhban, an adviser to the Prime Minister, said Sept. 13.

Chinese companies plan to drill for oil in Iraq, which holds the world's third-largest proven oil reserves, China Oil News, China National Petroleum's online newsletter, reported Oct. 18, citing Dathar Al Khashab, general manager of Iraq's Midland Refineries Co.

China was approached after U.S. companies refused to work in Iraq, Al Khashab was cited as saying. Chinese companies have dismissed security threats, he said, without giving details.

China's government supports a return by the nation's oil companies to Iraq. Al-Shahristani said he met Chinese oil executives including the directors of China National Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corp. and China Petroleum and Chemical Corp. to discuss investments in Iraq.

Chinese Technology

``Chinese oil companies have the capital, capacity, technology and interest to invest in Iraq,'' he said today. ``They are willing to modify their facilities to work on Basra crude if Iraq can guarantee consistent supplies. We can very easily double our output and guarantee the supply.''

``We welcome cooperation between Chinese oil companies and other countries in the energy field,'' Zhang Yuqing, deputy director of the energy bureau at the National Development and Reform Commission, said on Oct. 18. ``If the Iraqi side seeks investment from Chinese enterprises, especially in oil field exploration and production, the Chinese government won't interfere in any of the activities of the oil companies.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Eugene Tang in Beijing at [email protected]

Last Updated: October 28, 2006 04:51 EDT

Originally Posted by CharmedPiper

(Voice of Iraq) - 10-28-2006 | This issue was sent to a friend

Maliki meets Bush via satellite today Baghdad / Nina / The Hassan Al-Sunaid member of the Committee on Defense and Security in the House of Representatives : "The meeting will be via satellite at two o'clock this afternoon Baghdad time

Sotaliraq.com

Interesting.........bit of luck Bush will tell him his days are numbered unless he revals!!

Iraq al-Maliki declares himself a friend but not “America’s man”
By Associated Press
Saturday, October 28, 2006 - Updated: 08:41 AM EST

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Embattled Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki told the U.S. ambassador that he was Washington’s friend but “not America’s man in Iraq,” ratcheting up his high-stakes and increasingly bitter dispute with the Bush administration, an aide said on Saturday.

The Shiite leader made the declaration in a meeting Friday with Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, after which the men issued a rare joint statement declaring the need to work together to set timelines to clamp off spiraling violence attributed to Shiite militias and death squads.

“I am a friend of the United States, but I am not America’s man in Iraq,” Hassan al-Sneid, a close al-Maliki aide, quoted him as telling Khalilzad during the meeting.

The insider’s account of the session was in sharp contrast to the joint al-Maliki-Khalilzad statement that was issued both by the American Embassy and al-Maliki’s office late Friday night.

The joint statement said the Iraqi leader reaffirmed his commitment to a “good and strong” relationship with the U.S., in what appeared to be an attempt to bring down the curtain down on a week of recriminations.

Al-Sneid said the prime minister demanded that his government be treated as an elected administration that enjoys international legitimacy, and that U.S. forces in Iraq must coordinate better with his government.

He added that al-Maliki had repeated to Khalilzad in their Friday meeting that the premier was reluctant to implement a timeline for tackling security issues, arguing that Iraq’s security forces were not yet up to the task and requested that the United States do more to train and equip them.

The joint statement Friday had appeared to signal that al-Maliki was backing down from his highly publicized squabble with the Bush administration and dropping his objections to a timeline proposed by Washington for bringing security to his war-ravaged nation.

The dispute has further tarnished President Bush’s bid to promote policy “adjustments” in Iraq with less than two weeks left before U.S. midterm congressional elections.

The vote has become a referendum on Bush policy in Iraq as U.S. deaths have topped 2,800 and the war dragged into its 44th month.

Bush and al-Maliki were to hold a video conference at 2 p.m Saturday, according to a close aide of the Iraqi prime minister. Top advisers of both leaders will take part in the talks.
The relative five-day calm in Baghdad in the five days since the end of the holy month of Ramadan ceded ground Saturday to a fresh outbreak of bloodletting.

One person was killed and 35 wounded when a rocket slammed into an outdoor market in Baghdad’s turbulent southern neighborhood of Dora, according to police Lt. Mohammed al-Baghdadi. A second person was killed and nine were wounded when a bomb went off in a minibus in an eastern Baghdad district, police Lt. Ali Hussein said.

In Baqouba, 35 miles northeast of Baghdad, police said they had found two bodies of apparent sectarian violence in the city’s central al-Mu’allimeen district. A third body was pulled from the Diyala river earlier Saturday.

The Washington-Baghdad dispute has not only undermined Bush’s attempt to put a new face on Iraq strategy but was highly embarrassing to Khalilzad, who announced the timeline at a news conference Tuesday and said al-Maliki was on board.

But over the next two days, al-Maliki declared he saw imposition of timelines as an infringement on Iraqi sovereignty and his government’s authority. The timeline program, he said, was a product of U.S. electoral politics.

The White House later claimed al-Maliki’s comments were taken out of context. But hours later, the Iraqi leader reissued the same complaint, unambiguously in an interview with British journalists.

The language in Friday’s statement, issued in both English and Arabic, suggested a clear attempt to dampen further speculation about the growing rift in ties between the two governments.

“The government of Iraq is committed to a good and strong relationship with the U.S. government to work together toward a democratic, stable Iraq, and to confront the terrorist challenges in light of the strategic alliance between the two countries,” it said. The “Iraqi government has made clear the issues that must be resolved with timelines.”

Al-Maliki owes his job to backing from 30 lawmakers from the “Sadrist” movement of anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose Mahdi Army militia is blamed for much of the sectarian violence sweeping Iraq since a February attack against a major Shiite shrine.

Washington has in recent weeks stepped up pressure on al-Maliki to crack down on the militias and their affiliated death squads, but al-Maliki, who came to office in May, has yet to take concrete action despite repeated assertions that he would disband them.

The U.S. military, meanwhile announced Saturday the death of a U.S. Marine in the restive Anbar province west of Baghdad, raising to 98 the number of U.S. forces killed in Iraq so far in October, already the fourth deadliest month since the Iraq war began in March 2003. The Marine died Friday from “injuries sustained due to enemy action.”

The death toll among U.S. forces in Iraq now stands at least 2,811 since the beginning of the conflict, according to an Associated Press count.

Originally Posted by Webster

Susie, when you talk about forex and 36 hours, (less now) I take it that you are referring to the ozforex in Sydney Australia. If that is so, here is just a little reminder (I am sure that you already know this) but Sydney goes to daylight saving at 2am, about 11 hours from now their clock moves forward 1 hour. Queensland does not have daylight saving but Sydney does. So we have to wait an extra hour! Darn. R/V, R/V, R/V PLEASE.

Now if you in Australia and your time moves forward and we live in the US and at the same time depending where you are living we will fall back does not that make it the same time?

See when this happens and I work in Las Vegas, NV, I never know what time it is this time of year it is dark when I go to work and it is dark when I get home. I feel like I am up there with SGS.

What better way to unify a country than to promote the well-being of all its citizens.


Iraq is already a divided country
It makes little sense for the U.S. to try to put it back together

Peter W. Galbraith
National Post


Saturday, October 28, 2006


In order to help Iraq surmount its current crisis, it is necessary to understand one basic fact: The Iraqi state has disintegrated.

Kurdistan in the north is in all regards an independent state with its own elected government, its own army and its own flag. The Iraqi flag is banned and, by Kurdistan law, the Iraqi army cannot enter Kurdistan.

Iraq's Shiite-dominated south is not yet organized as its own state but it is governed separately from Baghdad by Shiite religious parties that enforce an Iranian-style Islamic law through Shiite militias that number in the tens of thousands.

Baghdad is the front line of a civil war between Sunnis and Shiites and is divided between the Sunni west and the Shiite east. The predominantly Sunni centre of Iraq is a battleground between the insurgency and the U.S. military.

Moreover, Iraq's breakup is codified in the Iraqi constitution, a document approved by nearly 80% of the country's voters.

The constitution creates a virtually powerless centre: The government in Baghdad doesn't even have the power to tax the population. The regions, on the other hand, are allowed to have their own armies, and have substantial control over their own oil. Regional laws trump those of the central government on almost all matters.

The Kurds want no part of Iraq, a country they associate with decades of repression and Saddam Hussein's genocide in the 1980s. In January, 2005, Kurdistan voted 98% for independence in a non-binding referendum. Since it is impossible to see how Kurds will ever reconcile to being part of a country they hate, Kurdistan's full independence is a matter of time.

Both Shiites and Sunni Arabs consider themselves Iraqis but have bitterly opposed visions of what Iraq should be. A "unified" Arab Iraq is a formula for endless war. The Shiites are moving forward with plans to form their own region, and it is in the interest of the Sunnis to do the same. Regional self-government -- or, if they so choose, formal independence -- will enable each community to safeguard its own interests and minimize conflict.

Given that Iraqis have themselves effectively endorsed the country's breakup, it makes little sense for the United States to devote vast resources to trying to put it back together.

In circumstances of partition and civil war, President George W. Bush's strategy of building up an Iraqi army and police will never succeed.

Iraqi security forces are either Shiite or Sunni and are therefore partisans in the civil war. Iraq's police include Shiite units that are responsible for the kidnapping, torture and execution of thousands of Sunnis, while Sunni police cooperate with the insurgents or are the insurgents. Most army units owe their loyalty to their ethnic or sectarian communities and not to a national command authority that is itself sectarian or ethnically based.

Building up Iraq's security forces is not a formula for ending the civil war; rather, it is a program to make for more lethal combatants. Building up regional armies, on the other hand, can improve the security situation in that region.

One reason Kurdistan is by far the most stable part of Iraq is that security is entirely in Kurdish hands with no presence of the Iraqi army or police.

Continued on next page

Continued from previous page

Opponents of partition argue it will leave the Sunnis without a share of Iraq's oil wealth. In the interim the Kurds and Shiites have agreed to share oil revenue with the Sunnis, based on their 20% share of Iraq's population. (This may not placate the Sunnis as this would represent a sharp drop from 75% of the revenues they received in Saddam's time.)

Further, there probably is oil in Sunni areas, as well. Much of Iraq's territory has not been explored, and there just hasn't been much exploration in the Sunni areas. That will change in coming years, especially if the security situation improves. Once the Sunnis have their own oil supply, it won't be necessary to subsidize them with oil wealth from the Shiite south and the Kurdish north.

Accepting the reality of Iraq's breakup also provides a road map for the United States and its coalition partners to leave the country. The only reason to be in the Shiite south would be to dismantle the Shiite theocracies that run the region, disband the militias that enforce an Iranian-style Islamic law, and to counter Iran's influence.

Since Mr. Bush has no intention of doing any of these things, there is no purpose to a continued presence there. We should also withdraw from Baghdad unless we are willing to send in many more troops and use them as police to contain the Sunni-Shiite civil war, steps that Mr. Bush is not now considering.

The United States has one overriding and achievable interest in Iraq: preventing al-Qaeda from establishing a secure base in the Sunni Arab region from which it could attack the West.

The current strategy for fighting al-Qaeda and its terrorist allies has not worked because it involves using mostly Shiite troops to fight in the Sunni areas where al-Qaeda operates.

A Sunni region with its own army has a better chance of containing al-Qaeda, but if they don't, the United States should keep a small force in Kurdistan as an insurance policy. Alone among Iraq's peoples, the Kurds are pro-American and their army would be a useful ally if we needed to intervene against al-Qaeda.

When it ousted Saddam, the United States broke up Iraq, a country that had been kept together only through brutal force. It cannot recreate Iraq, nor is there any interest served by trying to do so.

- Peter W. Galbraith is a former U.S. ambassador to Croatia and the author of the new book The End of Iraq: How American Incompetence Created a War Without End (Simon & Schuster)

I do not pretend to be any type of expert, and I am sure the situation is complex, but people will focus on working together, if they are safe and have opportunities to provide for themselves and their families...just my 2 dinars.