Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

At the risk of sounding horridly uniformed; can someone explain FIL to me?

It is the establishment of Foreign Investment Law for money and investment into the country of Iraq.
LIT

Is it normal for a currency to hold it´s value without variance for so long ?

The IQD has held at 1470.00 for quite some time now.........

I thought they continually rose and fell, even if only by fractions.

Originally Posted by Adster

Tony,

I really hope and feel November will be the month. I just don't see this going into next year. We'll know more when FIL is enacted and/or we hear about article V111.

Hang in there matey, take a break from the forum if it'll help. This will happen, have faith.

So am i right in saying, no one presently can confirm whether the article 8 has been signed. Was this on the agenda for the meeting yesterday? If it was surely its been done........ Need to wait until all the news sites are updated then we will know more. Its all still looking good though....

For all my Rolclub gang here I have taken the time to transcribe the press statement by Mr. Kimmet that was done yesterday in Kuwait. He is the economic head for the compact. It is certainly worth the read. Enjoy....

I am James Finelle, I am the information officer at the American Embasy. I am very pleased tonight to introduce Deputy Secretary for the American Treasury, Mr. Robert Kimmet, who is heading the U.S. delegation here to the ICI conference. Of course, the ICI conference is about Iraq and at the focus today but, I know that it is an important issue for Kuwait and so we wanted to bring you all here together, the Kuwaiti Press, and as a courtesy the U.S. Press to ask some questions of Mr. Kimmet. We have some bios for the Deputy Secretary. I can tell you briefly, he has a lot of experience in both the government and the private sector. He is an attorney and has worked for Lehman Brothers; he has worked for the White House National Security Counsel as well as the U.S. Department of State in Political Affairs and he also is a former U.S. Ambassador to Germany. So, our time is limited so what I will do is have Mr. Kimmet come up, he will make some remarks, and then I will open it up for questions. Please wait on me to call on you for a question and since our guest, Mr. Kimmet, is a guest in Kuwait, he does not know you. Please state your name and the organization you are from, okay. Thank you.

Mr. Kimmet: Thank you very much, it is very nice to be back in Kuwait. My first visit to Kuwait was in March of 1991 with Secretary Jim Baker. We were the first American visitors back into Kuwait after it’s liberation. I have had a chance to visit Kuwait a number of times since then and have always enjoyed and appreciated the hospitality of both the Kuwaiti government and the Kuwaiti people.

This past summer, Prime Minister Maliki of Iraq layed out a 3-part program political, security, and economic; the economic component of which was embodied in the International Compact with Iraq essentially as Deputy Prime Minister Barnhem Saleh and the U.N. Special Representative indicated, these are commitments by the government of Iraq to an economic reform plan designed to produce economic self-sufficiency and financial independence in a 4 to 5 year time period that is, over the medium term. In return, from the international community, commitment to support that reform effort. President Bush asked me this summer to lead the U.S. Delegation and I attended the organizational meeting held in Baghdad on July 20th ; the prepatory group meeting in U.A.E. in early September, I believe it was September 10th ; and then the expanded meeting both at the U.N. General Assembly session in New York on September 18th ; and also the World Bank IMF fund meetings in Singapore on the same day, and then now this prepatory group meeting in Kuwait .

I would like, once again, to thank the government of Kuwait for extending an invitation to not just the United States but, 20 international organizations and countries to come to Kuwait to participate in this important prepatory conference. I would like to particularly thank my friend, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs whom I have known for quite some time and I have always known to be a wonderful representative for the State of Kuwait and was an excellent host for today’s meeting . I would note, again, that there were 20 countries and international organizations represented today from the Americas, from Europe, from the Gulf Region, and from Asia as well as international organizations both global and regional and I signaled in today’s meeting, the United States Government’s strong support both for the concept of the International Compact and also for our strong support for the draft as it has emerged and based on today’s successful meeting, I think we are in a position now to move to a ministerial level meeting as the Deputy Prime Minister of Iraq and the U.N. Special Representatitives have indicated which the compact can be concluded.

I would be glad to take your questions.

Q: Yes sir, (arabic being translated) : The Deputy Prime Minister of Iraq spoke of new commitments from the United States to Iraq. (mumbled sorry ****)
A: I think the size of pledged will be announced by ministers at the ministerial meeting. What I noted was, that the U.S., in the past, had provided debt-relief , technical assistance, investment support, and donor assistance in terms of not only reconstruction, economic development aid, but also aid to the Iraqi Security Forces and I anticipate that the United States Government at the Ministerial will make new pledges in each of those areas.

Q: What is your assessment of the promises of the Iraqi government so far.
A: The work that I do is with the Iraqi government in the economics sphere. I think in spite of the very difficult political and especially security situations that the government faces, that the economic team has made significant progress. They have a stable currency, they have sizeable foreign currency reserves, they are almost back up to pre-war levels of oil production and therefore are able to finance a considerable part of their own government operations. However, there still is a gap between their requirements and the resources available to them and again, that is one of the things that the International Community is talking to Iraq about now, helping to close that gap.

Q: Your greatest fear of responsibility and amount of Iraqi debts and how do you see the future plans for progress in Iraq.
A: I think with regard, if I understood your question correctly, I think that what I heard today, most importantly was a commitment by the government of Iraq to rebuilding it’s country for the benefit of all of it’s people. What I also heard, was the international community saying that it wants to support Iraq in that rebuilding effort . It was in the Madrid Conference, in 2003, already sizeable pledges by the international community some of which have been disbursed and some of which remain to be disbursed. There are, I think, about 50 countries who have a creditor relationship with Iraq, that is, to whom Iraq owes debt. A number of countries including the United States have made the decision to forgive 100% of Iraq’s debt. Other countries have made the decision to forgive 80% of the debt according to Paris Club terms and I think as we go forward, those other countries who are creditors both in the gulf but more broadly Russia, China and others for example are looking very closely as the Deputy Prime Minister said, at joining the group of people who have entered into debt relief but, also as the Deputy Prime Minister has said, that is really for bilateral discussion between the government of Iraq and the creditor countries.

Q: In the previous meetings, how much has Iraq bounced forth as part of this compact agreement and have the other countries members agreed to Iraq’s demands.
A: In the previous meetings and leading up to today, especially working with the World Bank and IMF, there has been a projection over the mid-term of what would be Iraq’s governmental spending requirements and Iraqi governmental resources. There is a gap, however, between the requirements and their resources. That amount, as the Deputy Prime Minister said, is still under discussion as to exactly what their needs are but, the Iraqi’s know that they need to be quite specific in laying out not just the amount of money that is the gap but what the money would be used for . The impression I have is that the international community, once those numbers are established, is prepared to work with the government of Iraq to help meet that gap but my guess is that it will take several weeks as we lead to the final ministerial conference before additional detail is provided and going back to the earlier question, before firm commitments are made at a public position. At this time, I would not have the rough figures to give but of course that would be a question to give to the Iraqi government but, I would say that we are working very diligently with the IMF and the World Bank . And remember, Iraq is under a standby agreement with the IMF right now. So, it has been through the process of this already of meeting tough economic conditions in return for international assistance and we are trying on the basis of the changing economic circumstances to refine estimates that have been made before . I think we will know more on that at the ministerial meeting but even there, I probably would not give you the Iraqi figures , we will be quite specific about the U.S. figures at that time.

Q: Do you have a message for the Iraqi people today.
A: Well my message is, the United States of America and the American people stand strongly behind your desire to live in peace and security. The Iraqi people have voted for peace and security in the first democratic elections in decades. We, and I think coming from this meeting, the international community more broadly supports the aspirations of the Iraqi people to live in peace and security.

Q: Are you confident in the current role the Iraqi government is playing .
A: The way that the compact is set up as I stated earlier is that the Iraqi government is layed out in the compact is specific commitments that they are willing to undertake on their path toward economic reform. Based on what we have seen, in terms of them living up to their commitments under the IMF standby agreement, I believe the Iraqi’s understand the importance of the seriousness of the commitments that they are entering into and I think in response not by just the United States but the world community represented not just by the prepatory group but eventually a broader group of donors will look in return for Iraq meeting those commitments themselves to come forward with new commitments again, whether it be debt relief, technical assistance, investment support, or additional donor support either on the economic or the military side and again, I would expect that the U.S. would look at contributing in each of those areas and other countries will make their own choices on how to put commitments on the table in return for Iraq’s commitments.

Q: In arabic inaudible.
A: The benefit is that if we have as the Deputy Prime Minister said, an Iraq at peace with itself and at peace with it’s neighbors and what is good for the Iraqi people first and foremost it is good for the region and for the world more broadly and I think that is why each of the members of the international community participated today and the broader group that will attend the final meeting . We see this first and foremost in the interest of the Iraqi people but there are also very important regional and global benefits in return.

Q: In arabic inaudible.
A: I think as the Deputy Prime Minister indicated, the intention is to hold the ministerial level conference by the middle of December. So, that would be sometime over the next 6 weeks. The participants would include the countries who are represented on the prepatory group that met today, her in Kuwait. But, we would expect also a broader group of countries. There was a much larger group that took place in both Singapore and New York including Russia, China, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Iran, and others and I would expect that broader group of countries to participate in the final meeting and with regards to the debt issue, certainly we would hope that there would be considerable progress towards resolving the issue but as the Deputy Prime Minister said, it ultimately will be a decision for each individual creditor what decision they will take. My guess though is that every country who is a creditor who comes to the conference will look to address that issue in some way.

Q: This month has been a bloody month in Iraq for U.S. forces and also to secure Baghdad , what steps have U.S. officials taken. For success of this package will you send more troops into Iraq.
A: Well, as I said, my role in this process is supporting the economic component of the 3-part plan layed out by Prime Minister Maliki. The other 2, political and security in addition to being Iraqi leads are supported by my colleagues at the Defense Department and the State Department so, I would defer to them on the overall question . Also I would not accept your premise that the security component has failed but again, I think that would be better directed first to the Iraqi’s and second to my colleagues also in the government. What I will say; however, is that I think that the compact is successful. It has elements in there although couched in economic terms, will also have important political effects. For example as the Deputy Prime Minister said, movement on the hydrocarbon law that lays out exactly how revenue is going to be shared. Yes, it is important in economic terms but I think that it is important for all the communities inside Iraq so, that is why I think that although my part of this is the economic side, it does weave closely with political and security it is just that I am not the expert in the areas that you have raised.

Q: I am going to ask you a question outside the Iraq issues. U.S. pressures on Arab governments to achieve certain policies, what is your comment on this.
A: I don’t know if I will answer it but you may certainly ask it. Across the board, the U.S. assistance program is something that is developed mutually with governments involved. Certainly, when we give assistance we are trying to advance U.S. interests and when governments receive U.S. assistance, they are putting it to further there own goals. But, I have worked in the assistance business for quite sometime and it is always a mutual decision and certainly any government that provides assistance, they are doing it for what they think is the betterment of both of the countries involved but of the donor country too. Again, I find that those decisions are mutual decisions, not enforced upon any particular country rather it is an effort to achieve mutual objectives through sharing of resources.

Q: Pressures on Iraqi’s.
A: We are not putting any pressure on our friends and allies. We explain why we made the decision we did to go beyond Paris Club terms and forgive 100% of Iraq’s debt to the United States and primarily it is an economic issue. If ultimately we want Iraq to be dependent on it’s own resources and foreign investment rather than foreign assistance, one very important message both to investors and to the capital markets is that the country is either free of debt or managing it’s debt successfully. So, I think all countries want to encourage an Iraq that can take care of itself with it’s own resources and external investments and one of the ways to do that is encourage foreign investment , encourage access to the capital markets and that is one of the reasons why debt reduction is so very important for a new economy moving from the command economy it was under Saddam to a free market economy. [INDENT]Now, that is a very Treasury-oriented macroeconomic analysis it also of course has a very important political effect because what it is saying is that countries want to have a relationship with a new government , a democratically elected government, that should not operate under this heavy burden of past debt from a dictatorial regime, debt that stiffels precisely the foreign investment and access to capital markets that we all know that Iraq needs so badly.Thank you all very much.

Okay, I spent alot of time on this and anyway you dice it up....they have to have a revalued currency to support what is expected of them. You can't negotiate debt and move forward with worthless currency. Am I missing something...come on Iraq here it is in Black, red, and white just read it.

Originally Posted by Dinar Duchess

So am i right in saying, no one presently can confirm whether the article 8 has been signed. Was this on the agenda for the meeting yesterday? If it was surely its been done........ Need to wait until all the news sites are updated then we will know more. Its all still looking good though....

We just don't know at this point. They had the chance to rescend it, it's whether they did or not. We know how these Iraqi's do the opposite to what everyone thinks.

Originally Posted by neno

Read the rules for this thread, before posting in this "THREAD"!! tks-neno

Baghdad Time: 02:37pm, 10/31/2006 ~ market is closed | $1 USD = 1469.63 IQD ^


Ok this will start our "Latest News Thread", with the same rules for posting here. Everything else has been Moved to the History Thread. for reference. Continue the quest for the reval with rules followed. Have a Great Future.

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It may be my computer, but I can't find a "thanks" button anywhere on this post. Is there a time limit on it or something? Sorry to be dense. I would like to sign the first post.

Originally Posted by Adster

For those that see the security as the main problem should read the below. Reval and kick start the economy and as Mike, I and a few others have said for so long the security will sort itself out. Give their people money, jobs, something to work towards, provide for their families, pay bombers to NOT blow themselves up. Soon see a drop in insurgency/militia attacks.


Economic Development Can Help Curb Violence in Iraq, Expert Says In a series on U.S. strategy in Iraq, Eric Davis, a professor of Middle East politics who served as an adviser to the Bush administration, discusses how investing in economic development projects can help curb the violence in the war-torn country.
JIM LEHRER: Now, another of our conversations about what the U.S. can or should do next in Iraq. We've heard already about ending the occupation, decentralizing Iraq, and training Iraqi security forces. Tonight, it's an economic idea. And Ray Suarez is in charge.

RAY SUAREZ: And for that, we're joined by Eric Davis, professor of Middle East politics at Rutgers University and author of "Memories of State: Politics, History and Collective Identity in Modern Iraq." This summer, he was part of a group of academics who advised President Bush at the White House about Iraq.

And, Professor Davis, when you spoke to the president, did you give him your view that what's often portrayed as a security challenge, as a military challenge, is really an economic one?

ERIC DAVIS, Professor, Rutgers University: Absolutely. I made the argument that, without turning the Iraqi economy around, we can't expect the decline in political violence nor can we expect to move towards political stability in Iraq.

RAY SUAREZ: And hasn't that jobs-economy approach long been part of the stated policy of the Bush administration in prosecuting the Iraq war, that American troops were to clear areas, hold them, and use that time to rebuild them?

ERIC DAVIS: Well, unfortunately, it may have been the stated policy of the Bush administration, but little has been done on the ground. And the key problem is unemployment.

We have an unemployment in Iraq estimated between 40 percent and possibly 60 percent. If you also realize that 61 percent of the Iraqi population is under 25 and there's been almost no new job creation since 2003, it doesn't take very much arithmetic to realize who are the most susceptible to recruitment to insurgent groups and sectarian death squads.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, are you willing to elide those two points, to say here that that, those dire numbers that you just stated, drive the security problem?

ERIC DAVIS: Well, I think that, unfortunately, much of what is described in the media as sectarian violence is really a cover for criminal activity and for promoting the political interests of what I call sectarian entrepreneurs. These are people who are pushing a political agenda, trying to obtain more power, but who also have deep economic interests in the current struggle that's under way in Iraq. The real issue is finding the funds, because we know that the United States is spending an enormous amount of money just on the military occupation of Iraq every day.

RAY SUAREZ: OK. So here we are, it's fall 2006. How would you change from here forward what's been done up until now?

ERIC DAVIS: Well, I think, when we go back to the 1930s, we remember that we had similar problems during the Great Depression. President Roosevelt wisely chose to develop the Works Progress Administration and the Civilian Conservation Corps.

We also know that, after World War II, Secretary George Marshall implemented the Marshall Plan. And it took 10 years, but it worked to bring Germany back to democratic stability.

So I don't think that this concept is particularly difficult to understand; I think the real issue is finding the funds, because we know that the United States is spending an enormous amount of money just on the military occupation of Iraq every day.

RAY SUAREZ: Except in Iraq, wouldn't you, Professor, be starting from a very different square one, starting in a terribly degraded environment with just a recent past of widespread death, terrible violence, a bitterness at American forces inside the country?

ERIC DAVIS: Well, some of my ideas were stimulated by some of my conversation with military officers who have served in Iraq. There is a program called the Commander's Emergency Response Program, or CERP, which was based upon funds seized from the former Baathist regime.
And oftentimes, these military officers -- usually middle-range military officers -- would take funds to areas characterized by political violence and put people to work. And, lo and behold, the level of violence would drop precipitously. People would get involved in cleaning up garbage, sewage, paving roads, building clinics, painting schools, and also often showed a lot of gratitude towards the American troops who were giving them daily work.

Needless to say, at the end of the day when they were exhausted, they were not in any shape to go out and fight American forces. It's not enough to go into a neighborhood and just pay somebody to do some work for a while and then withdraw.
Stability
RAY SUAREZ: Well, what stopped that from being a self-sustaining virtuous cycle? You describe the desirable outcome there, that people who might otherwise be part of the insurgency were instead building schools and painting homes and so on. What happened?

ERIC DAVIS: Well, first of all, this is a very sporadic program. It was used in an area, and then it ceased. The Marshall Plan, if we think about that program or even the New Deal policies, these were long-sustained, thought-out efforts.
It's not enough to go into a neighborhood and just pay somebody to do some work for a while and then withdraw. As a matter of fact, if you look at the interviews with Iraqis in the recent effort of American and Iraqi troops to suppress sectarian violence in Iraq, all the Iraqis would say, "Yes, we have peace now, but unless we're able to turn the economy around, once the American and Iraqi troops leave, the sectarian violence is going to return all over again." And, lo and behold, that's exactly what happened.And the argument to...
RAY SUAREZ: To a large degree -- oh, sorry, go ahead. Finish your point.

ERIC DAVIS: No, the argument that I'm trying to make is that our neighbors -- or allies, rather, the neighbors of Iraq in particular -- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the other Arab gulf oil-producing states, are awash in oil revenues because of the recent rise in oil prices. They don't want to see a failed state in Iraq; they don't want to see an extension of Iranian influence into southern Iraq; they don't want to see violence in Iraq spill over across their borders.

So when we talk about the funding for this economic reconstruction program that I'm suggesting, I think one thing we could do would be to put pressure on our allies in their own self-interest and also on our recent new friend in the Middle East, the Arab oil-producer Libya, and perhaps even some other Muslim states such as Turkey, Malaysia, and Indonesia, to contribute to this fund, which would then come with an international face and could begin to provide, first, jobs for Iraqis, temporary jobs.

And once you create stability in certain areas, then attempt to develop labor-intensive, longer-term self-sustaining economic employment, such as food processing plants, bakeries. And we could think of a whole variety of projects. The overwhelming majority of those recruited to death squads in urban areas, for example, are rural to urban migrants...they get some salary, they get a rifle, they get a uniform, they get the idea of belonging, protection from a group. Luring away from militias
RAY SUAREZ: Well, if we accept your point that widespread unemployment and economic insecurities fueled the insurgency, let's talk about those young fellows who are riding on the back of open-bed trucks with automatic weapons in their hands. There are people who have had terrifying and exciting times in Iraq for a 19- or 18-year-old.

Would a job in a bakery, would a job fixing potholes or painting schools be enough to lure them off the back of that truck and, in some cases, money that they get from these shady forces inside their own country?

ERIC DAVIS: Well, my own interviews with Iraqi colleagues indicate that the overwhelming majority of those recruited to death squads in urban areas, for example, are rural to urban migrants. Yes, as you mentioned, they get some salary, they get a rifle, they get a uniform, they get the idea of belonging, protection from a group.

But, for example, let's take the Mahdi Army of Muqtada al-Sadr. People in that organization only get sporadic incomes. It's also very dangerous. You might be fighting another militia, such as the Badr organization, or worse the American army or the Iraqi army. So the idea that this type of employment, as it were, in militias is something that can be self-sustaining over a long period of time is not something that really, I think, most militia members realize is going to be the be-all of their entire future. Smaller economic projects


NewsNow: Loading story...

Good find Adam,

Finally, some people with brains are discussing the real issues facing Iraq and what is holding up progress. Like it took any brains to figure out the mindset of the poor in Iraq, and here we are hitting on this months ago, but no one else was even discussing it. It amazes me how little the people in gov. really know about anything regarding the important issues, the PEOPLE.

Poverty is not going away in our lifetimes, and sadly, most of what goes on in Iraq is there for one reason only, POVERTY. Some of us have said from the start, it would have made more sense to offer to pay people not to blow themselves up than to allow them to be paid by insurgents to blow themselves up. Now you tell me, how hard was that to figure out?

Now we have the worlds top economic minds weighing in on subject and now we are hearing what really makes the situation in Iraq so desperate, POVERTY. It is not about more forces, or the 300 billion U.S. has already dumped into country, it is about attacking POVERTY, not the PEOPLE. What a joke our so called leaders are not to recognize this until now. Make me sick to think how stupid those governing really are.

Bottom line, spread the wealth, not just the 10K, but put people to work, pay them to sweep streets if that is what it takes, not just a small payment, but pay them to start cleaning up the mess of so many areas, starting with the most poor of slums, Sadr, which is where most of the current killing originates from. Maliki should be the first on employed as a street sweeper there for he surely showed which side of the street he is on, so where better to use his talent than as a Sadr street sweeper.

As we have all seen, there are so many incompetents in gov it is sickening. It is pure political BS which is holding back progress, and it is very frustrating seeing just how ineffective the gov. has been when more than half do not even show up to vote on important issues. Each should be on the street sweeping brigade rather than be paid $7K per month to do nothing in parliament. I would rather see the street sweepers being paid $7K than these useless illiterates in parliament. (g)

Simply put, spread the wealth around to the poor and the problems of killing will largly be gone. We know the money is there, debts forgiven, oil revenues ready to explode, so lay out a plan of guaranteed gov. employment at a healthy rate and all these problems we have seen are gone overnight, just as was being discussed above. Sure is frustrating to see how long it took for this issue to be discussed openly. Lets hope the so called leaders are listening finally. I hope Talibani runs for PM and they dump Maliki and let him sweep streets in Sadr City where he belongs. (g)

Good luck to all, Mike

Originally Posted by Adster

We need to keep an eye on this and when they're starting to go out. Sounds like they're making excuses for the delays......

I honestly belive the 10k is the key to this.. I cannot believe this country would give out this money to its people and then shortly therafter reval it after they have spent it..if we see the 10k go out without a reval..im guessing were in for a wait.. jmo

Int''l Compact with Ir









US voices support for Int''l Compact with Iraq
US voices support for Int''l Compact with Iraq
01/11/2006
Source: Kuna

The US voiced on Tuesday overall support for the International Compact with Iraq (ICI) in its current state and form.

During a press conference at the conclusion of ICI's fifth and final preparatory meeting which was held in Kuwait, US Deputy Treasury Secretary Robert Kimmit said "I signaled in today's meeting the US government's strong support both for most of the concept of the international compact, also our strong support for the draft as emerged." He added "based on today's successful meeting, I think we are in a position to move to a ministerial level meeting" to enable concluding the compact.

He believed that the amount of international pledges to ICI would be announced during the anticipated ministerial meeting.

He noted that the US has extended Iraq with debt relief, technical assistance, as well as donor assistance for economic development and boosting security bodies.

He said despite political and security difficulties, Iraq's economic progress has made significant progress through a stable currency, sizeable foreign currency reserves and almost back to pre-war levels of oil production, which enabled Iraq to fund a considerable amount of government operations.

However, there was still a gap between their requirements and available resources, which stresses the necessity of ICI, he said.

A number of nations, including the US, have made the decision to write off 100 percent of Iraq's debts, while others wrote off 80 percent, and other nations are closely considering similar write offs that would be decided through bilateral talks, he said.

Kimmit represented the US during this one-day meeting.

Earlier, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Iraq Ambassador Ashraf Qazi said ICI's final adoption would either take place during the end of November or the beginning of December and the final location of the meeting was under consideration.