Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

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D. صلاح الدين حامد*Salah al-Din Hamid *
*خبير اقتصادي* An economic expert
يعاني الاقتصاد العراقي في المرحلة الراهنة من تفاقم الضغوط التضخمية التي تنعكس اثارها السلبية على المواطن العراقي من خلال انخفاض قدرته الشرائية بسبب ارتفاع الاسعار التي تعني انخفاض مقدار السلع والخدمات التي يمكن ان يحصل عليها بنفس مقدار الدخل في فترات مختلفة متتابعة..The Iraqi economy is suffering at the current stage of the aggravation of inflationary pressures reflected a negative effect on the Iraqi citizens through lower purchasing power due to high prices, which means lower amount of goods and services that can be obtained by the same amount of income at different periods consecutive. فعلى سبيل المثال اذا كان المواطن يستطيع الحصول على مجموعة معينة من السلع والخدمات بواسطة دخله المتحقق في عام 2005،For example, if a citizen can get to a certain group of goods and services through income achieved in 2005.


سوف يجد نفسه غير قادر على الحصول على نفس مجموعة السلع والخدمات في عام 2006 بواسطة نفس الدخل نتيجة ارتفاع الاسعار وهذا سيولد شعورا لدى المواطنين بضرورة زيادة دخولهم لمواجهة الارتفاع بالاسعار، ومن ثم تعويض الانخفاض في القيمة الشرائية لدخولهم للمحافظة على نفس مستوى المعيشة الذي كانوا عليه وربما يدفع هذا الشعور الى المطالبة بزيادة الرواتب والاجور وخصوصا الرواتب الحكومية على اساس ان فئة الموظفين الحكوميين لا يمكنهم زيادة رواتبهم كونها محددة بموجب القانون على عكس القطاع الخاص ال ذي يستطيع ان يواجه ارتفاع الاسعار من خلال زيادة الاسعار للسلع والخدمات التي يقدمها.Will find himself unable to access the same set of goods and services in 2006 by the same income as a result of higher prices, this will create a sense of the citizens need to increase their incomes to meet rising prices. It is then offset the decline in the purchasing value of the income to maintain the same standard of living that they were, and possibly this feeling to demand more salaries and wages, especially the government payroll on the basis that government officials can not increase their salaries as defined under the law to reverse the private sector ever could face higher prices by increasing prices of goods and services.
وهنا سوف نحاول ان نوضح الى اي مدى يكون هذا التوجه صحيحا من الناحية الاقتصادية بالنسبة للاقتصاد العراقي!Here we will try to explain to what extent this is true orientation in economic terms for the Iraqi economy! ولو تمت الاستجابة لهذه المطالبات..If they were to respond to these claims. هل ستكون معالجة لسبب ارتفاع الاسعار ام تعامل مع ارتفاع الاسعار.Will the deal because high prices or deal with high prices.
وهنا قد يقول البعض ان هناك دولا تطبق مثل هذا الاجراء فكيف والعراق بلد نفطي وقد ارتفعت اسعار النفط الخام في الاسواق العالمية ما ينعكس على زيادة موارد الدولة المالية ومن ثم قدرتها على زيادة رواتب الموظفين قد يكون هذا القول صحيحا ولكن نعتقد ان شروط تطبيقه قد لا تتوفر في الاقتصاد العراقي على الاقل في الوقت الحاضر، اذ ان هناك شروطا ينبغي توفرها لكي تسمح بتطبيق مثل هذا الاجراء والتي يمكن الاشارة اليها بالاتي:Here, some may say that there are applied such a measure and how Iraq is a country that oil has risen the price of crude oil on international markets reflect on the increase of financial resources of the state and therefore their ability to increase staff salaries might be correct to say this, but we believe that the conditions for its application may not be available in the Iraqi economy, at least at the present time, as there are conditions to be met in order to allow for the application of such a measure, which could be referred to as follows :
1- ان يمثل العاملون في القطاع العام (الدولة) نسبة قليلة من حجم العاملين في الاقتصاد بعبارة اخرى ان يكون حجم العاملين في القطاع الخاص اضعاف العاملين في القطاع العام، ولو نظرنا الى الاقتصاد العراقي نجد ان عدد العاملين في القطاع العام قد تضاعف في السنتين الاخيرتين والذي جاء نتيجة ضعف القطاع الخاص في تشغيل اليد العاملية لاسباب كثيرة لا يسع المجال لذكرها من ناحية وارتفاع رواتب الموظفين العاملين في الدولة ما شكل عامل جذب قوي للمواطنين للتوظيف او العودة الى الوظائف ما ادى الى تضخم حجم العاملين في القطاع العام ومن ثم انخفاض انتاجيتهم.1 - that represents workers in the public sector (state) a low percentage of the volume of workers in other words, the economy should be the size of workers in the private sector weaken workers in the public sector, If we look at the Iraqi economy, we find that the number of workers in the public sector has doubled in the last two years, which was the result of the weakness of the private sector in the operation of the labor Laboring for many reasons can be listed in the one hand and the high salaries of staff in the state form a powerful draw for the citizens of employment or return to jobs led to the inflation of the size of public sector workers and hence low productivity.
2- ان يكون معدل التضخم السنوي بمستوى معتدل لا يزيد على 10% سنويا وعليه تكون الزيادة المطلوبة في الرواتب محدودة ويمكن لوزارة المالية توفيرها، اما ان يكون معدل التضخم بمستوى عال جدا مع تضاعف عدد الموظفين بالقطاع العام وازدياد عدد المتقاعدين ايضا كما هو حاصل في العراق فانه يحتاج الى مبالغ طائلة قد لا تكون وزارة المالية قادرة على توفيرها بالمستوى الذي يوازي معدلات الارتفاع بالاسعار.2 - that the annual inflation rate moderate level of not more than 10% annually and by the required increase in salaries limited and can be provided to the Ministry of Finance, either the inflation rate very high standard with the number of public sector employees and increase in the number of retirees also, as is happening in Iraq, it needs large sums of money may not be the Ministry of Finance is unable to provide the level that is equivalent rates rise in prices.
3- ان تتوفر للدولة القدرة على تأمين الزيادة في الرواتب من مصادر ايرادات محلية مثل زيادة الايرادات الضريبية من خلال تفعيل الضرائب القائمة او فرض ضرائب جديدة او زيادة ايرادات المؤسسات العامة من خلال زيادة اسعار السلع والخدمات التي تقدمها للمواطنين او من خلال اعادة النظر بتخصيص الانفاق من خل ال تقليص بعض جوانب الانفاق العام وتحويلها الى فقرة الرواتب حتى لا تؤدي الزيادة في الرواتب الى زيادة عرض النقد ومن ثم الطلب الكلي ومن ثم ارتفاع الاسعار مرة اخرى ولو عدنا الى الاقتصاد العراقي نجد ان فقرة الرواتب والمكافآت التقاعدية تشكل نسبة لا بأس بها من الانفاق العام واذا اضفنا مبالغ الدعم ال حكومي للمحروقات والبطاقة التموينية والماء والكهرباء والصحة لاصبحت تشكل نسبة كبيرة من الانفاق العام، من ناحية اخرى نجد ان الايرادات المحلية ما زالت ضعيفة سواء الايرادات الضريبية بسبب الاوضاع الامنية وضعف النشاط الخاص الذي يمثل وعاء الضريبة او ايرادات المؤسسات العامة التي تقدم السلع والخدمات والتي اصبح قسم منها بحاجة الى دعم وزارة المالية لتسديد رواتب موظفيها.3-to be available to the State the ability to provide the increase in the salaries of local revenue sources such as increased tax revenue through the activation of existing taxes or impose new taxes or increase the revenue of public institutions through increased prices for goods and services provided to citizens or through reconsideration of the allocation of spending of vinegar some aspects of reducing public expenditure and converted to a salary so that they do not lead to the increase in the salary increase the supply of money and then aggregate demand and thus higher prices again, even back to the Iraqi economy, we find that paragraph salaries and bonuses pensions constitute a considerable amount of public spending and if we add the amounts of support government of fuel, and the ration card, water, electricity and health to become a significant proportion of public expenditure, On the other hand, we find that local revenue is still weak, whether tax revenues because of the security situation and the weakness of private activity, which represents the tax base or the revenue of public institutions that provide goods and services, which has become the need to support them by the Ministry of Finance to pay the salaries of its employees.
من هنا نجد ان زيادة رواتب الموظفين سوف تؤدي الى تحسين المستوى المعاشي للموظفين في الاجل القصير ولكنها سوف تزيد من الضغوط التضخمية في الاجل المتوسط وكما حدث بعد الزيادتين اللتين حصلتا في الرواتب عامي 2003 و 2004

From here we find that the increase in staff salaries would lead to an improvement in the standard of living of its staff in the short term but will increase inflationary pressures in the medium term, as happened after which obtained increases in salaries in 2003 and 2004.

Improving purchasing power by increasing salaries isn't an option either!!

Inflation will increase by this measure while it has to be tackled.

Time to RV I think!!

Originally Posted by Lunar

Kuwait never reprinted their currency.....this site's info is just a scam.

Exactly pure SCAM!!

You send the Dinars and they are gone!!

No reprint. NID is accepted by the people and will be the currency that goes on the World Market.

Not a discussion anymore.

From the other forum:

"Not much news but my friend walked into Chase in town of 4,000 people today and ordered half mil for $380, it'll be here Mon. or Tues. from Phoenix.
(100 mi.) Manager there expects huge returns any day just like most of us!"

I really appreciate all the people who check the banks with all kind of stories. I hope everbody that can keeps on checking the coming weeks. I think more and more good things will come out.

Originally Posted by kiko

From the other forum:

"Not much news but my friend walked into Chase in town of 4,000 people today and ordered half mil for $380, it'll be here Mon. or Tues. from Phoenix.
(100 mi.) Manager there expects huge returns any day just like most of us!"

I really appreciate all the people who check the banks with all kind of stories. I hope everbody that can keeps on checking the coming weeks. I think more and more good things will come out.

Do you need an account with Chase to buy dinar from them?

Originally Posted by mrvgs

Susie don't the people of Alaska get a $1000.00 a year from the state of Alaska from it's oil profits? If we do that in Alaska it's not that far fetched that they would do it in Iraq. They have to do something to bring their country together. Money makes the world go around right?

between one and two grand a year presently per person per year.

Originally Posted by Dinar Cha Ching

Do you need an account with Chase to buy dinar from them?

I don't know I don't use Chase because I live in Spain. I think there are plenty of other members here that can tell you that.

Originally Posted by shotgunsusie

or as ive been calling it the 'maliki plan'

Isn't that an oxy-moron?

Originally Posted by Par77

Not sure this was posted before but here is the lastest update from FreeDinar. Dan has condensed all the important articles into a nice overview!

WOOOOOTTTTTT keeps getting WOOOOOTTTTTTEEEEEERRRRRR

As promised, here are some highlights from last nights call, including the supporting links.

Foreign Investment Law was passed, but has not been enacted. According to sources, it is expected to be enacted around the 10-11th of November. This would allow foreign investors to setup shop in Iraq with the full protection of the Iraqi government. The BIG question is why are they waiting until the 10 or 11th to enact the law?

Here is a link that talks about High Ranking Officials of the Central Bank of Iraq to undergo advanced training in regards to world banking. BIBF to train CBI officials

As we know that the Saudis have been standing at the boarder just waiting to begin investing in Iraq. We here they go.. Saudis to Invest Over SR2 Billion in Iraq

As much as France has done for Iraq during the War (insert your own joke here) they are going to reap some rewards. The door is open to France for Iraq’s Oil.

This was mentioned on last nights call. Just the beginning of oil contracts to be issued. We know of several large companies just waiting in line for their piece of the Oil Pie. Beijing and Tokyo keen to develop oilfields

Finally we get to hear about HOW and WHEN they are going to start giving out the Dinar to their citizens. As it states in the article, “Early next week”. 10,000 Dinar distributions

This is the most important article. We are searching for the exact article that states the November 20th date (we have it, but not a link as of yet). But according to this article Iraq is starting negotiations to begin trade deals with the European Union. The question that needs to be asked is, “Will they go into these negotiations with such a low exchange rate?” We say, NO WAY. Iraq to sign trade agreement with EU

This is a good website in regards to the meeting in Kuwait and the International Compact for Iraq

New article printed today that finally begins to give us a look as to how much Saddam stashed away in Switzerland. Iraqi authorities have made statements that it could be as much as 40 billion USD. We would tend to believe that understated! Swiss Prepare to return Saddam’s loot (Could be has high as 40 billion USD)

There is so much more news that we plan on having another update over the weekend. Keep your chins up, as we think we have finally arrived!

A special thank you to all of our members and customers who supply us with many good links and a good number of rumors as well.

All these guys do, week after week, is regurgitate what has already been posted on this forum. Maybe we can give credit where credit is due, and have Neno conduct a conference call every week, and have Shotgunsusie on as the special guest!

Found the press briefing of 1-11-1006.

I quote a nice statement:

Press Briefing by Tony Snow

"Now, this is what we want, ultimately. The purpose of this war is not for the United States to win it, but for Iraq to win it.

And we are continuing to train, we're continuing to work with them on economic solutions, we're continuing to work with them on the business of getting the international community to get in -- that's the Iraq compact.

We've also been working with them on the business of political reconciliation. All of those are important pieces, and we're doing everything we can to help them out. But again, the stark difference is -- if you're talking about phased redeployment, it means we're trying to get out. It looks like you're trying to save face rather than finish the job."


The Compact will be enacted soon. He confirms that it is all about letting the International community in = International trading = International Currency.

We have the EU Trade Agreement on the 20th.

November is the month of the ROLCLUB!!

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN!!!!
START YOUR ENGINES!!!!

Originally Posted by RollsRoyce

Hey Girl: Hope Mom's doing better . . .

I was gonna call you but decided my fingers needed a bit of a work out . . .

We had several conversations with The Brothers & Uncle Joe & here's my interp. & the jist of the conversations . . . Their date agrees with you . . . THIS SUNDAY, & their AMT. is over $1.50, as it has always been . . .

Here's the Why!!

Point #1 . . . They basically agree with your *bundle* theory . . . and feel that the 10K Monday part is the key . . . They've heard a lot of street talk re: this and think it must / & will come down this time . . .

BTW, last year's gift was only sporatically accepted, this year's [with the r/v rumors] over there, is generating a lot more interest . . . and anticipation . . .

Point #2 . . . Brother 1 confirms Adster's 1's, 2's, 5's, 10's & 20's . . . Indira's postitive he's banging the bank teller / which is where she is sure he got this info . . . he has no way of knowing if all banks have them . . .

Point #3 . . . Re: announcements / etc . . . they just don't know for sure . . . the concensus is that the politicians in Baghdad will seize any oppontunity to jump in front of camera's & microphones . . . but that they may wait till it's listed / & the CBI has posted it . . . They have no way, again, of knowing for sure . . .

Negatives: They've / I've / been wrong before / & we're still dealing with 2nd, & 3rd, hand knowledge . . . Bro 1 was thinking with his small head . . . And Maliki, etc. are unpredictable . . .

Of course You, Adster, Charmed, etc., *Elite-Fact-Finders* all agree that it could happen @ any moment / & I do realize that Adster would prefer that the HC / & the FIL should be announced first / but I think that's the *bundle* theory I mentioned above . . . All they have to do is swing the gavel & they're probably done . . .

Anyway . . . there you are . . . go with it if you wish . . . and if you want to quote me by name that's okay - [ to defer some of the blast-back ], if we're wrong again . . . Because my guys are NOT part of the hand-ful that will make the final call here . . .

All Best . . . RR . . .