Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

An Oil Rush in (Yes) Iraq
The Kurds may be sitting on buried treasure, and foreign firms want to do business
06/11/2006
Source: USNews

In a small townhouse in the financial district here, a high-ceilinged room is packed to capacity with oil executives in dark suits. They are men from all over the world, representing some of the largest multinational oil companies, and they sit in rows like schoolchildren, assiduously taking notes. At the front of the room, the minister of natural resources from the Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq is speaking, his English fluent. On the wall behind him is a large map of potential oil fields in the Kurdish region and the beginning of a PowerPoint presentation that reads, "Oil Can Be a Source of Stability."

The government of Iraq may be far from ready to welcome foreign investment into its oil sector right now but, like it or not, the Kurds are moving ahead. While the government in Baghdad is still haggling over its petroleum law and violence wracks much of the country, the Kurds are about to pass their own oil law. They have already signed contracts with a handful of foreign oil companies, and they're aggressively wooing more. The question now is whether these attempts to sign separate contracts, establish a parallel legal regime, and attract much-needed foreign investment will be a source of stability or instability in a country that knows far too much of the latter and very little of the former.

Money. The dispute over oil goes to the heart of the political debate in Iraq. The Kurdish region, currently the only autonomous region in Iraq, has enjoyed self-rule since 1991. Earlier this month, the Shiite-dominated parliament in Baghdad passed a federalism law, allowing other regions to be formed-but not for another year and a half. The law was hotly debated because although the Shiites would like to create their own zone in their oil-rich heartland in the south, the Sunnis fear being left with only an area in resource-poor central Iraq. An agreement empowers the federal government to receive all oil revenues and redistribute them to the regions according to population and "needs."

But the real question is who gets to sign the contracts and manage the fields. And on this point the Kurds won't budge-Iraq's Constitution, they say, gives them control over so-called future fields (existing fields are controlled by the central government, and the fate of those in Kirkuk will be decided by a referendum next year). "In management of new fields, we are adamant that we will not share with federal authorities," says Ashti Hawrami, an English-trained petroleum engineer who is the new minister of natural resources. "Planning, coordination-no problem. But who has the right to write contracts? We can consult with the center, but the ultimate authority lies with the [Kurds]."

High-level jabs have already been exchanged over the issue. The Iraqi oil minister, Hussain al-Shahristani, has insisted publicly that contracts signed by the Kurdish regional government must be subject to the ministry's review. In response, Kurdish Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani issued a statement that many interpreted as a threat of secession: "The people of Kurdistan chose to be in a voluntary union with Iraq on the basis of the Constitution. If Baghdad ministers refuse to abide by that Constitution, the people of Kurdistan reserve the right to reconsider our choice."

Iraq has the third-largest proven oil reserves in the world, with an estimated 115 billion barrels, and oil companies have salivated over the country's potential since Saddam Hussein's regime fell in 2003. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 90 percent of Iraq's regions are unexplored, with only about 2,000 wells drilled, compared with about 1 million in Texas alone. But the industry has been in terrible shape for the past 20-some years. International sanctions against Saddam's regime meant that the infrastructure was not upgraded. Oil experts think that if international expertise were brought in and facilities modernized, Iraq could produce up to 4 million barrels per day (which is what it produced in 1990, before the invasion of Kuwait). "Iraq's entry into the market will change the entire global oil game," says Ed Chow, a longtime oil consultant who used to work for Chevron.
And that is what is so tempting for the oil companies. In the London townhouse, after the presentations, the questions come quickly from the audience, as much flattery as inquiry. "Congratulations," one oil company rep tells Hawrami. "When can we come negotiate with you?" His answer: "It's first come, first served. We welcome entrepreneurs, but we want structured companies with experience, who offer something we don't have ourselves."

Reserves. Oil companies say that though there are no producing oil fields in the Kurdish territory, initial exploration has shown geological structures similar to large oil fields in other parts of Iraq. The Kurdish government claims 25 billion barrels of proven reserves in the north, plus 20 billion barrels of potential reserves. A Norwegian company, DNO, began drilling last November and discovered its first well this spring. While there is much more oil in the south, the violence there prevents those reserves from being exploited now.

The Kurds themselves marvel at the change in international reaction to their advances. "Five to six months ago, no one would shake hands with a Kurd," says Hawrami. But in May, the Kurdish government created the Ministry of Natural Resources and appointed the minister. In July, Kurdish legislators passed an investment law, which spells out foreign investors' rights. And last month the Kurds published the final version of their own petroleum law. The regional government intends to move it through the Kurdish parliament this month-despite being asked by the United States to hold off for the sake of national reconciliation. The Kurds have signed four contracts with foreign oil companies, and the government's website says it "expects a large-scale licensing round following the passage of the act."
Downstairs, over bites of salmon and pasta, the oil executives feel one another out warily. One congratulates another on a just signed production-sharing agreement. Another group discusses options for doing seismic testing in Kurdistan (there are only two operators there now, both Chinese). Representatives from two major oil companies chat with a British government official. One was preparing to go to Kurdistan but decided to stay in order to meet with Hawrami. "What stage is the central government at with its petroleum law, anyway?" one asks. "I'm not sure," answers the other. "I guess if there's a conflict, that would make things complicated."
'
That's the consensus view. The U.S. government has expressed concern about companies investing in Kurdistan before the rest of Iraq is ready. "If the Kurds pass their own law, it definitely complicates things-the opportunity for cooperation probably diminishes," says one senior U.S. official. "But it's a great negotiation tactic-you offer something up that's your ideal and then go from there."

To the Kurds, however, their law is most definitely not just a starting point. In fact, though they are involved in the negotiations over the central hydrocarbons law, Kurdish officials say it will not mean much to the region. "Not for investing in Kurdistan, it doesn't," says Hawrami. "But it does matter for the Kurdish people, because we need our fair share of revenue from the rest of the regions!"

So the companies are going with what is available now. Hawrami comes into the room after having had private discussions with one company and is instantly mobbed. Tibor Szatmari, the CEO of a Hungarian oil company that is the largest in Central Europe, waits to talk with him. When he gets an opening, he thrusts his company's annual report into the minister's hands. He admits that he's desperate to get one of these contracts. "If you wait until the situation is absolutely clear, you'll never go," Szatmari explains. "So you take a calculated risk."

Especially if you don't expect to be entering Baghdad anytime soon. "There's a paralysis in the central government," says one former senior U.S. official who quit to start a company that is now investing in Kurdistan. "It's the cultural baggage of the old regime-no one can make a decision without consulting the top guy."

So what's next? A mess, perhaps, as the Kurds press ahead despite Baghdad's explicit protests. Hawrami finishes his presentation on an upbeat note-and just the hint of a threat. "We will soon be awarding new contracts, perhaps on the strength of the new law," he says. "If you come to Kurdistan, we guarantee that you can go to Basra and work as well. After all, who's going to block you?"

http://www.iraqdirectory.com/DisplayNews.aspx?id=2503

I guess in my opinion is another option.

FIL should be enacted this week as they said but we know they can delay as the best.

If we look at the "rumor" or "statement" that the BoA will trade in the Dinar from the 13th and we suppose it is true than they still have the Sunday the 12th.

They handout the 10,000 dinar at the end of the week which can be collected from sunday and they enact the FIL on Sunday and they RV at the same time.

I hope they do it sooner but I think it could be another option.

Originally Posted by shotgunsusie

the majority of revalues have taken place on a wednesday for anyone who wondered that little bit of trivia.

I think wed would be a wonderful day for a reval sgs
sarah!!!GO DINAR GO!!!

Was that the announcement or the actual declaration made day?

Originally Posted by shotgunsusie

the majority of revalues have taken place on a Wednesday for anyone who wondered that little bit of trivia.

Was that the announcement or the actual declaration made day?

Talking about your Wednesday

SGS

Does anyone have a link to the Gazette...for some reason I am not able to find it.

Sorry Neno.

Originally Posted by shotgunsusie

the majority of revalues have taken place on a wednesday for anyone who wondered that little bit of trivia.

Tomorrow sounds like a winner to me..that way the Dems can't say that the reval was election related...Oh, that is sweet....yep I think tomorrow....I was really hoping for today but of course I was really hoping for last July....tomorrow makes sense. Susie you little detective you...bet your probably right and they can do it a few days before the month wait of the fil and not say they just let the clock run down and the fil enact on it's own. Tomorrow looks extremely promising. Come on big reval tomorrow.

Originally Posted by shotgunsusie

the majority of revalues have taken place on a wednesday for anyone who wondered that little bit of trivia.

What's your source for this Susie? What countries are we talking about here and how many times? Thanks.

Posted by: saleem on Tuesday, November 07, 2006 - 01:16 PM

Iraq-Currency
Highest dinar rate to dollar in 2006-Central Bank
By Dergham Mohammed Ali
Baghdad, Nov 7, (VOI) – The demand for dollar at the Iraqi Central Bank daily auction was on Tuesday the highest through year 2006 while the Iraqi dinar scored its highest exchange rate to the dollar, fetching 1,468 dinars compared to 1,470 dinars in the previous session.
Demand was up $39 million to $109.150 million from $70 on Thursday, the bank said in its daily statement.
The bank covered bids which were $41.650 million in cash and $67.500 million in foreign transfers.
Three banks that bid for dollars at Tuesday’s auction offered to sell $3 million at an exchange rate of 1466 dinars to the dollar.
The expert Abdul-Razzaq al-Ibaychi told VOI : “The highest demand for dollar was attributed to the five day recess of the Iraqi Central Bank daily auction due to the curfew imposed on Baghdad.”
Another factor to the highest demand for dollar was the rise in foreign transfers as people feared a more deteriorated security in Iraq after a death verdict was delivered on Sunday by the Iraqi high criminal court against the former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein, he added.

Gazette.

Translated version of http://www.uruklink.net/iqlaw/

The Presidency ratified the Act to amend the prosecution

(Voice of Iraq) - 07-11-2006
This issue was sent to a friend

The Presidency ratified the Act to amend the Public Prosecution

November 7, 2006
Sadik of the Presidency Council, Assembly at its meeting on 2 / 11 / 2006 Act to amend the Public Prosecution (No. 159) for 1979, issued by Law No. (10) of 2006.
This had led law and the signing of the Vice-President Adel Abdel Mahdi and Vice President Tariq Al-Hashmi, With Mr. Adel Abdel Mahdi signed on behalf of the President of the Republic, Jalal Talabani, to travel outside the country.
And following is the text of the law :

The name of the people
The Presidency
Based on the approved by the House of Representatives in accordance with the provisions of paragraph of the first article, first session of the Constitution, based on the provisions of paragraph (V / a) of article one hundred eight and the 30th of the Constitution.
Council decided the presidency Assembly at its meeting on 2 / 11 / 2006 issued the following law :

No. (10) of 2006
Act to amend the Public Prosecution (No. 159) of 1979
* Article (1) :
The members of the public prosecution service who continue to judges according to grades and approval of related items and seniority and positions that are upon the issuance of this law, and the provisions apply to them that apply to judges and enjoy all the rights and privileges of the judges.

* Article (2) :
Significant years of service of members of the public prosecution dodger Article (1) of this law, and kinds, and their seniority for the purposes of the application of the provisions of the OJ No. (160) for 1979.

* Article (3) :
Members of the public prosecution continue to whom the provisions of this law to perform functions prescribed by the law of Public Prosecutions (No. 159) of 1979.

* Article (4) :
Amend paragraph, first-article (1) of the Act, read as follows :
The protection and security of the State and its institutions and ensure democracy and the best interests of the people, the preservation of state funds.

* Article (5) :
Paragraph II of the article (1) of the Act, read as follows :
Support the federal system, protect and founded and concepts in the context of respect for legitimacy, and respect for the application of the law.

* Article (6) :
Amend paragraph of Article III (1) of the Act, read as follows :
Contributing with the judiciary and the relevant bodies in the rapid detection of criminal acts and to urgently resolve the issues and avoid undue delay of trials, particularly those affecting the security of the state and its democratic federal.

* Article (7) :
Paragraph II of the Article (42) of the Act, read as follows :
Exercise member of the public prosecution work after taking the oath as follows (swear to Almighty God that I will work and functions in the best possible way and to spend between people right and justice and apply the laws faithfully and with integrity and impartiality, and to God what to say martyr)

* Article (8) :
Delete paragraph VI of Article 49 of the law.

* Article (9) :
First : replace term popular assemblies and social organizations, civil society organizations wherever contained in the Act.
Second : Delete the following words wherever contained in this law (the revolution's goals. the Socialist Party, the Council of Justice, Abu Ghraib)

* Article (10) :
This law implemented from the date of its publication in the Official Gazette.

Tariq Al-Hashmi Adel Abdel Mahdi, Jalal Talabani
Vice-President of the Republic Vice President President (Acting signature)