Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Originally Posted by MunnyBaggs

Originally Posted by doublescorpio
I have seen you preach your "models" on several forums....its the same every time ....no high reveal because of the 25% requirement on the CBI web site. Paynes1 showed how the current events in iraq are very similar to the Marshall Plan that was used in Germany in the 60's...SDR'S and the amount that is available to help Iraq...but you never take that into consideration...only your "models". It seems whenever I log in now I have to read your new and improved "models" when it is the same tired theories you have been preaching for a year.
Please go back to AD



I'm aware the current Iraqi plan is largely based on the Germany Marshal plan. I also know there are ways to make this re-val much higher than my projections. But none of those methods have been shown to be a proven fact. If Iraq is allowed to use the mysterious "Swiss gold" and the CBI/IMF states that gold is really available of course that would be a fact that would change my view and my model. If the HCL allows Iraq to re-val based on oil futures again that would increase the values we are talking about here. Also there has to be new denominations for anything over .17. Anything near $1 might need an entire new denominations printing and for certain $2 or more wipes out the current 17 Trillion Dinar printed currency. You'd need a complete new set. And another thing that would be needed in place would be a stipulation by foreign banks they won't demand immediate "cash out" by the CBI when thousands of people across the World come to local banks to cash out literally billions of IQD into USD. If that safeguard is not in place, Iraq would be bankrupt overnight. So yes my model is far from perfect and a work in process. But the othe theories still haven't had all these tiny details sewn up as of yet either. Instead of attacking one theory or another, why not explore each and let the good reader decide for themselves? Let's wait and see what happens with the end of 06' right on our doorsteps and then keep adjusting and searching for new clues. I'm postive on this investment and as of tonight I still believe I will retire on this thing. I just see it happening a bit slower based on my own research.

the amount is 4.3 T . look in history for the links.

Originally Posted by crave681

Just wanted to see what your take was on this analysis, given that your model points to an rv after the enacted HCL, and not FIL. thanks in advance...

First off to be clear once again. A re-val could happen at any time. I'm not saying the HCL has to come first. But the HCL could allow Iraq to use oil futures to back it's currency. That would allow a far higher value than the current limit of 25% foreign currency reserve requirements. I don't know if it will re-val because of or near HCL. I'm just saying it might re-val higher because of the HCL. As far as MsCK's analysis I find it to be insightful and well thought out. But like the multiple F.I.L.s I've read from other World nations I do not see any specific reference to the increasing of currency value. FILs are meant to protect property rights and assets of a country. They don't generally intermingle with a Central Bank's operations. Maybe Iraq will be the first though. We shall soon see.

Here's a good overview of what FILs are usually about:

http://alca-ftaa.iadb.org/eng/invest/PREFACE.HTM#SCO

Boring to read through but it does cover the basics.

Originally Posted by mike brown

i hear a lot about the 50% inflation rate, what happens if they did a high R/V, infation would then be under control, how, please explain.. thx

By increasing the currency exchange rate they in effect give the Iraqis more purchasing power. The merchants can import goods at lower costs and Iraqis benefit. Another method is to raise interest rates which they have tried with some fair amount of success. It's a pretty delicate balance but CBI has already stated they will implement a higher IQD value strategy.

Originally Posted by neno

A Big shift in the Government. The "Democrates" have won the House.

GoodNight.

Potentially bad news. Iraq needs to start stepping it up ASAP security wise. These guys could start stripping away funding for this Iraq war. We have time, but depending on what they do it may not be as much as we had hoped. I won't even mention how I feel about Donald Rumsfeld at this point.

Originally Posted by MunnyBaggs

Potentially bad news. Iraq needs to start stepping it up ASAP security wise. These guys could start stripping away funding for this Iraq war. We have time, but depending on what they do it may not be as much as we had hoped. I won't even mention how I feel about Donald Rumsfeld at this point.

the only funding we are doing is for the troops and im very sure we arent going to take money away from our troops unless we pull them out entirely.
all usa funding for iraq stopped at the end of august wasnt it?

Originally Posted by shotgunsusie

Iraq may sign oil deals before oil law enacted | Iraq Updates

found the story, check the date.

They don't seem like they are the same stories or links...

Click here on this yahoo search link and look down at #4

Hydrocarbon Law Iraq - Yahoo! Search Results

Originally Posted by shotgunsusie

the amount is 4.3 T . look in history for the links.

Per any Central Bank regulation a Central Bank must employ complete transparency. M2 is listed here http://www.cbiraq.org/Monetary%20Aggregates.xls on the official CBI website. It states M2 at 17 Trillion IQD. That was as of May 2006. Now we do know CBI stated that in June they stopped printing IQD. This is good news and an early indication they intended to raise the IQD value. If you look at the chart you can see some months where the total IQD dropped. From October of 2005 to November 05 it dropped around 779 Billion. Notes wear out and are either replaced or discarded. We can estimate the total "drop" since they stopped printing in June by using this number as an approximation. That would be 779 X 5 = 3,895 Trillion. 17,165 - 3,895 = 13,270 Trillion. So in a "best case" scenario we could actually be down to 13,270,000,000,000 Trillion IQD. That's good news if they continue to draw down that M2 level.

so when do we think this rv will hit now
gov went down hill hope the dinar doesnt

Let me ask a question, do you think if you walked into any (BoA, Chase, or Wells Fargo) bank on 5th and Main Street (or where ever people are going to cash in their IQD) with a suit case of a million US dollars in $100 bills that they would credit your account right there and then.

I don't think so. That kind of money get's "processed" at central locations. Plus a currency that very few people have experience in with a high value, will be "processed" in a few locations as was mentiioned by others. I used to go to a restuarant that was located by one of these buildings/centers. It had enough security and barbed wire to make Fort Knox look like a piggy bank (not really).

To the people who say they would fly/drive to a bank that would authenticate it in front of them... Do you really want to be carrying that kind of money around on you unprotected (unless you carry "heat"). Not me.

I will park my IQD in a bank safety box at BoA. If my BoA does not have a good rate or can not do the transaction, I would have the new bank arrange a pickup with a insured & bonded carrier (armed car or service). Most businesses that move over $5,000 - 10,000 on a regular (daily) basis have armored/bonded service.

Last week I almost landed on the floor laughing when somebody said that a bank would Fedex the IQD to NY (or wherever).

Another thing, I will test a bank with let's say 10% of my cashing in to see if all goes well. Maybe I will even do 2 banks (Chase & BoA) at the same time to see the amount received.

As always, just my 2 cents.
Dinarstars