Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

There seems to be a disagreement over what the auction results mean. As I see it there are two options.

#1 They are buying dinars and placing USDs in the local banks. This reduces the amount of dinar in the economy and if I read the numbers right, they have bought close to 340B USD of dinar in the last four auctions. A very large amount.

#2 They are buying dollars and placing an additional large amount of dinar into the economy.

Option #1 is my choice. This is consistent with reducing inflation and since they have large currency reserves and oil income, they are reducing the quanity of money in the economy that is consistent with inflation being too much money chasing too few goods. Quantity money theory has been around since the 1970s and was advocated by Milton Friedman the economist as a result of the double digit inflationary period in the US in the 1970s. If they were following option #2, then they would be flooding the economy with dinar, and to keep this policy up they would reduce the value of the money and eventually it would be worthless (even more than now). Placing USDs in the local banks is consistent with an eventual RV. It anticipates local demand for USDs if the currency RVs, reduces the quantity of money in the economy and maybe is the first step towards removing the large denominations from the economy. "Printing money" is a sure sign of an impending economic disaster. I think when the IMF stated that monetary controls needed to be in place was talking about this very issue. Reducing the amount of money in circulation is just like a company using its profits and buying its stock back to decrease the amount of stock in circulation resulting in a higher value for the stock in circulation. Buying dinars is also consistent with a slowly rising exchange rate. If they were flooding the economy with dinars, you would expect the exchange rate to move the other direction. So I am optimistic.

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Political first : Maliki listen to the observations of the House and the answer is on Sunday

Bloc chest propose to change the Prime Minister and 13 ministers at the closed meeting yesterday Baghdad-Sabah Sources inside the House of Representatives told (morning) that the Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki expressed support for the proposal put forward bloc chest a quick cabinet reshuffle. It reported that al-Maliki said during a closed meeting with the House of Representatives yesterday : he inclined to that view. The language of the cabinet reshuffle has escalated in the recent period in the wake of criticism poor performance of some ministries or administrative corruption are widespread. An MP Hassan Al-Sunaid more than once that Maliki will soon amendments ministerial But speaking from inside the House of Representatives refused to be Maliki has elaborated in the discussion of this issue at the closed meeting yesterday, said : What can be told by the state (morning) : is that the Council discussed the issues of security services and the presence of the Prime Minister. For his part, MP Bahaa Al-Araji, in a statement addressed by the (morning) yesterday : The bloc called for changing the chest 13 ministers including ministers from the bloc. In a related context, deputy Mahmoud Othman from the Kurdistan Alliance that the meeting yesterday was confined to the extension of the emergency law for another month after that putting Mr. Prime Minister and Minister of Defense and Interior convincing reasons for such an extension, also heard Mr. Prime Minister of the proposals and complaints of members of the parliament on government performance and lack of some episodes governmental organizations in providing better services. Osman said : that Maliki listened well to the proposals and observations and below in the hope that the answers to attend the second in the parliament next Sunday to provide the answers. And the Congress voted unanimously yesterday to extend the emergency law for another month and rose meeting to be held today, Thursday, to discuss the agenda yesterday. So spokesman said yesterday, Wednesday, the Iraqi government : it is expected that the ministerial changes are expected before the end of this year. He explained to Mr. Skinner News Agency (Voices of Iraq) independent of the response that there are lumps of change, contrary to what was happening in the past. He added : the government wants to achieve high efficiency in performance, But would not change the Prime Minister but because it blocks a political agreement, I expect that the change before the end of this year.

Hum both of these sites have dropped by 2 on the dinars
rate

Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate Daily News
1465.3 shows down by 2
Currency Rates
1467.20 this is also down by 2 according to their site.

I know their both different #'s but both sites show a drop by 2, that's the most movement I've see on these sites. They had been stuck at the same # for quite some thime now.

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Political first : people hung appealing to the government to intervene to put an end to attacks

The city exposed to mortar shelling resulted in the deaths of more than 50 victims Baghdad-Safaa Hadi Appealed to the people of the region hung in the Baghdad government and the security forces to intervene and find a solution to their suffering by targeting the area with mortars for the fourth consecutive day. Dr. Hadi al Kaemmegam eliminate hung, told (morning) that the judiciary and the surrounding areas since four days exposed to attacks by the fall of mortar shells by claiming the lives of more than fifty citizens and about 80 wounded. He explained that the target of correspondence and appeals addressed to the Prime Minister and other stakeholders in this regard did not respond, which led to the worsening of the security situation in this region, which witnessed a fall of more than 60 mortar shells over the past four days the last nine shells revive sporadic yesterday afternoon Wednesday automatic. Eyewitnesses described in contact with them by telephone (morning) streets of the area seemed to be almost as free as committed residents of homes for fear of causing more of these missiles. They added that the mosques hours distress calls, urging citizens through loudspeakers to donate blood to save the wounded, who were killed by these acts were transported by ambulances and police to a hospital Naman. The Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki ordered the Ministries of Defense, Interior and the joint forces to track the process of firing mortar shells at areas of Baghdad and to take the necessary action in connection therewith, With a spokesman for the Interior Ministry, Brigadier Abdul Karim Khalaf told (morning) : The ministry lacked the technical capabilities to know the sources of these missiles and do not have information in this regard the fact that all these areas under the responsibility of the Ministry of Defense. And Brigadier Khalaf said that seven regions in Baghdad yesterday was the fall of a number of mortar shells killed six people and injuring about 34 others injured. That led to the Association of Muslim Scholars, government and the occupation forces are responsible for the armed militias destroyed a mosque and burned ten promising and successive attacks on the city hung. A statement by the Authority received (morning) copy : armed groups committed to the destruction of a mosque burned and explosive charges after that happened earlier in the same day detention guards Whole of the occupation forces.

Originally Posted by Wm.Knowles

There seems to be a disagreement over what the auction results mean. As I see it there are two options.

#1 They are buying dinars and placing USDs in the local banks. This reduces the amount of dinar in the economy and if I read the numbers right, they have bought close to 340B USD of dinar in the last four auctions. A very large amount.

#2 They are buying dollars and placing an additional large amount of dinar into the economy.

Option #1 is my choice. This is consistent with reducing inflation and since they have large currency reserves and oil income, they are reducing the quanity of money in the economy that is consistent with inflation being too much money chasing too few goods. Quantity money theory has been around since the 1970s and was advocated by Milton Friedman the economist as a result of the double digit inflationary period in the US in the 1970s. If they were following option #2, then they would be flooding the economy with dinar, and to keep this policy up they would reduce the value of the money and eventually it would be worthless (even more than now). Placing USDs in the local banks is consistent with an eventual RV. It anticipates local demand for USDs if the currency RVs, reduces the quantity of money in the economy and maybe is the first step towards removing the large denominations from the economy. "Printing money" is a sure sign of an impending economic disaster. I think when the IMF stated that monetary controls needed to be in place was talking about this very issue. Reducing the amount of money in circulation is just like a company using its profits and buying its stock back to decrease the amount of stock in circulation resulting in a higher value for the stock in circulation. Buying dinars is also consistent with a slowly rising exchange rate. If they were flooding the economy with dinars, you would expect the exchange rate to move the other direction. So I am optimistic.

I like reading your posts....I have been tracking the last 4 auctions and posted information for easy comparison. Hopefully we can find a trend or realm of reason. Click link in my siggy to go to tracking info.

Iraqis cheer Rumsfeld departure - Yahoo! News

Iraqis cheer Rumsfeld departure By SAMEER N. YACOUB, Associated Press Writer
18 minutes ago



BAGHDAD, Iraq - Iraqis on Thursday cheered the resignation of U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, blaming him for policy failures and scandals they say helped spawn the daily sectarian carnage wracking their nation.

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"Rumsfeld's resignation shows the scale of the mess the U.S. has made in Iraq," said Ibrahim Ali, 44, who works at the Oil Ministry. "The efforts by American politicians to hide their failure are no longer working."

Iraq's government has yet to comment on Rumsfeld's resignation, announced Wednesday after the Democratic Party won a sweeping victory in midterm elections in which voter discontent over the war in Iraq played a major role.

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has in recent weeks grown increasingly critical of U.S. policies and pushed for his government to assume more responsibility for security from U.S.-led coalition forces.

Many in Baghdad said they expect changes in the U.S. approach under Rumsfeld's expected replacement, former CIA director Robert Gates.

"I think that there will a shift in the U.S. policy in Iraq after his resignation," said Osama Ahmed, 50, a civil servant.

What changes could be in store aren't yet clear, although ideas for a new strategy are being studied by an independent U.S. commission led by former Secretary of State James A. Baker III and former Democratic Rep. Lee Hamilton of Indiana. The White House says it is opposed to two prominent options — the partitioning of Iraq or a phased withdrawal of troops.

Whatever suggestions are put forward, however, Iraqis said Rumsfeld's departure was a positive move.

"Rumsfeld's resignation is a good step because he failed to keep security in Iraq," said Saad Jawad, 45, a former army officer who also works at the Oil Ministry.

Many Iraqis blamed Rumsfeld for spurring the emergence of Sunni insurgents and Shiite militias by disbanding the former Iraqi army following the April 2003 toppling of the former government of Saddam Hussein.

Although that order was actually issued by former top U.S. administrator in Iraq, L. Paul Bremer, such sentiments show how widely Rumsfeld is identified with failed policies in Iraq.

"I am happy with Rumsfeld's resignation because he played a major role in disbanding the former Iraqi army. He participated in building the new army on a sectarian basis," said Louai Abdel-Hussein, 48, a Shiite who owns a small grocery in Baghdad.

Ahmed, the civil servant, said Rumsfeld should also be held responsible for crimes by American forces in Iraq, particularly the abuse of Iraqis at Abu Ghraib prison that became known in 2004.

"Rumsfeld's resignation is not enough," Ahmed said. "He should be put under investigation for his responsibility in the crimes committed in Abu Ghraib and the killings and rapes carried out by U.S. soldiers against Iraqi citizens, he said.

Rumsfeld had twice previously offered his resignation to Bush — once during the Abu Ghraib scandal and again shortly after that. Both times the president refused to let him leave.

Sentiments toward the resignation among the roughly 140,000 U.S. troops in Iraq weren't widely known, although Col. Al Kelly, commander of 1st Battalion, 17th Infantry Regiment, said he didn't see it as "either positive or negative at this point."

"There are a lot of decisions that he's made that people aren't happy with," Kelly told Associated Press Television News in Taji, just north of Baghdad.

"But he made some hard decisions and when you're in that kind of position, you're not always going to be ... liked by everybody," Kelly said.

Originally Posted by day dreamer

Hum both of these sites have dropped by 2 on the dinars
rate

Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate Daily News
1465.3 shows down by 2
Currency Rates
1467.20 this is also down by 2 according to their site.

I know their both different #'s but both sites show a drop by 2, that's the most movement I've see on these sites. They had been stuck at the same # for quite some thime now.

This is good however IMO it doesn't mean too much. The CBI has changed their rate everyday this week but what we need is for the Dinar to start being traded on the FOREX. It is a positive step though :-)

Can you believe something like that??

"The estimates are that $8-10bn of Iraq's budgets will go unspent because of Iraq's lack of capacity to spend that money," he said.

Unbelievable!
People are starving and they DON'T HAVE THE CAPACITY TO SPEND $$8-10 BILLIONS?

Here is the article: Iraq corruption 'costs billions'

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Economic : inflation disadvantage of development and economic prosperity.
in Iraq in the blockade because of the printing and issuance of banknotes, checks, which led to the collapse of the value of the Iraqi dinar and the arrival rate of one dollar to 3250 dinars, but Iraqis and, more than that in some cases. The war in addition to the factors there were other reasons for the inflation in Iraq : - One-the independence of monetary policy from fiscal policy because of the independence of the Central Bank of Iraq and the use of stabilization policies and the wrong action at the present time. Two-financial policy in Iraq is unable to withdraw cash in the market, but lead to an increase in the money supply any increase the cash in circulation. Three-economic theory did not apply to the Iraqi economy because sources of revenue, most from an external source is the export of crude oil, while very few domestic sources therefore increase the sources of foreign currency, because the Ministry of Finance to sell the dollar to the Central Bank buys and the Iraqi dinar to spend on expenses ef Ware in the economy and this action lead to increased criticism of the Iraqi dinar, resulting in increased inflation and not reducing and this is what is happening now already. Regarding ways of dealing with inflation and the possibilities of war. Says Inflation can be addressed through the most significant fiscal policy and monetary policy and fiscal policy is of particular importance in the fight against inflation and is a policy the following actions : - One-reducing government spending : - it is clear that the expenditure of the government includes two types of expenditure are : - A current-current expenditure is expenditure Expenditure Provisions of the normal annual spending budget investment, which aims to build capacity and develop any productive establishment of the institutions and the establishment of roads, bridges, harbors, airports, dams, land reclamation and others. The total Matnafqah government is part of the total aggregate demand (total expenditure) Therefore, the reduction of public spending means reducing aggregate demand is مايءدي to reduce inflation and curb inflationary effects, we should focus on reducing current expenditure and not investment. Two-increasing taxes : the tax is one of the means used in the face of inflation to prevent the growing rates and targeting tax here to absorb a portion of income available for spending either through taxes on income and wealth tax is direct or through taxes imposed on goods and services produced is tax-Almbach This is the danger of the means of the most effective ways to address the inflation factors they limit the purchasing power of individuals and entities influencing marginal propensity to consume and therefore reduce consumer spending, which مايعني reduce aggregate demand, which has a direct influence on inflation. Therefore, Dharibhadah used to put pressure on aggregate demand, which has caused the creation of the phenomenon of inflation or monetary policy was used in the fight against inflation, by identifying the IMF as well as many of the States intervene directly to curb inflation by setting prices for goods and services and wages, and others. Here it must be noted that fiscal and monetary policies must serve each other and in the same direction to contribute to dealing with the phenomenon of inflation because they Herman, in the words of one building. And on the best ways and means that could be followed to reduce the aggravation of the crisis of war inflation finds the need for a series of important measures of them. 1. Achieving a balance between market supply Monetary any criticism pumps on the market and cash withdrawn from the market are estimated amount of cash purchased from the Finance Ministry by the Central Bank of Iraq and for the Central Bank to withdraw that money supply through Fradat daily currency to the dollar. 2. Should the public sector contribution in the withdrawal of cash from circulation by raising wages and collecting water, electricity and other services and the operation of supermarkets. 3. State revenues revitalize the local non-oil exports. 4. The revitalization of agricultural and industrial production any reactivation of the public sector, which should lead the process and that the private sector is estimated to achieve a solution and to contribute to the process because of the flight of the private sector to its neighbors Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. The war that inflation has serious economic and social can be summarized as follows : 1. The redistribution of income : The high price levels lead to a reduction in the purchasing power of individuals who have not changed their cash, especially those with limited income (staff) who make up the vast majority of society, while the businessmen and owners of production units and owners and the real estate speculators and others who are in the minority community will lead to a for inflation to increase Madjulathm and works on the redistribution of income for them. 2. The impact of inflation in the social welfare and economic growth : inflation reduces the potential of achieving prosperity and economic growth because it would cause turbulent atmosphere reduce the rush of investors and businessmen about the investment opportunities because of fears of continued high inflation rates, which lead to the collapse of the value of money and reflects the negative effects of total economic activity, which affects Nah er in the process of economic growth.

Views : press leaks and the manner pressure

Aziz Alkhikani It is known that the Western press, including the American press is essentially dependent on the financing of the different parties and independent newspapers have a financial dependence on self-financing and use different methods to continue to publish without interruption and the most important use of sensationalism in the dissemination of news and the idea of putting the controversy to attract the reader to search for a newspaper Some newspapers were funded currents rightist, leftist and be close to some governments in terms of dependence on the news that relate to these governments. Therefore, a lot of American and British newspapers leaking a lot of information about the plans of the two governments on the situation in Iraq, and this is what common daily through the many ideas put forward end is the delivery of multiple messages to the Iraqi government on the extent of the controversy in the political and economic circles in the United States, Britain, and how Walt Defeat to the problems facing the two governments and ways to confront the currents of anti-interference in Iraq, and the extent of the investigation, which happened in the Millennium strategic outlook posed by the two governments through their intervention in Iraq. The American government now bear considerable pressure from lobby opposition to the war in Iraq in addition to the period of time that followed the fall of Saddam's regime and so far there has been no development has taken place in all aspects of political and economic life in Iraq. Iraq is mired in political confusion and chaos were not in the accounts of politicians Americans sacrificed despite the achievements of the Iraqi people in holding elections and the writing of the constitution and the referendum which is calculated remarkable achievements of the Iraqi people, but political leaders were not up to the responsibility to carry the burdens and the heavy legacy And Or political vision successful in dealing with things the way in which the transfer of the country from the state of the totalitarian dictatorship to build a state based on religious institutions on the basis of democratic elements in building strategic outlook addition to the many mistakes that took place in the American government in how to deal with a country such as Iraq accumulated those mistakes, which led to the use of those problems and the inability to solve them. All these reasons and other reasons why many of the Western press, the movement of media leaks to the press may be some there may be non-existent or are original and this is part of the policy of some countries to reach a particular goal might be deliberately designed to be used as a pressure card on the Iraqi government to take bold decisions hungry show him to be able to impose security in Iraq have been published by the media leaks many including the formation of the government of national saving and that there are plans by the American administration to change its policy in Iraq, and cited specific points in and some of the leaks went to a sudden withdrawal from Iraq by American and other leaks that there is a Enkelaba led by the leaders of Iraqi political cooperation with the American administration and the disruption of the Parliament and impose new agendas essentially dependent on the neighboring countries in direct intervention in Iraqi affairs. It may be in this kind of health leaks in the political thinking of some American politicians, but not primarily to be a taking, but as a means to end the movement of messages to Iraqi politicians on the extent of the aforementioned situation is happening in Iraq. Or it may be one of the methods releases raised by newspapers from time to time, and the end of its extensive controversy in the political circles of American and British evidence is denied some of those leaks from the top leaders in the two countries.

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