Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

After reading many many posts about upcoming dates and events, is it safe to say that the 10K distribution will not happen within the next few days? Without the distribution there does not seem IMO to be any rush to reval the dinar am I correct in my thoughts? It seems Maliki is enjoying his position so much that there doesn't seem to be any real reason to change the status quo in the near future. SGS can you help by giving your insight and opinion to these two issues. Thank you

Do we still believe that FIL will become inacted automatically after 30 days?

Some old news on
Iraqi Dinars | Iraqi News and Iraqi Money

say that it has been approved by the Parliament on Oct 12.

"The Parliament approved the investment law yesterday ( the article is dated Oct 13) after discussions lasted nearly two weeks."

Any takers on that?

Originally Posted by Frank Rizzo

Here is the Kurds HCL law...pdf...learn it, know it, live it...

http://web.krg.org/pdf/Kurdistan_Act...tober_2006.pdf


I haven't gone through it yet, but I bet it's gonna be similar to Iraq's...


This pdf supposedly explains it...

http://web.krg.org/pdf/EM_Kurdistan_...tober_2006.pdf


Here's a dancing bananna too...

I agreed with you a few posts back but seems we are wrong.

Iraq: Kurdish Oil Law Poses Problem For Baghdad (RFE/RL)
On October 22, the Kurdish regional government published a final draft of the petroleum law. The draft document is to be debated within the regional assembly and, if passed, it would place the region's government in opposition to the central government in Baghdad, which has indicated that it will publish its own completed hydrocarbon law sometime in December or early 2007.

Read the whole article here:
Iraq: Kurdish Oil Law Poses Problem For Baghdad | Iraq Updates

Iraq: Kurdish Oil Law Poses
Problem For Baghdad | Iraq Updates

On October 22, the Kurdish regional government published a final draft of the petroleum law. The draft document is to be debated within the regional assembly and, if passed, it would place the region's government in opposition to the central government in Baghdad, which has indicated that it will publish its own completed hydrocarbon law sometime in December or early 2007.

If parallel legal frameworks are established in the Kurdish autonomous region and Baghdad, foreign firms wanting to do business may have to sign separate contracts and adhere to the laws of two governments. Thus, the issue remains as to whether a compromise can be reached between the Kurds and the Iraqi central government, or whether the division of oil revenues will prove to be a source of further instability in a country already reeling from insurgency and sectarian strife.

Kurds Push Own Oil Policy

While violence engulfs much of Iraq and the Baghdad central government continues negotiations over a petroleum law, the Kurds have moved ahead and are poised to pass their own oil law. In addition, they have already signed a handful of contracts with foreign firms to explore oil fields in the north.

Issam al-Chalabi, a former Iraqi oil minister, said the right to control local oil reserves constitutes a major complication between the Kurds and the central government, AP reported on October 25.

"The Kurds have submitted a draft petroleum act to be adopted that gives them the right to control oil, regardless of the government in Baghdad. The Oil Ministry has submitted another completely different draft that gives the authority to the ministry, not regions. It's the main issue of the conflict: oil and Kurds," he said.

The establishment of a petroleum law in the Kurdish region not only underscores the decentralization of oil resources, but it constitutes another step in the Kurds' move away from the Baghdad government.

Tension Over Signed Oil Contracts

In another area of contention, the Kurdish administration has moved ahead and signed exploration contracts with several foreign oil firms, including the Norwegian oil company DNO and the Turkish firms PetOil and Genel Enerji. The contracts place the local administration at odds with Baghdad by stressing Irbil's autonomy at the expense of the central government.

Barzani threatened to secede (RFE/RL file photo)The issue came to a head when Iraqi Oil Minister Husayn al-Shahristani told the state-owned daily "Al-Sabah" on September 24 that contracts signed with foreign firms to develop oil fields in the north without the approval of the central government were subject to review by the ministry. Officials in the Oil Ministry also said that foreign firms currently working in the Kurdish region would be blacklisted in the future from attaining contracts to develop oil fields in southern Iraq.

In response, Kurdish Prime Minster Nechirvan Barzani said the move would be unconstitutional and he issued a statement suggesting that his government may secede if the contracts were rejected. "If Baghdad ministers refuse to abide by that constitution, the people of Kurdistan reserve the right to reconsider our choice," he said.

'Future Oil Fields'

The key issue concerns the control and management of so-called "future oil fields". Although Article 108 of the Iraqi Constitution says, "oil and gas are the ownership of all the people of Iraq" and are to be managed by the federal government in conjunction with regional governorates, only "current" oil fields, which are controlled by the central government, are mentioned, not any discovered in the future.

Kurdish Natural Resources Minister Ashti Hawrami insisted that future oil fields in the Kurdish region are to be managed by Irbil and won't be shared with Baghdad, "USA Today" reported on November 6. "In management of new fields, we are adamant that we will not share with the federal government. Planning, coordination -- no problem. But who has the right to write contracts? We can consult with the center, but the ultimate authority lies with the Kurds," he said.

The issue of future oil fields will becomes all the more significant when the fate of Kirkuk is decided by a referendum in 2007. Recent demographic shifts as part of the Kurds' attempts to reverse the Hussein regime's "Arabization" campaign suggest that Kirkuk may very well have a Kurdish majority, thereby placing the Kurdish government in a good position to annex Kirkuk and take control of its massive oil fields.

Outlook Unclear

The fact that the Kurds have already drafted their own petroleum law even before the creation of a federal law is itself indicative of the strength of Irbil's position, in that the Kurds are a major component of the Shi'ite-led coalition government and without their support the government would probably fall.

Conversely, it may be in the Kurdish administration's interest to back down and show a willingness to compromise with Baghdad. The Kurdish region is land-locked and export outlets are crucial. Experts contend that the existing Ceyhan pipeline from northern Iraq to Turkey does not have the capacity to carry additional crude exports. Furthermore, if Kirkuk is annexed by the Kurds, it may complicate matters with Turkey, which is already concerned that the Iraqi Kurds' ambitions of autonomy may incite their own sizable Kurdish population to follow in their footsteps.

Even if the dispute is resolved, the oil industry itself is in shambles because of rampant corruption and insurgent attacks. The Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, the U.S. agency responsible for overseeing Iraq's reconstruction, issued a report on July 30 describing smuggling as "pervasive" and "virtually pandemic," which threatens Iraq's ability to maintain, let alone increase oil production.

Even though Iraq is rich in crude oil and natural gas, it must import much of its refined petroleum. Years of UN sanctions left much of Iraq's oil infrastructure in a dilapidated condition, crippling its refining capacity.

Finally, caught in the middle of the dispute are the Sunni Arabs, who fear that Iraq is moving toward partition into three sections: a Kurdish north and Shi'ite south, both rich in oil, while the Sunnis are left with a resource-poor center. The Kurds' demands and aggressive posturing might aggravate the Sunnis' feelings of marginalization and provide more fuel for radicals among them.

Originally Posted by Jola

Do we still believe that FIL will become inacted automatically after 30 days?

Some old news on
Iraqi Dinars | Iraqi News and Iraqi Money

say that it has been approved by the Parliament on Oct 12.

"The Parliament approved the investment law yesterday ( the article is dated Oct 13) after discussions lasted nearly two weeks."

Any takers on that?

Good question,

I belive that the FIL will be enacted on Sunday, and it goes hand in hand with the Rumour of BoA selling dinars from 13/11, we were told they'd only be dealing with dinars once it was 'trading' internationally........

And we have our RV!

Originally Posted by Socata 850

After reading many many posts about upcoming dates and events, is it safe to say that the 10K distribution will not happen within the next few days? Without the distribution there does not seem IMO to be any rush to reval the dinar am I correct in my thoughts? It seems Maliki is enjoying his position so much that there doesn't seem to be any real reason to change the status quo in the near future. SGS can you help by giving your insight and opinion to these two issues. Thank you

I will throw my opinion on this out there but maybe someone more knowledgable can answer for you. Actually I believe the revaluation has to happen first so the 10K is worth it's full value and not just $7 USD. I look for a revaluation anyday between now and Sunday, especially since the investment law should automatically be enacted in the next 1-2 days if I am understanding it correctly. I have thought about this 10K distribution....if they had no intention of distributing it with a revaluation then why would they have not just given it out and been done with it....obviously 10K undervalued would not cause any kind of shortage of funds or anticipation of theft etc. for the most part...with Iraq I never say never. I guess what I am saying is if they intended to give it out at a worthless rate then what would be the big deal it could have been passed out already. Also I have been watching the CBI numbers and in my siggy below there is a link that I have been keeping the last 4 days worth of CBI numbers in sequence so we hopefully can spot a trend or something to speculate on. I really believe we are at the point of revaluation....I am searching for any indication that the foreign investment law has been enacted since it was adopted 10/10/06 if my dates are correct. This is just my theory and hopefully those with more insight can shed some light on all of this.

Originally Posted by Raditz

Good question,

I belive that the FIL will be enacted on Sunday, and it goes hand in hand with the Rumour of BoA selling dinars from 13/11, we were told they'd only be dealing with dinars once it was 'trading' internationally........

And we have our RV!

The only problem that I see with that is the fact that in the FIL pdf says clearly that it needs to be published in the Official Gazette.

I know that the subject has been discussed on the forum, but I feel like this law is too important to take the easy route of just being published in the government newspapers without being officially published in the Gazette.

So, how do we stand from this point of view?

Does anyone know where the official statement of FIL being automatically enacted within 30 days after passing is

Originally Posted by Jola

The only problem that I see with that is the fact that in the FIL pdf says clearly that it needs to be published in the Official Gazette.

I know that the subject has been discussed on the forum, but I feel like this law is too important to take the easy route of just being published in the government newspapers without being officially published in the Gazette.

So, how do we stand from this point of view?

Below is the article from the government website....now the CBI within the last 2-3 weeks ammended their laws on the CBI website stating that due to the untimeliness of the Gazette posting information that it only had to make it publicly known in major Iraq daily newspaper. I will search that out as I have printed it off the CBI site.

Iraq Adopts New Investment Law
October 2006
On October 10, Iraq adopted an investment law that offers an accommodating regulatory environment for U.S. business. The law will take effect once published in the Official Gazette. Although various actions must be taken before Iraq’s new investment regime is fully functional, there are several noteworthy features of the recently-approved law:
· All investors enjoy equal treatment under the law without regard to nationality (Art. 10);
· Iraqi workers receive priority in hiring, but investors may hire non-Iraqi workers if Iraqi workers do not have the necessary qualifications (Art. 12);
· Investors who obtain investment licenses from the National Commission on Investment are entitled to additional benefits. These benefits include:
o For investors in specific areas, an exemption from taxes and fees for a period of ten years from the date commercial operations begin (Article 15.1); and
o An exemption from fees, for a period of three years from the time an investment license is granted, for assets imported for the purposes of an investment project (Art. 17.1); and
· The law prescribes clear procedures for obtaining an investment license (Art. 19-20).
Further analysis of the investment law will be made available soon. An English translation of the law (PDF only) is available to the public.

Iraq Investment and Reconstruction Task Force

Originally Posted by opps50

Does anyone know where the official statement of FIL being automatically enacted within 30 days after passing is

There is no such statement. The only statement is that it will be enacted with its publication in the Official Gazette.

However, I think susie or someone else here pointed that the laws get enacted automatically within 30 days, which could be also the case of FIL.

On the other hand, the FIl gives access to foreign investors to iraqis resources, which should be AFTER a possible currency RV. If it is made public ( published) on a certain date without RV, the contracts that are signed already become active, which means probably a disaster....
Any other opinions?