Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

This article from Oct 29 explains why the Oil Law has been delayed so much. Don't be surprised also why the countries forgive the Iraq debt. There is much more at stake than an old loan:

Maneuvering the current Iraqi government into drafting an agreeable oil law ultimately has relied on persuading debtor nations to forgive the groaning debt incurred under Saddam. In exchange for that "relief," Iraq would submit to a series of protocols under the stern supervision of the International Monetary Fund: privatization of its state-run companies, including the oil industry; opening production on favorable terms to the major oil companies heretofore excluded; ending subsidies on food and fuel for the beleaguered Iraqi people.

The favorable terms for foreign producers would come in the form of "production service agreements." Under a PSA, the sovereign nation theoretically owns the oil deposits but the company commands extortionate profits for decades.

The PSA concept was designed in the 1960s to provide incentives for producers to enter high-risk ventures, such as those in Russia after the Soviet collapse. Virtually all Middle East countries, however, have constitutional prohibitions against granting such sovereignty-eroding agreements.

Understandably, the Iraqi government has hesitated to enact the proposed oil law as designed by their liberators. Members of the Iraqi National Assembly released a statement after the "reform" law was presented to them nearly a year ago, condemning the pressure as "a new crime committed by the creditors who financed Saddam's oppression."

Source:
Hopes of liberating Iraqi oil - Roanoke.com

Originally Posted by CharmedPiper

Hey Pan good article....I especially like the following:

"The timetable has already slipped by a month, but they have made progress on two key items: The parliament passed a foreign investment law last month and is debating legislation on how the oil industry will be run and profits divided among the Shiite, Sunni, and Kurdish populations. Sumaidaie expects the measure to pass this month." This verifies that there has been delays in the past and this all should have been done last month....so I would say this weekend really coincides with the delay....Come on reval this weekend. Thanks for digging this up Pan great article.

Sorry...I fibbed about only having one comment....I have another one....

LOOKS LIKE OUR SUSIE WAS MORE THAN LIKELY CORRECT WITH HER SEPTEMBER 18th R/V DATE AFTER ALL!!!!! WOOOOTTTTT!!!

I believe she has been VINDICATED!!

Cheers!
DayDream

Originally Posted by DayDream

I believe they are just being cautious because the sudden interest in the past few weeks have they bum-fuzzled. Any thoughts?

Cheers!
DayDream

Bum -fuzzled ?? Is that a swear word ??? LOL, I love this forum, My knowledge base has expanded 10 fold since coming here.

Thanks DayDream, that made me laugh real hard.

The Media Network for adoption
Baghdad Yasser incumbent

Raised Economic Survey prepared by the researcher and expert in the Ministry of Industry and Minerals professor Afif al crucial subject at the time of greatest need to know the variables that revolve around us these days.
Study tagged public awareness of the need for the success of the economic reform program is to study deserves serious pause to review the outcome of the results of change and miscalculations on the part of some to understand and imagine things about the new reality.
The president pointed out the need to create a culture of high economic enable it to the public to grasp and understand the concepts emerging in the community traditionally has to follow a certain pattern of economic knowledge, which is within the concept of the economic system totalitarian According to this concept, there was need for disclosure and transparency on the objectives and implications of change Waterfront and with in light of the economic situation is bad and suffering citizens.
However, I noted that the researcher was a degree of awareness and sophistication while the ball was in his organs of the media in perpetuating new concepts. But the question that presents itself. Does the media organs capable of delivering the message of change if it did not have knowledge, or understanding or awareness of the economic required?
These questions led me to Ahaur researcher Professor Afif Al-Rayes on the mechanisms of the concepts in the pluses and the minuses and leave matters to the public in digested and absorbed or rejected and ignored.
There is no doubt that any program of action, whether to repair or other needs to define integrated and comprehensive presentation and with a high level of transparency to the goals and results and benefits of this program and previous experience in this area.
The question ... What is the mechanism that could be followed in the preparation and implementation of the economic reform program of outreach to public opinion inside and outside Iraq?
Afif al-launched in response to this question from a recognized fact is that the rights if accustomed to the pattern or a certain level in life and life on the basis of coexistence and satisfied with this pattern and order and granted him by including human even though sometimes incomplete.
He believes that rights will not easily accept any change to this pattern because that equation be governed by the theory of legal centers that control in the provision of social and political stability of economic factors that could not be any society regardless of the degree of development to continue without him.
Based researcher's analysis that this change will affect the reasons his life in any way and the president believes that this position is not limited to non-acceptance, but might go beyond that to be opposed and rejected it.
Therefore, the resort to the practice and application of the adoption of reforms in the plans of economic transformation require the advocates of change and reform to resort to public education and persuasion to induce people to accept their invitations, accept and understand the significance of the reform process of interaction with them and respond to the imperatives of economic, social and political development required under the incentive to accelerate development.
The professor believes that the government Afif al-believers find insignificance reform in the civil society as they nature of this more stable because the policies that arise from the practices of democracy will be more widely accepted by the public and more just when implemented.
The researcher concludes that any reform program, and enjoys the support of citizens may be under way within the essentially important to the success of the program, which unlike a decision or order, and without conviction or sometimes people oppose.
It will be a challenge, if not a real problem to make Accordingly, the content of process control mechanisms for acceptance or rejection and come from the heart of the philosophy of economic interests and the nature of the reform process that is corrected and the representation of the interests of the majority or minority or social milieu, which often represents the interests of everybody but m disparities have Individualization respond masses for the reform process in the social framework.
Researcher and striking example in the adoption of economic reform and the privatization of a number of state enterprises is one of the methods of economic reform and said : that the parties involved or targeted in the public awareness in this area are workers and departments in enterprises to be privatized and political groups with the general attitudes or words more comprehensive public opinion.
These indicators will be to build a general system of public awareness aimed at changing directions and deepen and mobilize support for a particular policy or new and different from its predecessor.
He reiterated his call researcher Afif al - because bears the responsibility of preparing for the preparation and transformation, concepts and perceptions and visions of a new social, political and economic in the country. Also see not only the role of information in the transfer of variables, but it could contribute to explain the interpretation and criticism and to propose amendments and evaluate the contents of these variables.
Here is the question raised in the introduction to the subject of how the media can play this role?
In this area requires the president said work on the growth of the media in economic affairs specialist with the ability to research and analysis that the media have the possibility of offering a high concentration of subjects and persuade both through direct contacts and dialogues in symposia and conferences, or contact the editorial articles and the discussion of ideas raised in the newspapers and we suggest that they can to establish a specialized forum for the growth of this organ media specialist and the ball in the court of the Iraqi media.
As a researcher finds that it is possible cooperation between the ministries concerned to bring reform academic specialists to create this body full support and cooperation with the Iraqi Media Network.

Translated version of http://www.alsabaah.com/

Cheers!
DayDream

Interesting,

What a ride we have all been on, and it isn't over yet, but sure is getting close. My word from Kurd's is that no 10K, and even though we hear it all over again in news, they heard this before, so they expect more false promises from Baghcrap.

As we have all seen, Barani is swinging a big bat over Baghcrap and these are no longer idol threats, they are fed up with innaction, delay and delay, and the inability of Maliki to disarm militia. It sure is getting interesting, but what rumors I am hearing is a few more pieces of puzzle have to fall into place first, the the 10K is not a major one as we are led to believe.

I know, we were all using logics, but we also know these Iraqi's are out to lunch when it comes to logic. We have heard expert econimists indicate what is needed to slow inflation, but we still see delay after delay, so it makes you wonder if it all hangs on cleaning house in parliament first, and not the handout of 10K. This seems to be the latest hang up and reason for delays, so I see this as a reason for more delays, even if the do finally hand out the 10K.

Sorry, but corruption and lack of leaderhip within parliament and lack of attendence are a major stumbling block and I feel things are delayed for this reason on revalue front over and over. As Adam says, they may finally go ahead with handout, but it may not be the one that goes hand and hand with revalue. I would feel a lot better if new denoms were verified as ready to go be released, this would be the signal I want to hear.

The people in Kurdistan are not thrilled over the 10K, hardly any concern, mostly a bad joke, so time will tell as it always does, but I don't think we will see any revalue until parliament corruption is addressed and Maliki disarms militia. Hang in there, it should happen before end of year, so we are almost there regardless. Many positive signals have happened over the past couple months, so we are going in the right direction, and this is critical. Everything points to revalue, just not quite yet as I see it. We have all been disappointed before, so hang in there, don't let it get you down.

Good luck to all, Mike

Any proof of every citizen in Iraq getting the 10.000 ID handout or is it just the needy because I had a conversation with an Iraqi expat I was introduced with last night that said that this handout will be mostly around Baghdad and south. He said it's very unlikely that the Kurdish region would be looking for this.
I know many have been calculating the payment using the 27 M population but we may be far off.
He does hold a bit of the new currency and seemed aware of the CBI auctions and other interesting facts that get discussed on the forums. One thing that he said was important is that the CBI get rid of dollars and bring in dinar because the revalue will be better backed by dinar as reserve rather then USD when revalued. Makes sense at 1468 to 1

Originally Posted by Adster

Well we know the 10k is meant to go out tomorrow but we have heard this before. In theory yes if the reval is imminent then the 10k will not be worth $7 but a whole lot more. What I'm saying is IF there's no reval tomorrow then I wouldn't be surprised if they delay the 10k handouts too until they reval.....

I've still not seen anything to confirm Saudis debt has been forgiven, it was only promised to be forgiven, not the same thing.......

The ICI is huge in itself, that opens the doors and should be signed early December, oil law enacted before end of the year. As well as EU deal on 20/11.

Conflict of interests here already Adam. Just heard from my missus, who you had been exchanging posts in the past (hmmm, hehe), she told me, NOT likely...knowing how her bosses all go about with their policies...btw, her bosses are the Saudis...Nr #1 OPEC partner in that cartel.

I think so too...saying and showing a sign of solidarity is all too common but heyyy, Iraq is going to have LOTS of OIL pumped out...give them time and they can pay back gradually...its no FREE LUNCH either among the Arab Brothers....hehe.!!

YB. cheers...I see that happening anyway... just keep a close watch...

Hi Guys!
Sorry it took me so long to get back to everyone. After I posted yesterday, I left to go to the bank, and was on my way back when my husband called and said his semi-truck broke down. I had to go and pick him up, and get parts for the truck, then spent most of the night with him doing repairs. Anyways, went to Chase bank. My normal teller was at lunch, so had to use a different teller. Told her I wanted to buy some foreign currency, She looked it up on her computer and then called the Branch Manager over. The manager had said he just received something on the dinar that morning, and asked if I could wait a few minutes. As I waited, he went back into his office, and began shuffling papers, trying to find whatever it was that he was looking for. He spent about 10 mins doing that, and then came back out and said "Just give it to her, I can't find it" So the teller took my order, gave me my reciept, and said I could pick it up Monday morning. Oh! and I was given a new rate. This time it was .0007641, when previously it was .0007676!

Exploration and development fields. Oil industry sophisticated ...Contribute to the development and construction
Morning
Determined strategic outlook of oil in Iraq, in the current stage and the future. in the light of the following points
1- Constitution
2- oil realities in Iraq
3- exploration, development, exploration, production, export
4-oil industry
5- contribute to the development and construction
Constitution :
The Iraqi Permanent Constitution of 2005 three articles governing oil and gas assets, "Article 111" to : "Oil and gas people," King of the nation "in all the regions and provinces". In Article 112, "" Ali.
First - The federal government management of oil and gas extracted from existing fields with the governments of producing regions and provinces, to be distributed equitably and imports commensurate with the population distribution in all parts of the country. with the quota for a specific period of the affected regions, , which has been denied them unfairly by the former regime. The damaged after that, ensuring balanced development of the various regions of the country, regulated by law.
Second - The federal government and provincial and district government produced together a strategic policies necessary for the development of oil and gas. to achieve the highest benefit to the Iraqi people. certified latest techniques of market principles and encouraging investment.
Article 113 stipulates :" "all that is not written in the exclusive power to the federal government, is under the authority of provincial and district, In the case of the dispute over the things that fall under the multiple forces "shared" between the federal government and provincial and district government will be the priority for the latter. "
Explains Dr. Hussein Shahrastani, Oil Minister, the current article "111", saying : "The oil and gas belongs to all the Iraqi people. and it may not any of the regional or local parties to act on behalf of the general Iraqi people. The federal government is representing the people in all regions and provinces, it should be through the bodies representing the whole of the country. We should not unique any province or any region or any territory this common wealth to the public.
Regarding the newly discovered oil fields in Kurdistan, the minister pointed out that it belongs to all people, and revenues should go to one box, distributed by the proportion of the population in those areas. as stipulated in the Constitution that.
There is a ministerial committee on behalf of the Energy Committee in which the Minister of Natural Resources in the Kurdistan region, It also includes members including ministers of oil, electricity, finance, planning and Justice and others. “.The Energy Commission is the body authorized to study these things. "
It seems that these constitutional articles came to achieve two main objectives :
I : the current distribution of oil wealth for everyone, in accordance with the relative density.
II : an inventory of exploration and production in the hands of the new regions and producing governorates, without the intervention of the federal government, except for the drawing up strategies for the development of this industry, which are common to everyone.
We have many legal and oil experts that there are gaps and ambiguity and contradiction in these articles of the Constitution in addition to the overlap and the marginalization of the role of the federal authority in the supervision and coordination, and scrutinizing the operations of exploration and production and other oil operations, which require follow-up central, and only the Constitution and potatoes of oil and natural gas from the national wealth. Requires expansion to include material from the national wealth of natural sulfur and phosphate, iron and all that is in the ground and outside,
And even water.
It also requires an amendment to the article "111" to be the following "national natural wealth, located in the ground and above, including the Kailahun oil and gas property of all Iraqi people in all regions and provinces, The federal government in charge of the general supervision of the distribution of wealth and worth. “"
As can amend article "112" is as follows : "The Federal government is the overall supervision of the exploration and production with the provincial and district government, The distribution of imports of national wealth commensurate with the population distribution in all parts of the country. identify additional quota for the producing regions and provinces of production value for the expansion of development in these areas. “"
Thus, there are operations of a line with the articles of the Constitution which stipulates that oil and gas King all the Iraqi people and therefore should be the federal government general supervision and control over the production and export of resources.
“Development and production, "Facts and figures"
About "530" function synthesis, been drilling in the "115" so far, proved by "80" contains up to nearly "116 billion barrels", The synthetic parameters unexplored until now it has more than "115 billion barrels".
Current production is two million barrels. The highest production of 3,5 million barrels in 1979. The production before March 2003 was 2, eight million barrels a day.
Oil and strategic outlook are working to lift
Production to McCann in 1979, This figure was very modest.
The work to develop Iraq requires that the State play, whether the federal government or the provincial and district government play a leading role in development in addition to domestic and foreign investments, Projects strategic outlook and health services, education, social insurance, and construction of dams and irrigation projects must be in the lead of the State All this requires expansion in the production and export of oil and gas. as well as in the oil industries and Altbrookimiaoeh, phosphate and sulfur requires efforts to raise oil production to the "10-8" million barrels a day, It Maittalb work to attract giant oil companies in exploration, prospecting, drilling, extraction, in addition to work on the development of existing fields.
Also to be re-establishing the National Oil Company. to oversee the oil industry. with subsidiary companies in the regions and provinces to be responsible for the management of oil operations in their respective regions.
Thus, the National Oil Company in general intellectual and coordination with all the other companies in Iraq and the specific legislative and political matters, planning and studies and contracts, The overall supervision and follow-up exploration and production in the country.
While the subsidiary companies operational matters and the implementation and supervision of projects.
The development of oil fields
The prospecting operations should continue in a crescendo for new discoveries, and drilling new fields, to raise production capacity from new fields, fields and the current plan requires a basic vehicle is examining the discovered fields and producing.
At the same time we have to take into account the development and reconstruction of the country and to meet the needs of current and future must lay the foundations of the plan depends :
* Optimum use of existing and proven reserves in all producing fields and discovered or detected future.
* The adoption of best sunspots to develop oil fields, as well as the cost of any additional oil pipeline or changing a major pipeline transporting and exporting oil.
* Study the feasibility of any of the operations of oil from prospecting to production and export. The implementation of the best in terms of economic feasibility. the protection of the environment, and better use the techniques.
* Preparation for possible additional stocks in the future as they desperately needed.
Planning Alstratiji
Alstratiji planning of the oil industry in Iraq in light of the Constitution and the current situation in Iraq should be centrally and in consultation with the regions and governorates produced through a consultative body, comprising representatives of the companies or sub-fields in the regions and provinces, and representatives of non-governmental organizations in the relationship. oil and technocrats prefer to be representatives of the regions and provinces, found.
The text of the Constitution explicitly provides that the oil wealth belongs to the Iraqi people. The proper application of this basic principle is that the oil policy of the federal government's responsibility, For a few, in terms of powers and responsibilities, Through the advisory body to which we have referred. There's oil can be developed unless stayed in place this principle and do real.
It also must articulate a vision for the strategic development of the role of the private oil sector, and the development of an investment plan based on scientific and administrative impartial In this regard indicates the oil expert Farouk denominator four strategic options in foreign investment in the oil sector, namely :
1- because of the deteriorating situation of the Iraqi economy, there is an urgent need for a significant increase in production.
2- for, the contribution of foreign investment, even for a transitional period, is essential.
3- for the purpose of maximizing the interest must be done within the framework of legislative and contract carefully.
4- Needless to excess in the number of contracts in the interim period, because the possible recovery of endogenous capacities in investment and production in a few years, then Iraq will be in a better position to negotiate.
The new contracts and agreements must be carefully studied and economically feasible
The scientific, environmental and fair, and not subject any territory or province productive to small investors and speculators.
The lack of experienced personnel in the management of oil at the regional level and absence of unified model for the terms of the contracts and agreements can lead to agreements, oil, gas backward with the international oil companies which Malaihaqk constitutional requirements, , which states "to ensure the highest benefit to the people" and worse, the possibility that the transparency and auditing and accounting difficult for the fledgling regional governments and provinces lacking institutions and traditions. In addition, the contracts in such circumstances, because of the imbalance of the two sides will be declared invalid by the international laws "laws of the Higher Institute for the Unification of Private Law. “ Therefore, such agreements will lead to unfair results destructive of the national wealth of the region or maintain productive itself.
*** Sources *
1- “.One full-Almahidi-about oil policy rational dialogue-magazine-number "6", the Iraqi Center for Development and International Dialogue, "Baghdad, in June 2006."
2- Two-Tariq Shafiq-invitation to reconsider. The content of the oil industry, as contained in the Constitution.
3- .Hussein Shahrastani, and the current Minister of Oil, in an interview in 2006 / May 10.
4- Iraqi Center for Development and International Dialogue. Economic Forum requirements and controls on investment in Iraq. Amman in 2006 / 7 / 21.
Translated version of http://www.alsabaah.com/

Cheers!
DayDream

Originally Posted by CharmedPiper

I found this article about when the Yuan was revalued/went on the market to give us a history of how past currencies announced their introduction to the market...maybe will be similar, not sure.

China takes another step towards flexible yuan

Xinhua - English 2006-01-05 09:13:22

BEIJING, Jan. 5 -- China took another step towards currency flexibility on Wednesday by letting banks set its daily opening foreign-exchange rate, a change that might allow the yuan to move much faster than previously possible, the Reuters reported.

The new system, the latest in a long line of policies aimed at gradually freeing up the yuan, accompanied the introduction of open over-the-counter trading that will eventually replace the current system of anonymous and automatic order matching.

The changes, announced late on Tuesday, went into operation on Wednesday.

The yuan remains tied to a 0.3 percent range on either side of a daily mid rate against the dollar.

But whereas the mid rate has until now been the previous day's close, allowing only very slow movement, it will now be the average quote of market makers -- theoretically allowing a rise at the opening of trade each day.

"The old system was effectively a crawling system that limited day-to-day movement within 0.3 percent," Jun Ma, Deutsche Bank's Greater China chief economist, said in a research note.



"This change theoretically allows a very different central parity rate from the previous day's closing price."

But maybe only theoretically.

Ma reckoned the central bank would allow the yuan to rise only slowly -- about 4 percent this year.

Even under the more restricted flexibility of the previous system, the currency never moved more than a tiny fraction of its permissible 0.3 percent each day.

Indeed, the first mid-rate quoted by the market makers, Wednesday's 8.0702 per dollar, was identical with previous close.

And the central bank was quick to dampen speculation of a further appreciation of the yuan, which the United States says is still seriously undervalued and gives Chinese goods an unfair advantage in global markets.

The central bank said it would keep the yuan stable for now.

OVER-THE-COUNTER TRADING

China revalued the yuan in July by 2.1 percent and dropped a dollar peg in favour of managing its value with reference to a basket of currencies.

The yuan has consistently trended higher since then, but in minuscule steps, gaining just 0.5 percent since revaluation.

"The (mid) rate will be near the yuan's previous day's close for now as market markers will be cautious and take hints from the central bank," said a dealer at a major Chinese bank.

"But it will drift away gradually to become a more independent rate along with the deepening of currency reforms."

Other changes launched on Wednesday supported the introduction of market makers -- banks who stand ready to trade when no one else wants to, keeping the market liquid.

Market participants would be allowed to trade openly over the counter, as is usual in foreign exchange markets elsewhere. The old system, which the central bank said would eventually be scrapped, automatically matches trades for anonymous bidders.

The 0.3 percent daily range applies to the dollar mid rate. The yuan is allowed to move further against other currencies.

The China Foreign Exchange Trade System will announce the daily mid rates against the U.S. dollar, euro, Japanese yen and Hong Kong dollar at 9.15 a.m. daily.

This seems to be the pattern, night before announcement. In this case it was a small RV. In Iraq's case, like it's been speculated before, announcement while markets are closed to inhibit mass speculation.

I think the German 1948 experience is the classic model for Iraq, overnight major RV, announced the night before. You know in Germany this lead to decades of economic growth for that country. So as a side note, you folks fortunate enough to have entered the Iraqi stock market, I think you have some long-term wealth development ahead of you.