Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Originally Posted by Wm.Knowles

Ref: The CBI auction.

Again we see an auction where the CBI has conducted an auction that has moved a large amount of currency from circulation (110M). With the exception of yesterday, the last six auctions has been some of the largest in their history. If my math is correct, over 450M USD of dinar has been removed and replaced with USD in the local banks. A huge move in itself. The question was "does this reduce inflation". The answer is yes. We know that inflation is too much money chasing to few goods. This movement of dinars out of the system is an extremely healthy move and when combined with the overall debt reduction is a classic action that will result in a higher value for the dinar and credit worthiness of Iraq as a whole. How many more days can they continue to remove Dinar out of the economy? We don't know. But it isn't a move that can continue indefinitly. At some point they will have removed the excess by using their currency reserves and oil money. This recent trend is exactly what you would expect them (CBI) to do prior to an increase in value of their currency. So I am very encouraged by these actions and feel they are in compliance with the SBA from the IMF. So many times we have seen small countries continue to print money until it is worthless. By removing dinar from the economy they are taking the opposite and responsible direction that will decrease inflation and decrease the CBIs exposure for larger amounts of dinar in the economy should the currency be revalued. Again, how long can this go on? I don't know. We'll have to see. But this is a very large and favorable movement in the direction of an economy that will result in a longer term increased value of the dinar and will benefit all investors and the Iraqi people by increasing their purchasing power. Your comments are appreciated.

The longer this goes on the higher the reval for us and their people. In the 16 months I have been in this investment I've never seen such big numbers being bought up, a huge sign in itself that they are reducing dinars in circulation so they have less to pay out once they revalue.

Can someone in the US checkout BoA and Steph's rumour once their banks open in a few hours please.

Old, but as we're approaching the date worth reminding everyone.


Iraqi reconstruction conference planned for late November August 1, 2006


The world's major economic powers, including Japan, the United States and countries in Europe, will hold a conference in late November to sign an agreement on a five-year plan to assist in the economic reconstruction of Iraq, it was learned Tuesday.

It has yet to be decided which country will host the conference, informed sources said.

Leading up to the conference, the parties concerned will hold a high-level meeting, possibly in early September, at which Iraq will present a blueprint of its economic reconstruction plan, the sources said.

Among those participating in the meeting will be representatives of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, as well as such countries as Japan, the United States, major European nations and Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia.

Iraq's reconstruction plan will center on the enhancement of transparency of its economic and financial systems and the elimination of corruption, according to the sources. It will include the establishment of legislation to promote investments and private-sector business transactions.

The plan, which will be fine-tuned at a U.N. General Assembly meeting and the IMF and World Bank annual meeting, both scheduled for September, is expected to cover a broad range of issues, also including Iraq's oil development projects, fiscal management, and creation of better financial markets.

According to U.S. Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Robert Kimmitt, the upcoming conference will be organized in a similar way to an international donors' conference on the reconstruction of Afghanistan held in London in January.

The Afghan conference was attended by delegates of some 60 nations and organizations, including Japan and the United States, and was cochaired by Britain, Afghanistan and the United Nations.

In the previous conference on Iraqi reconstruction held in Madrid in 2003, donor countries promised to provide a total of 13.5 billion dollars in aid to Iraq. But of the total, only 4 billion dollars has been collected so far, according to Kimmitt.

Japan pledged to provide up to 5 billion dollars in aid, and has already formalized a plan to extend 1.5 billion dollars in the form of grant-in-aid.

The Madrid meeting was divided between participants led by the United States, Britain and Japan and a group of countries such as France and Germany that opposed the U.S.-led war in Iraq.

However, according to Kimmitt, who toured Europe in July, many European countries have now come to realize Iraq's economic potential and the importance of stability in the Middle East, noting that he expects the negotiations to proceed smoothly this time. (Jiji Press)

http://mdn.mainichi-msn.co.jp/inter...0in043000c.html

Originally Posted by Adster

[FONT=Arial]
However, according to Kimmitt, who toured Europe in July, many European countries have now come to realize Iraq's economic potential and the importance of stability in the Middle East, noting that he expects the negotiations to proceed smoothly this time. (Jiji Press)

Ha! All of us little peon dinar investors have been aware of this for a long time. It's about time the big guys found out...DUHHH! We're not as stupid as they think!

Originally Posted by Wm.Knowles

Ref: The CBI auction.

Again we see an auction where the CBI has conducted an auction that has moved a large amount of currency from circulation (110M). With the exception of yesterday, the last six auctions has been some of the largest in their history. If my math is correct, over 450M USD of dinar has been removed and replaced with USD in the local banks. A huge move in itself. The question was "does this reduce inflation". The answer is yes. We know that inflation is too much money chasing to few goods. This movement of dinars out of the system is an extremely healthy move and when combined with the overall debt reduction is a classic action that will result in a higher value for the dinar and credit worthiness of Iraq as a whole. How many more days can they continue to remove Dinar out of the economy? We don't know. But it isn't a move that can continue indefinitly. At some point they will have removed the excess by using their currency reserves and oil money. This recent trend is exactly what you would expect them (CBI) to do prior to an increase in value of their currency. So I am very encouraged by these actions and feel they are in compliance with the SBA from the IMF. So many times we have seen small countries continue to print money until it is worthless. By removing dinar from the economy they are taking the opposite and responsible direction that will decrease inflation and decrease the CBIs exposure for larger amounts of dinar in the economy should the currency be revalued. Again, how long can this go on? I don't know. We'll have to see. But this is a very large and favorable movement in the direction of an economy that will result in a longer term increased value of the dinar and will benefit all investors and the Iraqi people by increasing their purchasing power. Your comments are appreciated.

hear hear! the voice of reason.

one would assume that once they have soaked up all the excess so to speak, then the dinar internally will raise in value, and fairly shortly after that, other details permitting, onto the forex, at a then decent float or peg, in time for the oil deals and EU trade deals to be signed, along with the international compact.

i
the only worry i have with all this excitement about planes being bought and WU trade deals being signed, is that they could all be signed in US dollar or Euro amounts couldnt they? probably not the EU trade, that sounds too official, like the compact, but, isnt most business of any decent size there usually conducted in Dollars or Euro anyway?

i know when i was in China recently, contracts for all the artists with the booking agency i was with were in Euro, not CNY, and the whole company ran in Euro. if you wanted to send out a Western Union, they only accepted US dollars. their own currency so weak, nobody could be bothered counting all those bills. one would guess that currently, its the same in iraq with the dinar...

one would think with the compact due to be signed in December(?), that the revalue and HCL, FIL, will all fall into place by then, unless, of course, there are more delays related to security and political infighting etc.... who can really tell.

one way or another, it is very very close, wether that means a week or 3 mths, but i think, it cannot be more than 3 mths, or they will lose the faith totally of the people inside the country, who yet have little cause for celebration, or to believe a word their government says.

if someone could answer that worry i have with proof that they WILL be signing the EU trade deals in Dinars, not any other currency, well then it looks like this month!

heres hoping, positive on this as always...!

LOL, you guys remember I said I'd emailed the Official Gazette recently asking about the FIL. Well in my emails today I got 5 emails with attachments which didn't mean a great deal but it was good of her to do it!

I've emailed the girl back to try and strike up a conversation and get more info etc from a local person in Iraq.

Will post if she replies.

Health care system in ruins -- thousands dying
Infusion of U.S. cash can't overcome shortages, violence

Louise Roug, Los Angeles Times
Sunday, November 12, 2006

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(11-12) 04:00 PST Baghdad -- Thousands of Iraqis are dying from shortages of medicine, vital equipment and qualified doctors, despite an infusion of nearly half a billion dollars from U.S. coffers into the country's health care system, said Iraqi officials and American observers.
Raging sectarian violence -- as well as theft, corruption and mismanagement -- have drained health resources and made deliveries of supplies difficult. Exacerbating the crisis, hundreds of doctors have been killed and thousands have fled the country. The child mortality rate, a key indicator of a nation's health, has worsened since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003, according to Iraqi government figures.
In the most sinister development, provincial Sunni Muslim doctors charge that Shiites who control the Health Ministry deliberately withhold medicines and other vital supplies.
Across Iraq, many hospitals have neither computers nor meaningful patient files. Working X-ray machines and MRI scanners are few and far between.
At one of the busiest hospitals in Baghdad, five people die on average every day because medics and nurses don't have the equipment to treat heart attacks and other commonplace ills and accidents, said Husam Abud, a physician at Yarmouk Hospital. That translates to more than 1,800 preventable deaths a year in that hospital alone.
"Frankly speaking, if we get cases of cancer, we can't treat them," he said. "They'll probably end their days here. We don't have the adequate medication or the adequate equipment, and specialized doctors are not available."
Hospitals that already are overburdened by large numbers of civilian victims of the country's sectarian violence are also stretched by Iraqi military and police casualties. Because the security forces have no emergency facilities, soldiers bring wounded comrades to local hospitals for care, often forcing doctors at gunpoint to treat them first, said U.S. military officials.
Since 2003, U.S. agencies have spent at least $493 million of Iraqi reconstruction funds on health care, but no new hospitals and only a few local clinics have been built. The hospital rehabilitation program has been plagued by cost overruns and complaints of shoddy and expensive work.
A $50 million children's hospital in the southern city of Basra -- a pet project of first lady Laura Bush -- has run far behind schedule and over budget. If it is ever finished, the hospital will likely end up costing at least $40 million more than planned, not including medical equipment, according to a congressional report by the special inspector general for Iraq reconstruction.
The single largest U.S.-funded construction program in the health care sector also has fallen far short. A project to build 150 primary health care centers in Iraq was scaled back to 142 because of cost overruns. Today, only six clinics are open to the public -- five of them located in Baghdad Shiite neighborhoods, according to information provided by the U.S. Agency for International Development.
In Sunni-dominated Anbar province, the most dangerous part of the country, medical care is increasingly difficult to get. Several clinics have shut down in Ramadi, Hit, Haditha and Fallujah as doctors have fled and supplies have dwindled, said local officials.
At the outset of the war in 2003, the U.S. administration pledged to cut the child mortality rate in half by 2005. But the rate has worsened, from 125 deaths per 1,000 births in 2002 to 130 deaths per 1,000 births this year, according to Health Ministry figures.
Over that same period, the Health Ministry's budget has grown substantially. This year, it has a $1.1 billion budget, compared to $22 million in 2002. More than 55 percent of its funds are spent on medication and supplies, and 33 percent on salaries. Remaining funds are spent on upkeep and auxiliary work, according to ministry figures.
But much of the medicine and supplies never benefits the neediest patients. There is no reliable system to track deliveries, and large quantities cannot be accounted for.
In Tikrit, Saddam Hussein's hometown, 57 trucks of medicine have disappeared within the last two weeks, according to Sgt. 1st Class Jeff Newkirk, a civil affairs officer who operates in the area.
Health workers have run out of painkillers, plastic gloves, test tubes and blood bags, said Jasim Mukhlis, a 28-year-old Turkoman who works in the outpatient pharmacy.
The once well-funded Tikrit hospital needs repairs to its roof and water pipes. Doctors only perform the most urgent operations. Three newly built clinics remain unopened, lacking doctors and supplies.
Omar Hadithi, a local doctor, said Shiite officials take care of Shiite regions, but not Sunni ones. "The officials in the ministry think that our province received special treatment during Saddam's reign, so they are treating it with less care," he said.
In Baquba, doctors and officials also charge that the Shiite-run ministry discriminates against them.
"We have no medications or blood serum supplies," said Tariq Hiali, a Baquba health official. "The Ministry of Health is not providing us with medications and medical equipment -- they consider (us to be) terrorists."
Qasim Yahya, a Health Ministry spokesman, denied that the ministry discriminates against Sunnis. Supplies are available to all, but must be picked up in Baghdad, he said.
Sunni health workers say it is too dangerous to travel to the capital. At least 455 doctors, medical staff and hospital guards on both sides of the sectarian divide have been killed in the country since 2003, according to Health Ministry figures. In the same time period, about 7,000 doctors have left the country, according to the Doctors' Association of Iraq.
Like violence, theft and corruption have become endemic. Relatives caring for sick or injured family members say health workers are on the take and refuse to treat patients unless paid for even basic services.
"They will not take care of the patient unless you pay them money all the time," said Akram Hussein, describing what happened when his 75-year-old grandmother was brought to Chawader Hospital in the Shiite Baghdad slum of Sadr City. "We paid money to the cleaners and the nurses."
The doctor demanded extra: 5,000 dinar, or about $4, when Hussein's grandmother needed an injection. The family didn't complain, Hussein said, "fearing they might leave her completely."
After 10 days, she died.
"God decides people's ages," Hussein said. "But I think that the lack of care in this hospital caused the death of my grandmother."

Originally Posted by Adster

LOL, you guys remember I said I'd emailed the Official Gazette recently asking about the FIL. Well in my emails today I got 5 emails with attachments which didn't mean a great deal but it was good of her to do it!

I've emailed the girl back to try and strike up a conversation and get more info etc from a local person in Iraq.

Will post if she replies.

Nice one matey,

Offer her an invite to the RV party and a dip in the hot tub, that'll do it.

The question was asked, "what will the local banks do with the USD until they have to use it to support an RV which will result in an increased demand for USDs? This will be of interest to those who own bank stocks.
All banks maintain bond portfolios of items referred to as "secondary liquidity". In the banking world this "Liquidity" is used for bank reserve requirements (CBI) and is a sign of the finiancial stability of a bank. THESE reserve requirements in Iraq are similiar to reserve requirements required by the Federal Reserve system in the US. Buy placing this money in GOI bonds and bills along with US T-Bills, they are able to create a financial base that ensures coverage of their outstanding obligations and increasing loan demand. So expect the banks to increase their securities and bond portfolios in the short term with the increasing amount of USDs in their banks. This is just the responsible monetary movement that you would expect from an antcipated increase valuation of the currency. By increasing secondary liquidity, it increases the banking structure and ultimatly results in more valuable Bank stock and a healthier banking system. You comments are appreciated.

Originally Posted by Adster

Can someone in the US checkout BoA and Steph's rumour once their banks open in a few hours please.

I will try an go today before I go to work (early in the aftenoon).

One question though, about a week ago was a post (here or at IIF) from Stephanie I believe that gave a bank phone number for a teller (at BoA) to call if they had trouble ordering. I will try and search for it, and post it if I find it...

Dinarstars


I found this info after I posted, this was posted at IIF by StephanieF...

If you want to buy dinar from BOA I would suggest that you go to a branch on the 13th of November and walk up to a teller and ask to purchase foreign currency, when you are asked which currency say IQD, no need to mention Iraq. If your branch says they are not selling it then ask the manager to call 800-841-4000 and ask to be put in touch with any of the New York branches so they may speak to a manager at that location so they can help him purchase for a currency sell.[/