Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Originally Posted by Adster

Hhhmmmm, not so good.......hope for all of us and am sure it will have revalued by then or we'll be using the dinars for toilet paper.


Democrats settle on starting pullouts in 4-6 months White House officials say timetables could weaken Iraq

11/13/2006

WASHINGTON — Democrats poised to take control of Congress said Sunday that they would press to begin a phased U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq within four to six months, part of an agenda aimed at overhauling key aspects of U.S. policy in the Middle East.
"First order of business is to change the direction of Iraq policy," said Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., who is in line to become chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee next year.

Senior White House officials countered that setting timetables for U.S. troop withdrawals would weaken the Iraq government and embolden insurgents, but they acknowledged a need for fresh ideas on Iraq and expressed a willingness to negotiate with Democrats on an array of foreign-policy issues.

White House Chief of Staff Josh Bolten indicated on ABC that President Bush would block legislation that calls for a scheduled withdrawal.

"I don't think we're going to be receptive to the notion there's a fixed timetable at which we automatically pull out, because that could be a true disaster for the Iraqi people," Bolten said.

Even so, he said the White House was "willing to talk about anything" and was prepared to adjust tactics.

The developments came as Bush and members of his national-security team prepared to meet today with a panel of foreign-policy experts who have been charged with developing new proposals for how to proceed in Iraq. The panel is headed by James Baker III, who served as secretary of State

when Bush's father was president, and Lee Hamilton, a former Democratic congressman who served as chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
The push for a phased pullout, an idea long rejected by the Bush administration, appears to be gaining momentum. Senior military officials recently have voiced increasing concern that the security benefits of keeping large numbers of troops in Iraq are outweighed by significant downsides of the heavy U.S. presence. Among them are a perceived reluctance of Iraqis to take the lead in stemming violence as long as U.S. forces are there.

"We have to tell the Iraqis that the open-ended commitment is over and that we're going to begin to have a phased withdrawal in four to six months," said Levin, who appeared on ABC's "This Week."

Levin was joined in his call for a phased pullout by Sen. Joseph Biden Jr., D-Del., who is in line to become chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada, the Democratic leader in the Senate, told NBC's "Meet the Press" that decisions on draw-downs should rest with U.S. military officers in Iraq.

Still, Reid said that "we need to redeploy" and that a withdrawal should start within several months.

Iraq was a key factor in Republican losses in last week's election, with nearly 6 in 10 voters participating in exit polls saying they disapproved of the war and a majority calling for a withdrawal of some or all U.S. troops.

Even so, it's unclear how far GOP lawmakers will go to challenge the White House and back calls for a draw-down. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., said Sunday that he believed the United States needed to send more troops to Iraq to curb sectarian violence and reduce the influence of heavily armed Shiite militias.

"I believe that there are a lot of things that we can do to salvage this, but they all require the presence of additional troops," he said on "Meet the Press."

"The question, then, before the American people is: 'Are we ready to quit?' And I believe the consequences of failure are chaos in the region which will spread."

Members of both parties said they expect the Baker-Hamilton commission to recommend that the U.S. hold a conference with representatives from Iraq's Middle East neighbors to seek cooperation in pacifying the country and creating a stable government.

Biden told ABC that Iran and Syria should be included in such a conference, because of their influence in the region. Baker recently met with an Iranian envoy at the United Nations to discuss the prospects for cooperation.

A proposal that calls for joint meetings with Syria and Iran would pose diplomatic problems for the Bush administration, which has labeled Iran as part of an "axis of evil" and has been reluctant to engage either country.

Bolten stopped short of rejecting such a conference but made it clear that the White House didn't believe dialogue with Iran and Syria would improve matters.

"I don't think there's been a communications problem; there's been a cooperation problem," he said. "Iran and Syria have been meddling in Iraq in a very unhelpful way."

Inside Bay Area - Democrats settle on starting pullouts in 4-6 months

They can't do anything until they take office. That is official until after the first of the year

Originally Posted by Adster

Yup, buying it at a shiite rate, saves paying out to all of us when it revals.

Matey,

How did the NID get out there in the first place? And where did the CBI get buckets loads of $ from?

Originally Posted by ozizoz

As of now, BofA still does NOT list IQD on their list of foreign currencies you can buy/sell thru them . . .could be that they havent updated yet, or StephanieF is full of her usual stuff.

If the CBI has been taking IQD outta circulation this entire time and exchanging USD to their banks, how come this has not shown any change in the value of the USD on our side . . .if memory serves me, the USD has been getting weaker over the last few months . . .just the opposite I would expect to happen here if its supply had tightened by having hundred of millions or billions taken out of action and into the banks of Iraq.

But then again, Im a carpenter and not an economist

The dinar is still pegged to the dollar with a very small amount of leverage either way. The movement we see is due to the movement of the dollar, that's why the dinar has come down slightly this past week. As long as the dinar is controlled it will stay around the same rate. That's why we need the CBI to have total control of the dinar and hence revalue it. They will be able to do this after 12 December IMO.

The more dinar they take out of circulation the less they have to pay out once they revalue it. Plus it's bolstering their reserves. Longer this goes on the higher they can revalue it.

Originally Posted by owejac

CBI are selling US$ and get IQD in return. That way can they take the dinars out of circulation.

Somebody stop me if I am wrong.

So if I understand you correctly, the CBI is actually exchanging dinars for us dollars? Then they are pulling them out of circulation?

worf

Originally Posted by Wm.Knowles

The question was: :"How long can they (CBI) carry on auctions in the manner that they have been for the last six auctions?
What surprises me most is that they have been conducting large auctions in an effort to remove dinar from the local economy in such a short period of time. Its almost like a "panic" reaction. My conservative side would have advocated for a much less dramatic monetary intervention. Slower, over a longer period. I have heard too many estimates of the base money supply to make an intelligent guess, but its evident that this can NOT go on for long. I sense that it is a "short term" intervention. Which translates for us that these will be exciting times in the next few days or weeks. Thank you for your kind comments.

Wm. Knowles, you are a breath of fresh air to this forum. Thank you for your contributions. So many have put so much into this venture, we appreciate the new perspective your insight brings. Keep it up !!! Just remember, it HAS been predistined as to the number of days it will take for the Dinar to revalue, every day that goes by brings us one day closer to that appointed time. With the blessing that will be bestowed upon us all, please don't forget the families of the soldiers who have been killed or wounded in action. Without them none of this would have been possible.

Originally Posted by Wm.Knowles

Ref: The CBI auction.

Again we see an auction where the CBI has conducted an auction that has moved a large amount of currency from circulation (110M). With the exception of yesterday, the last six auctions has been some of the largest in their history. If my math is correct, over 450M USD of dinar has been removed and replaced with USD in the local banks. A huge move in itself. The question was "does this reduce inflation". The answer is yes. We know that inflation is too much money chasing to few goods. This movement of dinars out of the system is an extremely healthy move and when combined with the overall debt reduction is a classic action that will result in a higher value for the dinar and credit worthiness of Iraq as a whole. How many more days can they continue to remove Dinar out of the economy? We don't know. But it isn't a move that can continue indefinitly. At some point they will have removed the excess by using their currency reserves and oil money. This recent trend is exactly what you would expect them (CBI) to do prior to an increase in value of their currency. So I am very encouraged by these actions and feel they are in compliance with the SBA from the IMF. So many times we have seen small countries continue to print money until it is worthless. By removing dinar from the economy they are taking the opposite and responsible direction that will decrease inflation and decrease the CBIs exposure for larger amounts of dinar in the economy should the currency be revalued. Again, how long can this go on? I don't know. We'll have to see. But this is a very large and favorable movement in the direction of an economy that will result in a longer term increased value of the dinar and will benefit all investors and the Iraqi people by increasing their purchasing power. Your comments are appreciated.

Wm.,

Greatly enjoy your well thought out and educated posts.

Wonder how one explains the low $ yesterday, in light of the other high $ auctions? Or, is there no explaining it?

Randy

Originally Posted by Wm.Knowles

The question was: To what extent will the poliical changes in the GOI effect the monetary policies of the CBI?
Most americans would be very surprised at how independent the Federal Reserve System is from the fiscal policies of the US Gov. With the exception of deficit spending (which effects the money supply) the Fed acts as an independent central banking function. The same goes for Iraq. I have always been amazed over the last couple of years as to how the CBI and the economy seems to continue on its own course despite the upheavals in the GOI i.e. elections, forming a gov. etc. Since the GOIs spending is consistent with their budget, they actually do a better job of not printing money (by deficit spending) than we do. Monetary policy lies within the responsibility of the CBI and political changes, statements, comments etc. will have little influence on their policies just the same as they do in this country. The Federal Reserve system is govern by a board with the New York fed being the lead system. So you can expect the CBI to follow its own agenda, inspite of what the GOI thinks, says, or does. The monetary system is largely "outside" of the politicians in the GOI, and the CBI is much more influenced by suggestions and guidelines from the IMF and the world bank. However, the good news is that an increase in the currency value has been a goal of the IMF, World Bank from its original exchange in Oct. '03 based on how the monetary system has been put in place and the structure of the banking system that has been established from the beggining. There has been a definable trend towards making their money more valuable through sound monetary policies and economic growth, thus establishing Iraq as an eventual economic powerhouse in the middle east. So, I think in terms of the eventual outcome of this investment, as being well on track and that it will eventually rise to higher significant levels. I feel the CBIs establishment of a peg to the USD in Jan. of '04 to around 1475 as being established after the dinar had risen to a level below 1000 as a way of stabilizing the exchange rate. This allowed stability and increased there currency reserves. I think they knew that increasing currency reserves had to come from outside of the country. Afterall where else would they come from? The problem was that they didn't anticipate how long it would take to form a Govern. reduce outside debt and, since the uprising began in Iraq in April of '04, they didn't anticipate the extent of the violence. So where are they now? They (CBI) are setting on one of the most undervalued currencies in the world. The delays that I have discussed have resulted in a situation that requires a "bold adjust" in the exchange rate value to bring the dinar close to its real market value. Since they have been continuing to sell the dinar at such an undervalued level for so long, the exchane rate has become one of the major contributors to the high inflation rate. This issue was mentioned in the last report from the IMF. In that report, they stated that monetary policies would probably have little effect and that the exchange rate adjustment would have to be considered. I hope these discussion answers some questions. Watching the CBIs auctions in the next couple of days will further establish what type of trend they have in mind. As I stated before, They cannot continue to purchase dinars out of the economy for ever. Thank you for your interest and your comments are appreciated.

I really appreciate your input in this forum, with your knowledge of how the Fed works you have been able to answer so many questions about how the CBI also works as well. You are greatly appreciated.

FSN

Originally Posted by Adster

The dinar is still pegged to the dollar with a very small amount of leverage either way. The movement we see is due to the movement of the dollar, that's why the dinar has come down slightly this past week. As long as the dinar is controlled it will stay around the same rate. That's why we need the CBI to have total control of the dinar and hence revalue it. They will be able to do this after 12 December IMO.

The more dinar they take out of circulation the less they have to pay out once they revalue it. Plus it's bolstering their reserves. Longer this goes on the higher they can revalue it.

I understand what you are saying but with the removal of dinars from the Iraq economy, doesn't that make it harder for the Iraqi's to purchase things they need for day to day living? I realize that with the supply getting smaller their value should raise but isn't there is a lag time that could be catastophic for the Iraqis who are trying to buy things but can't get enough dinars to purchase them until the appreciation of the dinar hits?

By the law of supply and demand, when things are harder to come by, their value increases. But it will take some time for the prices to adjust on the street. During this time the Iraqis will be subjected to more misery and suffering won't they?

All I can say is SSSSHHHHEEEESSSSHHHH!!!! What a way to run a country!!!!!

worf

well adster the amount of dinars you have at least you won't have to buy toilet paper for ten years lol

Originally Posted by Adster

Hhhmmmm, not so good.......hope for all of us and am sure it will have revalued by then or we'll be using the dinars for toilet paper.


Democrats settle on starting pullouts in 4-6 months White House officials say timetables could weaken Iraq

11/13/2006

WASHINGTON — Democrats poised to take control of Congress said Sunday that they would press to begin a phased U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq within four to six months, part of an agenda aimed at overhauling key aspects of U.S. policy in the Middle East.
"First order of business is to change the direction of Iraq policy," said Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., who is in line to become chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee next year.

Senior White House officials countered that setting timetables for U.S. troop withdrawals would weaken the Iraq government and embolden insurgents, but they acknowledged a need for fresh ideas on Iraq and expressed a willingness to negotiate with Democrats on an array of foreign-policy issues.

White House Chief of Staff Josh Bolten indicated on ABC that President Bush would block legislation that calls for a scheduled withdrawal.

"I don't think we're going to be receptive to the notion there's a fixed timetable at which we automatically pull out, because that could be a true disaster for the Iraqi people," Bolten said.

Even so, he said the White House was "willing to talk about anything" and was prepared to adjust tactics.

The developments came as Bush and members of his national-security team prepared to meet today with a panel of foreign-policy experts who have been charged with developing new proposals for how to proceed in Iraq. The panel is headed by James Baker III, who served as secretary of State

when Bush's father was president, and Lee Hamilton, a former Democratic congressman who served as chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
The push for a phased pullout, an idea long rejected by the Bush administration, appears to be gaining momentum. Senior military officials recently have voiced increasing concern that the security benefits of keeping large numbers of troops in Iraq are outweighed by significant downsides of the heavy U.S. presence. Among them are a perceived reluctance of Iraqis to take the lead in stemming violence as long as U.S. forces are there.

"We have to tell the Iraqis that the open-ended commitment is over and that we're going to begin to have a phased withdrawal in four to six months," said Levin, who appeared on ABC's "This Week."

Levin was joined in his call for a phased pullout by Sen. Joseph Biden Jr., D-Del., who is in line to become chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada, the Democratic leader in the Senate, told NBC's "Meet the Press" that decisions on draw-downs should rest with U.S. military officers in Iraq.

Still, Reid said that "we need to redeploy" and that a withdrawal should start within several months.

Iraq was a key factor in Republican losses in last week's election, with nearly 6 in 10 voters participating in exit polls saying they disapproved of the war and a majority calling for a withdrawal of some or all U.S. troops.

Even so, it's unclear how far GOP lawmakers will go to challenge the White House and back calls for a draw-down. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., said Sunday that he believed the United States needed to send more troops to Iraq to curb sectarian violence and reduce the influence of heavily armed Shiite militias.

"I believe that there are a lot of things that we can do to salvage this, but they all require the presence of additional troops," he said on "Meet the Press."

"The question, then, before the American people is: 'Are we ready to quit?' And I believe the consequences of failure are chaos in the region which will spread."

Members of both parties said they expect the Baker-Hamilton commission to recommend that the U.S. hold a conference with representatives from Iraq's Middle East neighbors to seek cooperation in pacifying the country and creating a stable government.

Biden told ABC that Iran and Syria should be included in such a conference, because of their influence in the region. Baker recently met with an Iranian envoy at the United Nations to discuss the prospects for cooperation.

A proposal that calls for joint meetings with Syria and Iran would pose diplomatic problems for the Bush administration, which has labeled Iran as part of an "axis of evil" and has been reluctant to engage either country.

Bolten stopped short of rejecting such a conference but made it clear that the White House didn't believe dialogue with Iran and Syria would improve matters.

"I don't think there's been a communications problem; there's been a cooperation problem," he said. "Iran and Syria have been meddling in Iraq in a very unhelpful way."

Inside Bay Area - Democrats settle on starting pullouts in 4-6 months

Originally Posted by worf

So if I understand you correctly, the CBI is actually exchanging dinars for us dollars? Then they are pulling them out of circulation?

worf

Thats a big yes.