Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

When i worked in Mexico the PECO ! it's peso ...... ha,ha,ha peco ! :)

Originally Posted by jessemac

When i worked in Mexico the PECO ! it's peso ...... ha,ha,ha peco ! :)

please excuse my typing error...I thought I had them all corrected. Obviously not...thanks for pointing that out.

Originally Posted by Dinar-Excited

Hi Everyone,

Just a thought but they have stated that with big announcements like FIL and HCL they would be published in the Gazette or a lot of different news papers. I was reading one of SGS posts earlier to regards of the CBI statement being published in many papers around Iraq. Now I maybe grasping at straws but this is just a thought that maybe the are announcing the RV and will enact the RV ASAP!!!!!!

JUST A THOUGHT!!!!!!!

Dinar-Excited

this reminded me of a crazy thought I had a few days ago...

About two or three times a year I hear a story on the news (TV) about how a person (A GUY) buys a full page ad in the NY Times (or another MAJOR newspaper) for US $50,000 to propose to his girlfriend or someting else silly...

I say we get collection going (I'll pitch in the first 25,000 bill) and buy a full page ad in The Baghdad Times or Gazette and print an article that the dinar is R/V at let's say the old rate of .31...

Or we can print in big bold letters "Hey CBI, R/V the FACKER ALREADY"

Just my 2 dinars...time for bed...

Dinarstars

Al Sabbah.... Another article mentioning the exchange rate...

Economic :the investment climate to attract workers for the entry of foreign capital Imad Principality affected the investment climate of the political, social and institutional development in the host country,These factors have a significant impact as a unit of overlapping can not downplay their significance.In this direction pointed financial expert in the Ministry of Finance (Hilal war) to several factors affecting the (investment climate), including in Iraq,the lack of supporting institutions for a market economy and the fact that the existence of such institutions is working to attract foreign investment and the instability of the political situation and security is one of the determinants facing the entry of foreign capital to a country in Iraq, for example, takes this side of 30% - 40% of project expenditures operating in the country.March and investment in Iraq despite the attention given to the importance of foreign investment, through laws before the fall of the regime, as well as by the authority (the occupation) after the events of 4-9-2003 and submission of the proposal (text) Foreign Investment Law No. (39) for the year (2003) and to facilitate the attraction of foreign investment, which stated (that facilitate Alastthmforeign TR will help develop infrastructure and boost the growth of Iraqi industries and contribute to the creation of job opportunities and increase the capital and result in the entry of new technology to Iraq).Hilal pointed to the fact that security was heavy shadow on the march and got several international meetings on this subject and promises to invest 38 billion dollars did not receive the state only a little added through the frameworks discussed in the economic, social and particularly in the economic structures and conditions of the economyYeh prevailing in the country and the range of development must focus on basic infrastructure in Iraq, such as health, education and means of communication, water and sewage networks, electricity and other services which are pillars to be fulfilled in any process they play an important role not only in determining the investment volumes as athe polarized in host economies and even distribution between sectors and this has made many nations in a competitive race to attract (foreign investment) through direct facilities without extensive consideration of the social effects resulting from the lack of proper planning to pay many of the economic institutions for PththiR. Governments led astray by those policies and social impact (Helal) described the environment as a paramilitary Iraqi infrastructure destroyed therefore the responsibility rests on the planned mission in the Iraqi economic consideration of the reality of the Iraqi budget in the process of attracting foreign capital through programs that the Iraqi economy and the promotion of modernization andmerging the global economy, according to legislative axes that are flexible, attractive and the creation of (economic environment for investment) and requires that work according to several factors, including the stabilization of the Iraqi currency (the dinar) because studies proved the existence of a negative correlation between the exchange rate and the flow of foreign investment because of exchange rateexchange lead to the rapid changes in the relative profitability of investment returns,the strongest factor is the reduction of (inflation), which in turn affects the movement of capital as it affects the production costs and profitability of the market and the investment climate studies conducted over 54 developing countries emerged that there was a negative correlation between high rates of inflation and foreign investment because of the weakness of the economy in the host countries, which poses a threat toinvestors and then work on the development and promotion of exports, especially non-oil and reorganization (of the banking system) to meet the economic conditions of local and foreign work on controlling the deficit in the (budget) of the Iraqi State and mitigation of (foreign debt) and to develop the infrastructure and facilities insistedYueh in the Iraqi economy as well as that we should find new incentives commensurate with the needs of investors and implementation of promotional campaigns to identify the advantages and the attractiveness of investment in the host country (Iraq) ... ( Hilal) said that foreign investment is affected by the extent of political stability in the host country that the political factor more a factordummy to take different (private investment decisions), and even the Assembly and the fact that this is a group of several risks in the investment process, including (nationalization,the confiscation of private property,government intervention in economic activity) and this impacts negatively on building economic projects and create obstacles to attracting foreign investment.


I think in the red highlighted part, the writer is referring to people (foreign investors) coming to Iraq and buying it all up for pennies... just like we have talked about on the forum...

Guardian Unlimited | Comment is free | Why stop the Great Satan? He's driving himself to hell

Simon Jenkins is an ex-editor of The Times who now writes for The Guardian. His painful conclusion is that Washington & London will have to go cap in hand to the Ayatollahs to bail them out of Iraq.

Guardian Unlimited

Excerpts:

As we approach the beginning of the end in Iraq there will be much throat-clearing and breast-beating before reality replaces denial. For the moment, denial still rules. In America last week I was shocked at how unaware even anti-war Americans are (like many Britons) of the depth of the predicament in Iraq. They compare it with Vietnam or the Balkans - but it is not the same. It is total anarchy. All sentences beginning, "What we should now do in Iraq ... " are devoid of meaning. We are in no position to do anything. We have no potency; that is the definition of anarchy.

[...]

From all available reports, Iraq south of the Kurdistan border is beyond central authority, a patchwork of gang lands, sheikhdoms and lawlessness. Anbar province and most of the Sunni triangle is controlled by independent Sunni militias. The only safe movement for outsiders is by helicopter at night. Baghdad is like Beirut in 1983, with nightly massacres, roadblocks everywhere and mixed neighborhoods emptying into safe ones. As yesterday's awful kidnapping shows, even a uniform is a death certificate. As for the cities of the south, control depends on which Shia militia has been able to seize the local police station.

The Iraqi army, such as it is, cannot be deployed outside its local area and is therefore useless for counter-insurgency. There is no central police force. There is no public administration. The Maliki government barely rules the Green Zone in which it is entombed. American troops guard it as they might an outpost of the French Legion in the Sahara. There is no point in patrolling a landscape one cannot control. It merely alienates the population and turns soldiers into targets.

To talk of a collapse into civil war if "we leave" Iraq is to completely misread the chaos into which that country has descended under our rule. It implies a model of order wholly absent on the ground. Foreign soldiers can stay in their bases, but they will no more "prevent civil war" than they can "import democracy". They are relevant only as target practice for insurgents and recruiting sergeants for al-Qaida. The occupation of Iraq has passed from brutality to mere idiocy.

[...]

Bush and Blair are men in a hurry, and such men lose wars. If there is a game plan in Tehran it will be to play Iraq long. Why stop the Great Satan when he is driving himself to hell in a handcart? If London and Washington really want help in this part of the world they must start from diplomatic ground zero. They will have to stop the holier-than-thou name-calling and the pretence that they hold any cards. They will have to realize that this war has lost them all leverage in the region. They can insult and sanction and threaten. But there is nothing left for them to "do" but leave. They are no longer the subject of that mighty verb, only its painful object

Originally Posted by warrior44

i'm just wanting to know your thoughts, after the CBI let the cat out of the bag in regards to the exchange rate to change. don't you think this shuold r/v quickly or all of the big hitters will jump on board, and if they don't r/v real soon how will this effect iraq as a whole as well as our investment?

CBI made a statement in Feb 2006 stating that the value of the dinar will significantly rise in 2006. Guess that fuelled speculation to a certain degree though most investors will look at Iraq as a very high-risk proposition based on the security alone. I don't think such statements will lead to mass speculation.

Originally Posted by SeaRayaWaitin'

I don't know who made up this whole line of reasoning but I think it is a completely bogus assumption. Not ripping on you warrior but I keep seeing people talk about "buying up Iraq for pennies on the dollar". Who came up with this? It makes no sense at all. If it did then why aren't the "big boys" out buying up all the countries with hyper-low exchange rates? The reason everyone keeps getting all hyped up and then let down is because they're operating under invalid assumptions and presumptions that have somehow magically become fact as they are passed around the circle from ear to ear. I think we will see a very nice exchange rate at some point in time fairly soon but I think that at least half of the "indicators" we're looking at are invalid.

Very well said. Every country has laws or will do as in Iraq's case to prevent foreign ownership to a certain point to protect its economy and sovereignty. The theory that Iraq could be bought for pennies if it didn't revalue its currency is very misleading and totally inaccurate. There is a thin line between delusions of grandeur and optimism.

We all know that the logical thing for Iraq to do would be to revalue their currency so it kick starts their economy and hopefully iron out the security issues as a result of a hike in the purchasing power of the dinar. It's a question of time and it's looking likely that the wait will be at least another 3 to 4 months.

Originally Posted by Frank Rizzo

Al Sabbah.... Another article mentioning the exchange rate...

including the stabilization of the Iraqi currency (the dinar) because studies proved the existence of a negative correlation between the exchange rate and the flow of foreign investment because of exchange rate lead to the rapid changes in the relative profitability of investment returns,the strongest factor is the reduction of (inflation) which in turn affects the movement of capital as it affects the production costs and profitability of the market and the investment climate studies conducted over 54 developing countries emerged that there was a negative correlation between high rates of inflation and foreign investment because of the weakness of the economy in the host countries

I think in the red highlighted part, the writer is referring to people (foreign investors) coming to Iraq and buying it all up for pennies... just like we have talked about on the forum...

Could be.

What i thought after reading this was that inflation is a huge problem if i want to do business or invest in Iraq. If prices keep going up (because of inflation) it will be much harder for me, as a business owner, to make a profit.

When peoples income can't keep up with inflation, they don't buy much except the essentials. Are they going to buy a new TV if they can't afford bread or cooking gas?

It says theres a negative correlation between investment dollars and the exchange rate.

So, we know that imports cost a lot right now because of the low purchasing power of the Dinar but also production costs increase because of inflation.

Not talking about the oil industry, my take is that a much better exchange rate along with reasonable inflation numbers is needed for foreign investors to get a good return on their investment.

Originally Posted by postcon

It's a question of time and it's looking likely that the wait will be at least another 3 to 4 months.

can i please have a go with your crystal ball?

cheers.

did you polish it b4 looking into it??!!

otherwise, please post a link or some methodology to back this pure speculation up...

from my guessing, the recent auction results are telling a much more hurried story!

Originally Posted by boomcreek

How do we know that CBI has drawn in their targeted amount of dinar from the local economies? Please explain.

We don't know what the targeted amount is - so we won't know when they will have drawn in sufficient amounts to substantiate the rv. We just have to watch and wait. This thing could happen anytime. (jmo) People have talked about large investors "buying up" Iraq. The drawing in of dinars will make this less of a factor as well - you can't buy up what isn't there. They (the CBI) will have taken in to consideration how much dinar remains in circulation when they revalue the currency - and the reval amount will reflect what they can feasibly "exchange" and still keep the system afloat - whether it be .31 - or much more. They will have also taken into consideration the turn-around or reinvestment of bigger investors buying up the revalued dinar as quickly as it is exchanged back into the system, thus supporting the rv amount as well. Revaluing it at a healthy, but still slightly undervalued rate will encourage this sell off/buy up theory - making the rv finance itself. Does this make sense? Again - this is just my opinion.