Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Originally Posted by Wm.Knowles

This question will continue to come up as we watch this process. "Are they getting close to the bottom as to how much they (CBI) can pull out". I am always hesitant to speculate. Yes, there is a trend here where in the near term they will have reached their target goal (and they have one). The fact that they have intervened buying so much in such a short period is what interests me. This overal picture is very GOOD for all of us and you should be excited to watch this process. We are truly seeing a remakrable "thing" right before our eyes. As always, I am optimistic and think we are "close to the bottom".

We appreciate your input, please clarify again, was it the Federal Bank you worked for?

So, although none of us know for sure on a timescale or an amount, I'm intrigued as to your own thoughts for an initial reval amount? I'm still in the $1 to $1.48 opening region as this can be backed by a combination of foreign reserves, gold and even oil if they choose to go that way.

Thanks.

Originally Posted by Adster

All the big boys going, sounds like some sort of deals being done.....

Baghdad-Sabah


Enter Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki day visit to Turkey to discuss the prospects for cooperation between the two countries and to update stabilize Iraq's relations with neighboring countries. A source in the Prime Minister's Office for the "morning" : The delegation including seven ministers and four members of the House of Representatives as well as a number of advisers and deputy ministers accompanying Maliki in the visit.
He explained that the ministers are Hoshyar Zebari, the foreign minister and the statement of Jabr Al-Zubaydi, Minister of Finance, Karim Wahid, Minister of Electricity and Hussein Shahrastani Oil Minister Abdel farmer and the Sudanese Minister of Trade and express Nazim Aboudi Minister of Agriculture and Shirwan Alowaeli and Minister of State for National Security Affairs. As well as Yassin Majeed Media Advisor in the Office of the Prime Minister. The source added that members of the House who are on the accompanying Maliki writer and Iyad al-Samarra'i, Hassan al-Shamri, Humam Hammoudi. In Ankara announced a spokesman for the Turkish prime minister said yesterday that Maliki will be today, Thursday, will hold talks in Ankara with his counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan on bilateral relations and the PKK.

THEY ARE NOT COVERING THEIR TRACKS TO WELL WITH US ROLCLUB DETECTIVES. DOCUMENT ON THE IAMB WEBSITE:

This was dated: 22 Oct 2006 - post on website nov. 6th or there after.
IAMB LINK

To: IAMB Members

Metering of Iraqi Crude Oil

Here below is an update on the above subject based on the latest information received
from the Ministry of Oil and as followed up by the Board of Supreme Audit.

Khor Al-Omya Terminal - Southern Iraq

The Misnistry of Oil is currently evaluation the offers received from various companies for the supply of specialized metering equipemnt for this terminal.

Basrah Terminal - Southern Iraq

Because of the security situation in the area, the suppliers of metering equipment have declined to visit related sites to determine metering needs and specification. Consequently, the American Agencies were approached to undertake the task and to be financed from American appropriated funds. The Agencies responded and contracted with Parson Company to install the needed metering system on this terminal and the work to be completed by mid 2006. Parson have not met their contractual commitments and the matter is now being followed up with the American Agencies to either urge Parsons to fulfil their obligations or seek another company to complete the work.

Zakho Station and Jihan Terminal in Turkey

There are complete metering systems in both these locations.

Further, the Ministry of oil is proceeding with its own plan to establish an advanced and comprehensive metering system based on internationally accepted practices and updating present systems to link production statistics with the commercial transactions and the financial accounts. In this regard, agreement has been reached with SHELL and BP to implement the above stated comprehensive system and to upgrade present metering systems for Basrah terminal and tank farms there at no charge to the Ministry of Oil. It is hoped that this task will be completed before the end of 2006 (IT DONE). The Ministry of Oil and after discussing details of the system once completed with all related parties, intends to have the agreed upon comprehesive system ratified by the binding national law. (HERE IS WHAT THIS WONDERFUL MEETING WILL BE ALL ABOUT TODAY)

The Ministry of Oil will thereafter purchase all required metering equipment at inlet and outlet points. Costs of such puchases will be covered by appropriation from the capital budget for 2008.

Iraq Representative on IAMB
22 October 2006.

Another 39 million dollars sold, another 59 billion dinars brought into the CBI, with zero dollars coming back into the reserves of the CBI. I've lost track of an accurate count of the total amount of dinars that have been taken out of circulation, but I believe it to be somewhere between 1.3 to 1.5 trillion dinars. This is the last auction of this week and we see the rate of exchange has dropped another point. (My prediction was another 5 points, oh well). Personally I would like to see a reval any day now, but logically I have to keep looking to the meeting of the IAMB on the 12th of December. The Director of the CBI will have full authority to implement changes in regards to monetary policy without the overseers of the IAMB looking over his shoulder. Kind of like what the Prime Minister of Japan said not too long ago, "I hear all that the US President and Congress have to say about the direction of the US economy, but I listen to Alan Greenspan, that's the true indication of where they are going" I wish I knew how long the CBI was going to continue this dinar retraction program, but all that we read confirms that we are closer than we have ever been to a reval. If we get to the 12th of December and beyond without a reval, then I don't know what it will take to get them to make the decision. Remember Kofi Annan's statement about "the big surprise", well he leaves office at the end of this year, I don't think he's going to go out without a pocket full of cash. Time will tell, it would sure make for a nice Christmas.


NOTE:
The 807 daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq day Thursday 2006 / 11/ 16 so the results were as follows :

Details Notes
Number of banks 12 -----
Auction price selling dinar / US $ 1454 -----
Auction price buying dinar / US $ ------ -----
Amount sold at auction price (US $) 39.945.000 -----
Amount purchased at Auction price (US $) ------
Total offers for buying (US $) 39.945.000 -----
Total offers for selling (US $) ------ -----

US plans last big push in Iraq: US plans last big push in Iraq
Strategy document calls for extra 20,000 troops, aid for Iraqi army and regional summit
By SIMON TISDALL

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

16 November 2006 (The Guardian)
President George Bush has told senior advisers that the US and its allies must make "a last big push" to win the war in Iraq and that instead of beginning a troop withdrawal next year, he may increase US forces by up to 20,000 soldiers, according to sources familiar with the administration's internal deliberations.

Mr Bush's refusal to give ground, coming in the teeth of growing calls in the US and Britain for a radical rethink or a swift exit, is having a decisive impact on the policy review being conducted by the Iraq Study Group chaired by Bush family loyalist James Baker, the sources said.

Although the panel's work is not complete, its recommendations are expected to be built around a four-point "victory strategy" developed by Pentagon officials advising the group. The strategy, along with other related proposals, is being circulated in draft form and has been discussed in separate closed sessions with Mr Baker and the vice-president Dick Cheney, an Iraq war hawk.

Point one of the strategy calls for an increase rather than a decrease in overall US force levels inside Iraq, possibly by as many as 20,000 soldiers. This figure is far fewer than that called for by the Republican presidential hopeful, John McCain. But by raising troop levels, Mr Bush will draw a line in the sand and defy Democratic pressure for a swift drawdown.

The reinforcements will be used to secure Baghdad, scene of the worst sectarian and insurgent violence, and enable redeployments of US, coalition and Iraqi forces elsewhere in the country.

Point two of the plan stresses the importance of regional cooperation to the successful rehabilitation of Iraq. This could involve the convening of an international conference of neighbouring countries or more direct diplomatic, financial and economic involvement of US allies such as oil-rich Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

"The extent to which that [regional cooperation] will include talking to Iran and Syria is still up for debate," said Patrick Cronin, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "Externally, US policy is focused on what is achievable. Some quarters believe Syria in some ways could be helpful. There are more doubts about Iran but Iran holds more cards. Some think it's worth a try."

Point three of the plan focuses on reviving the national reconciliation process between Shia, Sunni and other ethnic and religious parties that collapsed this year. According to the sources, creating a credible political framework will be portrayed as crucial in persuading Iraqis and neighbouring countries alike that Iraq can become a fully functional state.

To the certain dismay of US neo-cons, initial post-invasion ideas about imposing fully-fledged western democratic standards will be set aside. And the report is expected to warn that de facto tripartite partition within a loose federal system, as advocated by Democratic senator Joe Biden and others would lead not to peaceful power-sharing but a large-scale humanitarian crisis.

Lastly, the sources said the study group recommendations will include a call for increased resources to be allocated by Congress to support additional troop deployments and fund the training and equipment of expanded Iraqi army and police forces. It will also stress the need to counter corruption, improve local gov ernment and curtail the power of religious courts.

"You've got to remember, whatever the Democrats say, it's Bush still calling the shots. He believes it's a matter of political will. That's what [Henry] Kissinger told him. And he's going to stick with it," a former senior administration official said. "He [Bush] is in a state of denial about Iraq. Nobody else is any more. But he is. But he knows he's got less than a year, maybe six months, to make it work. If it fails, I expect the withdrawal process to begin next fall."

The "last push" strategy is also intended in part to give Mr Bush and the Republicans "political time and space" to recover from this month's mid-term election drubbing and prepare for the 2008 presidential campaign, the official said. "The Iraq Study Group buys time for the president to have one last go. If the Democrats are smart, they'll play along, and I think they will. But forget about bipartisanship. It's all about who's going to be in best shape to win the White House.

The official added: "Bush has said 'no' to withdrawal, so what else do you have? The Baker report will be a set of ideas, more realistic than in the past, that can be used as political tools. What they're going to say is: lower the goals, forget about the democracy crap, put more resources in, do it."

Addressing Congress yesterday, General John Abizaid, the top US commander in the Middle East, warned against setting a timetable for the withdrawal of troops from Iraq, saying it would im pede commanders in managing US and Iraqi forces. Gen Abizaid spoke as the Senate armed services committee began re-examining US policy after last week's Democratic election victory. But Gen Abizaid argued against extra troops, saying that US divisional commanders believed more pressure needed to be put on the Iraqi army to do its part.

Originally Posted by Socata 850

Another 39 million dollars sold, another 59 billion dinars brought into the CBI, with zero dollars coming back into the reserves of the CBI. I've lost track of an accurate count of the total amount of dinars that have been taken out of circulation, but I believe it to be somewhere between 1.3 to 1.5 trillion dinars. This is the last auction of this week and we see the rate of exchange has dropped another point. (My prediction was another 5 points, oh well). Personally I would like to see a reval any day now, but logically I have to keep looking to the meeting of the IAMB on the 12th of December. The Director of the CBI will have full authority to implement changes in regards to monetary policy without the overseers of the IAMB looking over his shoulder. Kind of like what the Prime Minister of Japan said not too long ago, "I hear all that the US President and Congress have to say about the direction of the US economy, but I listen to Alan Greenspan, that's the true indication of where they are going" I wish I knew how long the CBI was going to continue this dinar retraction program, but all that we read confirms that we are closer than we have ever been to a reval. If we get to the 12th of December and beyond without a reval, then I don't know what it will take to get them to make the decision. Remember Kofi Annan's statement about "the big surprise", well he leaves office at the end of this year, I don't think he's going to go out without a pocket full of cash. Time will tell, it would sure make for a nice Christmas.


NOTE:
The 807 daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq day Thursday 2006 / 11/ 16 so the results were as follows :

Details Notes
Number of banks 12 -----
Auction price selling dinar / US $ 1454 -----
Auction price buying dinar / US $ ------ -----
Amount sold at auction price (US $) 39.945.000 -----
Amount purchased at Auction price (US $) ------
Total offers for buying (US $) 39.945.000 -----
Total offers for selling (US $) ------ -----

Good post, in agreement about the big meeting on the 12th. Not saying they can't reval anytime but it may be more likely once they have full control of the dinar. Only 4 weeks away, debt forgiveness, ICI, EU agreements, fil, and oil law possibly, just a thought folks.

Originally Posted by MrsCK

THEY ARE NOT COVERING THEIR TRACKS TO WELL WITH US ROLCLUB DETECTIVES. DOCUMENT ON THE IAMB WEBSITE:

This was dated: 22 Oct 2006 - post on website nov. 6th or there after.
IAMB LINK

To: IAMB Members

Metering of Iraqi Crude Oil

Here below is an update on the above subject based on the latest information received
from the Ministry of Oil and as followed up by the Board of Supreme Audit.

Khor Al-Omya Terminal - Southern Iraq

The Misnistry of Oil is currently evaluation the offers received from various companies for the supply of specialized metering equipemnt for this terminal.

Basrah Terminal - Southern Iraq

Because of the security situation in the area, the suppliers of metering equipment have declined to visit related sites to determine metering needs and specification. Consequently, the American Agencies were approached to undertake the task and to be financed from American appropriated funds. The Agencies responded and contracted with Parson Company to install the needed metering system on this terminal and the work to be completed by mid 2006. Parson have not met their contractual commitments and the matter is now being followed up with the American Agencies to either urge Parsons to fulfil their obligations or seek another company to complete the work.

Zakho Station and Jihan Terminal in Turkey

There are complete metering systems in both these locations.

Further, the Ministry of oil is proceeding with its own plan to establish an advanced and comprehensive metering system based on internationally accepted practices and updating present systems to link production statistics with the commercial transactions and the financial accounts. In this regard, agreement has been reached with SHELL and BP to implement the above stated comprehensive system and to upgrade present metering systems for Basrah terminal and tank farms there at no charge to the Ministry of Oil. It is hoped that this task will be completed before the end of 2006 (IT DONE). The Ministry of Oil and after discussing details of the system once completed with all related parties, intends to have the agreed upon comprehesive system ratified by the binding national law. (HERE IS WHAT THIS WONDERFUL MEETING WILL BE ALL ABOUT TODAY)

The Ministry of Oil will thereafter purchase all required metering equipment at inlet and outlet points. Costs of such puchases will be covered by appropriation from the capital budget for 2008.

Iraq Representative on IAMB
22 October 2006.

trading in oil, metering oil for trade, a ratified binding national law. hmmmmm

Guys, when is Rice due out there, is it some time next week? Brainache with all these facking articles!

Originally Posted by Wm.Knowles

Ref: Today's CBI auction

Well, we can see today that the CBI is following the same trend we have discussed over the last two weeks. It appears they have removed another 40M USD from the economy and increased the exchange rate by 1 dinar to 1454. My impression stands as it has been, a dramatic monetary intervention in a short period of time to reduce the base money supply. Having worked with bankers who tend to be a very conservative types, this is a "panic" intervention with the goal of completing a removal in a short period. Very unusal considering. Any country that can remove this much currency and still maintain currency reserves is impressive. The last estimate I have of Iraqs currency reserves is at least two months old and it was around 12B in reserves. (This does not include the reported Gold they apparently have). So, it is probable that they have intervened and removed close to One Trillion dinars from the economy and may STILL have over 12 billion in reserves. So if my information is correct, they have a GOI who has a 34 Billion dollar budget and is able to operate within budget, they have more currency reserves than almost all of the countries there size, they have eliminated most of there debt to where it is about one percent of there CURRENT GNP. There oil production is approaching 3MBD (the best report that I found was 2.6 MBD and only for a short time) Opec quota was 2MBD.
they have oil reserves that may place them ahead of SA in their amount of oil. (economists called this "stored value"). And, we have seen a very responsible monatery intervention by the CBI which is consistent with the SBA from the IMF and classic economic theory and practice. So, look forward to this removal "drying up" in days or a couple of weeks. With their currency reserves, they may continue this process for a while longer, but it can not last forever. They simply want to remove as much excess dinar from the economy at as cheap of price as possible before some one makes them "pay up". This is exactly what you or I would do. Have a good day and weekend and we'll see what the news reports.

It's obvious that the banks must sell dinar to meet dollar demand for customers who purchase imports with USD so either way banks have to sell dinar and purchase USD.
Now if the CBI wanted to purchase on the cheap they would have left the rate at 1470 or close where they would be receiving 15 extra dinar by USD, so every million USD sold would draw an additional 15 million dinar.
The incentive to banks argument could be used but doesn't appear to be the case with Iraq's current situation. This has got to be CBI taking aim at the IMF's projection rate for end of 2006.
A significant rise against the dollar in 2006?, maybe not to us but to the Iraqi's, maybe?

Thursday, November 16, 2006

Regular press briefing by David Hawley, Assistant Director of External Relations Thursday, November 16, 2006, 10:00 AM, R-710 IMF Headquarters. Journalists should enter through the IMF Center entrance, 720 19th St. NW, Washington, DC. Doors will open at 9:15 AM. Please bring a valid photo ID and allow a few minutes to clear through security and proceed to R-710

IMF PRESS BRIEFING TODAY

Originally Posted by shotgunsusie

IMF PRESS BRIEFING TODAY

Good find Sus, not sure Iraq is on the agenda though.....