Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Originally Posted by Alphamystic

From this post, as well as others you have posted, indicate to me that the RV will not be a one-time shot nor a slow raising process BUT rather a combination of the two.

After catching up on my reading; I would say I agree with this view. What you have been posting makes logical sense AND it seems to me that this is indeed what we are seeing happen right now.

Am I correct in this assumption?

Yes, The third option is a combination of both points of view. I have said before that an RV should be viewed as a process and NOT as a one time singular event. A gradual rise in the currency combined with adjustments enough to increase their purchasing power makes sense.

Originally Posted by Alphamystic

From this post, as well as others you have posted, indicate to me that the RV will not be a one-time shot nor a slow raising process BUT rather a combination of the two.

After catching up on my reading; I would say I agree with this view. What you have been posting makes logical sense AND it seems to me that this is indeed what we are seeing happen right now.

Am I correct in this assumption?

From what I have witnessed, logic has very little to do with accomplishments in Iraq. Corruption is accepted as standard operating procedure. There is a correlation between Iraq and Mexico, where corruption is concerned.

Originally Posted by jedi17

Morning all....I'm going to the Scotia bank today to see if I can still get some Dinar. This is one of the two banks we could get dinar from, however the cibc charges a 45.00 fee....I'll get back to you later.

went to Scotia Bank...ordered 125,000 IQD, and it cost me 110.00 CDN. pick it up in 24-48 hrs.

Something that I have been pondering on is when the ICI is actually signed. Does anyone remember when it was supposed to be brought up for approval?

With all of the dates that have been posted lately I seem to have lost that date in the shuffle.

Thanks in advance.

Originally Posted by worf

I agree with your points noted above but I do have some concerns. Better grab a cup of coffee this is going to be a long one.

1. I have been with the dinar gang since early spring of '06 and during this time especially during the summer months and the fall til the present, the concensus has always been "r/v is imminent" and the various slogans "Sept to remember", "Oct surprise" "Remember remember reval in November" etc. These (up to now) have proved to be inaccurate.

2. The cbi seems to be rock solid and the govt is not. To say the area around Bagdad is in shambles is being kind.

3. To say the current govt in Baghdad is inept is being kind. The radicals are in a fierce fight for control and if things don't change dramatically, they might win.

4. Maliki has either got to have an epiphany (life changing religious experience) or has to go. IMO His leadership is far too weak to get the job done.

5. The US elections have changed the balance of power in the US, and now the dems are screaming for us to get out asap! Maliki's time is almost up (probably by the end of the year) IMO. They need a "strong man" who will go after the militias and parliment to get the job done (see previously posted article).

Now to put this together. It appears to me that if I can figure this out and the cbi folks are a lot smarter than me, then they have figured this out as well. So how can they proceed to satisfy the international community and honor their various agreements as well as be well aware of the events going on around them? I am afraid what they are going to do is move the exchange rate to the 1365 dinars = 1.00 by the end of the year as previously stated and agreed upon. Wait for the removal of Maliki and the setting up of a new govt. Then after some stability and control returns to Iraq, then re-address the raising of the dinar to it's rightful value. Unfortunately it appears to me that this is what they think is their logical course of action.

WmKnowles has already stated that bankers aren't concerned about what anybody thinks or might be suffering. So if you can remove your compassion and morals from your thinking process, ignore the crying in the streets, children without parents, food etc., massive poverty, inflation etc., then you might think in those terms. I certainly hope this doesn't happen. And as I stated above, these are some of my fears as what might happen, not what is going to happen necissarily.

My question to all of this is what WmKnowles has stated conerning the auctions, that being pulling out over 1 trillion dinars so far and apparantly continuing on for a while more. To move the exchange rate from 1470 to the stated 1365 by years end, do they need to pull out this much dinar from circulation? Do you think this will moderate inflation or is it going to take a full fledged r/v? Or does this indicate a much large change ie r/v is the more likely course?

As stated above, I agree with Adster's thinking, but facts on the ground seem to disagree with a sudden immediate, immenient r/v by the end of the year IMO.

Finally add to this mix the enormous amounts of spending for next year, the 60% pay raise for parlament, the purchasing of all the aircraft, investment in infastructure etc, they are sending out so many mixed signals what is one to believe? One thing is apparant, the Iraqis and their timelines aren't very trustworthy (remember 10k dinar hand out which still hasn't happened although promised repeatedly) and their comments and commitments to their people don't seem to be either. Imagine if you or I didn't show up to work for no good reason other than to stall impending legislation that would help your fellow citizens, and then vote yourself a 60% payraise!!!

My intention by writing this is not to discourage anyone but rather to bring up another point of view that might help moderate if we don't r/v by years end. Maybe WmKnowles or other currency experts can refute these comments and show why cbi actions indicate a full blown r/v instead of just a exchange rate adjustment. I for one would love to read why my comments are off track and the r/v is going to happen by year's end.

worf

While I agree with most of what you say, I don't quite follow the underpinning to your treatise, which as I understand it, is that an r/v will not work as well under Maliki as it would under a new and stronger leader. This may be true to a certain extent, but if you were Maliki wouldn't you try an r/v?

Military force has failed miserably, religious leadership has failed even more
miserably, new political action since May and June has shown a few glimmers of hope - but Iraq's leaders have yet to try a serious jolt of financial/economic medicine such as an r/v could possibly administer. The Kurds are leading the way here. Their real estate values are rising significantly; their economic activity is improving quickly; their unemployment rate is down; and they are even talking about tourism for God's sakes.

An r/v could jump start the whole ecomony, reduce unemployment in a big way (which I think is the key to moderating the sectarian violence) and
make Maliki look like a hero.

I know Maliki can't order an r/v by himself, but he still has a lot of power.
And if he knows what's good for him and his country, he'll find a way to make it happen soon.

Exxon, Shell, Chase, BP, HSBC, Bank of America and others are chomping at the bit to get into Iraq. All they need is the enactment of the FIL and Hydro-Carbon Law, and they will be streaming over the border.

Iraq's leaders are fiddling while their country is burning. Install an r/v, followed immediately by enactment of the FIL and Hydrocarbon Law, and
just sit back and watch Adam Smith lead the country into prosperity.

Originally Posted by Adster

Nice one Wardy. We have to remember that Iraq is following the Marshall Plan, FACT. And we know what happened with Germany, they revalued their currency after bringing in a new currency. Well Iraq brought in a new currency 3 years ago, and it's staying at least until they join the GCC. Could be we're waiting on the signing of the Compact in mid December for our reval, we should have fil and maybe oil law done and dusted by then.

We have to sit tight, frustrating I know, hey, noone wants this more badly than I do, promised Mrs A a 2.5 million pad in the exclusive part of the village, and no going back on that!!!!

Just hope it's this side of xmas for all involved.

You are right you must keep your word....the Mrs. deserves it....... You are also right about the Marshall plan and we are close..........

Originally Posted by rvalreadydang

The Ministry of Finance announced that the rate of inflation Iraqi economic reconstruction of Iraq has risen to about 76%. as a result of deteriorating security conditions and instability to such a rise. The ministry added that the high rate of inflation also due to the administrative and financial corruption suffered by the Iraqi ministries and institutions. should be a reference to the proportion of the unemployed in Iraq, estimated at about 46%. It is noteworthy that the government has drawn up a new plan to deal with this rise in the inflation rate of economic

جريدة المواطن العراقية

Wasn't there an article that came out about 2 weeks ago where they denied that inflation was at 76% and they had gotten it back down to 50%? So if it is still at 76%, then what the CBI is doing with the auctions isn't working very well to curb inflation. This only tells me that they are running out of options and have to reval soon before inflation goes to triple digits! Comments please?

Originally Posted by Wm.Knowles

Have you ever had a BFO? I just had one! (Blinding Flash of the Obvious) This "blocking speculators" may be why we are seeing Chase Banks that were selling dinar who no longer sells, and why we can not get a good confirmation if BOA is selling or not, the pipeline has dried up and they simply can not get dinar any longer. Make sense?

I bought from Chase over the weekend, got the dinar on the spot.

I just called 4 Chase locations and all said yes you can buy dinar.

Originally Posted by Mike5200

Wasn't there an article that came out about 2 weeks ago where they denied that inflation was at 76% and they had gotten it back down to 50%? So if it is still at 76%, then what the CBI is doing with the auctions isn't working very well to curb inflation. This only tells me that they are running out of options and have to reval soon before inflation goes to triple digits! Comments please?

That makes absolute sense. Problem is do they see that and realize that there are almost no other alternatives for the salvation of their current economical problems.

As Mr. Knowles mentioned before a low revaluation might help to curb some of the problems that are experienced right now. While I stick to my guns that anything under $.31 is not going to achieve the necessary improvements needed for a rolling economy, even $.01 will allow for a overall modest improvement in their current GDP.

Originally Posted by Adster

Make for a great xmas for all involved!

Hospital on Thursday morning, have given Mrs A a run through on how to post etc on here! Hope to be back on personally early next week.

I wish you good luck Adster, and have a quick recovery