Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

I am reposting this because I fear I did not make my point clear and I do value the input of the folks here. mind you I'm not saying its factual just interesting.

I had a thought and I'm going to bounce it on the forum and see what you folks think.

My thought is the RV is coming after inflation is overcome by exchange rate adjustment.

How about using the inflation rate as our “Yard stick”? Some reports have it at 50% others say 76% per annum so for this exercise lets choose the higher rate. This figure would work out to 6.33 percent. Would it be safe to conclude a 6-7 percent adjustment in the rate to overcome inflation?

Figuring 7 percent this would translate to 103.32 dinars on the rate.

The figure is based on the weekly report on IRAQ by the state department dated Nov 15th page 19 [Thanks TX. TEA] I started at a Sept rate of 1476 ID which is where the report states that the CBI began to adjust the rate. We are currently at 1449 or a movement of 27 points. This leaves perhaps 76.32 points of movement until inflation is in check. If the recent movement is any indication of the rate of adjustment then we have watched a 2-3 dinar average auction adjustment. At two an auction the number of required auctions would be 38 but I'm leaning closer to 2.5-3 Figuring three 3 would require about 25 auctions or somewhere near Christmas to achieve the exchange rate goal that conquers inflation. Now it could move faster but definitely not slower IMO.

Its really just conjecture on my part however I just thought that since the CBI is taking this route and that their goal is to put inflation in check this may be a way to measure the progress. Any thoughts?

Nov 19, 2006 9:22 pm US/Eastern

Anti-War Activists Plan 'Global Orgasm For Peace'
(CBS/AP) SAN FRANCISCO Two peace activists have planned a massive anti-war demonstration for the first day of winter.

But they don't want you marching in the streets. They'd much rather you just stay home.

The Global Orgasm for Peace was conceived by Donna Sheehan, 76, and Paul Reffell, 55, whose immodest goal is for everyone in the world to have an orgasm Dec. 22 while focusing on world peace.

"The orgasm gives out an incredible feeling of peace during it and after it," Reffell said Sunday. "Your mind is like a blank. It's like a meditative state. And mass meditations have been shown to make a change."

The couple are no strangers to sex and social activism. Sheehan, no relation to anti-war activist Cindy Sheehan, brought together nearly 50 women in 2002 who stripped naked and spelled out the word "Peace."

The stunt spawned a mini-movement called Baring Witness that led to similar unclothed demonstrations worldwide.

The couple have studied evolutionary psychology and believe that war is mainly an outgrowth of men trying to impress potential mates, a case of "my missile is bigger than your missile," as Reffell put it.

By promoting what they hope to be a synchronized global orgasm, they hope to get people to channel their sexual energy into something more positive.

The couple said interest appears strong, with 26,000 hits a day to their Web site, Global Orgasm - December 22nd, 2006 - Peace through Global Ecstasy.

"The dream is to have everyone in the world (take part)," Reffell said. "And if that means laying down your gun for a few
minutes, then hey, all the better."

(© 2006 CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.)

wcbstv.com - Anti-War Activists Plan 'Global Orgasm For Peace'

(well, its one way to get piece,, errr, peace!)

This is where Bush is called on by Jaaafari to implement a Marshall plan for Iraq. Jaffari also called on the International community for assistance and this led to the International compact.

MOSAIC: World News from the Middle East June 24, 2005 - Google Video

More proof of the Marshall Plan in first 5 min of video.

Originally Posted by Ranger III

You may be right, but the fundamental question is whether Maliki's delay
in causing the revaluation will lead to the very radical take-over that you
fear before revaluation ever occurs?

Stated in reverse, can't Maliki's action now in effecting an r/v stave off and
ultimately prevent that which you fear?

I'm inclined to go with the latter scenario and suggest to Iraq's leaders that
the absolute best defense against radicalism, unemployment, religious and
political unrest and general instability is a bustling, vibrant economy?

Exxon/Mobil's net income is purring along at a rate of approximately $40 billion
per year, and its shareholders are not happy about the obscene amount of cash it is stockpiling. What better way to put that cash to work than in
the country having the greatest potential for oil development in the world?

Yes, I mentioned that if Maliki had an ephiphany or some other major event to occur in his life and began immediately to get things done, then the r/v could and should take place asap. Question is: Is Maliki up to it? If so he better get a move on!!!

worf

Originally Posted by jedi17

went to Scotia Bank...ordered 125,000 IQD, and it cost me 110.00 CDN. pick it up in 24-48 hrs.

I just called chase bank in Elkhart IN where i normally pick mine up, explained to the gal who usually handles it for me there is a rumor that chase has stopped selling the dinar..she said just one min looked it up on her computer and said yes we are still selling it.. so it seams we cans till get it from some branches.

Originally Posted by shotgunsusie

وكالة الأنباء الكويتية (كونا)- صÙ�Ø*Ø© الخبر - العراق يطالب الاتØ*اد الاوربي باسقاط باقي الديون ال...20/11/2006

SGS- Do you think that this was one of the reval delays, because this part of the Iraqi debt was still out there and they were waiting for this meeting to clean it up?

Thanks
Mike

Originally Posted by neno

As he said above. Not to judge your post at all, Original Spiderman but, it is all under way, the change will go alot quicker in these modern days. Remember it is accient Babylon. It will be the Riches Part of the World. It is Written, It shall be done.

NENO, I have heard this, and heard this, and heard this. I am a believer in "end time prophecy" but have not been able to locate this fact with chronological reference in my own "reference book" to date. Could you please give me scripture and verse?? It would be greatly appreciated!! No link...just scripture and verse. Thanks!! PM me if you must as I know this is not the religion thread.

During my studies into FOREX and share dealing, I came across this article which helps to explain the way that a countries Central bank can mess about with the economy.

Bit of a long read, but worth it.


There is an intrinsic interest rate in any market that matches demand for credit with savings. This equilibrium rate fluctuates in a fairly narrow band as demand for credit may increase with major projects; and supply of savings may vary with the attraction of alternatives, such as other investment or increased consumption.


Matching Demand and SupplyAt low interest rates there are lots of borrowers but few investors. At high interest rates there are lots of investors but few borrowers. The equilibrium interest rate is that middle rate at which supply and demand are equal.

So why does the central bank move rates outside this range?

Economic Cycles

There have always been economic cycles. Prior to the industrial revolution and the advent of central banks there were three major causes:

• crop failure, through droughts, floods, pests and other natural disasters;
• plague which impacted directly on the human population and on productivity; and
• good, old-fashioned war; with lots of cannons, cavalry charges and dead peasants.

More recently, central banks have attempted to alleviate some of the symptoms of these natural disasters but with limited success. Economies are now dominated by interest rate cycles and, in some parts of the world where central banks may lack the usual restraint, by currency crises.

Why Central Banks meddle with interest rates

Central banks are often subjected to huge pressure through the media to maintain low interest rates; from politicians, banks, economists, business and other interest groups. If the economy is flat, economic collapse is predicted and calls for the central bank to reduce interest rates dominate the media. During a boom, if the central bank considers a rate hike, we face constant warnings of imminent financial disaster.
How should the bank respond?
The primary function of the central bank is to protect the value of the nation's currency. If inflation rises, the bank raises interest rates to cool demand. The effect is a triple whammy:

• higher rates charged on existing debt means that consumers have less money to spend elsewhere;
• consumers also defer purchases of durables because of higher finance charges;
• corporate sales and earnings suffer as a consequence; and, in addition,
• corporate earnings are reduced by the increased cost of corporate debt.

If the central bank wants to stimulate the economy (while not its primary objective, huge political pressure may be applied through the media) it will lower interest rates. If anything, the effect of an interest rate reduction is even more pronounced:

• lower finance charges mean that consumers have more money to spend;
• purchases of durables increase as they attract lower finance costs;
• corporate sales and earnings rise;
• investment increases as feasibilities are prepared with increased sales and lower financing costs;
• stock prices rise as earnings increase;
• investors are encouraged and invest more money in the markets, much of it borrowed at low interest rates;
• this, in turn, fuels further price rises and further speculation.

The Political Pay-off

Reactions to increases and decreases in interest rates are not immediate; consumers and investors take time to change their mindset. The effect of a rate change may only be fully felt more than 12 months after it occurs. Banks, for instance, normally only notice an increase in failures 12 to 18 months after rates have increased.
Politicians love this. They can boost the economy before an election and the side-effects won't appear until a year or two later. Unfortunately, the central bank then has to stand on the brakes to rectify the problem. This is known as the four-year presidential cycle: boom before the elections and bust a year or two later.

The Tax System

Further distortions are created by income taxes that encourage consumers to borrow.
Negative gearing enables taxpayers to write off the finance costs for purchase of appreciating investments (such as property or equity) against their current income. Capital gains from the appreciating assets are only taxed later and normally at advantageously lower rates. Who wouldn't borrow money at low interest rates to buy assets that are likely to appreciate because of inflation (which is fuelled by low interest rates in the first place)? Especially when portion of the finance costs can be recovered from current income.
Some economies such as the US go further, allowing taxpayers to deduct interest paid on their home mortgage from their income. This further fuels demand for residential property over other forms of investment, and distorts the overall market.
Public perceptions: dangerous lags

If inflation is apparent for any length of time, the public learns to adjust for it:

• wage demands are linked to inflation;
• property rentals escalate with inflation;
• costs of general goods and services rise as supply costs increase;
• investment patterns alter to protect against erosion of capital.

When inflation is entrenched it is very difficult to get rid of. Changing public perceptions is no easy task and the central bank may need to take fairly drastic steps, over a considerable period of time, to cure the economy of this malaise.

I take the above as positive as we can already see some of the above taking place in Iraq, and I really believe we are onto a great thing with the IQD.

Investor

Originally Posted by wciappetta

I am reposting this because I fear I did not make my point clear and I do value the input of the folks here. mind you I'm not saying its factual just interesting.

I had a thought and I'm going to bounce it on the forum and see what you folks think.

My thought is the RV is coming after inflation is overcome by exchange rate adjustment.

How about using the inflation rate as our “Yard stick”? Some reports have it at 50% others say 76% per annum so for this exercise lets choose the higher rate. This figure would work out to 6.33 percent. Would it be safe to conclude a 6-7 percent adjustment in the rate to overcome inflation?

Figuring 7 percent this would translate to 103.32 dinars on the rate.

The figure is based on the weekly report on IRAQ by the state department dated Nov 15th page 19 [Thanks TX. TEA] I started at a Sept rate of 1476 ID We are currently at 1449 or a movement of 27 points. This leaves perhaps 76.32 points of movement until inflation is in check. If the recent movement is any indication of the rate of adjustment then we have watched a 2-3 dinar average daily adjustment. At two a day the number of required auctions would be 38 but I'm leaning closer to 2.5-3 Figuring three 3 would require about 25 auctions or somewhere near Christmas to achieve the exchange rate goal that conquers inflation. Now it could move faster but definitely not slower IMO.

Its really just conjecture on my part however I just thought that since the CBI is taking this route and that their goal is to put inflation in check this may be a way to measure the progress. Any thoughts?

If you take your 103.32 from the 1470 average rate during the year, you get 1366.68. That is mighty close to the stated objective of the cbi to raise the value of the dinar to by the end of the year ( I think they said 1365 ). But if they don't change it all at once, then the inflation monster coninues to erode the iraqi's spending power. (Spreading it out over a month actually puts them behind slightly).

But is that really enough to stem inflation? I don't think so. Why? Because even at the improved rate of 1366, imported items are still going to be priced out of reach for the average Iraqi. IMO they need to r/v to at least 1 dinar = .30 us to begin to get a handle on it. Why?

Because with even that rate imported items are still 3x as expensive as other countries pay for them. ie Big Mac costs 2.00 us, costs 6.00 Iraqi dinars. At that rate at least things are beginning to get reachable/affordable to the average Iraqi. Also some of the neighborhood ie Saudia Arabia, Iran, Isreal, Turkey, etc. have their currencies in the .20 -.30 range so in r/ving to that amount at least to start, then that should knock out much of the black market and should keep most comodities meant for Iraqis in Iraq.

If they only raised the value to 1366 ID = 1 usd, then they aren't addressing the black market, their comodities continue to be smuggled out of country for profit, supplies dry up, demand stays the same or increases which causes shortages, which cause prices to go up, which causes inflation to continue etc., etc., etc. IMO

worf

By Susan Rush
November 20, 2006
NEWS@2 DIRECT

Redline Communications landed a deal to bring a WiMAX network to Iraq. IraqTel plans to use Redline's RedMAX products to power the network. Terms of the agreement were not disclosed.

IraqTel, a telecom subsidiary of Al Emaar Holding Group, says the deployment represents the first WiMAX network in Iraq. IraqTel will deliver advanced voice and broadband services over the Redline network.

The company will begin its deployment in Basrah, with plans to expand the WiMAX network across additional regions in Iraq.

It has been a busy month for Redline. The company recently teamed with I-Systems to launch a wireless broadband service in Lake Llanquihue, Chile. The service, which targets business users, is powered by Redline's AN-50e, part of the RedConnex line of broadband wireless infrastructure products. I-Systems installed the AN-50e network to establish the high-speed wireless connections over distances ranging from 12 km. to 32 km. in the Lake Llanquihue region.

At the beginning of November, the company also introduced the AN-80i as part of its RedConnex line. The RedConnex AN-80i is a carrier-class broadband wireless solution that delivers connection speeds up to 108 Mbps, and operates in the license-exempt 5.4 GHz and 5.8 GHz frequency bands. The solution supports voice, video and data services, and is designed for point-to-point and point-to-multipoint applications, the company says.

Redline Lands WiMAX Contract in Iraq - 11/20/2006 10:37:00 AM - Wireless Week - CA6393566