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28-11-2006, 09:12 PM #27801
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Last edited by hightide3016; 28-11-2006 at 09:17 PM.
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28-11-2006, 09:13 PM #27802
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Weighing up risks in Iran and Iraq
Jon Hemming
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
Hungry for oil and gas, China may take on political risks in Iran and security risks in Iraq to get a foothold where Western firms fear to tread.
Iran and Iraq together have 19 percent of global oil reserves and some of the world's biggest undeveloped fields. China already gets almost half its oil imports from the Middle East, giving it a strong strategic incentive to secure big oil-field deals in the two regional neighbors.
In Iran, mainland firms are "operating in an environment where there aren't a full range of competitors. They have the opportunity to get involved in super giant oil fields," said Ian Brown, head of the Middle East research team at Wood Mackenzie. "In Iraq, whenever the time is ripe, it will be everyone and his dog competing and the chances of having a major share will be far less."
Iran is heavily reliant on oil, which represents about 80 to 90 percent of its export earnings. But its aged and declining oil fields mean it needs increased investment just to keep output at the present level of around four million barrels a day.
So Iran needs access to foreign money and technology, but US laws prohibit American firms from investing in the Islamic Republic. Washington can impose penalties on firms from other countries investing more than US$20 million (HK$156 million) a year in oil and gas.
Contract disputes, delays, bureaucratic and political meddling, infrastructure problems and concessions oil firms say are unattractive have reduced foreign investment to a trickle.
The problem in Iraq is perhaps more intractable - the daily toll of bombings, sectarian clashes and spiraling violence. But Iraq has the third- largest reserves in the world and only 10 percent of the country has been explored for oil.
Dozens of foreign oil companies have signed memoranda of understanding with Iraq, seen as a way of initiating relations with the new Baghdad government that could develop into real deals if and when stability is achieved.
But between April 2003 and June 2006, there were an estimated 315 attacks on Iraq's energy infrastructure and few foreign oil firms have started work on the ground.
To escape its bind, Iran has dangled the prospect of huge energy deals with China, which may be willing to accept less lucrative deals to attain energy security and which traditionally does not link investment with politics.
For Iran, such deals might also help dissuade China from backing sanctions against Teheran over its nuclear program.
While UN Security Council negotiations over Iran sanctions drag on, so do Teheran's talks with China's Sinopec (0386) over its Yadavaran oil field, a rich prize which could be worth as much as US$100 billion.
What is given may also be taken away. "If China agrees with sanctions on Iran, not only the government of the Islamic Republic, but also the people of Iran, would consider China an enemy of Iran and this may affect its political and economic cooperation," wrote Hossein Shariatmadari, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader.
China has yet to nail its colors to the mast as the United States pushes for a tougher sanctions draft against Iran and Russia argues for the European text to be watered down.
Before the 2003 Iraq war, China had agreed a US$700-million deal with Saddam Hussein's government to develop the Ahdab oil field. Now that contract is being renegotiated and the new Iraqi government is keen on a deal. "Their contacts with Iraq never stopped," said a senior Iraqi Oil Ministry official. "They are the most active firms of all. They are on the ground with us and ready to offer all kinds of help to develop the oil sector."
REUTERS
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28-11-2006, 09:16 PM #27803
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Zubaidi:Monetary value of the Iraqi dinar must revert to the previous level, or at least to acceptable levels as it is in the Iraqi neighboring states.
Shabibi:The bank wants as a means to affect the economic and monetary policy by making the dinar a valuable and powerful.
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28-11-2006, 09:20 PM #27804
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28-11-2006, 09:23 PM #27805
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Can't get into it....I get this message...
Sorry. The administrator has banned your IP address. To contact the administrator click here
And I've clicked and clicked and clicked! Even e-mailed them, they don't even have enough class to reply. I thought I was banned because of posting paynes1 info on the Marshall Plan, but SGS said she was banned because she hadn't posted in awhile. Well I stopped posting also, so I could've been banned for that. Who knows? They never bothered to tell me why. How rude!
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28-11-2006, 09:24 PM #27806
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28-11-2006, 09:25 PM #27807
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28-11-2006, 09:25 PM #27808
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28-11-2006, 09:31 PM #27809
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28-11-2006, 09:32 PM #27810
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Zubaidi:Monetary value of the Iraqi dinar must revert to the previous level, or at least to acceptable levels as it is in the Iraqi neighboring states.
Shabibi:The bank wants as a means to affect the economic and monetary policy by making the dinar a valuable and powerful.
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