Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Originally Posted by IITB

Hello all,
It's very seldom that I post without a tongue in cheek overtone,
As,life is way too short to take ones self too seriously.
That being said, we have all of the facts right in front of us, the value of our investment is growing by the day.
remember you have to learn to crawl before you can run.
Fact : the CBI said it's intent was to have the IQD ratio 1345.0 =1 USD by the end of the last fiscal quarter of 2006.
It is well on its way.
move the decimal point thrice and there you have it.
$ 1.34 USD.
The Kurds have taken the lead , the rest of the reigon must follow .
R/V by 12/15/2006.
I know that someone will ask me for a link so here it is ......http://www.thebleedingobvious.duhhh

Remember to try the veal ,and tip the help,, I'll be here all week..Thank you !!!

I thought the 1345 was a target projection by the IMF- don't think the CBI ever stated this was their goal,

Originally Posted by clueless

from the link previously posted

here is some of the content of table 4.

(In billions of Iraqi dinars) 2006 Actual Max.
=======================================
Reserve money ---------------------------- 14,926
Currency outside banks -------------------- 09,621
Currency issued --------------------------- 10,881
less cash in vaults of commercial banks ----- 01,260
Banks reserves ---------------------------- 04,044
Required ---------------------------------- 03,251
Excess ------------------------------------ 00,793

Currency in circulation / reserve money (in percent) 64.5

( my observation is that 9,621 / 14,926 = .6445799 or approx 64.5%
and so I believe that, according to this IMF report (dated August 06),
"currency outside banks" = "currency in circulation" = 9.621 trillion dinar )

Hi clueless...I was basing my calculations on the Jan '04 figures and against the 1st 1/4 of '06 figures and arrived at my conclusion. So somewhere between Jan '04 and April '06 the circulation figures had to have SOARED to reach the Table 4 figures. Don't mind admitting I'm wrong (LOL been there, done that many times). But I was questioning myself by placing....Right? after my calculations. But boy that was a BIG jump in circulation.

Cheers!
DayDream

I wonder what this is about???

Posted on Saturday, December 02 @ 07:19:17 PST
Topic: Kurdistan
The government of Turkey has blocked all of the Kurdish airless access to its air space flying into Kurdistan as of today. All of the Kurdish airlines been declined access to Kurdistan.

According to Zozik air, all flights will be back to normal starting next week.
If you have family or relatives flying to Kurdistan, contact the Kurdish airlines for more informati

Sorry but this is the same math mistake that has been made so often when talking about the 1470 to $1.47 relationship. You not only moved the decimal point but you also switched the units.

Moving the decimal point only would give us 1.345 IQD = 1 USD or 1 IQD = $0.74

Originally Posted by IITB

<SNIP> the IQD ratio 1345.0 =1 USD by the end of the last fiscal quarter of 2006.
It is well on its way.
move the decimal point thrice and there you have it.
$ 1.34 USD. <SNIP>

Originally Posted by clueless

from the link previously posted

here is some of the content of table 4.

(In billions of Iraqi dinars) 2006 Actual Max.
=======================================
Reserve money ---------------------------- 14,926
Currency outside banks -------------------- 09,621
Currency issued --------------------------- 10,881
less cash in vaults of commercial banks ----- 01,260
Banks reserves ---------------------------- 04,044
Required ---------------------------------- 03,251
Excess ------------------------------------ 00,793

Currency in circulation / reserve money (in percent) 64.5

( my observation is that 9,621 / 14,926 = .6445799 or approx 64.5%
and so I believe that, according to this IMF report (dated August 06),
"currency outside banks" = "currency in circulation" = 9.621 trillion dinar )

Thank you very much for your post. I have read similar numbers other places, so, this is a good case for total currency in circulation being around 9.6 trillion. If in fact they have removed 1.2 Trillion dinar out of the economy, this represents about 12.5 % decrease in the base money supply. A monumental amount. Since currency (each dollar) in the US circulates between 5 and 9 nines before it is retired, then the amount of dinar removed will have much more of an impact throughout the economy over a period of time. Ultimately, the price of a currency is based on laws of supply and demand. Again, this removal within a short period of time was dramatic, if not in a panic mode to control inflation, and maybe, just maybe to remove excess currency prior to an RV. Next week will exciting. Thank You.

Originally Posted by DayDream

Hi clueless...I was basing my calculations on the Jan '04 figures and against the 1st 1/4 of '06 figures and arrived at my conclusion. So somewhere between Jan '04 and April '06 the circulation figures had to have SOARED to reach the Table 4 figures. Don't mind admitting I'm wrong (LOL been there, done that many times). But I was questioning myself by placing....Right? after my calculations. But boy that was a BIG jump in circulation.

Cheers!
DayDream

Hey DD,

Sure no offense intended. I really appreciated the info and link. I am guessing that the figures you were looking at are something other than dinar in circulation but I will have to go back and read more to see for sure. Here are the numbers for previous years from table 4.

-------------------------------------------- act --- SBA
------------------------- 2003 --- 2004 --- 2005 --- 2005 --- 2006
Currency outside banks -- 2,606 -- 7,163 -- 9,110 --- 8,815 -- 9,621

Kermanshah hosts 4th Int'l Exhibition on Iraq's Market Strategy
Kermanshah, Dec 2, IRNA
Iran-Iraq-Market
The Fourth International Exhibition on Iraq's Market Strategy was inaugurated in Kermanshah's Permanent International Fairground on Saturday afternoon.

The exhibition, attended by governor generals from Kermanshah, Karbala and Hillah, is being held with an aim of developing export to Iraq.

Some 150 Iranian companies are participating in the event to showcase their products in the fields of oil and gas, petrochemical and chemical industries, steel, agriculture, construction materials, foodstuffs, textile, and chinaware in 250 pavilions.

Managing director of Kermanshah International Fair Company Mahmoud Bahrami said that the exhibition, which is being held in an area of 5,500 square meters, is aimed at displaying Iran's capabilities in the reconstruction of Iraq.

The products which are featured in the exhibition, are not for sale, he added, noting that Iraqi businessmen, traders and specialists as well as people of the province will merely visit different sections of the exhibition.

Iran has invited some 200 Iraqi merchants to view its abilities in this respect, he said, adding that the governor generals of Iraq's Karbala and Hillah provinces are heading high-ranking delegations to pay visits to the exhibition.

He stipulated that some 200 traders from various Iraqi provinces active in border markets will visit the fair tomorrow.

Iran has established an international trade center in the exhibition to provide official services for businessmen in concluding contracts, which are also translated into Kurdish and Arabic languages, he added.

The exhibition will continue until Tuesday December 5.

Originally Posted by kiko

What delay?

In my opinion the Investment Law is passed by Parliament on 10 october 2006 and ratified by the President on 30 november.

We only have to wait that they make it official and enact it.

Correct!

New law aims to open Iraqi economy to foreign investors

On Oct. 10 the Parliament of Iraq passed a new investment law which opens the Iraqi economy to investors globally.

New law aims to open Iraqi economy to foreign investors | Iraq Updates

Seventeen days later after the Iraqi Parliament passed the FIL we have the Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in Baghdad Saying the following about the:

Economy, rights, education
The first track is that of improving the Iraqi economy, easing the brunt of poverty inherited from the former regime, and providing public services after the destruction of the infrastructure. Praised be God, there is large improvement in the economy and per capita income and in the level of services that are rendered daily in the various governorates. Also there is improvement in the fields of investment and economy and a rise in the level of income. Hundreds of thousands of jobless people have been employed. This is something which must be taken into consideration. I confidently say, based on accurate figures, that hundreds of thousands of people were absorbed in state institutions in the various domains. These include the educational and industrial sectors. Tens of thousands of people who were dismissed for political reasons during the former regime have been reinstated.
"It also pleases me to talk about the strength of the state in entrenching principles of human rights and developing the educational sectors and higher education. It improved performance in these areas after having inherited ruined schools and universities. Praised be God, our universities have now started to recover and our schools have started to regain their status. Determination is still strong. The state will allocate a large explosive budget next year for all sectors. The budget will for the first time come close to 40bn dollars from 19bn dollars in the first year.

"In order to develop the economic and investment sectors, the government has succeeded in enacting an investment law, which was approved by the Council of Representatives. The Iraqi scene is now open for all national and foreign capital to invest and participate in improving the economic life, creating work opportunities and improving economic performance. There is room for investment in all industrial, agricultural, oil, housing and trade sectors. This gives the Iraqi economy strength and bases it on stronger foundations. It also gives us a chance to move forward towards investment in major projects that will be accomplished this year like the great port of Iraq, airports and large housing complexes. The government has made up its mind to do this and we have instructed the official quarters in the state to allocate a piece of land to every citizen who loses his land and needs to build a house. The real estate banks have also been instructed to provide the citizens with the necessary loans to build houses. The government will pay part of these loans in the form of grants and gifts. The government is also planning to build residential complexes in all governorates and districts to ease the crisis from which the inhabitants are suffering due to the dense population

Iraqi PM says no deadline for US pullout, rejects militias at news conference | Iraq Updates

The Iraqi constitution:

Article 73:
The President of the Republic shall assume the following powers:

First:

To issue a special pardon on the recommendation of the Prime Minister, except for anything concerning a private claim and for those who have been convicted of committing international crimes, terrorism, or financial and administrative corruption.

Second:

To ratify international treaties and agreements after the approval by the
Council of Representatives. Such international treaties and agreements are
considered ratified after fifteen days from the date of receipt by the President.

Third:

To ratify and issue the laws enacted by the Council of Representatives. Such laws are considered ratified after fifteen days from the date of receipt by the President.

The President of Iraq most likely received the FIL around the 10 or the 11 of October according to the above article (11345). 15 to 17 days later for some unknown reason the PM is saying: “the government has succeeded in enacting an investment law”. The constitutional time frame of fifteen days was met, why they did not ratified the FIL by publishing it on an official gazette before now remains to be seen IMO.

Originally Posted by Wm.Knowles

Thank you very much for your post. I have read similar numbers other places, so, this is a good case for total currency in circulation being around 9.6 trillion. If in fact they have removed 1.2 Trillion dinar out of the economy, this represents about 12.5 % decrease in the base money supply. A monumental amount. Since currency (each dollar) in the US circulates between 5 and 9 nines before it is retired, then the amount of dinar removed will have much more of an impact throughout the economy over a period of time. Ultimately, the price of a currency is based on laws of supply and demand. Again, this removal within a short period of time was dramatic, if not in a panic mode to control inflation, and maybe, just maybe to remove excess currency prior to an RV. Next week will exciting. Thank You.

Still wondering when and if the tightening of the amount in circulation willl affect the supply here in the US.. Ordered 4M from Chase yesterday with no problem..

Randy

Originally Posted by clueless

Hey DD,

Sure no offense intended. I really appreciated the info and link. I am guessing that the figures you were looking at are something other than dinar in circulation but I will have to go back and read more to see for sure. Here are the numbers for previous years from table 4.

-------------------------------------------- act --- SBA
------------------------- 2003 --- 2004 --- 2005 --- 2005 --- 2006
Currency outside banks -- 2,606 -- 7,163 -- 9,110 --- 8,815 -- 9,621

You are very right. There was a large jump in circulation. And the cause of that was/is an artificially low exchange rate. They simply sold the undervalued dinar to low for to long a period of time. This DID increase their currency reserves, but now they are having to cope with too large of a base money supply. Luckily, they now have oil money and a healthy currency reserve (around 12Billion and Gold?) to make the necessary adjustment. Have a good weekend to all.