Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Economic : the Iraqi dinar rise in the Saudi market

Translated version of http://www.alsabaah.com/

Baghdad agency :
ارتفع سعر صرف الدينار العراقي أمام الريال في السوق السعودي بنسبة 11 % أمس الاربعاء 2-2-2005 كانعكاس للتحسن الذي طرأ على سعر العملة العراقية أمام الدولار الأميركي بعد الانتخابات العراقية التي جرت يوم الاحد الماضي.The exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the Saudi riyal, in the market by 11% yesterday, Wednesday, 2 - 2-2005, a reflection of the improvement in the rate of the Iraqi currency to the American dollar after the Iraqi elections held last Sunday.


وأدى التفاؤل الحذر بمستقبل الأوضاع في العراق على ضوء نتائج الانتخابات إلى ارتفاع سعر صرف المليون دينار عراقي إلى 3000 ريال (الدولار يعادل 3.75 ريال)، مقابل 2700 ريال للمليون دينار نهاية الأسبوع الماضي.The cautious optimism the future of the situation in Iraq in light of the results of the elections to the high exchange rate of one million Iraqi dinars to 3000 riyals (dollar equivalent of 3.75 riyals) compared to 2700 riyals to one million dinars late last week.
وقالت جريدة "الشرق الأوسط" اللندنية اليوم إن هذا الارتفاع وضع المضاربين أمام خيارات صعبة بسبب عدم وضوح الرؤية بشأن مستقبل العملة العراقية, مشيرة الى وجود مخاوف كون الدينار تم إصداره بدون أي مسوغ قانوني ودون الرجوع إلى نظام مالي رسمي مصادق عليه.She said "Ash-Sharq Al-Awsat" newspaper today that this rise speculators to a difficult choices because of the absence of a clear vision on the future of the Iraqi currency, pointing to the existence of fears that the dinar was issued without any legal justification and without referring to the formal financial system validated.
ومن جانبه, قال المحلل الاقتصادي الدكتور ياسين الجفري إن الحكومة العراقية لن تستطيع أن تتبرأ من الدينار العراقي الجديد في أي حال من الأحوال, وتوقع المزيد من الصعود في الفترة المقبلة، مشددا على أن الفترة الحالية لا تعتبر مناسبة لبيع الدينار، بل فترة دخول لشرائه خاصة أن كل المؤشرات المتوفرة حاليا تبشر بمستقبل أفضل لهذه العملة.For his part, he said economic analyst Dr. Yaseen Al-Jafari that the Iraqi government would not be able to dissociate itself from the new Iraqi dinar in any case, and the expectation of further rise in the coming period. stressing that the current period is not deemed suitable for the sale of the dinar, but the entry of the purchase especially since all the indicators currently available, promising a better future for the currency.
من ناحية أخرى, قال مركز بخيت للاستشارات المالية إن السعر الحالي للدينار يعتبر فرصة ذهبية للمضاربين الذين جمدوا أموالهم في المضاربة على الدينار لبيع ما في حوزتهم من عملة عراقية بالسعر المرتفع لجني الأرباح خاصة انه لا يمكن ضمان استمرار موجة الارتفاع.On the other hand, Center said Bakheet Financial Consulting that the current price of the dinar is a golden opportunity for speculators who froze their money in speculation in the dinar for sale in the possession of Iraqi currency high price to profit-taking, especially that it could not ensure the continued surge.
وقدر مركز بخيت حجم تداولات العملة العراقية في سوق السعودية بما يقارب نصف مليار دينار يوميا، وأن 70 % منها تتركز في المناطق السعودية الشمالية، والشمالية الشرقية القريبة من العراق والأردن والكويت.And as far as the volume of transactions related Bakhit Iraqi currency in the market of Saudi Arabia, including nearly half a billion dinars a day, and 70% of them are concentrated in the northern regions Saudi Arabia, and near the north-eastern Iraq, Jordan and Kuwait.
وأضاف أن نجاح الانتخابات العراقية سيكون له اثر بالغ على سعر صرف الدينار يتمثل في استقراره عند معدلاته المرتفعة الحالية على اقل تقدير لكن إذا حدث ما لا يتمناه الجميع فستتردى العملة العراقية مرة أخرى.He added that the success of the Iraqi elections will have a profound impact on the exchange rate of the dinar is stable at its current high, at the very least, but if not for all of Vstterdi Iraqi currency again. ????What does that mean?
يشار إلى أن الدينار العراقي الجديد الذي تم إصداره أثناء فترة الحاكم المدني للعراق بول بريمر، يطلق عليه في السوق السوداء اسم "دينار بريمر"، فيما كان يطلق اسم "دينار صدام" على العملة التي سبقته.It should be noted that the new Iraqi dinar which was issued during the civil administrator of Iraq Paul Bremer. call it the black market in the name of "Bremer dinar" while he was called the name of "Saddam dinars" that preceded the currency.

وكان قد بدأ التعامل بالدينار العراقي في سوق الصرف السعودية في الربع الأخير من عام 2003، وكان سعر المليون دينار يعادل خمسة آلاف ريال لكنه سرعان ما تردى أمام الريال السعودي بعد تردي الحالة الأمنية في العراق.He had started dealing in Iraqi dinars exchange market at Saudi Arabia in the last quarter of 2003, The price of one million dinars, the equivalent of five thousand riyals, but quickly deteriorated to the Saudi riyal, after the deterioration of the security situation in Iraq.


SORRY, OLD ARTICLE - 2005

Good level headed thinking Jola.

You are correct, we sometimes need to step back and look at the bigger picture.

Goooooooooooooood Morning RolClub

The price of the dinar to the dollar came down another three points from 1433 to 1430 and another $4,570,000 worth of dinar (6.535,100,000) came out of circulation with only 7 banks participating. That puts our grand total of dinars withdrawn from circulation as of the 19th auction since the CBI embarked on this dinar reduction campaign to: 1,076,901,950,000.
We'll have to see if the CBI tells us whether or not if they know of any monies being exchanged at the local money bazaar in the streets. Since this reduction started we have come down 40 points from 1470 to 1430 on the official exchange rate. That is a 2.72% reduction in the exchange rate. This whole thing started on or about the 1st of November. We are now 34 days into the CBI's reval plan.

Originally Posted by Jola

I have been reading all these posts back and something threw me off: how come that we still discuss what is going on with the CBI auctions , when THEY TOLD US?!

What they told us is:

- we fight inflation - so we will do it by raising the dinar value with every bank auction by 2 points - have you noticed that even when there in no one participating, they still raised it?
The auctions are worthless. With or without, the bank is raising the exchange rate by 2 points anyways. So they are not real auctions anyways in my opinion. And the numbers are pre-calculated - I would say - that much in, that much out...

- we fight inflation by raising interest rates ( 14, 16%, blah, blah)

That's cool, they are supposed to do this - as many of you have said these are the bank's tools to lower the inflation rate...and they are in the book...

Now, the question that showed up is " is this the only thing that they do by running these auctions and pulling dinar out of market"?

Some of you said: it looks like that! (see the new article that showed up today with Shabibi's remarks).

However, we forget the previous articles that say - I would say at least one article in five - that " the dinar should/will become the currency of choice of iraqis people (over the dollar)".

If all this was ONLY about inflation, these comments/statements regarding the value of the dinar compared to the dollar would have not been made, I believe.

When phrases as " we want to raise the value of iraqi currency" and " iraqi dinar shall be the currency of choice" show up together, THAT IS A STATEMENT THAT CAN NOT BE IGNORED. On top of that, while a low reval is still a possibility, in my math 0.14 or .04 is not equal or bigger than $1, is it? The currency " of choice" would be still the dollar.

...however, the " dinar will be the currency of choice" comes from Shabibi and it has been published in more than one newspaper, in more than one article.

Okay, I guess this is what I wanted to say.

I think Dinar Excited previously made a presentation of why he believes the reval will happen before the 15th - so I won't repeat what he said...I totally agree with him.

Mr.WM said that removing that much dinars ( over 1 trillion) out of market indicates almost a "panic" measure - even if it is out of books. A " monumental move". I believe the next " monumental move" is the reval.

And the most recent indication: Post # #29225 by Susie ( here is the link to the article:
http://64.233.179.104/translate_c?hl...px%3Fid%3D2678

... 'The slight rise or decline of the dollar does not obstruct the growth or value of the dinar is expected to become Iraqi currency is stronger than before with the introduction of the balance of 2007 and the strategic application of the new monetary policy announced by the government last year'."

Combined with the previous statements, it is pretty clear to me that the Dec 15 is the end of our ride.

I would like to add: sometimes we are getting stuck with the small details and forget to step back and see the whole picture. While I believe this is it - just as I wrote here - of course, there is always a chance that things will not go this way. But I think you got my point...

Cheers.

Disclaimer: JMO

Neno, would you please add this as a permalink right under Twas the night before r/v. I find this post one of the most thought out renderings lately. Thank you.

I think the last time the ICI met was in early Nov. At that time they had set benchmarks for Iraq which were never listed, however, they did say something about six weeks, if they announce what those benchmarks are after the six week, well that would be mid December.....hmmm

Originally posted by Socata850:

Goooooooooooooood Morning RolClub

The price of the dinar to the dollar came down another three points from 1433 to 1430 and another $4,570,000 worth of dinar (6.535,100,000) came out of circulation with only 7 banks participating. That puts our grand total of dinars withdrawn from circulation as of the 19th auction since the CBI embarked on this dinar reduction campaign to: 1,076,901,950,000.
We'll have to see if the CBI tells us whether or not if they know of any monies being exchanged at the local money bazaar in the streets. Since this reduction started we have come down 40 points from 1470 to 1430 on the official exchange rate. That is a 2.72% reduction in the exchange rate. This whole thing started on or about the 1st of November. We are now 34 days into the CBI's reval plan.

Hey guys, don't sweat it. I'm expecting to see the dinar rate change in larger increments as the week goes on. Wouldn't be surprised to see the number of dinars per dollar dropping by 5 per auction by the end of the week and into next week till they make their target. It was 3 today, so lets see how it plays out. No worries. (Whistles) Don't worry...Be Happy.

Night.

Hey guys can somebody check this site for me, it won't come up again for me. Just wondering if on my end. Thanks.


http://www.ameinfo.com/cgi-bin/cms/page.cgi

Originally Posted by Jola

I have been reading all these posts back and something threw me off: how come that we still discuss what is going on with the CBI auctions , when THEY TOLD US?!

What they told us is:

- we fight inflation - so we will do it by raising the dinar value with every bank auction by 2 points - have you noticed that even when there in no one participating, they still raised it?
The auctions are worthless. With or without, the bank is raising the exchange rate by 2 points anyways. So they are not real auctions anyways in my opinion. And the numbers are pre-calculated - I would say - that much in, that much out...

- we fight inflation by raising interest rates ( 14, 16%, blah, blah)

That's cool, they are supposed to do this - as many of you have said these are the bank's tools to lower the inflation rate...and they are in the book...

Now, the question that showed up is " is this the only thing that they do by running these auctions and pulling dinar out of market"?

Some of you said: it looks like that! (see the new article that showed up today with Shabibi's remarks).

However, we forget the previous articles that say - I would say at least one article in five - that " the dinar should/will become the currency of choice of iraqis people (over the dollar)".

If all this was ONLY about inflation, these comments/statements regarding the value of the dinar compared to the dollar would have not been made, I believe.

When phrases as " we want to raise the value of iraqi currency" and " iraqi dinar shall be the currency of choice" show up together, THAT IS A STATEMENT THAT CAN NOT BE IGNORED. On top of that, while a low reval is still a possibility, in my math 0.14 or .04 is not equal or bigger than $1, is it? The currency " of choice" would be still the dollar.

...however, the " dinar will be the currency of choice" comes from Shabibi and it has been published in more than one newspaper, in more than one article.

Okay, I guess this is what I wanted to say.

I think Dinar Excited previously made a presentation of why he believes the reval will happen before the 15th - so I won't repeat what he said...I totally agree with him.

Mr.WM said that removing that much dinars ( over 1 trillion) out of market indicates almost a "panic" measure - even if it is out of books. A " monumental move". I believe the next " monumental move" is the reval.

And the most recent indication: Post # #29225 by Susie ( here is the link to the article:
http://64.233.179.104/translate_c?hl...px%3Fid%3D2678

... 'The slight rise or decline of the dollar does not obstruct the growth or value of the dinar is expected to become Iraqi currency is stronger than before with the introduction of the balance of 2007 and the strategic application of the new monetary policy announced by the government last year'."

Combined with the previous statements, it is pretty clear to me that the Dec 15 is the end of our ride.

I would like to add: sometimes we are getting stuck with the small details and forget to step back and see the whole picture. While I believe this is it - just as I wrote here - of course, there is always a chance that things will not go this way. But I think you got my point...

Cheers.

Disclaimer: JMO

Good post matey. Yes in theory they have to do this before the new fiscal year. They have no more outside funding and have to stand on their own feet, can they do this at 1430?! Yea right.

For what it's worth, I'd heard before the 15th from someone I highly respect. We'll see, also coincides with the end of the week, ie end of next week. Either way it's closer by the day.

Iraq issued a new investment law allowing foreign investors for the first time in more than 40 years the implementation of strategic projects and tax exemption for 10 years and get the capital and dividends and allow them to be circulated on the market, the country's securities and equity securities and opening accounts in Iraqi currency and foreign inside or outside Iraq for the project approved. .And for investors and workers in the investment projects of the non-Iraqis the right to subsistence and to facilitate their entry and exit to and from Iraq and prohibits the confiscation or nationalization of the project investment and allows the technical and administrative staff-Iraqis in the project to change their salaries and entitlements out of Iraq.


.The bill authorizes the Iraqi presidency, which sent a copy to the "Ilaf" today to foreign investors bring capital, which he introduced to Iraq, and proceeds allowed to be circulated on the Iraq market for securities listed equities and bonds and the composition of investment portfolios in stocks, bonds and lease the land necessary t the draft of a Almsatha or where the investment project based on not more than two fifths of 50 years, renewable for approval of the Commission and take into account in determining the term nature of the project and its usefulness to the national economy as well as insurance investment project by any insurance company or a foreign national is considered appropriate and open accounts Pal Iraqi or foreign currency, or both with one of the banks in Iraq or outside of the project metaphor.
.Successor and the new investment law passed by the House of Representatives after extensive discussions recently, referring to the presidency the old investment law, which the former regime, the Bill places restrictions on investment in the public sectors, and to prevent the establishment of projects Alsatratejeh by foreign investors. .The law prohibits foreign investors also implement projects in the sectors of oil, gas, electricity, telecommunications, maritime and air transport and land-General in contravention of the law, the new Aida to restrictions on investment in these sectors except investment in the fields of mining, oil and gas production and the banks and insurance companies.
ى .The new law guarantees the investor's recruitment and use of non-Iraqi workers and granting foreign investors and workers in the investment projects of the non-Iraqis the right to stay in Iraq and to facilitate entry and exit to and from Iraq and the lack of confiscation or nationalization of an investment project under the provisions of this Act or both part IISL the technical and administrative staff-Iraqis in the project to change their salaries and entitlements out of Iraq in accordance with the law after payment of debts and obligations towards the Iraqi government and all other quarters.
.The law also allowed for the project who leave Investment enjoy exemption from taxes and duties for 10 ten years from the date of commencement of commercial operation also enjoy the benefits of additional foreign investors in accordance with the international agreements between Iraq and their own or international multilateral conventions Iraq had joined them.

.The Act specifies the tasks of the national investment policy-making for investment and the development of controls and monitoring the implementation of controls and regulations in the field of investment and specific investment projects strategic outlook of the federal nature exclusively. .The enemies procuring approval by the Council of Ministers prior to the granting of leave if the value of an investment project of more than 250 million.
.The law aims to encourage investments and the transfer of modern technologies to contribute to the development of Iraq and develop and expand its manufacturing and service diversification and encourage the Iraqi private sector and foreign investment in Iraq through the provision of necessary facilities for the establishment of investment projects and strengthening the competitive capacity e-projects covered by the provisions of this law in the domestic and foreign markets. .The law also seeks to develop the human resources according to the needs of the market and creating job opportunities for Iraqis and the protection of human and property investors, export expansion and strengthening of the balance of payments and trade balance for Iraq.
.The National Authority will also develop a policy for investment overall national strategy for investment and identify the sectors most important and prepare the road investment projects in Iraq in light of the information obtained from the bodies of investment in the regions and provinces are also lists of investment opportunities in the investment projects Federal and strategic outlook with preliminary information on these projects and provide for those interested in investing.
مة .The law contains seven chapters in 36 articles distributed on : definitions and the National Authority for Investment and investment bodies in the regions and provinces, benefits and obligations of the investor guarantees and exemptions and procedures for the granting of leave and the establishment of investment projects and general provisions.
..The law refers to it proceeded to push the process of economic and social development, development and bring the technical and scientific expertise and human resources development, and create job opportunities for the Iraqis to encourage investments and support the process of establishing investment projects in Iraq and the expansion and development at various levels of economic and grants mother Tiazat and exemptions for these projects.


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Originally Posted by Socata 850

Goooooooooooooood Morning RolClub

The price of the dinar to the dollar came down another three points from 1433 to 1430 and another $4,570,000 worth of dinar (6.535,100,000) came out of circulation with only 7 banks participating. That puts our grand total of dinars withdrawn from circulation as of the 19th auction since the CBI embarked on this dinar reduction campaign to: 1,076,901,950,000.
We'll have to see if the CBI tells us whether or not if they know of any monies being exchanged at the local money bazaar in the streets. Since this reduction started we have come down 40 points from 1470 to 1430 on the official exchange rate. That is a 2.72% reduction in the exchange rate. This whole thing started on or about the 1st of November. We are now 34 days into the CBI's reval plan.

I have reposted what I wrote yesterday. I think these comments apply today, and could give us an idea of what to expect over the next couple of days. Its all good for us. I noticed that the rise in dinar is getting attention in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. Once I was told by an asute financial type that when the dinar rises 10%, there will be a world-wide feeding frenzy on the currency. I have always thought that he was right. A rise in value of a currency gives the people great feelings of confidence. This is harder to measure but just as important overall. So people will save and hesitate to get rid of their money, especialy when they think it will be more valuable. As I have said, we are still seeing a reduced supply along with an increasing demand. A classic situation for a rise in price.

From Yesterday:

Hello everyone. It seems like we continue to see a drying up of available dinar as if to sweep the economy in a "tidy-up" process. We see few banks participating and a slight improvement in the dinar rate of exchange. The Japanese have a saying, "must wrap roots before move tree". This seems to be their (CBI) position. An overall positioning of themselves for something different later on. A confirmation of a trend that first removed dinar from the economy, and then an sharp reversal where there seems to be little dinar left at these price levels. What we have seen is exactly what you would expect the CBI to do prior to an increase in the price of the currency. All very positve. With the amount of economic news, banks moving into iraq, other countries like japan, it would seem that few are concerned about the FIL at this point. So the numbers are all in our favor and I think we can expect to see similar auctions this week. But this trend cannot continue for long, just like what we said when they were removing the dinar. So this drying up is good, less dinar out there, and as this process continues expect banks, corporations, and larger speculators to get a "buy" signal and become much more interested and begin to buy. I wonder what the naysayers are saying over on the IIf. Since I don't go there anymore I wouldn't know (or care). Have a good day, life is good and things are continuing to look good for us. Thank You for your many kind comments.