Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Fed will raise rates twice starting March 2007 – bullish for dollar bearish for stocks
Joe Weinman
Dec. 8, 2006

The US Dollar is following the US Stock market with two-year delay. The effects of interest rates trickles down to dollar slowly while the stocks react very fast. The job data showed that the economy is in sound condition – at least according to official measures. The inflation is slightly above Fed’s goal. The lack of employment in correcting housing sector is compensated with business and financial services jobs.

Next year, there is more than 68% probability in a high confidence level that Fed will raise rates two times starting in March to cope up with inflation. Then they will pause again. That will be very bearish for stocks. Today’s stock market action in spite of great job data provides clues to what will happen in 2007. Any further rise in rates will; create a bear market in stocks. The dollar will rally very fast. The current low dollar will be the root cause of major slowdown in Asia and Euro Zone by 2007 March. As Fed will raise rate, ECB will stay put – even they make cut rates. The stocks in US and worldwide will suffer heavily.

The dollar will follow the two year lagged cycle of Dow. The dollar index can reach as high as 120 from current 83 by 2008-2009. The Dow will fall below 7000. Gold will retest the $400 an ounce. The oil will also trade down due to lack of worldwide demand in 2007-2009. US trade deficit, budget deficit and balance of payments will improve dramatically. Iraq will have a political solution.

IndiaDaily - Fed will raise rates twice starting March 2007 – bullish for dollar bearish for stocks

Originally Posted by CharmedPiper

Anybody got a woot for the trend I see here!!!!!WOOOOOOOOOOOOT!

Wall Street Journal (subscription), NY - 18 hours ago
AP. BAGHDAD, Iraq -- Iraq's dinar has risen to a nearly two-year high against the US dollar, as the nation's central bank tries to ..

ChronicleHerald.ca, Canada - 4 hours ago
BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) — Iraq’s dinar currency has risen to a nearly two-year high against the US dollar, as the nation’s central bank tries to fend off ...

Canadian Business, Canada - 18 hours ago
Iraq Central Bank Buys Up Currency to Fight Inflation; Dinar at 2-Year High Vs. Dollar. BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) - Iraq's dinar currency ...

FXstreet.com The Futures Market, Spain - 13 hours ago
On Thursday, the last day of the work week in Baghdad, the central bank led the way at its daily currency auction, which saw 25 million US dollars sold by ...

International Herald Tribune, France - Dec 7, 2006
AP. BAGHDAD, Iraq: Iraq's dinar currency has risen to a nearly two-year high against the US dollar, thanks to trading by the central ...

Houston Chronicle, United States - 19 hours ago
By THOMAS WAGNER AP Writer. © 2006 AP. BAGHDAD, Iraq — Iraq's dinar currency has risen to a nearly two-year high against the US ...

OK CP I only have ONE comment here:
YOU ARE KICKING TAIL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THANK YOU for a wonderful way to wake up this fine Saturday morning and read all the awesome news you have "un-earthed" So with that said if people don't start getting EXCITED then nothing will get them with the rest of us doing the:

FARMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
JIGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG

Dang this RIDE SURE IS A "BLAST"!!!!!!!!!!

Dec 14 is what I'm shooting for BECAUSE that is my hubby's first day of vacation and he REALLY needs something to go and do - Make one awesome Christmas for everybody!!! RV RV RV!!

Iran set conditions for talks with the United States on Iraq

(Voice of Iraq) - 09-12-2006
This issue was sent to a friend

Manama (Reuters) - The Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Muttaqi Saturday that Iran will be holding direct talks with the United States on Iraq in a state of the Washington Declaration plans to withdraw its troops from there.

A statement Muttaqi Commenting on the report of a study of Iraq by America recommended that the Washington deal with Iran and Syria directly on the situation in Iraq as a looming threat of violence turned into civil war.

Replying to a question on the direct talks between Iran and the United States Muttaqi said to reporters on the sidelines of a security conference in Bahrain, "the first and most important step. The announcement by the United States that it has decided to withdraw from Iraq. "

He added that if the United States of its intention to withdraw would be "Iran is ready to help the Administration to withdraw its troops from Iraq."

But he added that Iran "does not see such political will in the United States yet."

Washington, and holds Iran and Syria responsible for fueling the conflict in Iraq after nearly four years of the invasion to overthrow the United States-led former President Saddam Hussein.

The Foreign Minister alluded American counterpart, Condoleezza Rice, because Tehran might ask a price for any help in Iraq and is likely to be on its nuclear program which the West feared that it might include the production of nuclear weapons. Iran refutes such accusations.

Asked whether Iran would make concessions to help in Iraq, he answered, "for the United States to withdraw from Iraq, then we could talk about details."

Originally Posted by Pippyman

Ok this is just a thought...

For those who say that this currency could never go up to a level of 1:1 with the US dollar. I think the biggest thing to disprove this notion is this.
We already have them saying that they want to bring the currency up to previous levels. That is a fact. We have them saying that they are not planning on changing the currency. The problem I have with the naysayers is this. If the Iraqi banking officials thought that there was TOO MUCH dinar in circulation then I believe that they would have had NEW CURRENCY printed up and done away with the current currency by now. To me this tells me that the Iraqi banking officials believe that they can use the current currency to bring the dinar up to previous levels of value. In fact this just proves it. They are going to use the current paper in circulation NOT print new. We know this. We may not know HOW or WHEN but we know they want to bring it to par with previous levels and obviously are going to use the current currency. Until someone can prove or show me that they are printing new paper money to replace the dinar then obviously the Iraqi officials, IMF, World Bank, US think tanks DID NOT MISCALCULATE THE AMOUNT OF DINAR TO PRINT AND HAVE AVAILIBLE IN CIRCULATION. Because that is what the naysayers biggest argument essentially is. That the IMF, World Bank, and US officials MISCALCULATED THE AMOUNT OF DINARS TO PRINT. I highly doubt it.....

DING DING DING!!!!!
TELL HIM WHAT HES WON JOHNNY!!!!

Originally Posted by shotgunsusie

this concept is why you can add all those figures up you want to try and make it look as if there will be no large revalue in any capacity. but, if they sell their oil for dinars they have previously sold to countries that brings the oil dollars into play on the economy and that changes the playing field tremendously.

I totaly agree Susie.
I dubt they gona sell their Oil for $ wery loong, they definitly going ower to Dinar to get a rapid boost on their economy!
We also know Iran are shanging from $ to € & we Know China is also mooving their large $ reserves so I wouldent like to get my salary in $ nor be sitting on large $ holdings now!!!

But as most of us are in dinars we wont be needing any salary at all soon just party with our intrests earned from our Banker :-)

Pretty Good sign when the NY Times prints something positive about Iraq. Think they're making a Wall Street announcement here? On your mark, get ready, set ......


Iraqis Near Deal on Distribution of Oil Revenues by Population



By EDWARD WONG
Published: December 9, 2006
BAGHDAD, Dec. 8 — Iraqi officials are near agreement on a national oil law that would give the central government the power to distribute current and future oil revenues to the provinces or regions, based on their population, Iraqi and American officials say.

Iraq's Oil Fields If enacted, the measure, drafted by a committee of politicians and ministers, could help resolve a highly divisive issue that has consistently blocked efforts to reconcile the country’s feuding ethnic and sectarian factions. Sunni Arabs, who lead the insurgency, have opposed the idea of regional autonomy for fear that they would be deprived of a fair share of the country’s oil wealth, which is concentrated in the Shiite south and Kurdish north.

The Iraq Study Group report stressed that an oil law guaranteeing an equitable distribution of revenues was crucial to the process of national reconciliation, and thus to ending the war.

Without such a law, it would also be impossible for Iraq to attract the foreign investment it desperately needs to bolster its oil industry.

Officials cautioned that this was only a draft agreement, and that it could still be undermined by the ethnic and sectarian squabbling that has jeopardized other political talks. The Iraqi Constitution, for example, was stalled for weeks over small wording conflicts, and its measures are often meaningless in the chaos and violence in Iraq today.

But a deal on the oil law could be reached within days, according to officials involved in the drafting. It would then go to the cabinet and Parliament for approval.

The major remaining stumbling block, officials said, concerns the issuing of contracts for developing future oil fields. The Kurds are insisting that the regions reserve final approval over such contracts, fearing that if that power were given to a Shiite-dominated central government, it could ignore proposed contracts in the Kurdish north while permitting them in the Shiite south, American and Iraqi officials said.

The national oil law lies at the heart of debates about the future of Iraq, particularly the issue of a strong central government versus robust regional governments. The oil question has also inflamed ethnic and sectarian tensions. Sunni Arabs, who preside over areas of the country that apparently have little or no oil, are adamant about the equitable distribution of oil revenues by the central government.

On the drafting committee, Sunni Arabs have allied with the Shiites against the Kurds, who have sought to maintain as much regional control as possible over the oil industry in their autonomous northern enclave. Iraqi Kurdistan has enjoyed de facto independence since 1991, when the American military established a no-flight zone above the mountainous region to prevent raids by Saddam Hussein.

Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the senior American commander here, and Zalmay Khalilzad, the American ambassador, have urged Iraqi politicians to put the oil law at the top of their agendas, saying it must be passed before the year’s end.

The drafting committee is made up of ministers and politicians from the main Shiite, Sunni Arab and Kurdish blocs in government. They began talks months ago, but the pace picked up recently, said an American official tracking the negotiations, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he did not want to give the appearance of Western interference in sovereign Iraqi matters.

At the start of the talks, the Kurds fought to ensure that regional governments have the power to collect and distribute revenues from future fields, Iraqi and American officials said. They also proposed that revenues be shared among the regions based on both population and crimes committed against the people under Mr. Hussein’s rule. That would have given the Kurds and Shiites a share of the oil wealth larger than the proportions of their populations.

But the Kurds dropped those demands, said Barham Salih, a deputy prime minister who is a Kurd and the chairman of the committee.

“Revenue sharing is an accepted principle by all the constituent elements of the Iraqi government, including the Kurds, and that is the unifying element that we’re all hoping for in the oil law,” Mr. Salih said in an interview.

The American official said the Kurds were willing to make concessions because a national oil law could attract more foreign oil companies to exploration and development in Kurdistan. A large foreign oil company would have more confidence in signing a contract with the Kurds if it were to operate under the law of a sovereign country rather than just the law of an autonomous region.

Some Kurdish leaders also believe that the concessions are a worthwhile price to pay for having a stake in the much larger revenue pool of the country’s oil industry, the American official said. The southern fields accounted for 85 percent of total Iraqi crude production last year, partly because northern production was hampered by insurgent sabotage. The south has an estimated 65 percent of the country’s 115 billion barrels of proven reserves.

But the Kurds are still holding out on the issue of oil contracts, arguing that the Constitution guarantees the regions absolute rights in those matters. The Kurds recently discovered two new oil fields after signing exploration contracts with a Turkish company and a Norwegian company.

“There are those among us who say we cannot go back to the former days of centralization, which were not conducive to good business practice and to the idea of federalism that is enshrined in the Constitution,” Mr. Salih said.

In its recommendations released Wednesday, the Iraq Study Group took the opposite tack, to the anger of the Kurds. The report said that “no formula that gives control over revenues from future fields to the regions or gives control of oil fields to the regions is compatible with national reconciliation.” Though the Kurds have ceded their position on the issue of future revenues, they are fighting for control over the development of future fields.

The drafting committee met Thursday night to try to resolve the contract issue, but could not reach an agreement.

Distributing revenues by population could be a difficult matter without a reliable census, which Iraq lacks. Sunni Arabs often claim they are at least 60 percent of the population, not the 20 percent that is commonly cited. The Shiites are generally estimated to be 60 percent of the population, and the Kurds 20 percent. The American official said a national census expected to be taken next year should determine the share of revenue that goes to each province or region.

If doing a census next year is too politically fraught, or if security conditions prevent it, then revenues could be distributed to provincial or regional governments according to the household counts used by Mr. Hussein’s government to distribute rations in the 1990s.

The Kurds have insisted that revenues collected by the central government should be put into an account that automatically redistributes the money into sub-accounts dedicated to the provinces or regions. This approach could be written into the national oil law or into a separate law, the American official said.

The working draft of the oil law re-establishes the state-run Iraq National Oil Company, which was founded in 1964 to oversee oil production but was shut down by Mr. Hussein in 1987. The company would operate using a business model and not through a government budget process. Iraqi and American officials say that would make management of oil production more efficient and separate it from the Oil Ministry, which has been rife with corruption.

The North and South Oil Companies, which currently manage production in their regions, would fall under the umbrella of the Iraq National Oil Company. Any exports would still be sold through a state marketing company.

The law also sets production thresholds for creating new regional companies. A province or region, for example, might have to show it can produce 100,000 barrels a day before a company can be created there. Officials in Maysan Province in the south have already said they want to start a company.


http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/09/wo...pagewanted=all

Originally Posted by TerryTate

Yep. Of all of the things that are within the control of the CBI wouldn't the total amount of dinar printed seem to be the most obvious thing that they could control? How many of the naysayers think that the CBI was just printing an amount of money on a whim? No way was the amount printed a coincidence. Of course they projected how much could be distributed. Every time the government (U.S.) does something it is by a plan, and if the original plan isn't working, they implement the backup plan. If that plan isn't working they implement the backup of the backup plan. Despite what the press is portraying this current situation is by design.

I mean take the appointment of Robert Gates as Defense Secretary. How many of you are familiar with Gates background? Are you aware that he is a longtime insider of the Bush family. He goes back to the early days of Ronald Reagan. Gates was a young CIA man that helped Reagan/Bush win the White House through negotiations with the Iranians during the Iran Hostage Crisis. By the late 1980's Gates was the youngest CIA director ever appointed. And now here he pops up as the kindly old Texas A&M school president appointed to the Iraq Study Group, that is so highly touted by the Dems. The Dems are practically falling all over themselves to appoint him as Defense Secretary to replace the evil Rumsfeld, as Rummy is screwing up the war and we gotta get out as fast as possible. But what is Gates saying during his confirmation process? Why, we gotta increase the troops and stay, not decrease and leave. Say what, thought the Dems wanted to leave??? And what does the Iraqi Study Group say, "we need permanent American bases in Iraq". Say What??? Thought we were leaving. Now I am not saying that I am for leaving, but what I am trying to point out here is that this is an example of orchestrated government manuever (by both Republicans and Democrats). Its the case of "say one thing in the press and do another thing in reality". They have a plan, this is all a rehearsed play for them. So, how does this apply to the dinar?

Its that I am sure that they also knew exactly how much Dinar the CBI could let go abroad and how much they wanted to keep in Iraq. Sure, some of it has been smuggled, but don't you think that they know how much they have available in country? That would tell them approximately how much is abroad. With that information they know how strong the dinar is. Hell, with the relationships that they have with the U.S., Asia's and Europe's banks I would not be surprised if they have a pretty good idea how much Dinar they could get outside of their own country. So, it appears that they definitely have a plan. I just wish I knew the plan damnit. Got any more crumbs or straws to grasp at Susie?

Please sir may I have another? (said in best Tiny Tim voice to the puppet*******)

Alright I will put away Mr. Angry again. Sorry for the

brilliant post!

Originally Posted by CharmedPiper

It looks like they were working on Friday....gotta' give them credit there.

9/12/2006

Political leaders and security officers discussed the problems and outstanding issues

In order to unify the national front Baghdad-Sabah The Deputy Prime Minister Sallam Alzobai that held an enlarged meeting yesterday with the first President Jalal Talabani and Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, a number of leaders and prisoners, ministers and parliamentary figures come in Under the tireless efforts of political opponents in order to consolidate the national front and to find appropriate solutions to the outstanding issues. He pointed to Alzobai that this political movement that reflected positively on the Iraqi street, in order to eliminate the effects of all that threaten national unity, adding that the permanent need for such meetings contribute actively in bringing viewpoints option frank and direct communication between the leaders of blocs and Iraqi currents are paid to resolving the problems that stand in the way of achieving security and stability in the country. The meeting was attended by the President of the Kurdistan region Masoud Barzani, Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih and Dr. Adnan Al Dulaimi, head of the Iraqi Accord Front, Ibrahim al-Jaafari, former Prime Minister Dr. Muwaffaq Rubaie, national security adviser to the American ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, as well as the ministers of interior and national security, finance, higher education, electricity, a number of members of parliament and the government and security officials.

Translated version of http://www.alsabaah.com/

thats what i said earlier, technically they could work after prayers in the evening or whatever. if they were in a rush it could and has been done.

Originally Posted by Pippyman

Ok this is just a thought...

For those who say that this currency could never go up to a level of 1:1 with the US dollar. I think the biggest thing to disprove this notion is this.
We already have them saying that they want to bring the currency up to previous levels. That is a fact. We have them saying that they are not planning on changing the currency. The problem I have with the naysayers is this. If the Iraqi banking officials thought that there was TOO MUCH dinar in circulation then I believe that they would have had NEW CURRENCY printed up and done away with the current currency by now. To me this tells me that the Iraqi banking officials believe that they can use the current currency to bring the dinar up to previous levels of value. In fact this just proves it. They are going to use the current paper in circulation NOT print new. We know this. We may not know HOW or WHEN but we know they want to bring it to par with previous levels and obviously are going to use the current currency. Until someone can prove or show me that they are printing new paper money to replace the dinar then obviously the Iraqi officials, IMF, World Bank, US think tanks DID NOT MISCALCULATE THE AMOUNT OF DINAR TO PRINT AND HAVE AVAILIBLE IN CIRCULATION. Because that is what the naysayers biggest argument essentially is. That the IMF, World Bank, and US officials MISCALCULATED THE AMOUNT OF DINARS TO PRINT. I highly doubt it.....

It seems we haved moved from a naysayer being one who thought the currency was worthless due to the war, violence, no government, too much debt. And that it would never RV or that Iraq would not conduct elections and this Dinar thing was a joke. Now, a naysayer is one who thinks there will be a gradual RV over a period of time with an initial RV in single digits. Seems like this is progress to me. Everyone have a good weekend. The auction in the am may be as exciting as the last couple of weeks. Thank you all for all of the good information this am.

partial quote from rvalreadydang

While citizens were pleased with the promises of the government to improve their living conditions, which appeared signals in the new salary scale and the law of retirement yesterday and the day before yesterday, will be identified by looking at the oil quotas.

Originally Posted by shotgunsusie

[COLOR="Purple"]theres that law of retirement that was always talked about in the articles concerning raising the rate of the dinar.[/COLOR]

Explain this Please!!!