Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Please forgive if already posted. I read so much as we all due, but I have about a half of a brain at this point.

According to a recent paper published last November by Dow Jones after the world economic forum in the dead sea, Iraq's income from oil exports for this year was at 35 billion dollars with a 14.3% increase from last year's total.

And that if oil export levels retain the current level and under stable prices, the coming year will witness a record income that was never reached in the history of modern Iraq and revenues will jump up to 40 billion dollars; a huge figure given the humble plans of the government and a figure that will put the government in a position where it must come up with new and ambitious plans to match the new revenue figures.
In fact and from what can be read in papers and heard from official statements it seems most government departments failed to spend the funds allocated by the government for those departments to execute their projects.

That's not because of security challenges only since there are several regions in the country that are relatively stable and where work can be done but more because of bureaucracy and corruption that make it extremely difficult to implement plans and make sure the money is spent in the right direction.

I think this was what pushed the government to announce a number of new measures to cope with the condition, perhaps the easiest measure to come up with was to announce plans for massive raises for civil servants; according to al-Sabah the raise will be as high as 60% of current payments in some cases, especially to those with lower incomes.

Another announcement followed soon, yesterday al-Sabah brought the news that the parliament is discussing a suggestion to set aside 30% of oil sales income to distribute among the citizens of Iraq. The draft law sets 3 classes of payments according to age and subsequent needs and responsibilities; from one month to 6 years, from 6 to 18 years and the third one 19 years and older.
People who migrated from Iraq, those with salaries higher that 1 million dinars/month and convicted criminals will be excluded from the payment program, the report added.

The people here met the news with some delight, hope and some skepticism too although the announcement came through the government's paper.

If this plan comes to materialize I think it can reflect positively on the security situation to some extent. The economy is part of the problem and also part of the solution and the government should move forward with reforms that involve economy and infrastructure as well as, of course and above all, security.

I personally like the idea of distributing the money directly among the population because I believe the people are more capable of making good use of that money than the government and instead of having billions lost to corruption and mismanagement that money will be used to revive the market and reduce the government's control over the economy. Plus, it will give people the sense that they do have an actual and visible share of their country's riches.

The private sector in Iraq had witnessed giant leaps immediately after the fall of Saddam; that could be seen in the form of the thousands of private businesses that were established in the course of the past three years and that had a direct positive effect on the standards of living after long years of deprivation.

It's worth mentioning that between 1946 and the beginning of 2003 a total of 8374 businesses were registered while between April 2003 and the end of 2005 more than 20,000 have been registered. During last month alone 286 new businesses were added.

Such statistics seem quite extraordinary under the current security situation which sadly continues to overshadow and limits further improvement of this aspect of life in Iraq.

On the other hand, the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar improved significantly in the past few weeks and is now at 1410/$1 instead of 1480/1$ in early November. I am no economy expert but this looks like a good sign; it improves the purchase ability of people who get paid in dinar, which is the vast majority of course and at the same time it serves to reassure the people of the value of the national currency.

Let's imagine if the government intensifies its efforts in this direction and takes some candid and well-studied steps to offer a convenient environment for business and investment particularly in Baghdad, the heart of the country's economy. A lot of progress can be made, especially that the foreign investment law has been instated and approved which by the way looks like a good paper. This economic activity can move Iraq forward in a matter of few years and the country can catch up with what it missed.

The potential is huge; a stable climate is the key to unleash that potential.

Source: Iraq The Model Blog

An one more...same as above. thank you.

Iraqi officials are near agreement on a national oil law that would give the central government the power to distribute current and future oil revenues to the provinces or regions, based on their population, Iraqi and American officials say.

If enacted, the measure, drafted by a committee of politicians and ministers, could help resolve a highly divisive issue that has consistently blocked efforts to reconcile the country’s feuding ethnic and sectarian factions. Sunni Arabs, who lead the insurgency, have opposed the idea of regional autonomy for fear that they would be deprived of a fair share of the country’s oil wealth, which is concentrated in the Shiite south and Kurdish north.
The Iraq Study Group report stressed that an oil law guaranteeing an equitable distribution of revenues was crucial to the process of national reconciliation, and thus to ending the war.

Without such a law, it would also be impossible for Iraq to attract the foreign investment it desperately needs to bolster its oil industry.

Officials cautioned that this was only a draft agreement, and that it could still be undermined by the ethnic and sectarian squabbling that has jeopardized other political talks. The Iraqi Constitution, for example, was stalled for weeks over small wording conflicts, and its measures are often meaningless in the chaos and violence in Iraq today.

But a deal on the oil law could be reached within days, according to officials involved in the drafting. It would then go to the cabinet and Parliament for approval.
The major remaining stumbling block, officials said, concerns the issuing of contracts for developing future oil fields. The Kurds are insisting that the regions reserve final approval over such contracts, fearing that if that power were given to a Shiite-dominated central government, it could ignore proposed contracts in the Kurdish north while permitting them in the Shiite south, American and Iraqi officials said.

The national oil law lies at the heart of debates about the future of Iraq, particularly the issue of a strong central government versus robust regional governments. The oil question has also inflamed ethnic and sectarian tensions. Sunni Arabs, who preside over areas of the country that apparently have little or no oil, are adamant about the equitable distribution of oil revenues by the central government.

On the drafting committee, Sunni Arabs have allied with the Shiites against the Kurds, who have sought to maintain as much regional control as possible over the oil industry in their autonomous northern enclave. Iraqi Kurdistan has enjoyed de facto independence since 1991, when the American military established a no-flight zone above the mountainous region to prevent raids by Saddam Hussein.

Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the senior American commander here, and Zalmay Khalilzad, the American ambassador, have urged Iraqi politicians to put the oil law at the top of their agendas, saying it must be passed before the year’s end.

The drafting committee is made up of ministers and politicians from the main Shiite, Sunni Arab and Kurdish blocs in government. They began talks months ago, but the pace picked up recently, said an American official tracking the negotiations, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he did not want to give the appearance of Western interference in sovereign Iraqi matters.

At the start of the talks, the Kurds fought to ensure that regional governments have the power to collect and distribute revenues from future fields, Iraqi and American officials said. They also proposed that revenues be shared among the regions based on both population and crimes committed against the people under Mr. Hussein’s rule. That would have given the Kurds and Shiites a share of the oil wealth larger than the proportions of their populations.

But the Kurds dropped those demands, said Barham Salih, a deputy prime minister who is a Kurd and the chairman of the committee.

“Revenue sharing is an accepted principle by all the constituent elements of the Iraqi government, including the Kurds, and that is the unifying element that we’re all hoping for in the oil law,” Mr. Salih said in an interview.

The American official said the Kurds were willing to make concessions because a national oil law could attract more foreign oil companies to exploration and development in Kurdistan. A large foreign oil company would have more confidence in signing a contract with the Kurds if it were to operate under the law of a sovereign country rather than just the law of an autonomous region.

Some Kurdish leaders also believe that the concessions are a worthwhile price to pay for having a stake in the much larger revenue pool of the country’s oil industry, the American official said. The southern fields accounted for 85 percent of total Iraqi crude production last year, partly because northern production was hampered by insurgent sabotage. The south has an estimated 65 percent of the country’s 115 billion barrels of proven reserves.

But the Kurds are still holding out on the issue of oil contracts, arguing that the Constitution guarantees the regions absolute rights in those matters. The Kurds recently discovered two new oil fields after signing exploration contracts with a Turkish company and a Norwegian company.

“There are those among us who say we cannot go back to the former days of centralization, which were not conducive to good business practice and to the idea of federalism that is enshrined in the Constitution,” Mr. Salih said.

In its recommendations released Wednesday, the Iraq Study Group took the opposite tack, to the anger of the Kurds. The report said that “no formula that gives control over revenues from future fields to the regions or gives control of oil fields to the regions is compatible with national reconciliation.” Though the Kurds have ceded their position on the issue of future revenues, they are fighting for control over the development of future fields.

The drafting committee met Thursday night to try to resolve the contract issue, but could not reach an agreement.

Distributing revenues by population could be a difficult matter without a reliable census, which Iraq lacks. Sunni Arabs often claim they are at least 60 percent of the population, not the 20 percent that is commonly cited. The Shiites are generally estimated to be 60 percent of the population, and the Kurds 20 percent. The American official said a national census expected to be taken next year should determine the share of revenue that goes to each province or region.

If doing a census next year is too politically fraught, or if security conditions prevent it, then revenues could be distributed to provincial or regional governments according to the household counts used by Mr. Hussein’s government to distribute rations in the 1990s.

The Kurds have insisted that revenues collected by the central government should be put into an account that automatically redistributes the money into sub-accounts dedicated to the provinces or regions. This approach could be written into the national oil law or into a separate law, the American official said.

The working draft of the oil law re-establishes the state-run Iraq National Oil Company, which was founded in 1964 to oversee oil production but was shut down by Mr. Hussein in 1987. The company would operate using a business model and not through a government budget process. Iraqi and American officials say that would make management of oil production more efficient and separate it from the Oil Ministry, which has been rife with corruption.

The North and South Oil Companies, which currently manage production in their regions, would fall under the umbrella of the Iraq National Oil Company. Any exports would still be sold through a state marketing company.

The law also sets production thresholds for creating new regional companies. A province or region, for example, might have to show it can produce 100,000 barrels a day before a company can be created there. Officials in Maysan Province in the south have already said they want to start a company.

Originally Posted by DayDream

Saturday, December 9, 2006:

The slain terror leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi purportedly believed that Iraq's Shiite Muslims were more dangerous than US forces, according to a posthumous interview published Friday on the Internet.

He also believed they were more evil than dictator Saddam Hussein, according to the interview.

The 33-page interview, conducted sometime before a US fighter-bomber killed the former Iraq al-Qaida leader in June, could not be immediately authenticated.

It was posted on a Web site known to be a clearing-house for al-Qaida material.

The posting, which comes amid ongoing sectarian violence in Iraq, said the interview had been kept in al-Qaida's archive but did not explain why the terror group had decided to release it six months after his death.

The satan

In the interview, al-Zarqawi is quoted as saying the leader of Iraq's Shiites, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, is a "satan" who publicly tells Shiites to stay above the violence but secretly tells them to attack.

"Al-Sistani has ordered his followers not to fight the Americans ... and yet they hit Sunnis with assassinations, forcing them to flee their homes and attacking their mosques," said al-Zarqawi, a Sunni from Jordan. "For us, the Shiites are far more dangerous than the Americans."

"The mass graves that Saddam perpetrated, and all his other crimes over the past decades, do not amount to one-tenth of what the Shiites have done in the last three years," al-Zarqawi is quoted as saying.

Earlier this week, a bipartisan commission in the United States warned "the situation in Iraq is grave and deteriorating" and recommended fundamentally different U.S. policies to combat the sectarian violence roiling the country.

The Iraq Study Group report also concluded that al-Qaida in Iraq is now largely made up of Sunni Arabs. Some 1,300 foreign fighters are believed to support the group or be available to carry out suicide bombings, the study found.

In the interview, Al-Zarqawi condemns the attacks of Iraq's Shiite Muslim militiamen on the country's Sunni Muslim community.

Yet it was al-Zarqawi who had fomented Shiite-Sunni strife as the best way to scuttle the U.S. plans to rebuild Iraq as a democratic state after Saddam's overthrow.

Vicious attacks

Al-Zarqawi, whose real name was Ahmad Fadhil Nazzal al-Khalayleh, was responsible for the most vicious of the wave of attacks that occurred in the first years of the Iraqi insurgency.

He is believed to have personally beheaded at least two American hostages. The U.S. had put a $25 million bounty on his head, the same amount as for al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden.

In the interview, al-Zarqawi also rails against the leader of the Lebanese Shiite militant group Hezbollah, implicitly accusing Sheik Hassan Nasrallah of being in league with Israel.

Al-Zarqawi accuses Nasrallah of being two-faced in his opposition to Israel and suggests it is not an accident that Israeli aircraft have not killed him as they have killed several leaders of the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

"Hassan Nasrallah sits for hours at a military parade and Israeli aircraft don't bomb him. Who is he kidding?" al-Zarqawi is quoted as saying. (AP)

Al-Zarqawi said Shiites most dangerous - NDTV.com - News on Al-Zarqawi said Shiites most dangerous

Cheers!
DayDream

Interesting,

This is a extremely accurate overview and one I agree with. Sistani is indeed playing both sides, as is Maliki, and for good reasons, they are both caught between a rock and a hard place.

If you look at the whole picture, what we see is a country of revengful people, hense, all the senseless killing as we see it. Sooner or later this had to come to a head, which is what we are now seeing. Sunni had the Saddam power, Shia are seeking revenge for all those years of minority position, even though they were the majority population.

Whenever you have this scenario, you have the ingredients for revenge, and it runs deep and long standing. When you look to the north, the Kurd's have already been through this cycle, so what we see is they are now the economic driving force in Iraq, the leaders in the rebirth of Iraq, while the illiterates are stuck in a past century of hate and revenge.

No matter what is determined by the latest Iraqi study, no one in the west will ever be able to grasp the mindset of Iraq's, or anyone in this region. It is a whole different world, and although democracy as we know it was a noble goal, but it won't work in a country with so much internal hatred. I still say the only way to move forward is to move backwords, separate the sectarian factions who have no tolerance of each other.

Make this a free choice and most of the killings will end. It's the only way as I see it, and the Kurd's feel the same way. You cannot change the past in illiterate countries overnight, it may take another century to have peace among all the factions, but you need separation while they work towards this goal is how I see it. Sistani is a two faced terrorist, and Maliki has proven who he answers to, and Suni can't stand Shia in power. Sure has been an interesting journey, so hang in there, this looks better every day.

Happy Holiday Season to all, Mike

Originally Posted by Rubicon

Has anyone ever bought or know of the options offer at iraqidinars.com? I am trying to find out more info on it. Thanks!

Yes I bought several. The site and weekly e-mails explains it.
Bruce will respond to any questions by e-mail promptly.

I was banking on the r/v before now so I could pay for the dinars I reserved.
I will just have to settle for what dinar I have in hand if r/v doesn't come several days before Dec 15 which is my deadline to purchase.

I know this doesnt have anything to do with the dinar but,I think thier was some people talking about something like this the other day.

Bank of America may buy Barclays - Yahoo! News


didnt someone say that barclays was selling dinar?

Economic Curfews : procedures led to the rise in food prices and scarcity in the market

Economists and artisans and merchants told (morning) :

Baghdad-Imad Principality

A number of economists and professionals and traders expressed concern that the actions of the government to impose curfews have frequent and sudden economic problems and retirement burden citizens, especially self-employed persons and farmers.

They pointed in the poll conducted by (morning) that the procedures the curfews brought about a negative results in the structure of (the Iraqi economy) and led to major losses in agricultural production in particular also the payment of some brokers to raise the prices of agricultural products and food and some necessities and especially fuel, and explained Muhammad Qasim owner of the agricultural that the Farms exposure to significant losses the fact that the this product can afford to remain for a long time after, highlighting the To she exhibits is for the case of damage especially fresh agricultural produce such as fruits and vegetables, which are sold throughout the day and can not be stockpiling for the following day, which has brought about great material losses of the peasants and the grocer what forced the these to raise the prices of those agricultural products to the weaknesses after the days of (the curfews) to compensate their losses and thus withdraw those consequences upon Iraqi consumer in addition to the loss of (the Iraqi markets) for a number of agricultural products across the border, The reason for this is apprehension the importer the Iraqi fluctuations security and a repetition of the situation itself, and if we consider that most of the actions prohibition are sudden ...

Private transport subjected to numerous problems, the driver (Mohamed Badawi) talked about the situation, saying : caused embargo measures to prevent the arrival of Iraqi trucks loaded with agricultural products such as (tomato, option, bananas, oranges) imported from neighboring countries, the presentation of such goods to the damage, since there are no alternatives for the conservation of these products due to the lack of warehouses equipped Balbaradat large, and if the electric power outages Be impediment of conserving and storing agricultural products, this situation has led to significant losses brought to bear on the importer the Iraqi, in addition parking hundreds of trucks for a long time awaiting Fatah the entrances of the capital Baghdad-Ahmed Hashim (Qassib) talked about this situation saying : which happened was the high great price because of impassable roads and the closure of many (bread ovens and freezer), as it has become difficult to get those articles They are necessary as a meal Chairperson of the citizen, and arrived situation pension for workers and of wage earners to develop tragically especially for those who rely (daily wages), and which have been severed altogether due to curfews, the forced the many of those to (the borrowing) of the owners, and friends in the market in order to copes the needs of his family daily

Citizen (Jawad Kadhim) has a special transport vehicle (pickups) is the source of livelihood basis talked about the suffering day ban, saying : The impact of a ban on many ordinary citizens ... I am the driver of the transfer of goods and small adopted in response Emory (pension) and need a 15 thousand dinars, so I can pay living expenses, rent addition to the requirements of the vehicle repair and pay high petrol, this month bore the financial loss amounted to 200 thousand dinars because of the curfews sudden what I had to borrowing from friends, and I say frankly I am afraid of the coming days.

Through this poll deadline for some segments of society seem the adverse economic impact they have left situations the curfews orderly and the sudden, the owners of the Economic Affair was say in this situation summarized in of saying : We are not against security procedures actors in the fight against terrorism But which call upon him to not be the purely security at the expense of Rizq the citizen and the daily bread and be there delicate balancing by the government of the benefits of the curfews security and economic losses caused by those procedures, and that successful political who is putting economic issues one of his priority in order to achieve prosperity and stability to the Division

Translated version of http://www.alsabaah.com/

Cheers!
DayDream

Saturday, December 09, 2006

More money to the people.
According to a recent paper published last November by Dow Jones (don't have a link, read a summary on paper) after the world economic forum in the dead sea, Iraq's income from oil exports for this year was at 35 billion dollars with a 14.3% increase from last year's total.

And that if oil export levels retain the current level and under stable prices, the coming year will witness a record income that was never reached in the history of modern Iraq and revenues will jump up to 40 billion dollars; a huge figure given the humble plans of the government and a figure that will put the government in a position where it must come up with new and ambitious plans to match the new revenue figures.

In fact and from what can be read in papers and heard from official statements it seems most government departments failed to spend the funds allocated by the government for those departments to execute their projects.
That's not because of security challenges only since there are several regions in the country that are relatively stable and where work can be done but more because of bureaucracy and corruption that make it extremely difficult to implement plans and make sure the money is spent in the right direction.

I think this was what pushed the government to announce a number of new measures to cope with the condition, perhaps the easiest measure to come up with was to announce plans for massive raises for civil servants; according to al-Sabah the raise will be as high as 60% of current payments in some cases, especially to those with lower incomes.

Another announcement followed soon, yesterday al-Sabah brought the news that the parliament is discussing a suggestion to set aside 30% of oil sales income to distribute among the citizens of Iraq. The draft law sets 3 classes of payments according to age and subsequent needs and responsibilities; from one month to 6 years, from 6 to 18 years and the third one 19 years and older.
People who migrated from Iraq, those with salaries higher that 1 million dinars/month and convicted criminals will be excluded from the payment program, the report added.

The people here met the news with some delight, hope and some skepticism too although the announcement came through the government's paper.

If this plan comes to materialize I think it can reflect positively on the security situation to some extent. The economy is part of the problem and also part of the solution and the government should move forward with reforms that involve economy and infrastructure as well as, of course and above all, security.
I personally like the idea of distributing the money directly among the population because I believe the people are more capable of making good use of that money than the government and instead of having billions lost to corruption and mismanagement that money will be used to revive the market and reduce the government's control over the economy. Plus, it will give people the sense that they do have an actual and visible share of their country's riches.


The private sector in Iraq had witnessed giant leaps immediately after the fall of Saddam; that could be seen in the form of the thousands of private businesses that were established in the course of the past three years and that had a direct positive effect on the standards of living after long years of deprivation.
It's worth mentioning that between 1946 and the beginning of 2003 a total of 8374 businesses were registered while between April 2003 and the end of 2005 more than 20,000 have been registered. During last month alone 286 new businesses were added.
Such statistics seem quite extraordinary under the current security situation which sadly continues to overshadow and limits further improvement of this aspect of life in Iraq.

On the other hand, the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar improved significantly in the past few weeks and is now at 1410/$1 instead of 1480/1$ in early November. I am no economy expert but this looks like a good sign; it improves the purchase ability of people who get paid in dinar, which is the vast majority of course and at the same time it serves to reassure the people of the value of the national currency.

Let's imagine if the government intensifies its efforts in this direction and takes some candid and well-studied steps to offer a convenient environment for business and investment particularly in Baghdad, the heart of the country's economy. A lot of progress can be made, especially that the foreign investment law has been instated and approved which by the way looks like a good paper. This economic activity can move Iraq forward in a matter of few years and the country can catch up with what it missed.
The potential is huge; a stable climate is the key to unleash that potential.

Posted by Mohammed @ 17:33

IRAQ THE MODEL

Saddam's Nephew Escapes Prison:
PJM in BarcelonaDecember 9, 2006 10:12 AM
A nephew of Saddam Hussein serving a life sentence for making bombs for Iraq’s insurgency escaped from prison Saturday in northern Iraq. (Breitbart/AP)

Iraq Is Close to Reaching Pact On Distribution of Oil Revenue

By Hassan Hafidh and Selina Williams
Wall Street Journal Online
December 09 2006
Word Count: 693 | Companies Featured in This Article: Calibre Energy

Negotiations for a new Iraq hydrocarbon agreement have taken place in recent days, with the circulation of a draft law that recommends the government sign production-sharing agreements and other service and buyback contracts to upgrade the country's war-ravaged oil industry.

But the specifics of how oil revenue would be divided among Iraq's different factions remain undetermined and still present a barrier to foreign investment and developing the nation's vast reserves of crude oil. At the same time, Iraq's increasing violence, including continuous attacks on oil infrastructure, present a formidable hurdle to reviving the battered industry.

Originally Posted by Lunar

Iraq Is Close to Reaching Pact On Distribution of Oil Revenue

By Hassan Hafidh and Selina Williams
Wall Street Journal Online
December 09 2006
Word Count: 693 | Companies Featured in This Article: Calibre Energy

Negotiations for a new Iraq hydrocarbon agreement have taken place in recent days, with the circulation of a draft law that recommends the government sign production-sharing agreements and other service and buyback contracts to upgrade the country's war-ravaged oil industry.

But the specifics of how oil revenue would be divided among Iraq's different factions remain undetermined and still present a barrier to foreign investment and developing the nation's vast reserves of crude oil. At the same time, Iraq's increasing violence, including continuous attacks on oil infrastructure, present a formidable hurdle to reviving the battered industry.

WOOOOOTTTTTTT!!!!!