Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Sorry if posted:
Bush begins new series of consultations on Iraq

Bush begins new series of consultations on Iraq - Yahoo! News



by Stephen Collinson 38 minutes ago

WASHINGTON (AFP) - US
President George W. Bush begins a new series of consultations on
Iraq after a shock-therapy indictment of his conduct of the war by an independent policy commission.
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Bush will make a public show of his deliberations, starting with a visit Monday to the State Department and meetings with top outside experts in the Oval Office.

On Tuesday, he will have a video-conference with military commanders and US Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad.

Wednesday will see the president at the
Pentagon.

Bush will huddle with top foreign policy and military aides, seeking to bounce back after the Iraq Study Group's warning that Iraq's plight is "grave and deteriorating" and without urgent action could spark a regional crisis.

Intense scrutiny, which built up ahead of the report, has now shifted to the White House, as Bush sifts options and sees his political base erode, as rival Democrats gear up to take over Congress in the new year.

..it is more there, but this is the agenda for the next days...

At the same time, there is an article with the same title in arabic ( www.alrafidayn.com):

Welcome to ALrafidayn: The Iraqi information service

Bush begins a series of consultations on Iraq

واشنطن- بغداد-11-12 : يبدأ الرئيس الاميركي جورج بوش اليوم سلسلة من المشاورات حول العراق بعد التوصيات التي قدمتها له اللجنة المستقلة لدراسة الوضع في العراق برئاسة وزير الخارجية الجمهوري الاسبق جيمس بيكر والنائب السابق الديموقراطي لي هاملتون. وسيبدأ بوش مشاوراته بزيارة الى وزارة الخارجية الاثنين وعقد لقاءات مع خبراء من خارج الادارة في المكتب البيضاوي.Washington-Baghdad-12-11 : The American President George Bush today, a series of consultations on Iraq after the recommendations submitted to him by the Independent Commission to examine the situation in Iraq, headed by Foreign Minister, former Republican James Baker and former deputy Democrat Lee Hamilton. Bush will begin his visit to the Foreign Ministry on Monday and held meetings with experts from outside the Department in the Oval Office.

وسيعقد بوش الثلاثاء مؤتمرا بدائرة تلفزيونية مغلقة مع القادة العسكريين والسفير الاميركي في العراق زلماي خليل زاد. كما سيزور البنتاغون الاربعاء.The conference will be held Tuesday, Bush television service closed with military commanders and the American ambassador in Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad. It also will visit the Pentagon on Wednesday.

وسيجتمع بوش مع كبار المساعدين في السياسة الخارجية والمستشارين العسكريين لدراسة الوضع بعد تأكيد اللجنة ان الوضع في العراق "خطير ومتدهور" وانه اذا لم يتم اتخاذ تحرك سريع فان ذلك قد يؤدي الى ازمة في المنطقة. وبعد صدور التقرير انتقلت الانظار الان الى البيت الابيض حيث يقوم بوش بدراسة خياراته فيما تتضاءل قاعدته السياسية مع اقتراب احكام الديموقراطيين سيطرتهم على الكونغرس في بداية العام الجديد.Bush will meet with senior assistants in foreign policy and military advisers to study the situation after confirmation that the situation in Iraq "serious and deteriorating" and that if action is not taken quickly, it could lead to a crisis in the region. After the publication of the report, attention is now shifted to the White House where Bush is studying options with diminished political base with the approach of the Democrats control of Congress at the beginning of the new year.

ويقول البيت الابيض ان بوش يرغب في الكشف عن نهجه الجديد في خطاب الى الامة يلقيه قبل عيد الميلاد. وصرح بروس ريدل مسؤول السياسة الخارجية المخضرم الذي يعمل حاليا في معهد بروكنغز ان "الامر يتعلق في نهاية المطاف بما يحدث في شارع بنسلفانيا (في اشارة الى الكونغرس) وفي المكتب البيضاوي". واضاف ان "هدف هذه اللجنة هو تقديم علاج بالصدمات للمكتب البيضاوي (...) يقول للرئيس ان النهج الذي تتبعه يقود الى كارثة وعليك ان تغيره".The White House says that Bush wants to uncover new approach in an address to the nation by before Christmas. An official Bruce Riedel foreign policy veteran who is now at the Brookings Institute that "the matter ultimately what is happening in Pennsylvania Street (in reference to the Congress) in the Oval Office." He added that "the goal of this committee is to provide therapy for the Oval Office (...) The President says that the approach leads to disaster and you have to change. "

ومن الاسئلة الرئيسية المطروحة: هل سيقبل بوش الغطاء السياسي الذي تقدمه لجنة الدراسة ويتبنى توصياتها ال79 ام انه سيضع سياسته الجديدة الخاصة؟.One key question : Do you accept the Bush political cover provided by the International Committee of the study and adopting the 79 recommendations, or he would its new?.

وتدل المؤشرات الاولية على ان الرئيس غير مستعد لقبول توصية اللجنة باجراء محادثات مباشرة مع سوريا وايران لانقاذ العراق. وتتطلب مثل هذه الخطوة الغاء عقيدته الدبلوماسية التي تنص على ان هذه البلدان "ذات السلوك السيء" لا تستحق ان تكافأ باجراء محادثات مع واشنطن.The preliminary indications are that the President is not ready to accept the recommendation of the Commission to conduct direct talks with Syria and Iran in order to save Iraq. Require such a step cancel diplomatic creed, which states that these countries are "relevant misconduct" does not deserve to be rewarded for talks with Washington.

كما نأى بوش بنفسه عن توصية اللجنة له بسحب معظم قواته بحلول 2008 بعد ممارسة الضغط على الحكومة العراقية بالمصالحة وتسريع تدريب القوات العراقية من قبل مدربين اميركيين يتم ضمهم للقوات العراقية. واكد الخميس على ان سحب القوات يعتمد على الاوضاع على الارض وتوصيات القادة العسكريين.Bush also distanced himself from the recommendation of the Committee to withdraw most of its troops by 2008 after exerting pressure on the Iraqi government to reconciliation and accelerate the training of Iraqi forces trained by the Americans are persuaded them to the Iraqi forces. He confirmed on Thursday that the withdrawal of troops depends on the situation on the ground and the recommendations of military leaders.

ورغم الدعوات في واشنطن لتبني الرئيس بوش توصيات التقرير، فان البيت الابيض ينظر الى التقرير على انه مصدر واحد فقط من مصادر المشورة، اذ يتوقع ان تستكمل العديد من الدراسات التي تجري داخل الادارة الاميركية حول السياسة في العراق. وقال توني سنو المتحدث باسم البيت الايض ان "هناك توصيات واقتراحات وتحليلات اخرى سيتسلمها الرئيس في المستقبل القريب ومهمة الرئيس هي الخروج بافضل مزيج من السياسات".Despite calls in Washington for President Bush recommendations in the report, the White House viewed the report as a source of only one of the sources of advice, which is expected to be completed, many of the studies conducted within the American administration over the policy in Iraq. He said Tony Snow House spokesman metabolism that "there are recommendations and suggestions and analysis handed President in the near future and the task of the President was to produce the best mix of policies."

ويدرس البيت الابيض ثلاث خيارات اوردتها صحيفة "واشنطن بوس" السبت هي رفع عديد القوات الاميركية في العراق بارسال ما بين 15 وثلاثين الف جندي اضافي في الامد القصير لتهدئة بغداد، ووضع خطة للابتعاد عن النزاع الداخلي والتركيز على ملاحقة الارهابيين، والتحرك لدعم الاغلبية السنية والتخلي عن الجهود لخطب ود المسلحين السنة.And considering the White House three options reported in the newspaper "Washington BOSS" Saturday is to increase the size of the American forces in Iraq by sending between 15 and thirty thousand additional troops in the short term to calm Baghdad, and a plan to move away from internal conflict and focus on the prosecution of terrorists, and the move to support the Sunni majority and the abandonment of efforts to sweet-armed year.

الا ان الدعم السياسي للرئيس بوش يتضاءل اذان الديموقراطيين وحتى مناصريه الجمهوريين يوجهون اليه انتقادات حادة.However, the political support for President Bush is receding ears of Democrats and Republicans even his supporters to send him sharp criticism.

وصرحت الرئيسة المقبلة لمجلس النواب الديموقراطية نانسي بيلوزي بعد اجتماع مع بوش الجمعة "نامل في ان يكون الرئيس فهم الرسالة". وحتى عضو مجلس الشيوخ عن ولاية اريغون غوردون سميث الذي كان من المؤيدين لسياسة ادارة بوش حول العراق، انشق عن رئيسه. وقال في كلمة مؤثرة الخميس انه تعب من سماع اخبار القتلى. وقال "لنخرج من هناك مهرولين او سائرين (...) خضنا هذه الحرب بطريقة مؤسفة للغاية".The President said the coming of democracy to the House of Representatives Nancy Bilozi after the meeting with Bush on Friday, "We hope that the President understand the message." Even Senator for the state of Arigon Gordon Smith, who was one of the supporters of the Bush Administration's policy on Iraq, dissented from the President. He said in a speech Thursday that the influential tired of hearing the news about the dead. He said, "to get out of there or run as voltigeurs marching (...) Fought this war in a most unfortunate. "

ومن العوامل الاخرى التي قد تؤثر على سياسة بوش تعيين وزير الدفاع الجديد روبرت غيتس الذي من المقرر ان يتولى مهام منصبه في 18 كانون الاول/ديسمبر خلفا للوزير دونالد رامسفلد. وقد فاجأ غيتس العضو السابق في لجنة بيكر هاملتون للدراسة، عديدين في واشنطن الاسبوع الماضي عندما اعترف صراحة بان الولايات المتحدة لا تحقق نصرا في العراق، وهو ما لم يعترف به بوش صراحة بعد.Other factors that may affect Bush's policy and the appointment of the new Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who is expected to assume his duties on December 18, succeeding Minister Donald Rumsfeld. Gates surprised a former member of the Baker Hamilton of the study, many in Washington last week when he acknowledged explicitly that the United States can not achieve victory in Iraq, which was not recognized by the Bush explicitly yet.

احزاب سياسية عراقية لدعم "السلم الاهلي" والحكومةIraqi political parties to support "civil peace" and the government

على صعيد آخر، اعلنت مصادر سياسية وبرلمانية عراقية اليوم الاثنين ان احزابا كبرى من مختلف الاتجاهات اتفقت على دعم العملية السياسية والحكومة بهدف تحصين "السلم الاهلي"، نافية اي تغيير في رئاسة الحكومة. وقال النائب الشيخ جلال الدين الصغير الذي يتمتع بنفوذ في المجلس الاعلى للثورة الاسلامية بزعامة عبد العزيز الحكيم لوكالة فرانس برس ان "قوى سياسية توصلت الى اتفاق لدعم الحكومة وتحقيق حال افضل من السلم الاهلي بهدف تحصينه". واضاف "انه اتفاق بين قوى سياسية وليس برلمانية"، مؤكدا عدم وجود "اي تغيير في التحالفات البرلمانية".On the other hand, the political sources and Iraqi parliamentary today, Monday, that some of the major trends of various agreed to support the political process and the government to fortify "civil peace", denying any change in the presidency of the government. The deputy said Sheikh Jalal Al-Din small wield in the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution led by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, told Agence France Presse that the "political powers have reached an agreement to support the government and to achieve a better view of civil peace strengthen." He added that "an agreement between the political forces and not parliamentary," stressing that there is "no change in the parliamentary alliances."

والقوى السياسية المعنية هي المجلس الاعلى للثورة الاسلامية ابرز الاحزاب الشيعية، والحزب الديموقراطي الكردستاني والاتحاد الوطني الكردستاني اهم الاحزاب الكردية، والحزب الاسلامي العراقي ابرز احزاب العرب السنة. وعبر الصغير عن امله في ان يكون "الاتفاق قاعدة تنضم اليها احزاب وقوى اخرى" مؤكدا انه "ليس موجها ضد احد".The political forces concerned is the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution, the most prominent Shiite parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, the main Kurdish parties, the Iraqi Islamic Party, the most prominent Sunni Arab parties. And across the small hope that the "agreement of the parties to join forces and the other", he said, adding that he was "not directed against anyone."

واكد الصغير من جهة اخرى عدم صحة معلومات تحدثت عن محاولات تغيير رئيس الوزراء نوري المالكي. وقال ان "هذا الامر ليس صحيحا (...) لا تغيير في رئاسة الوزراء".The small, on the other incorrect information about attempts to change the Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. He said that "this is not true (...) No change in the prime minister. "

من جهته، قال النائب عن التحالف الكرستاني محمود عثمان "قبل عشرة اشهر كانت هناك رغبة بتكوين جبهة من هذه الاحزاب وهي تعمل الان على اعادة تكوين هذه الجبهة باعتبارها احزابا كبيرة تمثل مختلف الكتل ومعتدلة بالنسبة للاخرين". واضاف ان "هذا التحالف عبارة عن نواة للجميع ويشكل اسنادا للحكومة والعملية السياسية وتقويتها (...) ليس موجها ضد المالكي"، مشيرا الى احتمال ان "تخرج الاحزاب ببرنامج يكون مقبولا لدى الاخرين".For his part, the coalition deputy Mahmoud Othman ideology "Ten months ago there was a desire Front composition of the parties and is now working on the re-formation of such a front as large parties representing various blocs and moderate for others." He added, "This alliance is the nucleus of all is even of the government and the political process and strengthening of (...) Not directed against Al-Maliki, "pointing to the possibility that" outside parties program that would be acceptable to the others. "
..again, it is more , but this is all about Bush's schedule

Originally Posted by Offshore-Wealth.com

Good question,

Simply put, all oil is sold for dollars, so since 95% plus percent of revenues comes from oil sales, there is an unending supply of dollars coming into Iraq every day.

Happy Holiday Season to all, Mike

Thanks mike,

Then the next question is since the CBI is a Seperate Entitiy from the government. Those dollars don't simply Appear in the CBI Vault, the CBI has to buy those dollars right?

Originally Posted by DayDream

I posted this awhile back when Adster was curious about when the auctions started.

An Auction As The Solution
The solution was to introduce a foreign exchange auction. This was kick-started by the CBI selling a small amount of its foreign exchange reserves to the market. Thereafter, the auction rate could be used for MoF dollar sales to the CBI (so that it would be a genuine market rate, rather than something based on a straw poll of street exchanges); and the market could bid for dollars in the auction to meet the level of demand. If demand was excessive, the rate would adjust.
We were aware that, once the new currency was available, the MoF would be selling several hundred million dollars a month to the CBI, and that auctions could easily exceed $10mn a time as the domestic demand generated by government expenditure (payment of salaries, pensions etc) fed though to import demand (since many consumer goods had to be imported), and thus demand for foreign currency. It was important to prepare the market for the auction system, and ideally to have a mechanism up and running, before the amounts became large. This meant starting in early October at the latest.

The Foreign Exchange Auction In Iraq

Pretty much says where the dollar comes from. Hope this helps.

Cheers!
DayDream

Ok, Thats what I thought, so the MOF sells SEVERAL HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS per month to the CBI In exchange for Dinars. I was just wondering, all these numbers of removed Dinar from Circultion like 1.2 trillion or whatever people are saying, are not taking this into account. Am i Correct?

Originally Posted by Elfwizard

Thanks mike,

Then the next question is since the CBI is a Seperate Entitiy from the government. Those dollars don't simply Appear in the CBI Vault, the CBI has to buy those dollars right?

Interesting,

Since oil is all owned by country of Iraq, and CBI is the Iraqi bank, all revenues come through CBI.

Happy Holiday Season to all, Mike

Originally Posted by Elfwizard

Ok, Thats what I thought, so the MOF sells SEVERAL HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS per month to the CBI In exchange for Dinars. I was just wondering, all these numbers of removed Dinar from Circultion like 1.2 trillion or whatever people are saying, are not taking this into account. Am i Correct?

I kinda assumed that from the article I posted that it was their foreign reserves that they were using instead of dinars to buy the dollar from the MOF. Could be wrong, but that was my take on it, and I certainly have been wrong before. Anybody have any thoughts on this?

Cheers!
DayDream

Ok here is the first part of the article...

Background

The government’s revenue is predominantly in US dollars, from oil sales. To this extent, Iraq’s position is similar to that of many countries in the region. And in common with many countries in the region, its expenditure is largely in domestic currency, in this case Iraqi dinar. The Ministry of Finance therefore needs to sell dollars for dinar.

Typically, a Ministry of Finance with foreign currency revenues will sell surplus foreign exchange (it will use some for the purchase of imports for government projects etc; and may keep some in a separate oil stabilization fund) to the central bank; and the central bank will on-sell dollars to the market, via the banking system. Under a fixed exchange rate regime – and many oil-exporting countries in the region operate such a policy – it is clear at what rate the Ministry should sell to the central bank. The central bank can then on-sell, at the same rate, whenever banks request dollars. Prior to the war, Iraq operated a fixed exchange rate regime (albeit with a hopelessly non-market exchange rate), supported by exchange controls. But post war, the central bank was not in a position to operate a fixed exchange rate regime, and in any case did not want to lock into the exchange rate prevailing at the time.1

From the end of the war though summer 2003, the exchange rate was purely market-determined – the market in question being a street market for physical cash in three main locations in Baghdad. But the Ministry and central bank did not need to make use of this market, as official expenditure at that time was mostly in US dollar bills.2 From October, things had to change. Once the currency exchange was under way (from 15 October), it was clearly important – if only from a political point of view – for the government to make disbursements in the new Iraqi dinar, rather than predominantly in dollars as had been the case since May. This meant that the Ministry needed a reference rate at which it could sell dollars to the central bank; and the central bank needed a mechanism for on-selling dollars to the market.

Without a mechanism to rechannel dollars to the economy, there would have been two consequences:

A shortage of dollars could hit the dinar exchange rate, leading potentially to a very sharp depreciation;

A dollar shortage would also cut off import supply, pushing up prices sharply. (Large amounts of dollar expenditure by the CPA and MoF had, predictably, fed through to a huge increase in imports, as previously suppressed demand could now be satisfied.)

Associating the introduction of the ‘new’ currency with sharp depreciation, cutting of the supply of consumer goods, and a hike in prices for those goods still available would have been disastrous.

Can anyone with a clear head (which I don't have today due to the flu ) decipher this?

Cheers!
DayDream

Apologies if this has been already posted....

Dinar soars: Iraqi currency hits 2-year high
11/12/2006
Source: The Chronical Herald

Iraq’s dinar currency has risen to a nearly two-year high against the U.S. dollar, as the nation’s central bank tries to fend off skyrocketing inflation by buying up the currency with dollars at its daily auctions.

Most of the money the Iraqi government earns is in U.S. dollars because oil exports are the main source of its income, and the bank has about US$14 billion in foreign assets, said Mudher Qassim, the Central Bank of Iraq’s director of statistics.

On Thursday, the last day of the work week in Baghdad, the central bank led the way at its daily currency auction, which saw 25 million U.S. dollars sold by about a dozen banks, the central bank said. Even larger amounts of dollars were sold during 10 of the auctions in November.

"Our goal is to reduce inflation, which is now running at about 50 per cent, by improving the dinar and thereby making imported goods cheaper," Qassim said, adding that more than 80 per cent of all Iraq’s tradable goods are imported, he said.

In a report in August, the International Monetary Fund also said inflation was escalating in Iraq. The 12-month rate of inflation ended 2005 at 31.7 per cent, but inflation then accelerated, with 12-month inflation reaching 58 per cent in May 2006, the report said.

Iraq’s Central Bank also is trying to fight inflation by raising interest rates. In November it raised its key policy rate to 16 per cent from 12 per cent. Wednesday’s report from the bipartisan U.S. Iraq Study Group said that by the end of 2006, the bank will raise rates to 20 per cent and appreciate the dinar by 10 per cent.

The Central Bank’s fight against inflation could prove to be an uphill battle, however, since many observers believe the leading contributor to inflation is the high cost of security involved in distributing goods throughout the country.

On Thursday, the dinar was trading at the central bank’s auction price of 1,424 against the U.S. dollar, its strongest price since March 23, 2004, when it was at 1,420.

http://www.iraqdirectory.com/DisplayNews.aspx?id=2733

No one's very happy with the "way out" and I think everyone knows 10% just aint gonna cut it...

Probably more of the same, but I enjoy reading articles about the value of the dinar increasing...

Demand for the U.S. dollar was lower to $14.830 million in Iraq’s Central Bank auction on Sunday compared with $25.570 million in the previous session.
The central bank covered all bids from banks at $8.820 million in cash and $6.010 million in transfers abroad, all at 1,422 dinars to the dollar, two dinars less than the previous session.
Ten banks participating in Sunday’s auction offered to sell one million dollars at 1420 dinars to a dollar.

http://www.iraqdirectory.com/DisplayNews.aspx?id=2739

Originally Posted by DayDream

Ok here is the first part of the article...

Background

The government’s revenue is predominantly in US dollars, from oil sales. To this extent, Iraq’s position is similar to that of many countries in the region. And in common with many countries in the region, its expenditure is largely in domestic currency, in this case Iraqi dinar. The Ministry of Finance therefore needs to sell dollars for dinar.

Typically, a Ministry of Finance with foreign currency revenues will sell surplus foreign exchange (it will use some for the purchase of imports for government projects etc; and may keep some in a separate oil stabilization fund) to the central bank; and the central bank will on-sell dollars to the market, via the banking system. Under a fixed exchange rate regime – and many oil-exporting countries in the region operate such a policy – it is clear at what rate the Ministry should sell to the central bank. The central bank can then on-sell, at the same rate, whenever banks request dollars. Prior to the war, Iraq operated a fixed exchange rate regime (albeit with a hopelessly non-market exchange rate), supported by exchange controls. But post war, the central bank was not in a position to operate a fixed exchange rate regime, and in any case did not want to lock into the exchange rate prevailing at the time.1

From the end of the war though summer 2003, the exchange rate was purely market-determined – the market in question being a street market for physical cash in three main locations in Baghdad. But the Ministry and central bank did not need to make use of this market, as official expenditure at that time was mostly in US dollar bills.2 From October, things had to change. Once the currency exchange was under way (from 15 October), it was clearly important – if only from a political point of view – for the government to make disbursements in the new Iraqi dinar, rather than predominantly in dollars as had been the case since May. This meant that the Ministry needed a reference rate at which it could sell dollars to the central bank; and the central bank needed a mechanism for on-selling dollars to the market.

Without a mechanism to rechannel dollars to the economy, there would have been two consequences:

A shortage of dollars could hit the dinar exchange rate, leading potentially to a very sharp depreciation;

A dollar shortage would also cut off import supply, pushing up prices sharply. (Large amounts of dollar expenditure by the CPA and MoF had, predictably, fed through to a huge increase in imports, as previously suppressed demand could now be satisfied.)

Associating the introduction of the ‘new’ currency with sharp depreciation, cutting of the supply of consumer goods, and a hike in prices for those goods still available would have been disastrous.

Can anyone with a clear head (which I don't have today due to the flu ) decipher this?

Cheers!
DayDream

So this is what I have been trying to find, I found an older article about this but this one is MUCH better. We have no Idea How many dollars the MOF sells to the CBI, which means we have no Idea how many dinars are going back out.

Right?

This is EXACTLY the type of thing I want to see: evidence of a vision for the future. Like the article I posted a few weeks ago about the big light rail project they're working on for Baghdad...this type of thing shows that the men in the expensive robes are thinking about a big bright prosperous (a la Dubai perhaps?) future...My opinion is that when it comes down to it, a few men in expensive robes with million dollar business projects will accomplish more in one afternoon than a whole room full of politicians will in a lifetime....I doubt very seriously that commuter trains and city designs will be accomplished with anything less than 1:1...

Advanced work in designs of Iraqi cities
09/12/2006
Source: Al-Sabah

General Directorate of Building Planning at Ministry of Municipalities achieved advanced steps at project of modernization primary designs of Iraqi cities and prepares new law of building planning and studies estimation fact of urbanite development in throughout country, information advisor of Ministry said according to director of building planning. She stressed that directorate would prepare a law of building planning to become legal base of working in this field in all areas of Iraq and achieve a study to estimate fact of urbanite development in Iraqi cities especially after study four provinces for this project.

http://www.iraqdirectory.com/DisplayNews.aspx?id=2724