Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Originally Posted by bigjase1

forget a re-print it would cost to much money for them and money they have not got..so dont worry no reprint no lop nid is here to stay

Plus, if they did a reprint, all countries and investors would lose all faith in them. It would be a death blow to their country.

Originally Posted by YogiBrood

As Mike pointed out it didn't and we need also to understand, this is NOT a stereo-type approach most situations are dependent on to see results. Play along and be patient and enjoy the doggy nudging the pony...


YB. - slash !! to the pony and the doggies at it...

Slash !! To the pony and the doggies!!

I like it. Another one to add to the RC dictionary.

Originally Posted by Wm.Knowles

Hello everyone. First, I would like to thank Socata 850s for posting each morning, this gives us an update on each days auction. It is very helpful.
We can see that the re-eval is still at the beginning of a process. By now most everyone knows what this means and how it effects the economy, inflation, and the resulting price of the dinar. There still seems to be two options as to what this initial process means. They (CBI) intend to take the price of the dinar up in a gradual manner and there will be no "bold adjust". Or, they will in the short term, RV the currency consistent with other countries and their financial means to support the currecny at a higher level. Of course the second option is what we all want. And, many think that this "bold adjust" "should happen". But we will have to accept which ever way the CBI intends to take us, we have no control over this issue. I for one have always found myself "wrong" when I get upset about somethig in the world that is not how I think it "should" be. Wasted emotions. Like part of the alcoholic prayer, "accept the things you cannot change". But in any case, the RV is taking shape and whichever direction they (CBI) take, what they have been doing is excactly what you would expect wheather they take it up gradually, or there is an adjustment to real market and value levels. So, what we are seeing does not PRECLUDE a real adjustment in the exchange level to previous levels. i.e. "bold adjust". What they are doing diminishes their liability and reduces the base money supply.And makes it easier for the CBI to support an RV at the higher levels. This slower process also gives the world and Iraqi people time to adjust to the idea that their currency is not at a "fixed" rate. EXACTLY what we would want them to do prior to a larger rise in the exchange rate. Regardless of the speed at which they raise they level of dinar, its becoming just a matter of time. This (time) is the only variable we might disagree on and the only options available to the CBI. The currency is/will rise and we all have made an astute investment. They need to increase the peoples purchasing power so as to allow them to purchase imported goods. Presently, they can not. If they have no purchasing power, then imported goods will not enter the country. So something has to give, the rise in the exchange rate allows more spending on foreign goods and will stimulate more goods moving into the economy to buy. Things will get cheaper for them. An intangible variable is the rise in confidence and well being within the country. One more auction this week and we'll probably see something similiar to what has happenned over the last two weeks. Thank You.

Thank you for your analysis. I do have some questions/comments as to how all of this relates one to another. Trying to keep emotions out of the mix, with all of the laws ie fil, hcl, having an internationally traded currency etc. coming into play, can they really open up their economy with a dinar rate where it is right now (or close to it)?

I mean really, if they open up their ISX to the outside world with a dinar rate in the 1300 - 1400 = 1usd range, doesn't that open themselves up for potential disaster? The big players from all of the world will join forces for a feeding frenzy on the country of Iraq. Wouldn't you if you had the money? Image one of if not the richest nations in all of the ME going for 1/10 of a cent on the dollar. Could you, would you, resist the temptation to go in and buy everything in sight realizing that they only way for it to go is up?

I guess what I am saying is, in your opinon, would you agree they really don't have much of a choice other than to r/v and r/v substantially or else risk all of the nations/large investors of the world coming in and randsacking their economy. Speak about economic shock, when their economy goes from where it is today to perhaps doubling, tripling, dare I say quadroupling practically overnight, do you really think the cbi could effectively manage this sudden influx of cash practically over night?

Granted the counter argument has been that since a loaf of bread costs 1500 dinar and a pair of shoes costs 15,000 dinars then you really can't buy up the country on the cheap. Oh, really? How much money is 15,000 dinar in usd? Pretty cheap by world standards. If Iraqis work for between 1 and 2 dollars a day, What international corp wouldn't want to come and build factories realizing they can hire some of the most educated workforce in the ME for pennies on the dollar as compared to the surrounding countries.

People are concerned about security as they should be. And as documented by the news their enemies have a lot of bullets. But in addition to fighting bullets with bullets, they will have to try and overcome a virtual tsunami of dollars pouring in from hundreds if not thousands of internationsl corps as well as other countries coming with billions and billions of dollars in hand invading their country in the quest of profit. When the flood gates are opened legally by the implentation of the pending (passed?) international laws, they really don't have much of a choice other than to r/v and r/v substantially do they?

When the international investors see that their money won't be confiscated, (when their currency is traded in the international market, listed on the forex) then in the currency markets the dinar will become "paper gold" and the cbi will be hard pressed to control the undoubtedly to come wild fluctuations due to buying and selling by the big players and multinational corps entering into Iraq if they don't r/v substantially wouldn't you think?

If they are going with their stated goals of overcoming the dollarization phenom, raising the dinar where it was before, making the dinar the currency of choice among their people, combating inflation, then they are going to have to raise it and raise it big if they were serious about acheiving their stated goals, aren't they?

Can they really afford to "dribble it out" once their international laws are in place? It is doubtful to me that so far they have had the desired effect of bringing inflation under control yet. They may have reduced it somewhat but the floodgates of international trade haven't opened yet. How do they expect to make their dinar the currency of choice vs the dollar when billions and billions of dollars flood the market place? No one will want to carry wheelbarrels of dinars to do business when they can use much fewer dollars instead.

In summing up, I hope my instincts are correct in some of the above, Hopefully the cbi realizes the potential mentioned above and decides to get off the pot and r/v their currency at a decent rate (.30+ is a decent place to start IMO) and then control the rise from there to the Saddam rate and above or at least to where it was before. Isn't it time for the artificial "program rate" to come off and allow the dinar to appreciate to where it rightfully belongs? If Iraq does indeed desire to become a real country, then it needs it's own real currency that actually has some value to it based on their net worth not some pathetically low artifical rate imposed on them by the world banking system. IMO

Thank you for taking the time to read the above rant,

worf

Originally Posted by hightide3016

Plus, if they did a reprint, all countries and investors would lose all faith in them. It would be a death blow to their country.

IMO the death blow would be not dealing with domestic inflation and the security issues. The CBI is doing all the right things to check the inflation. It's just going to take a bit of time to see the real effects in the economy. The other shoe of this scenario is the security issue. The main reason for the inflation rise is the lack of commodities in the local markets. Until goods and services can flow freely in the economy, inflation will continue to be a problem.
Funny that Bush would delay his press conference to announce the new strategy for Iraq until after Maliki convenes the National Reconciliation Conference on the 16th. All the while, Maliki has postponed the NRC until he could conclude the details of the ICI. Maliki now has a bargaining chip with the political opposition in his government.

Bush expected to reveal his plan for Iraq in early 2007

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - White House official said on Tuesday that it is likely to postpone the American President George W. Bush unveiled a new strategy on Iraq until early 2007 instead of declaring the end of this year as originally intended.

A senior official, speaking on condition of not disclose his name, "now likely" to announce the plan in the new year.

In the face of growing pressure to change the approach in the war in Iraq, which does not examine Bush unpopular recommendations study group led by Iraq, former Foreign Minister James Baker and former member of Congress Lee Hamilton.

The report calls on the group to accelerate the training of Iraqi forces and the withdrawal of American combat forces by early 2008.

The Bush administration also conducted several audits other. Bush held a conference via closed-circuit television today with the American military commanders in Baghdad and his team on national security.

The official said the American figure that the American administration is inclined to declare the change in strategy in January in January that "there is still work to be done" and because the objective is to get a good plan and notice is not fulfilled.

He added that "this is not an indication of the existence of confusion. This indicator of the strength of resolve of the President. "

Front «consensus» demanding fresh elections under international supervision
(Voice of Iraq) - 12 - 13-2006
This issue was sent to a friend

Front «consensus» demanding fresh elections under international supervision ... The reconciliation calls opponents abroad to attend a conference of political forces
Baghdad-Salihi leadership of life-13 / 12 / 06 / /

Front loaded «consensus» Iraqi led by Adnan Al Dulaimi, Secretary General of the Islamic Party «», Tariq Al-Hashmi, Vice President of the Republic, sent a letter to President George W. Bush, gave a number of suggestions to emerge from the crisis. The most prominent of holding early elections under international supervision, and the sectarian and ethnic balance in the organs of the state and deal with the issue of detainees.

In the meantime, the supreme body of the reconciliation and national dialogue invited the Secretary-General of the Arab League, Amr Moussa, noting that the Iraqi ambassador in Dubai, Amman and Cairo bombers invitation opposition figures living in these capitals to participate in the political forces (the third conference of national reconciliation) to be held mid this month.

The deputy member «consensus» Taha told Allahibi «life» «The front loaded Hashemi Letter national refute the idea of standing behind the acts of violence or to support them», he said, pointing out that «year themselves sought on more than one occasion to arrange meetings between the Americans and the leaders of armed groups, but that the Americans were going backwards each time and left with promises». He said : «tried to explain to the American president that the results of the elections held in Iraq early this year, forged the right injustices Arabs year, and the ministries given to the government in the current sovereign, and non-actors, and I pulled out the powers of ministers Decision».

Allahibi He pointed out that the letter containing proposals which «genuine parliamentary elections under international supervision, and the sectarian and ethnic balance in all organs of the State, and the active participation of the Year in decision-making within the government, and deal with the issue of detainees the multinational forces and the Iraqi government.

He continued that the front stressed in its letter to Bush support the political process. «The innocence of blasphemy and takfiri groups, and will provide documents and recordings to demonstrate a link between Iranian intelligence and the supply of these transnational groups with money and weapons and the training of their armed personnel registered within their territory», and stressed that the proposals did not include a change of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, a call to overthrow the government.

The government sources said that the visit to the Hashemite Washington came in the context of Bush sought to settle matters as perceptions «away from the recommendations of the Baker-Hamilton, and orientations of the Democrats to achieve through direct encounters with the leaders of the political process in Iraq».

The sources expected that this visit follows similar visits to Shiite and Kurdish figures and other Sunni «disagreed with the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution», «Islamic Party».

, It confirmed the supreme body of the reconciliation and national dialogue, directed invitation to the Secretary-General of the Arab League, Amr Moussa to participate in a conference political forces scheduled to be held mid this month, and said Nusseir-Ani, the representative of the Presidency of the Republic in the body that it «embarked the invitation dignitaries participating in the Conference. Forefront of the Secretary-General of the Arab League», for pointing out that «the envoy of Moussa Ambassador Ahmed Bin Hali,, he contacted the members of body and assured them that the criticisms addressed to the Conference on behalf of the Arab League does not represent them has not issued by the», and in relation to individuals the invited said - Ani, that the «more than 250 personalities representing political forces participate in the political process and other non-participating States and opposition forces, and armed factions, and and military figures in the former army, will participate in the conference».

He pointed out that «body focused its efforts on personalities abroad in Dubai, Amman, Cairo and Iraqi ambassadors assigned there at the invitation of these figures», and that the body «assured them that the door is open for participation by any person and that it is willing to provide the necessary facilities that will ensure access of guests to Iraq, including providing a private plane ride to Baghdad».

The representative of the Presidency of the Republic that the «guests will be in the protection of the Iraqi government and Dmantna».

He continued that the main axes to be discussed will revolve around the law abolishing the Baath and amending the Constitution, and the former Iraqi army, and members of the former security forces. He pointed to the existence of positive indicators sent by the government on these demands, Maliki was personally attended to the preparatory meeting which preceded the conference.

Originally Posted by worf

Thank you for your analysis. I do have some questions/comments as to how all of this relates one to another. Trying to keep emotions out of the mix, with all of the laws ie fil, hcl, having an internationally traded currency etc. coming into play, can they really open up their economy with a dinar rate where it is right now (or close to it)?

I mean really, if they open up their ISX to the outside world with a dinar rate in the 1300 - 1400 = 1usd range, doesn't that open themselves up for potential disaster? The big players from all of the world will join forces for a feeding frenzy on the country of Iraq. Wouldn't you if you had the money? Image one of if not the richest nations in all of the ME going for 1/10 of a cent on the dollar. Could you, would you, resist the temptation to go in and buy everything in sight realizing that they only way for it to go is up?

I guess what I am saying is, in your opinon, would you agree they really don't have much of a choice other than to r/v and r/v substantially or else risk all of the nations/large investors of the world coming in and randsacking their economy. Speak about economic shock, when their economy goes from where it is today to perhaps doubling, tripling, dare I say quadroupling practically overnight, do you really think the cbi could effectively manage this sudden influx of cash practically over night?

Granted the counter argument has been that since a loaf of bread costs 1500 dinar and a pair of shoes costs 15,000 dinars then you really can't buy up the country on the cheap. Oh, really? How much money is 15,000 dinar in usd? Pretty cheap by world standards. If Iraqis work for between 1 and 2 dollars a day, What international corp wouldn't want to come and build factories realizing they can hire some of the most educated workforce in the ME for pennies on the dollar as compared to the surrounding countries.

People are concerned about security as they should be. And as documented by the news their enemies have a lot of bullets. But in addition to fighting bullets with bullets, they will have to try and overcome a virtual tsunami of dollars pouring in from hundreds if not thousands of internationsl corps as well as other countries coming with billions and billions of dollars in hand invading their country in the quest of profit. When the flood gates are opened legally by the implentation of the pending (passed?) international laws, they really don't have much of a choice other than to r/v and r/v substantially do they?

When the international investors see that their money won't be confiscated, (when their currency is traded in the international market, listed on the forex) then in the currency markets the dinar will become "paper gold" and the cbi will be hard pressed to control the undoubtedly to come wild fluctuations due to buying and selling by the big players and multinational corps entering into Iraq if they don't r/v substantially wouldn't you think?

If they are going with their stated goals of overcoming the dollarization phenom, raising the dinar where it was before, making the dinar the currency of choice among their people, combating inflation, then they are going to have to raise it and raise it big if they were serious about acheiving their stated goals, aren't they?

Can they really afford to "dribble it out" once their international laws are in place? It is doubtful to me that so far they have had the desired effect of bringing inflation under control yet. They may have reduced it somewhat but the floodgates of international trade haven't opened yet. How do they expect to make their dinar the currency of choice vs the dollar when billions and billions of dollars flood the market place? No one will want to carry wheelbarrels of dinars to do business when they can use much fewer dollars instead.

In summing up, I hope my instincts are correct in some of the above, Hopefully the cbi realizes the potential mentioned above and decides to get off the pot and r/v their currency at a decent rate (.30+ is a decent place to start IMO) and then control the rise from there to the Saddam rate and above or at least to where it was before. Isn't it time for the artificial "program rate" to come off and allow the dinar to appreciate to where it rightfully belongs? If Iraq does indeed desire to become a real country, then it needs it's own real currency that actually has some value to it based on their net worth not some pathetically low artifical rate imposed on them by the world banking system. IMO

Thank you for taking the time to read the above rant,

worf

WOW! Very well thought out!

Cheers!
DayDream

The entire clan leaders in Mahmoudia, Yusufiyah and Latifiyah governance and that the innocent citizens are paying the price for the terrorist operations and expressed the hope successfully draft national reconciliation. They had their first meeting in the number of army commanders and the multinational forces and Kaemmegam Mahmoudia that unemployment is the main reason people turn into terrorists.

Since the terrorist cells of the citizens pay money to put the bombs and firing at the Iraqi forces and other terrorist activities. He said Colonel Ali : he wanted to inform the terrorists that the fourth brigade, Task six Iraqi army will not stop pursuing and arresting terrorists. For his part discussed Kaemmegam Mahmoudia supporter Fadel Al-Shebli national reconciliation and said : that the Iraqis have suffered so much in the past and that the leaders meeting today is designed to help the citizens and we must follow the initiative of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. On their part, talked with many of those present, from Mahmoudia and Latifiyah and Youssifiyah governance and the hand of the security situation and stated that unemployment was the reason the foundation to turn people into terrorists as terrorist cells push for the citizens to put the bombs and shooting at Iraqi forces and the coalition forces, to businesses, and other terrorist activities. He said Abu Ammar from the local Mahmoudia : that their mission is to serve the Iraqis from Mahmoudia to Fallujah and asked the tribal leaders that they could stop the entry of strangers to their villages because they were abusing people, as soon as the end of this threat will not need armed men in the city and has continued a tradition of going to drink tea anywhere with the different individuals of any tribe and said : We series, one can not Ntjza. He explained the important point is that the attack in Mahmoudia resulted in the killing of children and women. He said Colonel Ali Fariji Brigade Commander IV : The security in the Mahmoudia improvement in the last three years, but still have a long way to go to improve the security situation, this will require the assistance of citizens in the region and all the people who have an effective impact which
All Iraq - Karim Buthaina

Egyptian Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said that the negotiations between the central government and the government of Kurdistan on file oil and governmental budget (not to stumble, it continues), pointing out that Kurdistan is part of Iraq, which depends on Baghdad and therefore must be talks on the budget, the share of the Territories. .

Zebari explained that there is a dispute on the quota for the territories, because the political agreements provide for the monitoring of 18% of the budget of the provinces, while the current level of payment does not exceed 13%. Regarding the signing of the Kurdistan oil contracts with some international companies Finally, without referring to the government, Zebari said the presence of talks between Irbil and Baghdad (to reach a compromise satisfactory to both parties), he said, pointing out that the solution is that the central government's representation in these negotiations and negotiations are under way with any company without the participation of the central government. He pointed out that negotiations on the oil contracts also include (the territorial government is concerned to settle any disagreement on the oil contracts), but stressed that the (oil wealth belongs to the people), according to the Iraqi Constitution. In response to the announcement by some Arab officials expressed their fear that the signing of Kurdistan oil contracts, as well as the southern region of Iraq, to the division of Iraq into statelets would affect the oil sector of Iraq and the world, he pointed out that (no one calls for secession or partition, and that the political headquarters constitutionally given the right to the territorial government to have a kind of autonomy in the oil, and give the Constitution the province the right to manage the funds generated from oil if extracted from the province). He attributed Zebari directed international companies to invest in Kurdistan without other Iraqi territory, the province faces no security problems such as those faced by the center and south of Iraq

Originally Posted by day dreamer

Announcement No.(825)

D.G. of Foreign Exchange Control

The 825 daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq day Wednesday 2006 / 12/ 13 so the results were as follows :

Details Notes
Number of banks 10 -----
Auction price selling dinar / US $ 1414 -----
Auction price buying dinar / US $ ------ -----
Amount sold at auction price (US $) 17.125.000 -----
Amount purchased at Auction price (US $) ------
Total offers for buying (US $) 17.125.000 -----
Total offers for selling (US $) ------ -----





D.G. of Investments

Daily price Bulletin buying and selling Wednesday 2006/12/13

Currency
Currency Code
Selling Price In IQD
Buying Price In IQD

US Dollar
USD
1416.000
1415.292

European Euro
EUR
1873.793
1872.856

Sterling Pound
GBP
2783.148
2781.756

Canadian Dollar
CAD
1226.399
1225.786

Swiss Frank
CHF
1177.057
1176.469

Sweetish Krone
SEK
207.710
207.606

Norwegian Krone
NOK
230.053
229.938

Denmark Krone
DKK
251.367
251.241

Japanese Yen
JPY
12.087
12.081


The above price represent reference rate and does not from any commitment on the Central Bank of Iraq.

It seems to me, sooner or later, they are going to reach the point of "diminishing reurns" where those who are holding dinar calculate the cost of waiting to exchange versus running out of patience and exchanging at the current value of 1414 or whatever rate has been established. Of course, the law of "diminishing returns" applies to both sides of the equation, both the CBI and investor have a point at which it is no longer valuable enough for them to wait. The investor waiting to exchange, and the CBI making it attractive enough for those practicing patience to bring their investment in. The initial revalue rate is the last ditch effort to pull as much dinar in as possible, because based on what we all know about Iraq's resources, if they use that in the equation to calculate its value, the dinar will increase in value from its initial revaluation and will therefore cost the CBI more to redeem.