Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Iraq oil law talks delayed

Iraq oil law talks delayed

Read my lips, RV right-now!

Reuters, December 13, 2006
An Iraqi government committee drafting an oil law has failed to agree whether regions or the centre should sign deals on foreign investment and it is up to political leaders to find a solution, sources said.

'We are trying to reach a compromise formula,' he said. ( Really? )

The contracts issue is vital to Iraq's future as a solution favouring the regions would devolve power over its most valuable resources to the majority Shi'ites and the Kurds, who inhabit regions with oilfields, weakening the central government.

'The law now awaits more talks between the Iraqi government and the Kurdish region,' Oil Ministry spokesman Asim Jihad said.

The industry desperately needs foreign investment to revive the shattered economy, which relies heavily on oil export revenues. Iraq sits on the world's third largest crude reserves.

Minority Sunni Arabs, who were the dominant group under Saddam Hussein before the US-led invasion in 2003, fear regional devolution will leave them with nothing.

Even though the Shi'ites are dominant in the southern region also containing major oilfields, they have so far also opposed the Kurdish stance in the talks.

'The first round of the talks has failed, now we are waiting for the second round,' a senior oil industry source said.

The Oil Committee which includes the oil minister, has agreed on more than 90 per cent of the law.

Salih, who said talks would resume in a few days, was hopeful the Iraqi officials would overcome their differences. (AH ha, there is some HOPE!)

He said the committee had agreed on oil revenue sharing and on restructuring of the industry, which he called key issues.

'We have not failed. The talks will resume in few days, the oil law is the priority for the government,' he said.

Iraqi officials have always said that the law will be delivered to the parliament to ratify by the end of December. (Really now, are we being baited?)

Salih said officials were working hard to meet the deadline.

Originally Posted by kiko

$ 11 billion losses from Iraq sabotage oil installations
(Voice of Iraq) - 12 - 13-2006

An official source in the Iraqi Oil Ministry told «life» that the loss resulting from the oil export pipeline through the northern outlet of sabotage and bombings, have exceeded $ 11 billion since the beginning of 2004 until the first half of this year, also hit a cease-export operations through the northern outlet for the same period the year and eight months because of this sabotage operations.

According to the source, those breaks led to the loss of Iraq's export revenues amounted to 8.676 billion dollars, according to the annual export of performing the northern estimated at 300 thousand barrels per day, depending on the rate of net price of Iraqi crude each year. He pointed out that these pipelines and oil installations in the northern region of sabotage and unfitness United discharge crude oil to performing southern Iraq led to the denial of the possibility of pumping 410 thousand barrels a day by almost Line Strategic south.

He pointed out that the estimates of the loss of Iraq in 2004 and interrupted pumping 187 daily hit 1.772 billion dollars in 2005, 284 days, resulting in a financial loss estimated at 3.877 billion dollars. He also said that the acts of sabotage increased rates during the first half of this year, reaching days, which stopped the export pipelines for 180 days resulted in the loss of Iraq is estimated at 3.026 billion dollars.

Sotaliraq.com

Big OUCH!!! Thanks for the info, Kiko, but this is one reason the Iraqis may not back their currency rate with oil futures. Extremely risky for them to do so right now.

Beckett backs Iraq policy review

Mrs Beckett agreed that the situation was grave
The UK foreign secretary has said the time is right to reassess Iraq policy, but added the country does not have to slide into "gloom and disaster".
Margaret Beckett criticised "incessant harping" about the worst, telling the BBC it was "absolutely possible" that Iraq could become stable and unified.

However it was right to reassess policy although there was no "magic formula".

She added that the future of Iraq was "in large part" in Iraqis', and its neighbouring countries', hands.

A report published last week by the US cross-party Iraq Study Group said the situation there was "grave" and "deteriorating".

Baghdad attacks

It recommended the US should talk to Iran and Syria, while shifting its own efforts towards the support and training of the Iraqi armed forces.

Asked whether she agreed with the group's findings, she said: "Certainly nobody disputes... that the position is grave and that there are times when it is clearly deteriorating and then there are times when it improves.

"We're certainly going through one of those bad times at present and no-one is disputing that at all."

I know that all the talk is of division, of civil war of the splitting up of Iraq. There's nothing in the present circumstances that actually mean that that has to be the outcome

Margaret Beckett

She said the situation in Baghdad, where there were up to 70 attacks a day, was "unquestionably extremely difficult".

But about 80% of the violence in Iraq was limited to four of 18 provinces, she said, and in many parts of Basra things were improving.

"I know that all the talk is of division, of civil war of the splitting up of Iraq. There's nothing in the present circumstances that actually mean that that has to be the outcome," she said.

She said with political will in Iraq and among its neighbours and a determination to avoid the "potential worst scenario" from the ISG report it was possible Iraq could be a stable, unified democracy.

Calls for update

"The future of Iraq is in large part in their hands it is also in the hands of some of their neighbours.

"We are doing what we can to make sure the outcome is the better one for the people of Iraq and not the potential gloom and disaster that could, if you were right, not be a very good outcome for them," she said.

Referring to comments made by outgoing UN secretary general Kofi Annan, that the situation in Iraq was now worse than civil war, she said he had "spoken in strong terms on the brink of his retirement."

"He's a man of wisdom and great experience and he clearly feels very passionately about this issue," she said.

But she said while she respected his opinions, she was more interested in helping to improve the situation than "endless repetition" about war critics being "right from the beginning".

Shadow foreign secretary William Hague has called for an update from the government in the wake of the US report, which recommended US combat forces be withdrawn by 2008.

Mrs Beckett said the prime minister would reflect on the ISG report and comment upon it in his own time

Australian officials back U.S. on Iraq By GEORGE GEDDA, Associated press Writer
Tue Dec 12, 9:23 PM ET



WASHINGTON - Australia's foreign minister said Tuesday his country will remain unwavering in its support for the United States in Iraq, despite the war's unpopularity among Americans.

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"We stick by our mates through thick and thin," Alexander Downer said with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice standing at his side at a news conference.

Support from Downer and Australian Defense Minister Brendan Nelson, attending talks with U.S. officials, came as a welcome respite for a Bush administration reeling from a daily barrage of criticism over its management of the Iraq war.

Downer used the word "disastrous" three times in assessing the consequences of a precipitous U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and the impact it would have in the anti-terror struggle.

"And that's one message that we have delivered to the Americans. I know it's not a very popular message, but we can't always just be popular. We have to try to work out what the right thing to do is," Downer told reporters.

Australia sent 2,000 troops to back American and British forces in the 2003 Iraq invasion. It now has about 600 troops inside Iraq, 450 of whom are providing support for Iraqi security forces in two southern provinces. The remainder are guarding Australian diplomats in Baghdad, training Iraqi troops or disarming explosives.

"Basically, with our mates, we don't go around bagging them for the convenience of headlines," Downer said.

Rice rejected a suggestion by a reporter that the United States may be disappointed that Australian troops in Iraq are not playing more of a front-line role.

"I would never use the word 'disappointment' in the same line with Australia," Rice countered

Originally Posted by DinarLady

Munny,

Is it me or have you upped the anti?? I thought your gradual increase prediction wasn't as profound as what you have written here. I can certaintly wait 6 months for .31. That would be just awesome! My impression was that we would be lucky to get a .01 by the end of 2007. Have you changed your prediction??

No, I have not upped the ante. From day one of this I've known the IQD is vastly undervalued and easily had it going from one cent up to 50 cent and early on even higher. As I went on I figured 50 to 70 cents. Then about 3 months ago I looked at the hard financials of Iraqs neighbors. I'm convinced they want to move their exchange rate to the level of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE which are also fellow OPEC members (each at around the .27 mark). My predictions have changed slightly with newer news. But as far as giving a timeline, that with Iraq is like banging your head against a wall. The best I can do is say it can go up rather rapidly as wealth has an exponetial potential when it is truely unleashed. If the new steps can control the security situation I fully believe that 6 months to a year could crack even up to .10 or higher. All we can really do is continue searching for clues and have some fun with the investment aspect of it. Tough to do with all the violence involved, true.

Make Oil clinches lucrative deal to build refinery in Iraqi Kurdistan
Make Oil clinches lucrative deal to build refinery in Iraqi Kurdistan
By Michael Bluhm
Daily Star, December 13, 2006
BEIRUT: Lebanon's Make Oil Company is expected to start building a $3 billion oil refinery in Iraqi Kurdistan within one month, company management told The Daily Star on Tuesday.

The firm expects to sign a contract with the Iraqi Natural Resources Ministry in about three weeks and can start construction immediately in Dhouk, near Irbil, Make Oil general manager Ahmad Kheireddine said.

Construction should last between two and three years, and once completed the refinery will be able to handle 250,000 barrels per day, said Make Oil lead engineer Mahmoud Darwish. The company's investors for the Kurdistan refinery hail from the Gulf, Europe and the United States.

Make Oil has also proposed to build a smaller refinery in Dhouk that can launch operations in nine months, while work on the bigger facility continues, Kheireddine said.

Make Oil is also among the bidders to build a $2.2 billion refinery in Basra. That project would take about two and a half years to finish,and would have a capacity of 150,000 barrels per day, Darwish said.

Make Oil's biggest problem in completing the Basra deal is getting to Basra - because of the sectarian conflict in Iraq, company executives are unwilling to travel there to finish negotiating the deal. But Kheireddine expressed hope that the contract would be signed in two or three months if the situation allowed it.

In Kurdistan as in Basra, Make Oil has faced fierce competition from Gulf oil firms, many of which enjoy vast financial resources and experience. The Lebanese say their good relationships with the ministry and the Kurds have helped their cause, and they are eager to build factories and public-works projects in Kurdistan.
The Daily Star - Lebanon - The Middle East's Leading English Newspaper

The raging war in Iraq has not affected Make Oil's work, nor should the refinery be a target for attack, officials said.

"There's no danger in Kurdistan," Kheireddine said. "It's a separate territory. We're not taking a risk."

Make Oil officials also brushed aside talk of Kurdistan becoming an independent country - Turkey and the US will not allow the Kurds to secede, according to Make Oil deputy general manager Samer Zeitoun.

"This won't happen," Zeitoun said. "Even if this happens, we won't have any problem."

The Kurdistan project will be the first refinery built by Make Oil, which has offices in Germany, Spain, England, Sudan and Syria.

Aside from the Iraqi quagmire, oil prices will continue to climb for a long time thanks to China's strong economic growth, Kheireddine said.

"The Chinese need for oil is increasing," he said.

Despite the recent softness on the market, prices should rise again before the end of the year, Kheireddine said. A barrel of crude cost about $61 when trading opened Tuesday morning, down 20 percent for the year, but up about $5 per barrel since mid-November.

Smells like an RV!

Originally Posted by Wm.Knowles

Hello everyone. First, I would like to thank Socata 850s for posting each morning, this gives us an update on each days auction. It is very helpful.
We can see that the re-eval is still at the beginning of a process. By now most everyone knows what this means and how it effects the economy, inflation, and the resulting price of the dinar. There still seems to be two options as to what this initial process means. They (CBI) intend to take the price of the dinar up in a gradual manner and there will be no "bold adjust". Or, they will in the short term, RV the currency consistent with other countries and their financial means to support the currecny at a higher level. Of course the second option is what we all want. And, many think that this "bold adjust" "should happen". But we will have to accept which ever way the CBI intends to take us, we have no control over this issue. I for one have always found myself "wrong" when I get upset about somethig in the world that is not how I think it "should" be. Wasted emotions. Like part of the alcoholic prayer, "accept the things you cannot change". But in any case, the RV is taking shape and whichever direction they (CBI) take, what they have been doing is excactly what you would expect wheather they take it up gradually, or there is an adjustment to real market and value levels. So, what we are seeing does not PRECLUDE a real adjustment in the exchange level to previous levels. i.e. "bold adjust". What they are doing diminishes their liability and reduces the base money supply.And makes it easier for the CBI to support an RV at the higher levels. This slower process also gives the world and Iraqi people time to adjust to the idea that their currency is not at a "fixed" rate. EXACTLY what we would want them to do prior to a larger rise in the exchange rate. Regardless of the speed at which they raise they level of dinar, its becoming just a matter of time. This (time) is the only variable we might disagree on and the only options available to the CBI. The currency is/will rise and we all have made an astute investment. They need to increase the peoples purchasing power so as to allow them to purchase imported goods. Presently, they can not. If they have no purchasing power, then imported goods will not enter the country. So something has to give, the rise in the exchange rate allows more spending on foreign goods and will stimulate more goods moving into the economy to buy. Things will get cheaper for them. An intangible variable is the rise in confidence and well being within the country. One more auction this week and we'll probably see something similiar to what has happenned over the last two weeks. Thank You.

Excellent write up, Knowles. Keep in mind the CBI is in a trial period. Once they see what the effect of raising the value has they could indeed speed up the process. Either way it is going up and that's what all of us want. This is great news for all and we are in a VERY critical phase of this investment. The electricity in the air about it is high and exciting!!!

Kurds warn White House not to adopt Baker-Hamilton report

Kurds warn White House not to adopt Baker-Hamilton report
By Mohammed A. Salih and Jamal Ekhtiar
The Kurdish Globe, December 12, 2006

Groups of Turkomans and Arabs in the city oppose that and call for Kirkuk to be given the special status of a separate federal region.

President of the Kurdistan Region dismissed the report by the Iraq Study Group (ISG) as "unrealistic and inappropriate" and lashed out at the major recommendations of the group, saying it will endanger Iraq's territorial integrity and that Kurds will "in no way abide" by it.

The furious reaction by Massoud Barzani came two days after the report by the ISG, co-chaired by former U.S. Secretary of State James Baker III and former Democratic Congressman Lee Hamilton, was released last Wednesday.

The report described the situation in Iraq as "grave and deteriorating" and made 79 recommendations to President George W. Bush on Iraq and wider Middle East problems. (Moto Notes: Lies-Lies-Lies!)

"We think that the Iraq Study Group has made some unrealistic and inappropriate recommendations for helping the U.S. to get out of these (Iraq) difficulties," Barzani said in his sharply worded statement released last Friday.

"If under this pretext, these inappropriate recommendations are imposed on us, we declare, on behalf of the people of Kurdistan, that we reject anything that is against the constitution and the interest of Iraq and Kurdistan."

Barzani considered the ISG's failure to visit Kurdistan during the nine months that they were preparing the report "a major shortcoming that adversely influenced the credibility of the (ISG) assessment."

He threatened that Kurds will seek independence should the White House implement key proposals by the Baker-Hamilton report on Kirkuk, federalism, changes in the constitution, and control of oil resources.

"The part of the report that calls for postponing the implementation of the constitutional article (140) on Kirkuk will lead to an explosive situation in the country," Ghafour Makhmouri, a member of Kurdistan Parliament in Arbil, told the Globe.

On Friday, Barzani told a gathering of Kurdish lawmakers and ministers in Baghdad that the real problem in Iraq will arise when Kurds feel there are parties hindering Kirkuk's annexation to Kurdistan.

Groups of Turkomans and Arabs in the city oppose that and call for Kirkuk to be given the special status of a separate federal region.

Kurds are also against a major recommendation of the report that cautions against Iraq's devolution into three regions. Along with Shias, they advocate federalism on ethnic and sectarian bases.

They disapprove major changes to the constitution as well that might imperil their gains of federalism, "normalizing Kirkuk situation" and control of oil resources.

Iraq's President, Jalal Talabani, also a Kurd, expressed support for the statement by the Kurdish regional president and branded the report's recommendations as "dangerous".

The ISG's 96-page report advises Bush to launch a New Diplomatic Offensive and engage Iraq's neighboring countries, including Iran and Syria and Turkey, to help the U.S. resolve Iraq's tense situation.

"Politically, Iran and Syria scored a victory over the U.S., and the report's recommendation to negotiate with them is an undeniable proof for that," Kamal Saadi, Head of Law Department in Arbil's Salahaddin University told the Globe.

"It is these neighboring countries that do not let Iraq administer itself. They disrupt the country's security and political situation and help terrorists infiltrate into Iraq and are settling their old scores with America on Iraq's soil."

Kurds fear the neighboring countries' involvement in Iraqi affairs will negatively affect their position in the country.

Turkey does not recognize Kurdistan's federal status and has threatened to use military force should Kurds secede from Iraq.

Likewise, Iran and Syria are concerned about Kurds' growing influence and weight in Iraqi politics.

All three countries have sizable Kurdish populations with separatist tendencies, which, they worry, will be inspired by the gains of their fellow Kurds in Iraq.

Amid concerns in Iraq and the U.S. on the report's fate, the Bush administration has shown little willingness so far to adopt the report.

On Thursday, Baker told the U.S. Senate that Bush should treat his report as a whole and not in a selective manner. (Moto notes: Baker is sleeping with an ex-peanut farmer!)

Bush, however, is not considering all points of the report. During a joint news conference with British Prime Minster Tony Blair, one day after the report was released, he made it clear that talking with Iran and Syria is not an option.

Kurds feel they have not been rewarded for their assistance to the U.S. during the war on Iraq and its aftermath. They fear the ISG report, if implemented, will practically lead to a situation similar to 1975, when after the Algeria Accord between Iran and Iraq, Kurdish self-rule in northern Iraq collapsed and hundreds of thousands of people were displaced.

"Such positions (in the report) are against the concepts of democracy and human rights that America calls for," Makhmouri noted.

"It will damage America's credibility among the peoples who count on its help for their liberation."

GO Kurds Go!

Help US RV the IQD!

Baker-HAM Plan

Ok, After trying eyes and serious thought (and 100's of Complaints). I believe it is best to raise the Standards of Posting in this Thread NOW!!!!! From here on out any Post that is not with in the Topic and is less then 50 plus Words, it will be moved to either Archive or the Crazy threads. And I or the other Mods will Only move so many times. Thanks to all you posters, but put more effort into your post. I Thank you all for your Input and Comments. But I feel this needs to be done NOW as Hopfully we are Closing In. if you just want to go Off Topic and just Post to be Posting, Please Utilize the other Threads from here on out. And use the Thanks Button instead of these 1 and 5 word post.

Bush Talks Iraq Strategy With Talibani, Barzani

Bush Talks Iraq Strategy With Talibani, Barzani

Dow Jones, December 13, 2006

WASHINGTON - Continuing a recent round of talks with Iraqi leaders, President George W. Bush spoke Wednesday with Iraqi President Jalal Talibani and Kurdistan regional president Massoud Barzani.

White House spokesman Tony Snow said Bush discussed his ongoing review of U.S. strategy in Iraq, the results of which he's expected to unveil next month. During the two 15-minute conversations, Bush sought Talibani and Barzani's views on the way forward in Iraq.

The president's high-profile review of Iraq strategy has included talks this month with Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, a Sunni, and Abdul-Aziz al- Hakim, the leader of the largest Shiite bloc in the Iraqi parliament.

Talibani recently assailed the Iraq Study Group's recommendations on curbing the bloodshed in Iraq, calling the panel's report "an insult to the people of Iraq." Snow said Talibani did not repeat that view during his conversation with Bush.

In addition to discussing broad Iraq strategy, the leaders talked about efforts to reach an agreement on Iraq's hydrocarbon law . That law, which would govern the distribution of oil and natural gas revenue, is hung up over specifics of how the money would be divided among Iraq's different factions. The law is crucial for Iraq as a basis for international oil companies to begin discussions on investment into the country's underexploited and run-down hydrocarbon sector and to generate much-needed reconstruction revenue for the country's coffers.

"We've talked in recent days about a moderate bloc that has Sunni, Shia and Kurdish leaders, and both men fit into that moderate bloc and pledged their cooperation, not merely in building broader support for the government but also taking action against those who want to destabilize it through acts of terror," Snow said of Talibani and Barzani.

-By Henry J. Pulizzi, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9256; henry.pulizzi@ dowjones.com

ICI + FIL+HCL+MoF+CBI/gov = RV

New Math!