Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Beware Of Government, Lawyers, Ad Other Thieves.

FYI... a coworker of mine went to a local Chase branch and ordered more NID today. Exchange rate was .00078290 USD. Looks like Chase is STILL selling. Well, actually, let's first see if they deliver tomorrow.

My coworker just told me he picked up his NID from Chase. A nice large stack of 1K notes.

The Central Bank denies reducing the rate of the dollar against the dinar
The Central Bank denies reducing the rate of the dollar against the dinar
14/12/2006
Source: Translated by IRAQdirectory.com

The Iraqi Central Bank denied rumors on its quest to determine the rate of the American dollar against the Iraqi dinar value of one thousand dinars. Dr. Madhhar Mohammad Saleh, Head of Research and Statistics in the Central Bank, said in a meeting with reporters and Iraqi economists last Sunday: that the issue of determining the exchange rate of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar is not possible, now, for two reasons: first, the reserve capacity of the bank is not absolute, and second is the factor of the price increase.

He added: observing the general trends point to higher prices in return for a lack of improvement, which makes the dollar reduction to this value impossible at the present time, in addition to the limited financial capabilities of the Bank.

He explained: that the significant decline in the dollar, directly after the fall of the previous regime, was caused by the flow of billions of dollars to Iraq and distributing them among employees as well as opening exchange and restrictions. He pointed out: that at the present time and because of the deterioration of security and the high rate of inflation, the devaluation of the dollar is not expected at all.

Violence in Iraq: Chaos or something less?

My newest is at 411mania. Please help me spread the word to support a conservative writer at a decidedly liberal site.

It has become standard fare over the last few months for American media to report on Iraq using terms such as chaos and escalating violence. But is that the whole story?

A remarkable example can be found in a CBS news story that quotes the Editor & Publisher, a media industry trade website:

"Apparently the utter chaos and carnage of the past week has finally convinced some to use 'civil war' without apology," Editor & Publisher reported.

Perhaps not surprisingly, condemnations of President Bush's Iraq strategy became sharper as the 2006 elections approached with some pundits and politicians going so far as to term Iraq un-winnable. The din had one purpose, portray Iraq as a degrading situation that can not be fixed by the same people who got us into this mess, the Bush Administration; therefore vote Democratic. The messaged resonated and it worked. But was it a ploy?

While the level of violence is indeed horrifying and every American loss is a tragedy to all of us, can we make more reasoned conclusions beyond that?

A new report from the Brookings institute released a few days ago breaks down the numbers into trend-lines. One can draw some interesting conclusions based on the data.

Perhaps of most concern to us Americans is the number of US military fatalities. The report has monitored the monthly death totals since March of 2003. The most recent completed monthly total, November of 2006 puts US fatalities (including from non-hostile actions) at seventy in November. This total was down from 105 in October. It is interesting to note that the records are for four successive years and during three of these years (leaving out 2003 because the insurgency had not fully developed) the death rates spike to the highest monthly totals during the month of Ramadan, an Islamic Holy period. And as it happens, in 2006, the Congressional elections occurred during Ramadan feeding the democrats political argument of impending American failure.

It can also be concluded that the Ramadan spike for 2006 was smaller than for the year 2004. The Ramadan spike was higher for 2006 than in 2005 but the increase was statistically insignificant.

So now you may be starting to realize that the rising violence in Iraq prior to the election was not a factor of a situation spinning out of control in some new way foretelling American defeat as the liberals and their media accomplices may have led you to believe. It was a limited, foreseeable escalation due to a twisted sense of honoring Islam among extremists that has happened consistently over the last three years.

Now certainly, that doesn't change the facts that Americans are dying. And to stave off volumes of hate-mail for perceived callousness, I will remind the reader that this author is a former soldier who cares deeply about our men and women in uniform.

If our only concern is that no more Americans die in Iraq, this discussion is meaningless. Of course by that measure of success, we have lost all wars. But if you judge success by achievement of strategic objectives, and if you are a rational person who understands the concept of historical context, you may now be coming to realize that the recent surge in violence does not herald unmitigated disaster and that the level of violence will decrease soon if the trend holds.

Some more interesting data points can be found in the Brookings study. One spreadsheet breaks down the mode of attack used against our troops and lists separately: IEDs, car bombs, RPGs, Rockets and Mortars, and other categories.

The numbers reflect a downward trend over the last year to near zero fatalities for the categories other than IED and "other" which mostly means small arms. So why is that important?

It clearly means that the enemy has lost the will to fight in a force-on-force engagement. It also means the US force protection measures have improved. It likely means the enemy has experienced a reduction of access to tactical explosive weapons. And it probably means a reduction in the enemy's ability to orchestrate a squad or greater sized deliberate attack due to a lack of willing participants. It could be any mix of these, but more than likely all these reasons played a role. The reduction of the enemy's lethality will reduce the number of US fatalities. That is good news and it is counter to the death-watch media's reporting. The US military is winning on the battlefield by changing tactics.

On a side note, to address Congressman Charlie Rangel's claim that minorities bare the brunt of war for America, note the racial breakdown of fatalities. Over 2000 Americans categorized as white have died in Iraq compared to just over 700 for all other races listed. This is a roughly appropriate ratio compared to the general population and certainly does not support Rangel's argument.

Even the Iraqi military and police are fairing better. While fatalities spiked during Ramadan, the trend line shows a steady decrease except for a few outlying months since mid 2005. The numbers show that the latest month (November of 2006) was almost two-thirds less than the high in mid 2005.

And lest we forget why we are fighting this battle against terrorism, the report shows terrorist attacks went up world-wide from 2,800 in 2004 to 11,111 in 2005 with only 30% of those attacks in Iraq. That gives nearly 8,000 terrorist attacks outside of Iraq. Clearly the forces of Islamic extremism are surging around the planet. Now is not the time to appear weak by losing our nerve in Iraq.

In fact, one can conclude from this report that there are only two areas of success for the enemy. First is their ability to cause massive casualties in singular spectacular attacks against Iraqi civilians. There is no doubt that the enemy has improved in the use of this "tactic". The other arena of success has been in manipulating the media, with the aforementioned spectacular attacks, into reporting the imminence of American failure. When people claim we are losing in Iraq, what they are really saying is that although the enemy is losing its lethality, access to effective tactical weapons and willingness to attack in numbers against American forces, our soldiers are losing to these criminals who mostly kill civilians by detonating IEDs. Consider that the next time you hear a democrat claiming we are losing in Iraq.

Originally Posted by clintstella

On the other hand I hope it doesn't mean a return to the official artificial rate of 1471.

Someone please tell me I'm wrong.

I don't think they can go back to an exchange rate that will decrease what little help they have gotten in the value of the dinar.

I think they know they have a problem with the economy of the street vs. economy of the banks. I think thats what this quote is addressing;

He expected to Yasiri, a bank dealers with the auction in a statement to the News Agency (Voices of Iraq) Independent, to witness the auction, the return of normal circulation during the forthcoming meetings due to equal the official exchange rate with the rate of exchange in the local market.

I look at it as the dinar has been held back from it's true value. The withdrawal of even more dinar from the streets the watch is being wound even tighter. The demand for the dinar is increasing, as evidenced by the street price of the dinar. As Wm. Knowles, Shotgunsusie and many others have pointed out "something has got to give".

At least thats what I'm betting on.

International Relations

Iraqi traders entering agreements with their Iranian and Kuwaiti counterparts

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14 December 2006 (Iraq Directory)
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Chairman of the Chamber of Commerce in the Iraqi city of Kirkuk, said that Iraqi traders concluded commercial and economic agreements with a number of Iranian merchants on the sidelines of an exhibition for the reconstruction of Iraq held in Iran at the beginning of last week.

The chairman of the Chamber of Kirkuk, Khalil Ismail Agha, said that high-ranking commercial Iraqi delegation "participated in the conference which was held on the sidelines of the exhibition in the Iranian cities of Tabriz and Kermanshah".

He added that the delegation discussed with the Iranian side "ways of joint cooperation between the Chamber of Commerce and a number of Iraqi traders with their Iranian counterparts, as well as the possibility of developing trade and economic relations between the two countries and ways of participation of Iran in supporting the Iraqi infrastructure through reconstructing a number of economic sectors in the country". Agha pointed out that the Iranian side is interested in" entering the Iraqi market which is considered the main market for importing a large number of goods and commodities and foodstuffs, since Iraq is one of the most important markets that receive such Iranian products". He explained that a number of Iraqi traders "concluded during the exhibition, a number of agreements that will contribute to the arrival of good quantities of different products, which will help to develop the economy and trade exchange between the two neighbors".

On the other hand, a member of the Kuwaiti investors delegation said that the delegation is currently visiting Kurdistan region to discuss investment opportunities and the establishment of a number of important projects in it.

The member of the delegation, Tariq Al-Musawi, of the Kuwaiti public warehouses company, said that the delegation consists of "a number of Kuwaiti companies came to Kurdistan, to explore and discuss investment opportunities in the region".

Al-Musawi said: "We sensed that there are good investment opportunities, and we will sign a preliminary agreement or an understanding memorandum with the competent authorities for the establishment of different storage warehouses, refrigerated, chilled and dry, and a truck parking area". He added: "The intention is to establish an integrated network of storage areas, to give a solution for traders who bring goods to the region". Al-Musawi did not specify the timing of the agreement, or the areas in which they will establish the projects he spoke about.

The delegation of Kuwaiti investors visited Dohuk governorate, and held talks with its governor, Tamr Ramadan, on investment opportunities in the region. The delegation also visited (Zakho) on the Iraqi-Turkish border to get acquainted with the region that have been identified for the establishment of a free trade zone in it.

On his part, Osama Al-Bader, director of the national real estate company in Kuwait and a member of the visiting delegation said: "we now have two projects. One of which includes the development of an area of 104 thousand square meters of land for the construction of a compound in the city of Irbil, consists of a hotel (4 star), a commercial center, a large cinema and apartment buildings", noting that the final cost for this project "amounts to about 100 million dollars".

Originally Posted by eosirl2

You have to ask yourself where does the CBI get all the USD to sell and extract dinar from circulation?

CBI gets the USD to auctions from Govt oil sales, and in turn, the dinar it gets from the banks from the auctions, is paid to the Iraqi Govt (minus a fee for selling the USD), This dinar then is used to pay for the govt expense and projects etc. and thus that dinar is recirculated back into the Iraqi economy.

So bottom-line is, we see one part of the CBI's transaction, but not the other part --- its transaction with the GOI.

So really we can't conclude what the net amount is withdrawn as that would be CBI profit, and the CBI is a non-profit organization.

The CBI stated that's what they are doing to fight inflation, "remove currency", from the economy. I'll take their word for it.

Economy

Raising the dinar to reduce prices in market
Increasing the value of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar may hurt imports but it will help domestic trade.

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14 December 2006 (The Globe)
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The news about the appreciating value of the dinar against the dollar has hit the market in Suleimaniya hard. Many will lose their jobs. People believe that neither the government nor the Central Bank can carry out such a critical decision.

Mr. Ali Abdullah of the Bank of Harem (The Regional Bank) says that attempts to raise the value of the dinar are not something new, but many preparations have been made in order for the plan to go ahead. He says that the decision was made to overcome the economic crises in Iraq.

"To increase the value of the dinar, the government has to increase exports and produce more goods," Mr. Abdullah believes.

Despite the fact that no official spokesperson from the Central Bank has ever issued such a firm decision decreasing the dollar value to 1250 ID from its previous value of 1450 ID has created an unnatural shake in the local markets.

Professor Dr. Narmeen Marouf, an economist, tells the Kurdish Globe that this move from the Central Bank aimed at solving the inflation crated due to the high value of the dollar. "If the value of the dinar goes up, the price of goods will decline sharply; they have been paid off in dollars and are sold in dinars," she says, adding that the Central Bank has also tried before to reduce prices and balance off the supply and demand in the local markets. "As the value of the dinar increases, consumers and the local merchants are the first to benefit."

At the moment, Iraq is not exporting any goods other than oil. Almost all goods in Iraqi markets are imports; hence the inflation, particularly when the value of the dinar declines for having no support, although it is quite possible for a decision as such to be made in order to reduce domestic issues. The decision will have two beneficiary forces - it will help Iraq vie for foreign markets and reduce prices in local ones.

"Since rumours started that the dinar was going to increase in value, many have faced sever financial damages," Kamaran Ali, of Money Mart, says. However, he does not believe in such a decision. "Increasing the value of the dinar" he says, "will not benefit anyone."

After 2003, the Iraqi Central Bank decided to peg the value of the dinar. Primarily, a dollar was equal to 1,450 ID, until the value of the dinar was reduced and a dollar became 1,470 ID, then 1,500, at which the price the value of the dinar seemed to stay still.

Originally Posted by Vipor

I seem to recall a couple of months ago reading an article that indicated the huge allowance that each of these politicians in Iraq receives has to fund all of their activities including paying their own security. Maybe someone can find that article.

I don't have the article but you are correct. These people get $5,000.00 a month for "working", and $7,000.00 for security even though most live in the green zone, so it's beer money.

The arrival quantities of kerosene to the Iranian Sulaymaniyah
Tools of the
Sulaymaniyah - (Voices of Iraq)

The District juvenile Sulaymaniyah today, Thursday, that a group of trucks carrying about 300 thousand liters of kerosene had arrived to preserve coming from the Iranian province of Kermanshah.

The Zana Mohamed Saleh News Agency (Voices of Iraq) Independent that "in the trucks started to reach Sulaymaniyah evening yesterday, Wednesday, and that the first batch within the framework of the agreement that was signed between the two provinces."
He pointed out that "the contract stipulated that the Iranian province of Kermanshah to about 30 million liters of kerosene to Sulaymaniyah within three months."

He added that the agreement was the result of the need to Sulaymaniyah, where oil that poor security situation in Iraq and the repeated attacks on the Iraqi oilfields caused not only by up Kurdistan region of Iraqi oil.

It is noteworthy that this agreement during the visit of the delegation from Sulaymaniyah to Kermanshah province in September last September - was also signed several agreements in the fields of oil, trade and health and school while preserving ties.

It should be noted that Iraq is suffering from a crisis of oil products from time to time, crippling the economic wheel, which forced the government to import from the neighboring countries and the amounts affect on the state budget.

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