Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Originally Posted by thebat$

All people have their own oppinion and prejudices. It is said that our experience determine our response and action. Well maybe this teller doesn't even know where Vietnam is or never reads the news. That might explain her initial reaction to your suggestion. But I would.

Happy r/v!

theBat$

I understand your point but she was the one who said oh your buying currency and so I said yes I am investing in Iraq Dinar and Vietnam Dong. This is the part that kills me I quote "MY FRIENDS ARE INVESTING IN THAT AS WELL"

Some friends if they did not tell her the whole scoop!!!!

Dinar-Excited

Guys...I'm going to attempt again what I tried to say last night, now that I have a clearer head. I just hope I can convey what it is I'm wanting you to see. I will be pulling up past articles old and new, past posts old and new to help illustrate the best I can, so please bear with me ok?

If you recall I said last night that the 1500 IQD figure has been mentioned alot lately, then I found the article...

Oct 12, 2006
A source in the Ministry of Finance stated that Mr. Jabr Al-Zubaidi declared, during his meeting with the Minister of Labor and Social Affairs Mahmmoud Al-Sheikh Radi, the decision of his ministry to specify one billion dollars (that is, one trillion and 500 billion iraqi dinar to help the unemployed set up small projects for themselves to provide a decent living for their families. He said: work of this project will start with the beginning of next year. (This is the equivalent of 1500 IQD/$1

Then we have this article again with the 1500 IQD mentioned, along with another figure that I think has relevance also 1450 IQD

December 2006 13, 2006

The Globe

Increasing the value of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar may hurt imports but it will help domestic trade.......

Despite the fact that no official spokesperson from the Central Bank has ever issued such a firm decision decreasing the dollar value to 1250 ID from its previous value of 1450 ID has created an unnatural shake in the local markets.

"Since rumours started that the dinar was going to increase in value, many have faced sever financial damages," Kamaran Ali, of Money Mart, says. However, he does not believe in such a decision. "Increasing the value of the dinar" he says, "will not benefit anyone."

After 2003, the Iraqi Central Bank decided to peg the value of the dinar. Primarily, a dollar was equal to 1,450 ID, until the value of the dinar was reduced and a dollar became 1,470 ID, then 1,500, at which the price the value of the dinar seemed to stay still.

Now heres an article that REALLY had/has this forum puzzled...

Originally Posted by Adster

BAGHDAD, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Iraq's government expects the dinar to strengthen by 13 percent against the dollar by early 2007 after raising interest rates to limit the use of dollars in the economy and stem inflation, the country's finance minister said. (OK...lets try something here using our 2 figures 1500 X 13%=195... 1500-195=1305 IQD or 1450 X 13%=188.50...1450-188.50=1,261.50 IQD)

Minister Bayan Jabor told Reuters on Monday that the government has targeted an exchange rate to reach 1,260 dinars to the dollar in the first three months of 2007 from the current level of 1,500 to the dollar.

The 2007 $41 billion budget assumes an exchange rate of 1,260 dinars to the dollar, he said, adding the cabinet would discuss the draft budget on Saturday before hopefully sending it to parliament next week.

"There is an expected increase in the value of the dinar. The exchange rate is expected to drop from 1,500 dinars to the dollar to 1,260 in early 2007," he said in an interview.

"We will calculate the budget based on 1,260 dinars to the dollar and based on 50 dollars per barrel (of oil) and production of 1.7 million barrels per day.

"The central bank has started increasing the interest rate from 12 percent and it has now reached 16 percent."

Jabor said there were no immediate plans to raise interest rates further. The central bank increased its main interest rate to 16 percent from 12 percent on Nov. 8, according to the bank's Web site.

He said the aim of raising interest rates was to strengthen the dinar to fight dollarisation -- the use of dollars on a daily basis alongside the local dinar currency -- to stem high inflation and boost Iraqis' confidence in the domestic currency.

"It is to fight dollarisation. Every economy that depends on the dollar is considered weak," he said.

"Now I can say that Iraqis should use dinars instead of dollars. When we increase the value of the dinar it will help ease inflation, which is now at 56 percent. We expect inflation will decrease," he said.

"There is also a psychological factor -- Iraqis need to trust their currency when it is stable or strengthening."

Jabor said he was not worried by possible negative consequences of strengthening the dinar because the Central Bank had enough reserves to support the dinar.

"The dinar is strong -- the central bank is one of the best central banks in the region except for those in the Gulf. We have reserves of $15 billion in foreign currency other than gold, and it is only to support the dinar."

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/Cris...-R5-Alertnet-5


Ok, so we see they used the 1450 IQD rate to arrive at the 1260 ID in the above article.

Now this article...

Big increase in the demand for dollar
Dargham of Muhammad Ali
Baghdad - (Voices of Iraq)

The demand for dollar in the auction the Central Bank of Iraq today, Thursday, recording 60 million and 250 thousand dollars, compared with 17 million and 125 thousand dollars yesterday.
Such requests for the purchase of 22 million and 750 thousand dollars in cash and 37 million and 500 thousand dollars in the form of remittances outside the bank full coverage of exchange rate amounted to 1411 dinars to the dollar, a decline of three dinars on the exchange rate yesterday.

Two of the 15 banks participating in the auction today, the largest number of banks involved in one meeting during the last two months, bids for the sale of $ 200 thousand for the bank bought full exchange rate reached 1409 dinars to the dollar, which is the first since the sale of four meetings.

He expected to Yasiri, a bank dealers with the auction in a statement to the News Agency (Voices of Iraq) Independent, to witness the auction, the return of normal circulation during the forthcoming meetings due to equal the official exchange rate with the rate of exchange in the local market.

ÏæáÇÑ- (ÅÞÊÕÇÏ) :: Aswat al Iraq :: Aswat al Iraq

I believe one of these figures is our official exchange rate being mentioned above... 1500 IQD or the 1450 IQD. As far as the market rate we know that the street market usually sells about 10 dinar above the exchange rate...so lets add that to the 1450=1460 . This may explain the below articles real value rate...

General Budget 2004
Chairman of Managing Council Speech:
Ladies and Gentlemen stockholders of Baghdad Bank:
Iraq had been through some unusual circumstances within the last two years like instability and lack of security that have had a destructive impact on economy, investment and industrial production, but, despite of all that Baghdad Bank achieved a big success during the financial year of 2004 in comparison to the previous financial year and the most important index to that is balancing US dollar price with the current price of 1460 ID

I would to inform all the stockholders of Baghdad Bank that the report of the managing council 2004 was prepared according to the demands of Central Bank of Iraq to balance US dollar price to0.310 ID instead of its real value (1460) ID per 1 US dollar, so, the report and general budget do not necessarily reflect the actual situation of Baghdad Bank and the volume of economical incoming indexes, so, this report was issued in order to meet the demands of the rules and instructions.

Now back to the 1500 and 1450 dinar...heres some past posts mentioning this figures by our members (mentioned many times just pulled these 3)

Inscrutable 11-22-06
An interesting read from a year ago this saturday.

http://www.cges.co.uk/pdf-lib/ChalabiAmman2005.pdf

e) The Iraqi dinar has lost its value. Prior to the war with Iran, it was worth $3.2. The dollar is currently worth around 1500 dinar.
Adster

The former national ("Swiss") dinar notes were used throughout Iraq until the early 1990's, and this national currency still circulated in the Kurdish north. The bills nicknamed "Swiss dinar" either because of their relative stability and strength or because it was made in Europe, depending on the account. The Swiss dinar was trading at about 6.7 to the dollar in early July 2003.

I wanted to point out that in early 2003, the Iraqi dinar was anywhere from 1500:1 to 4000:1 unlike the Swiss dinar in the north which in July was still powering ahead at 6.7:1 against the $..which equates to 0.149$.


flockstar (oops sorry Adster...but I did put him beneath you!

Dinar worth around 1450 to 1USD for most of the last ten years that's a fact.

Now to this article...

Unemployment at 50%, says minister
By Ikhlas Majeed
Azzaman, December 14, 2006

Nearly half of Iraqis able to work are idle, said Minister of Labor and Social Affairs.
Mohamed Radhi said the high jobless rate was devastating to a country torn by sectarian strife and violence.
He said combating unemployment was as important as the fight against ‘terror’. Joblessness plays into the hands of ‘terrorists’, he said.
He said he had drawn a plan to provide short-term loans to families willing to start up their own businesses particularly those who depend on social benefits for a living.
This project will contribute to defeating terror and terrorists who target sources of energy and labor. As a result unemployment has reached more than 50 per cent in some provinces,” he said.
He said he had 100,000 small-sized projects in mind and has urged the government set aside enough allocations to have the scheme in place in 2007.
Each family will be given a loan of 10,000 dinars (approx. $6,600) to start the project, he said.

If we base this 10,000 dinar on the 1500 exchange rate we can get .000666=1501.50 Now lets revisit some thoughts bandied about not to long ago. Was it not suggested maybe removing a zero for easier conversion at the shops and markets. Take the 1500 remove the last zero make it 1.50IQD then we have the .66 rate that will arrive at the above mentioned articles $6,600 or OR lets move the decimal point 3 places to the left (notice no lop here!) and we still have the .66 rate.

PaulieThaGreat furnished this to us...

In early 1988, the official dinar-dollar exchange rate was still Iraqi dinar (ID)1 to US$3.22; however, with estimates of the nation’s inflation rate ranging from 25 percent to 50 percent per year in 1985 and 1986, the dinar’s real transaction value, or black market exchange rate, was far lower-only about half the 1986 official rate. 1986–2003 1986–2003 between .33 cents to 1.32 to a dollar. 2001 Oil-production: 2.452 million bbl/day (2001 est.); note — production was disrupted as a result of the March-April 2003 war (2001 est.) 2002 GDP: purchasing power parity — $58 billion (2002 est.) 2002 Exports–partners:US 40.9%, Canada 8.2%, France 8.2%, Jordan 7.5%, Netherlands 6.4%, Italy 5.4%, Morocco 4.7%, Spain 4.4% (2002) 2003 In october 2003, the official Dinar-dollar exchange rate was ID1 to US$0.00027. 2004–2005 August 2004 till 2005, the official dinar-dollar exchange rate is ID1 to US$0.00068. Population: 25,374,691 (July 2004 est.) 2006 As of Jan 1st 2006, the official Iraqi dinar-US dollar exchange rate is ID1 to US$$0.00067.

The .00068 rate was the official dinar-dollar rate August 2004 till 2005 which was 1470...Strangely that was the rate we were stuck on for so long till it started changing on Nov 7th after the 4 day CBI break with no auctions.

Hope I have clarified what I was TRYING to spit out last night. And I hope it makes more sense to everyone and that some of these articles make better sense to us now. Hopefully from this we can zero in on what the CBI is up to or have I rambled nonsense again. and wasted your time on this LONG POST? I know I have probably made a few mistakes (and that they will be pointed out lol) but hopefully it is a start.
Cheers!
DayDream

Originally Posted by Dinar-Excited

I understand your point but she was the one who said oh your buying currency and so I said yes I am investing in Iraq Dinar and Vietnam Dong. This is the part that kills me I quote "MY FRIENDS ARE INVESTING IN THAT AS WELL"

Some friends if they did not tell her the whole scoop!!!!

Dinar-Excited

She lacks faith in their judgement perhaps, I know a good buddy of mine who is absolutely terrible at finances. If he had asked me too, I probably think its one of his goofy schemes.

However if she was me, I'd dig a bit to get to the source. Lack of initiave won't get us rich!

theBat$

Originally Posted by laurenr

This is something I've thought about alot.

If the bank managers around the world know about the Dinar & hear about
when it's about to R/V first.......... won't they all just buy some, cash
them in, then sit on the beach in the Caymens with the rest of us ?

pssssst..(its cause they dont know) lol and buying currency is not considered insider trading.. some of them may have an idea folks.. but if they knew they would't care what you do with their old employer(the bank) cause they would be partying in the caymens with the rest of you guys..lol:-)

Originally Posted by DayDream

Guys...I'm going to attempt again what I tried to say last night, now that I have a clearer head. I just hope I can convey what it is I'm wanting you to see. I will be pulling up past articles old and new, past posts old and new to help illustrate the best I can, so please bear with me ok?

If you recall I said last night that the 1500 IQD figure has been mentioned alot lately, then I found the article...

Oct 12, 2006
A source in the Ministry of Finance stated that Mr. Jabr Al-Zubaidi declared, during his meeting with the Minister of Labor and Social Affairs Mahmmoud Al-Sheikh Radi, the decision of his ministry to specify one billion dollars (that is, one trillion and 500 billion iraqi dinar to help the unemployed set up small projects for themselves to provide a decent living for their families. He said: work of this project will start with the beginning of next year. (This is the equivalent of 1500 IQD/$1

Then we have this article again with the 1500 IQD mentioned, along with another figure that I think has relevance also 1450 IQD

December 2006 13, 2006

The Globe

Increasing the value of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar may hurt imports but it will help domestic trade.

The news about the appreciating value of the dinar against the dollar has hit the market in Suleimaniya hard. Many will lose their jobs. People believe that neither the government nor the Central Bank can carry out such a critical decision

Mr. Ali Abdullah of the Bank of Harem (The Regional Bank) says that attempts to raise the value of the dinar are not something new, but many preparations have been made in order for the plan to go ahead. He says that the decision was made to overcome the economic crises in Iraq.

"To increase the value of the dinar, the government has to increase exports and produce more goods," Mr. Abdullah believes.

Despite the fact that no official spokesperson from the Central Bank has ever issued such a firm decision decreasing the dollar value to 1250 ID from its previous value of 1450 ID has created an unnatural shake in the local markets.

Professor Dr. Narmeen Marouf, an economist, tells the Kurdish Globe that this move from the Central Bank aimed at solving the inflation crated due to the high value of the dollar. "If the value of the dinar goes up, the price of goods will decline sharply; they have been paid off in dollars and are sold in dinars," she says, adding that the Central Bank has also tried before to reduce prices and balance off the supply and demand in the local markets. "As the value of the dinar increases, consumers and the local merchants are the first to benefit."

At the moment, Iraq is not exporting any goods other than oil. Almost all goods in Iraqi markets are imports; hence the inflation, particularly when the value of the dinar declines for having no support, although it is quite possible for a decision as such to be made in order to reduce domestic issues. The decision will have two beneficiary forces - it will help Iraq vie for foreign markets and reduce prices in local ones.

"Since rumours started that the dinar was going to increase in value, many have faced sever financial damages," Kamaran Ali, of Money Mart, says. However, he does not believe in such a decision. "Increasing the value of the dinar" he says, "will not benefit anyone."

After 2003, the Iraqi Central Bank decided to peg the value of the dinar. Primarily, a dollar was equal to 1,450 ID, until the value of the dinar was reduced and a dollar became 1,470 ID, then 1,500, at which the price the value of the dinar seemed to stay still.

Now heres an article that REALLY had/has this forum puzzled...

Originally Posted by Adster

BAGHDAD, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Iraq's government expects the dinar to strengthen by 13 percent against the dollar by early 2007 after raising interest rates to limit the use of dollars in the economy and stem inflation, the country's finance minister said. (OK...lets try something here using our 2 figures 1500 X 13%=195... 1500-195=1305 IQD or 1450 X 13%=188.50...1450-188.50=1,261.50 IQD)

Minister Bayan Jabor told Reuters on Monday that the government has targeted an exchange rate to reach 1,260 dinars to the dollar in the first three months of 2007 from the current level of 1,500 to the dollar.

The 2007 $41 billion budget assumes an exchange rate of 1,260 dinars to the dollar, he said, adding the cabinet would discuss the draft budget on Saturday before hopefully sending it to parliament next week.

"There is an expected increase in the value of the dinar. The exchange rate is expected to drop from 1,500 dinars to the dollar to 1,260 in early 2007," he said in an interview.

"We will calculate the budget based on 1,260 dinars to the dollar and based on 50 dollars per barrel (of oil) and production of 1.7 million barrels per day.

"The central bank has started increasing the interest rate from 12 percent and it has now reached 16 percent."

Jabor said there were no immediate plans to raise interest rates further. The central bank increased its main interest rate to 16 percent from 12 percent on Nov. 8, according to the bank's Web site.

He said the aim of raising interest rates was to strengthen the dinar to fight dollarisation -- the use of dollars on a daily basis alongside the local dinar currency -- to stem high inflation and boost Iraqis' confidence in the domestic currency.

"It is to fight dollarisation. Every economy that depends on the dollar is considered weak," he said.

"Now I can say that Iraqis should use dinars instead of dollars. When we increase the value of the dinar it will help ease inflation, which is now at 56 percent. We expect inflation will decrease," he said.

Iraq's inflation rate hit 76.6 percent in August.

But sectarian violence is claiming the lives of more than 100 Iraqis a day and threatening to push the country into civil war. The daily violence has scared off foreign investments in the oil rich country.

A recent UN report said there was growing unemployment and poverty rates in Iraq. Corruption is endemic and state owned industries are inefficient. Oil is the main source of revenues but oil sector is suffering from years of mismanagement and violence.

"There is also a psychological factor -- Iraqis need to trust their currency when it is stable or strengthening."

The International Monetary Fund, which has backed Baghdad with a $685 million standby credit agreement, has also warned that rising inflation could undermine economic well-being and hinder the goal of improving the welfare of ordinary Iraqis.

Another problem facing the government is the high rate of unemployment, mainly among the young. Officials say the unemployment rate is between 30 and 40 percent.

Jabor said he was not worried by possible negative consequences of strengthening the dinar because the Central Bank had enough reserves to support the dinar.

"The dinar is strong -- the central bank is one of the best central banks in the region except for those in the Gulf. We have reserves of $15 billion in foreign currency other than gold, and it is only to support the dinar."

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/Cris...-R5-Alertnet-5


Ok, so we see they used the 1450 IQD rate to arrive at the 1260 ID in the above article.

Now this article...

Big increase in the demand for dollar
Dargham of Muhammad Ali
Baghdad - (Voices of Iraq)

The demand for dollar in the auction the Central Bank of Iraq today, Thursday, recording 60 million and 250 thousand dollars, compared with 17 million and 125 thousand dollars yesterday.
Such requests for the purchase of 22 million and 750 thousand dollars in cash and 37 million and 500 thousand dollars in the form of remittances outside the bank full coverage of exchange rate amounted to 1411 dinars to the dollar, a decline of three dinars on the exchange rate yesterday.

Two of the 15 banks participating in the auction today, the largest number of banks involved in one meeting during the last two months, bids for the sale of $ 200 thousand for the bank bought full exchange rate reached 1409 dinars to the dollar, which is the first since the sale of four meetings.

He expected to Yasiri, a bank dealers with the auction in a statement to the News Agency (Voices of Iraq) Independent, to witness the auction, the return of normal circulation during the forthcoming meetings due to equal the official exchange rate with the rate of exchange in the local market.

ÏæáÇÑ- (ÅÞÊÕÇÏ) :: Aswat al Iraq :: Aswat al Iraq

I believe one of these figures is our official exchange rate being mentioned above... 1500 IQD or the 1450 IQD. As far as the market rate we know that the street market usually sells about 10 dinar above the exchange rate...so lets add that to the 1450=1460 . This may explain the below articles real value rate...

General Budget 2004
Chairman of Managing Council Speech:
Ladies and Gentlemen stockholders of Baghdad Bank:
Iraq had been through some unusual circumstances within the last two years like instability and lack of security that have had a destructive impact on economy, investment and industrial production, but, despite of all that Baghdad Bank achieved a big success during the financial year of 2004 in comparison to the previous financial year and the most important index to that is balancing US dollar price with the current price of 1460 ID

Baghdad bank has taken also serious steps towards opening Al-Bayaa branch at the end of 2004 and rented a location for Al-Suliemaniya branch which shall be opened in March 2005 in addition to the expansion of Baghdad bank activities on the international level as it has made banking connections with many international banks. worth mentioning that Baghdad Bank started putting into practice new systems in Mansour, Palestine and Bayaa branches.

Presently such systems are being put into practice in the general center and general management to be spread later on to the other branches. Baghdad Bank has also signed a contract to use (SWIFT) system in external transfers in 2005. This system shall be run during the above mentioned year.
I would to inform all the stockholders of Baghdad Bank that the report of the managing council 2004 was prepared according to the demands of Central Bank of Iraq to balance US dollar price to0.310 ID instead of its real value (1460) ID per 1 US dollar, so, the report and general budget do not necessarily reflect the actual situation of Baghdad Bank and the volume of economical incoming indexes, so, this report was issued in order to meet the demands of the rules and instructions.

Now back to the 1500 and 1450 dinar...heres some past posts mentioning this figures by our members (mentioned many times just pulled these 3)

Inscrutable 11-22-06
An interesting read from a year ago this saturday.

http://www.cges.co.uk/pdf-lib/ChalabiAmman2005.pdf

e) The Iraqi dinar has lost its value. Prior to the war with Iran, it was worth $3.2. The dollar is currently worth around 1500 dinar. Abundant foreign currency reserves are a prerequisite for the government to be able to restore the purchasing power of the Iraqi dinar. One should not forget the old law of the Central Bank of Iraq, which restricted the circulation of the Iraqi dinar to 70% of the country’s gold and foreign currency reserves. This meant that for every 100 dinars issued for circulation, 70 dinars had to be retained in the Central Bank in the form of foreign currencies and gold, in order to support the dinar. This currency regulation provided a guarantee against inflation and for a stable and prosperous economy.
From where are these required financial reserves to be secured?

Adster

The former national ("Swiss") dinar notes were used throughout Iraq until the early 1990's, and this national currency still circulated in the Kurdish north. The bills nicknamed "Swiss dinar" either because of their relative stability and strength or because it was made in Europe, depending on the account. The Swiss dinar was trading at about 6.7 to the dollar in early July 2003.

I wanted to point out that in early 2003, the Iraqi dinar was anywhere from 1500:1 to 4000:1 unlike the Swiss dinar in the north which in July was still powering ahead at 6.7:1 against the $..which equates to 0.149$.


flockstar (oops sorry Adster...but I did put him beneath you!

Dinar worth around 1450 to 1USD for most of the last ten years that's a fact.

Now to this article...

Unemployment at 50%, says minister
By Ikhlas Majeed
Azzaman, December 14, 2006

Nearly half of Iraqis able to work are idle, said Minister of Labor and Social Affairs.
Mohamed Radhi said the high jobless rate was devastating to a country torn by sectarian strife and violence.
He said combating unemployment was as important as the fight against ‘terror’. Joblessness plays into the hands of ‘terrorists’, he said.
He said he had drawn a plan to provide short-term loans to families willing to start up their own businesses particularly those who depend on social benefits for a living.
This project will contribute to defeating terror and terrorists who target sources of energy and labor. As a result unemployment has reached more than 50 per cent in some provinces,” he said.
He said he had 100,000 small-sized projects in mind and has urged the government set aside enough allocations to have the scheme in place in 2007.
Each family will be given a loan of 10,000 dinars (approx. $6,600) to start the project, he said.

If we base this 10,000 dinar on the 1500 exchange rate we can get .000666=1501.50 Now lets revisit some thoughts bandied about not to long ago. Was it not suggested maybe removing a zero for easier conversion at the shops and markets. Take the 1500 remove the last zero make it 1.50IQD then we have the .66 rate that will arrive at the above mentioned articles $6,600 or OR lets move the decimal point 3 places to the left (notice no lop here!) and we still have the .66 rate.
PaulieThaGreat furnished this to us...

In early 1988, the official dinar-dollar exchange rate was still Iraqi dinar (ID)1 to US$3.22; however, with estimates of the nation’s inflation rate ranging from 25 percent to 50 percent per year in 1985 and 1986, the dinar’s real transaction value, or black market exchange rate, was far lower-only about half the 1986 official rate. 1986–2003 1986–2003 between .33 cents to 1.32 to a dollar. 2001 Oil-production: 2.452 million bbl/day (2001 est.); note — production was disrupted as a result of the March-April 2003 war (2001 est.) 2002 GDP: purchasing power parity — $58 billion (2002 est.) 2002 Exports–partners:US 40.9%, Canada 8.2%, France 8.2%, Jordan 7.5%, Netherlands 6.4%, Italy 5.4%, Morocco 4.7%, Spain 4.4% (2002) 2003 In october 2003, the official Dinar-dollar exchange rate was ID1 to US$0.00027. 2004–2005 August 2004 till 2005, the official dinar-dollar exchange rate is ID1 to US$0.00068. Population: 25,374,691 (July 2004 est.) 2006 As of Jan 1st 2006, the official Iraqi dinar-US dollar exchange rate is ID1 to US$$0.00067.

The .00068 rate was the official dinar-dollar rate August 2004 till 2005 which was 1470...Strangely that was the rate we were stuck on for so long till it started changing on Nov 7th after the 4 day CBI break with no auctions.

Hope I have clarified what I was TRYING to spit out last night. And I hope it makes more sense to everyone and that some of these articles make better sense to us now. Hopefully from this we can zero in on what the CBI is up to or have I rambled nonsense again. and wasted your time on this LONG POST? I know I have probably made a few mistakes (and that they will be pointed out lol) but hopefully it is a start.

Cheers!
DayDream

So, what your saying is Sunday if the rate backs up to 1500 we know what their up to or do you think Sundays rate will be .66?

Originally Posted by DayDream

Guys...I'm going to attempt again what I tried to say last night, now that I have a clearer head. I just hope I can convey what it is I'm wanting you to see. I will be pulling up past articles old and new, past posts old and new to help illustrate the best I can, so please bear with me ok?

If you recall I said last night that the 1500 IQD figure has been mentioned alot lately, then I found the article...

Oct 12, 2006
A source in the Ministry of Finance stated that Mr. Jabr Al-Zubaidi declared, during his meeting with the Minister of Labor and Social Affairs Mahmmoud Al-Sheikh Radi, the decision of his ministry to specify one billion dollars (that is, one trillion and 500 billion iraqi dinar to help the unemployed set up small projects for themselves to provide a decent living for their families. He said: work of this project will start with the beginning of next year. (This is the equivalent of 1500 IQD/$1

Then we have this article again with the 1500 IQD mentioned, along with another figure that I think has relevance also 1450 IQD

December 2006 13, 2006

The Globe

Increasing the value of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar may hurt imports but it will help domestic trade.

The news about the appreciating value of the dinar against the dollar has hit the market in Suleimaniya hard. Many will lose their jobs. People believe that neither the government nor the Central Bank can carry out such a critical decision

Mr. Ali Abdullah of the Bank of Harem (The Regional Bank) says that attempts to raise the value of the dinar are not something new, but many preparations have been made in order for the plan to go ahead. He says that the decision was made to overcome the economic crises in Iraq.

"To increase the value of the dinar, the government has to increase exports and produce more goods," Mr. Abdullah believes.

Despite the fact that no official spokesperson from the Central Bank has ever issued such a firm decision decreasing the dollar value to 1250 ID from its previous value of 1450 ID has created an unnatural shake in the local markets.

Professor Dr. Narmeen Marouf, an economist, tells the Kurdish Globe that this move from the Central Bank aimed at solving the inflation crated due to the high value of the dollar. "If the value of the dinar goes up, the price of goods will decline sharply; they have been paid off in dollars and are sold in dinars," she says, adding that the Central Bank has also tried before to reduce prices and balance off the supply and demand in the local markets. "As the value of the dinar increases, consumers and the local merchants are the first to benefit."

At the moment, Iraq is not exporting any goods other than oil. Almost all goods in Iraqi markets are imports; hence the inflation, particularly when the value of the dinar declines for having no support, although it is quite possible for a decision as such to be made in order to reduce domestic issues. The decision will have two beneficiary forces - it will help Iraq vie for foreign markets and reduce prices in local ones.

"Since rumours started that the dinar was going to increase in value, many have faced sever financial damages," Kamaran Ali, of Money Mart, says. However, he does not believe in such a decision. "Increasing the value of the dinar" he says, "will not benefit anyone."

After 2003, the Iraqi Central Bank decided to peg the value of the dinar. Primarily, a dollar was equal to 1,450 ID, until the value of the dinar was reduced and a dollar became 1,470 ID, then 1,500, at which the price the value of the dinar seemed to stay still.

Now heres an article that REALLY had/has this forum puzzled...

Originally Posted by Adster

BAGHDAD, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Iraq's government expects the dinar to strengthen by 13 percent against the dollar by early 2007 after raising interest rates to limit the use of dollars in the economy and stem inflation, the country's finance minister said. (OK...lets try something here using our 2 figures 1500 X 13%=195... 1500-195=1305 IQD or 1450 X 13%=188.50...1450-188.50=1,261.50 IQD)

Minister Bayan Jabor told Reuters on Monday that the government has targeted an exchange rate to reach 1,260 dinars to the dollar in the first three months of 2007 from the current level of 1,500 to the dollar.

The 2007 $41 billion budget assumes an exchange rate of 1,260 dinars to the dollar, he said, adding the cabinet would discuss the draft budget on Saturday before hopefully sending it to parliament next week.

"There is an expected increase in the value of the dinar. The exchange rate is expected to drop from 1,500 dinars to the dollar to 1,260 in early 2007," he said in an interview.

"We will calculate the budget based on 1,260 dinars to the dollar and based on 50 dollars per barrel (of oil) and production of 1.7 million barrels per day.

"The central bank has started increasing the interest rate from 12 percent and it has now reached 16 percent."

Jabor said there were no immediate plans to raise interest rates further. The central bank increased its main interest rate to 16 percent from 12 percent on Nov. 8, according to the bank's Web site.

He said the aim of raising interest rates was to strengthen the dinar to fight dollarisation -- the use of dollars on a daily basis alongside the local dinar currency -- to stem high inflation and boost Iraqis' confidence in the domestic currency.

"It is to fight dollarisation. Every economy that depends on the dollar is considered weak," he said.

"Now I can say that Iraqis should use dinars instead of dollars. When we increase the value of the dinar it will help ease inflation, which is now at 56 percent. We expect inflation will decrease," he said.

Iraq's inflation rate hit 76.6 percent in August.

But sectarian violence is claiming the lives of more than 100 Iraqis a day and threatening to push the country into civil war. The daily violence has scared off foreign investments in the oil rich country.

A recent UN report said there was growing unemployment and poverty rates in Iraq. Corruption is endemic and state owned industries are inefficient. Oil is the main source of revenues but oil sector is suffering from years of mismanagement and violence.

"There is also a psychological factor -- Iraqis need to trust their currency when it is stable or strengthening."

The International Monetary Fund, which has backed Baghdad with a $685 million standby credit agreement, has also warned that rising inflation could undermine economic well-being and hinder the goal of improving the welfare of ordinary Iraqis.

Another problem facing the government is the high rate of unemployment, mainly among the young. Officials say the unemployment rate is between 30 and 40 percent.

Jabor said he was not worried by possible negative consequences of strengthening the dinar because the Central Bank had enough reserves to support the dinar.

"The dinar is strong -- the central bank is one of the best central banks in the region except for those in the Gulf. We have reserves of $15 billion in foreign currency other than gold, and it is only to support the dinar."

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/Cris...-R5-Alertnet-5


Ok, so we see they used the 1450 IQD rate to arrive at the 1260 ID in the above article.

Now this article...

Big increase in the demand for dollar
Dargham of Muhammad Ali
Baghdad - (Voices of Iraq)

The demand for dollar in the auction the Central Bank of Iraq today, Thursday, recording 60 million and 250 thousand dollars, compared with 17 million and 125 thousand dollars yesterday.
Such requests for the purchase of 22 million and 750 thousand dollars in cash and 37 million and 500 thousand dollars in the form of remittances outside the bank full coverage of exchange rate amounted to 1411 dinars to the dollar, a decline of three dinars on the exchange rate yesterday.

Two of the 15 banks participating in the auction today, the largest number of banks involved in one meeting during the last two months, bids for the sale of $ 200 thousand for the bank bought full exchange rate reached 1409 dinars to the dollar, which is the first since the sale of four meetings.

He expected to Yasiri, a bank dealers with the auction in a statement to the News Agency (Voices of Iraq) Independent, to witness the auction, the return of normal circulation during the forthcoming meetings due to equal the official exchange rate with the rate of exchange in the local market.

ÏæáÇÑ- (ÅÞÊÕÇÏ) :: Aswat al Iraq :: Aswat al Iraq

I believe one of these figures is our official exchange rate being mentioned above... 1500 IQD or the 1450 IQD. As far as the market rate we know that the street market usually sells about 10 dinar above the exchange rate...so lets add that to the 1450=1460 . This may explain the below articles real value rate...

General Budget 2004
Chairman of Managing Council Speech:
Ladies and Gentlemen stockholders of Baghdad Bank:
Iraq had been through some unusual circumstances within the last two years like instability and lack of security that have had a destructive impact on economy, investment and industrial production, but, despite of all that Baghdad Bank achieved a big success during the financial year of 2004 in comparison to the previous financial year and the most important index to that is balancing US dollar price with the current price of 1460 ID

Baghdad bank has taken also serious steps towards opening Al-Bayaa branch at the end of 2004 and rented a location for Al-Suliemaniya branch which shall be opened in March 2005 in addition to the expansion of Baghdad bank activities on the international level as it has made banking connections with many international banks. worth mentioning that Baghdad Bank started putting into practice new systems in Mansour, Palestine and Bayaa branches.

Presently such systems are being put into practice in the general center and general management to be spread later on to the other branches. Baghdad Bank has also signed a contract to use (SWIFT) system in external transfers in 2005. This system shall be run during the above mentioned year.
I would to inform all the stockholders of Baghdad Bank that the report of the managing council 2004 was prepared according to the demands of Central Bank of Iraq to balance US dollar price to0.310 ID instead of its real value (1460) ID per 1 US dollar, so, the report and general budget do not necessarily reflect the actual situation of Baghdad Bank and the volume of economical incoming indexes, so, this report was issued in order to meet the demands of the rules and instructions.

Now back to the 1500 and 1450 dinar...heres some past posts mentioning this figures by our members (mentioned many times just pulled these 3)

Inscrutable 11-22-06
An interesting read from a year ago this saturday.

http://www.cges.co.uk/pdf-lib/ChalabiAmman2005.pdf

e) The Iraqi dinar has lost its value. Prior to the war with Iran, it was worth $3.2. The dollar is currently worth around 1500 dinar. Abundant foreign currency reserves are a prerequisite for the government to be able to restore the purchasing power of the Iraqi dinar. One should not forget the old law of the Central Bank of Iraq, which restricted the circulation of the Iraqi dinar to 70% of the country’s gold and foreign currency reserves. This meant that for every 100 dinars issued for circulation, 70 dinars had to be retained in the Central Bank in the form of foreign currencies and gold, in order to support the dinar. This currency regulation provided a guarantee against inflation and for a stable and prosperous economy.
From where are these required financial reserves to be secured?

Adster

The former national ("Swiss") dinar notes were used throughout Iraq until the early 1990's, and this national currency still circulated in the Kurdish north. The bills nicknamed "Swiss dinar" either because of their relative stability and strength or because it was made in Europe, depending on the account. The Swiss dinar was trading at about 6.7 to the dollar in early July 2003.

I wanted to point out that in early 2003, the Iraqi dinar was anywhere from 1500:1 to 4000:1 unlike the Swiss dinar in the north which in July was still powering ahead at 6.7:1 against the $..which equates to 0.149$.


flockstar (oops sorry Adster...but I did put him beneath you!

Dinar worth around 1450 to 1USD for most of the last ten years that's a fact.

Now to this article...

Unemployment at 50%, says minister
By Ikhlas Majeed
Azzaman, December 14, 2006

Nearly half of Iraqis able to work are idle, said Minister of Labor and Social Affairs.
Mohamed Radhi said the high jobless rate was devastating to a country torn by sectarian strife and violence.
He said combating unemployment was as important as the fight against ‘terror’. Joblessness plays into the hands of ‘terrorists’, he said.
He said he had drawn a plan to provide short-term loans to families willing to start up their own businesses particularly those who depend on social benefits for a living.
This project will contribute to defeating terror and terrorists who target sources of energy and labor. As a result unemployment has reached more than 50 per cent in some provinces,” he said.
He said he had 100,000 small-sized projects in mind and has urged the government set aside enough allocations to have the scheme in place in 2007.
Each family will be given a loan of 10,000 dinars (approx. $6,600) to start the project, he said.

If we base this 10,000 dinar on the 1500 exchange rate we can get .000666=1501.50 Now lets revisit some thoughts bandied about not to long ago. Was it not suggested maybe removing a zero for easier conversion at the shops and markets. Take the 1500 remove the last zero make it 1.50IQD then we have the .66 rate that will arrive at the above mentioned articles $6,600 or OR lets move the decimal point 3 places to the left (notice no lop here!) and we still have the .66 rate.
PaulieThaGreat furnished this to us...

In early 1988, the official dinar-dollar exchange rate was still Iraqi dinar (ID)1 to US$3.22; however, with estimates of the nation’s inflation rate ranging from 25 percent to 50 percent per year in 1985 and 1986, the dinar’s real transaction value, or black market exchange rate, was far lower-only about half the 1986 official rate. 1986–2003 1986–2003 between .33 cents to 1.32 to a dollar. 2001 Oil-production: 2.452 million bbl/day (2001 est.); note — production was disrupted as a result of the March-April 2003 war (2001 est.) 2002 GDP: purchasing power parity — $58 billion (2002 est.) 2002 Exports–partners:US 40.9%, Canada 8.2%, France 8.2%, Jordan 7.5%, Netherlands 6.4%, Italy 5.4%, Morocco 4.7%, Spain 4.4% (2002) 2003 In october 2003, the official Dinar-dollar exchange rate was ID1 to US$0.00027. 2004–2005 August 2004 till 2005, the official dinar-dollar exchange rate is ID1 to US$0.00068. Population: 25,374,691 (July 2004 est.) 2006 As of Jan 1st 2006, the official Iraqi dinar-US dollar exchange rate is ID1 to US$$0.00067.

The .00068 rate was the official dinar-dollar rate August 2004 till 2005 which was 1470...Strangely that was the rate we were stuck on for so long till it started changing on Nov 7th after the 4 day CBI break with no auctions.

Hope I have clarified what I was TRYING to spit out last night. And I hope it makes more sense to everyone and that some of these articles make better sense to us now. Hopefully from this we can zero in on what the CBI is up to or have I rambled nonsense again. and wasted your time on this LONG POST? I know I have probably made a few mistakes (and that they will be pointed out lol) but hopefully it is a start.

Cheers!
DayDream

Now can we finish with the short summary please - with concise points.

http://www.azzaman.com/pdfarchive/2006/12/14-12/P4.pdf

I "think" it's the arabic version of the .66 article. Someone said it says 10 million Dinars as a loan. HELP

Originally Posted by cigarman

So, what your saying is Sunday if the rate backs up to 1500 we know what their up to or do you think Sundays rate will be .66?

I won't say Sunday (I'd like to ) but remember this..

He expected to Yasiri, a bank dealers with the auction in a statement to the News Agency (Voices of Iraq) Independent, to witness the auction, the return of normal circulation during the forthcoming meetings due to equal the official exchange rate with the rate of exchange in the local market.

It could be Sunday..but since meetings is plural..I don't know what they are up to. But I believe the rate they want to open at is .66 IQD.

Cheers!
DayDream

http://www.azzaman.com/pdfarchive/2006/12/14-12/P4.pdf

If the portion of the article which clarifies the numerical amount we are looking for and since the other Iraqi papers and website have not "touched" the comment made by the minister, the plan is to have the Azzaman Arabic Daily Newspaper Vol/9. Issue 2570 Thursday 14/12/2006 translated. Have sent this to the translator and he is checking this edition at this time, I just hope I had sent the correct page!

Note article by: Ikhlas Majeed

Azzaman in English

azzaman

Originally Posted by DayDream

I won't say Sunday (I'd like to ) but remember this..

He expected to Yasiri, a bank dealers with the auction in a statement to the News Agency (Voices of Iraq) Independent, to witness the auction, the return of normal circulation during the forthcoming meetings due to equal the official exchange rate with the rate of exchange in the local market.

It could be Sunday..but since meetings is plural..I don't know what they are up to. But I believe the rate they want to open at is .66 IQD.

Cheers!
DayDream

Why didn't you just say so. lol. Just picking, I know your trying to use facts.