Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Originally Posted by CharmedPiper

Just a little reminder this is the 2nd day the Gazette website has been down.

What is the Gazette? Is it a state side internet news site or an Iraqi one.

Originally Posted by kiko

Thanks for that one Adster!

Yesterday I posted some nice positive statements made by officials and mentioned in articles. By reading those old articles I already believed in a RV with a minimum of equal to the dollar.

Yesterday I also received an e-mail from Mr. M. from the Warka. In that e-mail I asked him about the recent article about no change in the currency and adding new categories.

Well as expected he didn't react on the lower denoms but said again that there will be no reprint. He said and I quote:

"As stated in my previous email it is not the decision of the Ministry of Finance to implement such a matter but the move of the CBI. The CBI has rejected this proposal."

Ok, we already knew that and I didn't ask him that but ok. First of all I am not bringing that subject up again, but this and the statements made me think all the time.

So I went back to the old articles of june/july from Zubaidi about raising the value of the dinar.

I mention the most important statements:

* Iraqi dinar Value should be raised
* One Iraqi dinar was valued at 3.33 US dollars
* The proposal has support and approval of the World Bank
* Three zeroes be taken from Iraqi Dinar to raise its value
* Minister confirmed that 2007 would see a qualitative budget and first of its kind in Iraqi history and that the new program would pinpoint economic indicators

Link: http://www.iraqdirectory.com/DisplayNews.aspx?id=1593


This article was at that point directly pushed into the zero lop and reprint direction while it's a lot mentioning "the value".

As we have read lately it is the goal to improve purchasing power of the Iraqi people by improving the exchange rate. In other words, improving the real value of the Iraqi Dinar.

Another remarkable point is that we now know that there will be no reprint/zero lop. IMF/World Bank wouldn't approve this and we now that now for a fact.

How is it possible that the World Bank gave support and approval on something that isn't going to happen? Unless they already knew then that they were talking about returning to the real exchange rate of $3.33 but not with a reprint!

Another point, now that I read it back, is that also remarkable words about the budget of 2007 are mentioned and linked to this article.

I think we have seen lately that the budget increased and its booming, something that makes you go hmmmm!

They also mentioned "studiying the proposal". Well in my opinion there is nothing to study about if you do not have the intention to go back to a previous level of the Iraqi Dinar!

I think they have studied about how and when they have to withdraw money from circulation and when to set the real exchange rate!
Then they were of course more statements, like:

"Zubaidi on this subject : the two split the price and that the financial and talk about the monetary side. Monetary value of the Iraqi dinar must revert to the previous level, or at least to acceptable levels as it is in the Iraqi neighboring states."

Link: Translated version of http://www.alsharqiya.com/display.asp?fname=aboutus%5C2006%5C008.txt&storyti tle=

They were telling again the $3 rate or at least equal to neighbouring states. For example Jordan where 1 Jordan Dinar = $ 1,41.

Then of course we have other important issues:

* CBI binder 12, which also is mentioning the $ 3.2169 rate in the
footnote
Link: http://www.cbiraq.org/binder12.pdf
* The books that are kept on $1 = 0.31 NID (=$ 3.22)


So as you can see I am also convinced that they will return to the previous level of $ 3.22 and I also think it will not be done at once but in 2 or 3 steps.

Personally I think (also hope) that they will return to a level around the $ 1.30 and $ 1.50.

This will be exactly in line with 1 SDR ($ 1.48), equal to Jordan which is important to Iraq ($ 1.41) and all the statement that is must have the value of 1:1.

I also thought about the IMF rate of 1345. Lately we saw the Dinar increasing from 3 points a day to 12 points a day and we were hoping that we should see more increasement now by the day, but instead of that they fall back to 8 points.

It seems they are trying to end exactly on the last day of 2006 on the IMF program rate of 1345 dinars to a dollar.

It just a thought, but HCL must as good as done and will be enacted in January as we have read. We also read that Maliki urged Barzani to put it into Force for the Iraqi people.
I still think they are trying to put in action, together with the FIL and ICI on their start of January. As Susie mentioned 2 or 3 January.

I think it is also quite possible that they end 2006 on the rate 1345 or nearing it and then move the decimal to $1.34 or $1.35.

That rate is also nearing 1 SDR, is more than 1:1 level and around neighbouring states.

I also still believe they always can set it overnight. They have proven that in the past and the dinar was also set to the program rate in one night.

My opinion is that they have all planned this out and that they can do whatever they want to do, also setting the rate back overnight.

I will sit on my Dinars untill the exchange rate is at least $1 or higher. We know what the potential is and that will set the value eventually.

Kiko,

Great post and great observations, I have a comment and a question. My comment is on what I bolded in red above. To avoid several pages of debate on the subject. Moving the . over is actually backwards in the rate that would be 1.34 dinar to 1 dollar. Not that it matters as we know they can really reval at whatever they want. My question is, on HCL. We have seen different articles about "approving by the end of the year" " approving early next year" blah blah blah. Now we are seeing the "lack of quorum" thing again and people taking off for the religious holiday. If memory serves me right, didn't we go through this with the FIL? yes it's done, no it's not, then one day BAM!! there it is. Is it entirely possible that the HCL is already a done deal?

John

Originally Posted by michael16

What is the Gazette? Is it a state side internet news site or an Iraqi one.

Translated version of http://www.uruklink.net/iqlaw/

Here's the site, still down. When laws are ready to go into effect they go on here before.

Iraqi parliament session postponed for lack of quorum
Baghdad, Dec 19, (VOI) – The Iraqi parliament on Tuesday was unable to hold a formal session for lack of quorum.
“There was lack of quorum, so today’s session was mainly consultative,” a legislator, who asked not to be named, told the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI) over the phone.
The parliament is expected to render its sessions consultative during the hajj season( Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca of Saudi Arabia) that ends in early January as more than 160 out of total of 275 legislators will perform hajj this year.
As the Iraqi Parliament is composed of 275 members and that the number of members planning to make a hajj this year are more than half the legislators, the sessions would consequently be delayed due to the incompletion of the legal quorum.

Originally Posted by CharmedPiper

Finally mainstream media has picked up on Iraq economy. I just heard on CNBC (financial network) headlines that say..."yes, you are not going to believe this but Iraq economy is booming..." I will keep you updated as they discuss it further.

It all depends on what article you read

WASHINGTON — Violence in Iraq is at an all-time high, confidence in the government is fading, and the economy is faltering, the Pentagon told Congress in a report released Monday.

Violence in Iraq at highest level - USATODAY.com

Originally Posted by jsfletcher

Kiko,

Great post and great observations, I have a comment and a question. My comment is on what I bolded in red above. To avoid several pages of debate on the subject. Moving the . over is actually backwards in the rate that would be 1.34 dinar to 1 dollar. Not that it matters as we know they can really reval at whatever they want. My question is, on HCL. We have seen different articles about "approving by the end of the year" " approving early next year" blah blah blah. Now we are seeing the "lack of quorum" thing again and people taking off for the religious holiday. If memory serves me right, didn't we go through this with the FIL? yes it's done, no it's not, then one day BAM!! there it is. Is it entirely possible that the HCL is already a done deal?

John

Don't forget fletcher, we also have articles stating the HCL will GO INTO EFFECT in January. To go into effect, it obviously has to go through the whole process of getting approved first.

Kuwait, Iraq to discuss cross-border oil fields

KUWAIT: Delegates from Kuwait and Iran will meet with Iraqi officials to consider sharing oil production agreements for cross-border fields, Dow Jones reports. Meetings with Iranian officials will take place this month, and discussions with Kuwaiti counterparts are planned for a later date.
Following the Iranian discussions, a company will be picked to appraise the reserves. It is worth mentioning that a modern fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit will be build for the refinery at Basra, for production of lighter products such as gasoline from heavy crude oil. Funds will also be utilized for a floating terminal in the Persian Gulf and a new pipeline.
An Iraq Petroleum Council will oversee all new contracts under a new hydrocarbon law which is scheduled to take effect in January. All previous contracts will be reviewed. Some details of the law still need to be finalised with Kurds in the north, who already established a separate licensing procedure.

http://www.kuwaittimes.net/localnews...tid=1684187300

I just finished watching CNBC Street Signs (business channel). They talked about Iraq's flourishing economy that is not reported such as real-estate, used car dealerships, etc. They said (as we all know) there are 2 sides to every story and who would have thought......Of course the optomists at RolClub have known all along. Of course if you want doom and gloom then read the New York Times or the Washington Post. Time for a reval Iraq.....the cat is out of the bag and running rampant through the media!!!! Oh yeah, run kitty run!!!

Just a quick question here. Were did the information come from that the CBI would not have anymore auctions after the 21st of this month? Is that listed on the CBI website somewhere or was it stated in an article, or are we just assuming that? Not saying that it is untrue, just wondered if that has been confirmed.

Originally Posted by Vipor

Don't forget fletcher, we also have articles stating the HCL will GO INTO EFFECT in January. To go into effect, it obviously has to go through the whole process of getting approved first.


http://www.kuwaittimes.net/localnews...tid=1684187300

Don't forget this one:

Iraq To Meet Iran, Kuwait On Cross-Border Oil Fields -Min

12-14-06 13:04ET

ABUJA, Nigeria -(Dow Jones)- Iraqi officials are to meet representatives from Iran later this month and Kuwait after that to discuss sharing oil production contracts in cross-border fields, Iraq's oil minister said Thursday.

Speaking at a press briefing on the side of a Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting here, Hussein al-Shahristani said: "We will meet in a sitting committee...with Iran in December" to examine data on the fields.

Al-Shahristani added the parties will then "select a company in a bidding round to assess the reserves."

Separately, Al-Shahristani said some $1 billion of a $1.6 billion loan granted by the Japan Bank for International Cooperation would be invested in a new fluid catalytic cracking unit at Basra's refinery.

An FCC unit produces lighter products such as gasoline from heavier crude fractions.

He said some of the loan would also be used for a new pipeline and floating terminal in the Gulf and the processing of gas, which is currently flared off.

In addition, the minister said he expects a new hydrocarbon law, which would enable the signature of the first national oil contracts since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, to be enacted in January.

He said all contracts signed under Saddam and since would be reviewed.

The new contracts would be overseen by an Iraq Petroleum Council that will define the rules of licensing qualifications as well as which companies could prequalify.

He said most details of the law had been agreed with the Kurds in the oil-rich north, who controversially have set up a separate licensing process, though there remained sticking points on the council's decision procedures.

Iraq To Meet Iran, Kuwait On Cross-Border Oil Fields

Originally Posted by TerryTate

Just a quick question here. Were did the information come from that the CBI would not have anymore auctions after the 21st of this month? Is that listed on the CBI website somewhere or was it stated in an article, or are we just assuming that? Not saying that it is untrue, just wondered if that has been confirmed.

Great question!

I also like to know how many auctions there will be and when the first of the new year is?

Maybe someone knows!