Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Originally Posted by karinc

I don't understand this... I have been watching the Swedish krona for a while at these auctions. It used to be around 207, then 206, and now it is 202. Shouldn't it go UP instead of down?
I mean, since the dinar is going"down", i.e. less dinars for a dollar, then the dinar is getting more expensive, getting a higher value, right? That's what we are all excited about, right? But if the dinar is getting more expensive, how come that you now need LESS SEK to buy dinars? If the sell rate from CBI(or is it buy? (don't know who's selling and who is buying))only had gone down it would have been logical (I would get less SEK if I exchanged my dinars), but BOTH buy and sell are dropping...
Could somebody please explain this to me?
/Karin

Good question,

Having been involved in FOREX I can tell you that each currency moves independent of the others, and some will have more movement against specific currencies if one rises as the other falls, so a much more dramatic difference will be seen. On the other hand, you may see just the opposite, and one currency drops along with the other you are comparing it to.

In the case of the Krone, you would have to compare it to other currencies to determine if it did indeed drop or rise in value, which I suspect is what you are seeing. It is impossible to determine a currencies drop against a specific currency unless you were tracking all movement to get an overall average drop against all currencies as a percentage. Too many variables, and without researching it, I suspect the Krone moved in value as the dollar has lately been dropping, so it works both ways.

Happy Holiday Season to all, Mike

Originally Posted by ourhouse37

This is a whole lot different than the talk of an actual RV event, and pretty depressing actually. Is the prevailing opinion going away from a good sized RV and to this very gradual rise? I know we're all in it for the long haul and have no choice but to be patient, but yikes. If it's only going to be at 1,260 by March, that's starting to look like a looooooooooooooong ol' haul. Adster? William?

Good point from elsewhere:

"There is an expected increase in the value of the dinar. The exchange rate is expected to drop from 1,500 dinars to the dollar to 1,260 in early 2007," he said in an interview.

"We will calculate the budget based on 1,260 dinars to the dollar and based on 50 dollars per barrel (of oil) and production of 1.7 million barrels per day.
...........................................
..........................................

Lot of talk on here about going past 1350.
They have targeted 1260.


So their budget is: $41,000,000,000 which, if they are trying to promote the Dinar as the CURRENCY OF CHOICE, at 1260:1 would be IQD51,660,000,000,000. OK so, even if they plan to pay only half in Dinars and do some business in Dollars then that would be: IQD25,830,000,000,000.

My next question is: Where the hell is the Physical Currency to back up almost 26 TRILLION DINARS. Is there even that much in existence? I thought that in the Real Financial World you had to have enough PHYSICAL currency to back up the amounts you are working with even if some of the transactions are done electronically that money would still PHYSICALLY have to be available somewhere.

Forgetting about the PHYSICAL currency abroad but do they have this much money in Iraq? Let's say that some people are correct and they are planning to give in 100,000 business start up loans: IQD 10Million instead of that stated in the article a few days ago (IQD10,000) that would be 100,000 x 10,000,000 = IQD1,000,000,000,000. That makes 1 TRILLION already off the figure.

Next we take, say, $3500 for each citizen for a year from Oil Revenues that would be (at 1260:1) IQD4,410,000 given conservatively to maybe 15 Million people (realistically it is 20+Million) I make that to be IQD66,150,000,000,000

Someone please check my figures because in summary

Based on exchange rate: 1260:1

2007 Budget (for everything) = IQD51,660,000,000,000 ($41 Billion)
Business loans = IQD10,000,000 x 100,000 Projects = IQD1,000,000,000,000
Oil Revenues = IQD4,410,000 ($3500) x 15,000,000 (No. of people) = IQD66,150,000,000,000

So:

51,660,000,000,000
- 1,000,000,000,000
-66,150,000,000,000
--------------------
-15,490,000,000,000
--------------------

A DEFICIT of IQD15,490,000,000,000. This is BEFORE any other expenditure is taken into account which there DEFINITELY is....

PLEASE! Somebody check my presumptions here because it DEFINITELY does not add up....

Originally Posted by ourhouse37

This is a whole lot different than the talk of an actual RV event, and pretty depressing actually. Is the prevailing opinion going away from a good sized RV and to this very gradual rise? I know we're all in it for the long haul and have no choice but to be patient, but yikes. If it's only going to be at 1,260 by March, that's starting to look like a looooooooooooooong ol' haul. Adster? William?

Maybe I am wrong but haven't we read that Zubaidi said that next years budget starts at the rate of 1260. Meaning that 1/1/2007 the rate will be 1260.

I think CBI will raise the rate to 1260 by 31/12/2006, that is better then the IMF 1345 and seen as possitive.

Then they can enact the whole package HCL/FIL/ICI and let the market determine the rate or they can RV the dinar at once to a good level (1:1).

It is difficult to get our brains sorted, because they are sending a lot of BS in the air with many different number and periods. That is also telling me that they have a plan that nobody may know.

Originally Posted by laurenr

Can Iraq settle for an exchange rate of just 1260:1 ?

Thier 2007 budget appears to be calculated with this rate as it's basis.

Is there any evidence to prove this CANNOT be maintained ?

And yes I have been reading all of the past info here on RolClub,
excellent though it is, most of our understanding is our own
interpretation of what we & others WANT to happen rather than
any real facts that state a significant R/V of 1:1 or better is coming.

I really want this to R/V significantly, in fact I really NEED this to happen,
but there have been many references to 1260 in a number of documents
quoted here on RolClub.

Can we just ignore them because we WANT 1:1 or higher ?

I know these questions have probably been asked before,
but I have never seen a convincing argument to answer them.

There is no question in my mind, that their budget can be maintained at a dinar value of 1260. And it doesn't mean that outside investors will necessarily buy up Iraq for a "song"

What it does mean is that every transaction they make will have to be "dollarized". They will need to determine in USD the value of every transaction so that a fair exchange can occur on every transaction.

Determining the USD value of every transaction will require them to get out their calculators every time a lease or a purchase takes place - although this might not be so difficult.

If their budget is calculated on a dinar rate of 1260 = 1USD. it won't necessarily be difficult to "dollarize" every transaction. I believe they could simply move the decimal place over three places to determine fair market value in USD. In other words, they may be able to calculate fair market value using an under the table dinar value of 1.260=1USD

Personally, I believe that the dinar will be revalued, very likely to 1.26=1USD.
If they do this in the very near future, which I believe they will, then the need to "dollarize" every transaction will be eliminated.

Keep in mind that if Iraq is planning to revalue their dinar - they will not tell us - you will never see it print anywhere - it must be a surprise!

I believe their publicly stated dinar value of 1260=1USD for 2007 - is as much as they can tell us.

The surprise will be when they move the decimals over from 1260 to 1.26=1USD and I think it will happen as I have stated before - midnight Jan 1st, 2007. If for some reason, they choose a later date to revalue, moving the decimals is still very easy - and can be done at any time they choose, to maintain the element of surprise.

Originally Posted by kevinsw

Well THIS figure will do the people a lot of good when it comes to the 10,000 dinar gift won't it.

I think it's a crock of whooy They must have been studying how our congress works and the bs they **** forth WAY to much.

Good point, I was thinking about that one too.

No 10K handout as OSW stated. Now Mr. K. from Warka told to someone in the e-mail that a 10K at the current rate won't be accepted because it is a few dollars. They know they are rich and sitting on one of the biggest oil reserves.

Now the 10K is promised let's say at the rate of 1470 at that time worth $ 6.80.

Now they increase the rate to 1260, now the 10K is worth $ 7.94.

Wow, Wow, Wow what a big help for the Iraqi people and what a boost in the purchasing power.


Now, setting the dinar to 1260 is increasing that few dollars from the 10K.

Even if they go to a rate of 1000:1 by the end of january then it is a $10 gift.

I think all these amounts won't be accepted by majority and they have to come one time with the gift as promised, especially when they are appreciating the dinar by little points and there will be still poverty.

It is almost impossible to not link the 10K to the RV. Why not giving it out if a lot of people can use some extra dollars unless they are waiting till it is something worth and that would fit perfectly with the statement of Mr. K. from Warka.

Originally Posted by billknows

There is no question in my mind, that their budget can be maintained at a dinar value of 1260. And it doesn't mean that outside investors will necessarily buy up Iraq for a "song"

What it does mean is that every transaction they make will have to be "dollarized". They will need to determine in USD the value of every transaction so that a fair exchange can occur on every transaction.

Determining the USD value of every transaction will require them to get out their calculators every time a lease or a purchase takes place - although this might not be so difficult.

If their budget is calculated on a dinar rate of 1260 = 1USD. it won't necessarily be difficult to "dollarize" every transaction. I believe they could simply move the decimal place over three places to determine fair market value in USD. In other words, they may be able to calculate fair market value using an under the table dinar value of 1.260=1USD

Personally, I believe that the dinar will be revalued, very likely to 1.26=1USD.
If they do this in the very near future, which I believe they will, then the need to "dollarize" every transaction will be eliminated.

Keep in mind that if Iraq is planning to revalue their dinar - they will not tell us - you will never see it print anywhere - it must be a surprise!

I believe their publicly stated dinar value of 1260=1USD for 2007 - is as much as they can tell us.

The surprise will be when they move the decimals over from 1260 to 1.26=1USD and I think it will happen as I have stated before - midnight Jan 1st, 2007. If for some reason, they choose a later date to revalue, moving the decimals is still very easy - and can be done at any time they choose, to maintain the element of surprise.

Great Post Bill!

That BS of 1260 is making me angry but as you stated, it must be a surprise!

One of the things I hope, is that if they RV the dinar they will send as quickly as possible those 10K gift for every citizen for a good and brand new start!

This is being talked about elswhere:




http://siteresources.worldbank.org/I...RAQNov2006.pdf
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Originally Posted by Mike5200

This is being talked about elswhere:




http://siteresources.worldbank.org/I...RAQNov2006.pdf
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Thanks, but link not working.

This one also:


http://siteresources.worldbank.org/I...SHEETDec06.pdf
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Sorry about the links not working....I don't know how to fix that!