Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Originally Posted by Mike5200

Sorry about the links not working....I don't know how to fix that!

Perhaps you could describe how you got on the site and the links you clicked on to get there....

Originally Posted by ourhouse37

This is a whole lot different than the talk of an actual RV event, and pretty depressing actually. Is the prevailing opinion going away from a good sized RV and to this very gradual rise? I know we're all in it for the long haul and have no choice but to be patient, but yikes. If it's only going to be at 1,260 by March, that's starting to look like a looooooooooooooong ol' haul. Adster? William?

I now understand what my dinar dealer means when he says in every e-mail to " think long term on this investment. "

Originally Posted by ourhouse37

Quote:
Originally Posted by MunnyBaggs
The latest information we have is a target rate of 1260 by around March 31 of 07. My own personal feeling is they will get to that level faster than March. Here's a paragraph from that article:

Minister Bayan Jabor told Reuters on Monday that the government has targeted an exchange rate to reach 1,260 dinars to the dollar in the first three months of 2007 from the current level of 1,500 to the dollar.




This is a whole lot different than the talk of an actual RV event, and pretty depressing actually. Is the prevailing opinion going away from a good sized RV and to this very gradual rise? I know we're all in it for the long haul and have no choice but to be patient, but yikes. If it's only going to be at 1,260 by March, that's starting to look like a looooooooooooooong ol' haul. Adster? William?

"1,260 dinars to the dollar in the first three months of 2007"

Why couldn't it just as well hit 1260 on the FIRST day of the first 3 months, and not the LAST day of the first three months? Once again, we're all trying to connect the dots, except we have one very large arm tied behind our backs. And that is: the man behind the curtain.. Shabbibi.. isn't being quoted in ANY of these articles, is he? So, we have some clues from other sources, but, still guessing at all of it since we don't have the CBI revealing most of their cards.

Depressing? I guess it's all in how you look at it. The actions of the CBI in their auctions of these past 6 weeks should be telling all of us that there is a pretty intelligent man running the CBI, and that there IS a plan. What has happened in these last 6 weeks has been amazing to watch, has been very exciting, and if moves of 13 points don't encourage us, then I don't know what will.

Instant, overnight huge jump in the exchange rate? Maybe, maybe not. If it's a slow steady rise over the next 6 months to a year and eventually gives us the rate we are looking for, could we be patient to wait that long?

I have no problem with being that patient. What choice do we have? Enjoy the ride, don't be depressed. Be encouraged by what the CBI is doing, and if you're like me, take all the predictions with a grain of salt.

Just my .31, (eventually= 1 dinar) worth

Randy

Originally Posted by Pegasus

Perhaps you could describe how you got on the site and the links you clicked on to get there....

That would be breaking the rules.... said they were being talked about ELSEWHERE (hint... hint)

Originally Posted by kiko

Maybe I am wrong but haven't we read that Zubaidi said that next years budget starts at the rate of 1260. Meaning that 1/1/2007 the rate will be 1260.

I think CBI will raise the rate to 1260 by 31/12/2006, that is better then the IMF 1345 and seen as possitive.

Then they can enact the whole package HCL/FIL/ICI and let the market determine the rate or they can RV the dinar at once to a good level (1:1).

It is difficult to get our brains sorted, because they are sending a lot of BS in the air with many different number and periods. That is also telling me that they have a plan that nobody may know.

I agree, we know that the street value of the Dinar has been rising in the last month following CBI exchange rate hikes and news of 1260 by the end of the year. Clearly the market has been responding to recent events.

When the HCL,ICI,FIL have been enacted I believe the market will respond with a huge buying frenzy. Everyone that has been watching and waiting to invest will see that they can do business in Iraq. The demand for Dinar will sky rocket, whether the CBI likes it or not (and I am sure they will like it very much).

Old artical I found from 2004
but still a good read

''The regime is gone,'' says Osama al-Quraishi, an Iraqi entrepreneur who returned to Baghdad to search for business opportunities after decades in exile in Europe and the Middle East. ''There are no restrictions. There are no rules.'' He predicts Baghdad will soon replace Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, as the Middle East's commercial center
Under Saddam, the shops were silent, the goods available were obsolete or absurdly overpriced, and the cars were clunkers dating back 15 or 20 years. Now that Saddam is gone, signs of bounty are visible everywhere in Baghdad and to a lesser extent in smaller cities such as Mosul and Basra.

The World Bank says Iraq's economy shrank by nearly a third last year after several years of smaller declines. The World Bank projects a sharp rebound in 2004 -- growth ranging anywhere from 30% to 70% -- and an overall economy worth $17 billion to $22 billion.


As long as regulation remains low, Iraq's economy will continue to grow. Once the booming economy has started to benefit a large majority of Iraqis, the terrorists will be doomed. So the next year or two are critical

Originally Posted by livefree

I now understand what my dinar dealer means when he says in every e-mail to " think long term on this investment. "

I'm not any more in the know than anyone else, but, it seems to me that this is bogus. As I think about the strategy that the CBI has been believed to be taking dinar out of the economy, how better to get even more out of the economy than to discourage as many as possible into believing that the long haul is going to be even longer. Some people don't have the patience it takes, and, I believe CBI may be taking advantage of that fact. I don't like hearing discouraging information about our long awaited revalue any more than anyone else, but, as the saying goes, "patience is a virtue". Someone a few weeks back posted the idea of "misinformation" being used to take some off the trail of the dinar. I believe they are attempting to continue to pull dinar out of the economy in as "cheap" a fashion as possible. From an economic point of view, that makes total sense. Don't give up!

Originally Posted by Mike5200

Sorry about the links not working....I don't know how to fix that!

Mike,

Hope these will open..

I clicked on the links over "there". then copied and pasted the entire url out of the address window after it opened up

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/I...RAQNov2006.pdf

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/I...SHEETDec06.pdf

Originally Posted by billknows

There is no question in my mind, that their budget can be maintained at a dinar value of 1260. And it doesn't mean that outside investors will necessarily buy up Iraq for a "song"

What it does mean is that every transaction they make will have to be "dollarized". They will need to determine in USD the value of every transaction so that a fair exchange can occur on every transaction.

Determining the USD value of every transaction will require them to get out their calculators every time a lease or a purchase takes place - although this might not be so difficult.

If their budget is calculated on a dinar rate of 1260 = 1USD. it won't necessarily be difficult to "dollarize" every transaction. I believe they could simply move the decimal place over three places to determine fair market value in USD. In other words, they may be able to calculate fair market value using an under the table dinar value of 1.260=1USD

Personally, I believe that the dinar will be revalued, very likely to 1.26=1USD.
If they do this in the very near future, which I believe they will, then the need to "dollarize" every transaction will be eliminated.

Keep in mind that if Iraq is planning to revalue their dinar - they will not tell us - you will never see it print anywhere - it must be a surprise!

I believe their publicly stated dinar value of 1260=1USD for 2007 - is as much as they can tell us.

The surprise will be when they move the decimals over from 1260 to 1.26=1USD and I think it will happen as I have stated before - midnight Jan 1st, 2007. If for some reason, they choose a later date to revalue, moving the decimals is still very easy - and can be done at any time they choose, to maintain the element of surprise.

Brilliant post Bill. With everything that I've learn thus far I believe you are very correct in your thinking. The $1.26 figure fits nicely with Susie's and RR's Kurdish contacts saying .93 Euros (About the $1.20 range) JMO

Originally Posted by Alphamystic

Brilliant post Bill. With everything that I've learn thus far I believe you are very correct in your thinking. The $1.26 figure fits nicely with Susie's and RR's Kurdish contacts saying .93 Euros (About the $1.20 range) JMO

Hey Alpha, I think Bill meant 1.26 NID = $1

or.. $0.79365