Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Originally Posted by Socata 850

Number of banks 5 -----
Auction price selling dinar / US $ 1338 -----
Auction price buying dinar / US $ 1336 -----
Amount sold at auction price (US $) 2.700.000 -----
Amount purchased at Auction price (US $) 3.820.000
Total offers for buying (US $) 2.700.000 -----
Total offers for selling (US $) 3.820.000 -----


Goooooooooooooood Morning RolClub


1338 and not even so much as a "Thank you Mame" on the way by. All the IMF hype and the magical 1345 came and went without much of a fight. I think this sets the stage for an anticlimactic 1260 level and beyond. IMO we're headed for a reval that we've all been waiting for. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say Dec 31st or there abouts should be pretty significant in terms of our investment. As I have stated before, the logical thing would be for them to enact the new budget and the new year with a revalued dinar. Again, logic doesn't seem to be one of the of the Iraqi's strong suits. I didn't say they weren't smart, because this program they are on is amazing, however it does lack some logic from time to time. Maybe when the whole picture is finally unveiled we'll all see the genius behind it, but for now, we live from auction to auction. After all, we are approaching the 10% mark since the dramatic reduction started on or near Nov 1st.



1. The dinar to the dollar is down 7 more points today from 1345 to 1338

2. A negative $1,120,000 (net) worth of dinars, (IQD - 1,496,320,000) out of circulation
3. 5 banks participating.

4. 52nd auction since the beginning of CBI's reval plan

5. 87 days into the CBI's reval plan.

6. 2,858,411,027,000 dinars pulled from circulation !!

7. 1,496,320,000 Dinars back into circulation today !!

8. 139 dinar change since Nov 1st (baseline was 1477) 9.410% increase in value of the dinar since beginning of reval plan.

9. 22 point reduction in the rate so far this week. Was at 1360 at the end of last week, 1338 this week.

10. 97 point drop so far in the month of Dec. Ended at 1435 in Nov, now stands at 1338

It appears to me, as to most who have been watching this whole thing happen, that logic has nothing to do with what is going on. Those in the position to call the shots know what is going to happen. They know it has to happen...it is to their benefit and all those they love that it happens. In knowing that it will happen, they can afford, mentally speaking, to take slow methodical steps in the whole process. They are making history...the rest of the world will sit up and take notice...the naysayers are in the process of putting their bibs on for their banquet of crow...and our lives are in the process of being forever changed...GLORY TO GOD!

A significant decrease in the demand for the dollar and the sale offers more than buying
Dargham of Muhammad Ali
Baghdad - (Voices of Iraq)

The volume of demand for the dollar, largely in an auction today, Tuesday, the Central Bank of Iraq, recording the volume hit 2 million and 700 thousand dinars, compared to 16 million and 450 thousand dollars yesterday, Monday,.

Distributed demand by two million dollars in cash and 700 thousand dollars in the form of remittances outside the country covered by the bank fully exchange rate hit 1338 dinars low seven points from yesterday, Monday, the rate of exchange of 1345 dinars.
With the five participating banks submitted bids for the sale of three million and 820 thousand dollars, which is higher than the amount sold by the bank, bought the bank in full at the exchange rate reached 1336 dinars.

He said Abdul Razak as far as economic expert in a statement to the News Agency (Voices of Iraq) said that the arrival of independent exchange rate in the local market as a precautionary measure exceeded the decline in the Central Bank, which generated a great slump in the demand for the purchase offers for the sale of many.

ÇáÏæáÇÑ - (ÅÞÊÕÇÏ) :: Aswat al Iraq :: Aswat al Iraq

Originally Posted by Caviar Dreams

I'm pretty excited for this thing to blow out of the water also, but isn't $4+ reaching? Heck, I would be ecstatic with a .30-1 now, and 1-1 within the next couple of years. Everyone keeps quoting the 80's exchange rate of $3.00+, but that was not a recognized rate, it was a rate set by Sadaam.

The GCC will probably have a unified currency before the end of 2008 with full utilization by 2010. Odds are that Iraq will be a key partner in the GCC, and I don't think the GCC will have an average currency exchange over $2.00. I hope everyone that is expecting a high RV is right, but I guess I prefer to keep my feet on the ground so events that unfold aren't so disappointing as they have been for the last 2 1/2 years. Although, the last two months have been pretty exciting.

Good luck and Happy New Years to all!

You are forgetting one minor detail...Iraq is a totally different situation from any that have ever existed. You can't compare to Germany under the Marshall plan because Germany didn't have the largest oil reserve known to man at the time. You can't compare to Kuwait for a lot of the same reasons. The fact is...anything is possible. If oil prices do as has been forecasted, like the magic 1345 number, the value of the dinar could whiz right on by the 1:1, when market forces take over, and into what some may see as stratospheric numbers.

Originally Posted by boomcreek

You are forgetting one minor detail...Iraq is a totally different situation from any that have ever existed. You can't compare to Germany under the Marshall plan because Germany didn't have the largest oil reserve known to man at the time. You can't compare to Kuwait for a lot of the same reasons. The fact is...anything is possible. If oil prices do as has been forecasted, like the magic 1345 number, the value of the dinar could whiz right on by the 1:1, when market forces take over, and into what some may see as stratospheric numbers.

ãÌáÓ ÇáÊÚÇæä ÇáÎáíÌí

I think you may be a little off the mark from what we were discussing. The GCC has nothing to do with the Marshall plan, and I wasn't comparing WWII to Iraq. The GCC stands for Gulf Cooperation Council. The GCC currently consists of the following Arab nations; Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of Bahrain, and United Arab Emirates. The GCC Charter states that the basic objectives are to effect coordination, integration and inter-connection between Member States in all fields, strengthening ties between their peoples, formulating similar regulations in various fields such as economy, finance, trade, customs, tourism, legislation, administration, as well as fostering scientific and technical progress in industry, mining, agriculture, water and animal resources, establishing scientific research centres, setting up joint ventures, and encouraging cooperation of the private sector.

I didn't forget that the rebirth of Iraq's government and the restructuring of their economy are completely unique to anything our generation has ever seen, and probably unique to what generations before or after us have/will ever see. That's what makes this such a great opportunity! I believe that anything is possible, and it could whiz right by the 1:1 mark, I'm just injecting a little conservative summation of the possibilities that this investment may not have the huge outcome of $3.00-$4.00+ that some are hoping for. Again, I think it is more logical that the initial large revalue will be approximately $.34 and a slow climb to 1:1 before the end of 2007. I hope I'm wrong, and it revalues higher and faster.

A parliamentary report on the economic impacts of the recommendations Baker

Dr. prepared ones Albldawi member of the Committee on the economy, investment and reconstruction in the House of Representatives a detailed report on the report of the Baker Hamilton and its effects on the economy of Iraq. The report pointed out that : "Despite the fact that most of the paragraphs of the Baker-Hamilton attention fell under the security aspect and marched the political process in Iraq, but it did not fail to indicate important on the economic side." According to a report by Deputy : "The follow-up to the American administration and their representatives working in Iraq's faltering steps taken by the Iraqis to achieve security and political stability, and the accompanying escalation of the pace of diplomatic movement in and out of American States, and many hearings of the American Congress on the situation in Iraq, led to the emergence of new schemes and look to the future has given the economic situation fell to the successor. And instead of the priorities on the agenda of the paragraphs of the report concern the Iraqi economy as a secondary means of threats and pressure on the Iraqi government. " He added : "The United States was trying to be exculpatory owes through with the report's emphasis on the need to express the willingness and the ability to aid and economic support to the Iraqi government and start a new goals to improve services, particularly in areas that affect the lives of citizens, as they felt the suffering of the Iraqi people to get their needs
Fuel and oil derivatives different, and he continuously since the era of the former regime. " Between : "The report of the Baker Hamilton linking these data, the conditions imposed on the government, including significant progress on the path of national reconciliation and the achievement of security and stabilization provision, and the United States is unaware of the responsibility for the deterioration of the security situation, which is demanding from the government plagued its collection of contradictions and deal with partners heterogeneous in light of the national unity government, which hints of some parties to withdraw from the political process, and others that the choice remaining after the withdrawal is coming out into the streets and take up arms". The report pointed out : "The highlight here several questions, including why the report does not address the debt that Iraq still languishing under the resistance and paper constitutes pressure whenever necessary? Why does not mention Iraq's looted funds in a time of the former regime, which is now funding sources for the killings and terror in Iraq is a source of nutrition for the ongoing liquidation of the Iraqis. It might be seeking in return a means of stability they were looking for. " He continued : "Why did not report touches on a subject of a memorandum of understanding / oil-for-food / and Marafqaha of mismanagement and financial corruption scandal of Iraq and its people bear the expenses of the investigation through no fault of their own." He explained : "All of these references could have been included additional goals in paragraph 25 of the report, which has strong relations with the lives of Iraqis, which is to return them in one way or another benefit and prosperity

جريدة المواطن العراقية

Former minister of planning : the national economy dependent and subject to international oil markets
الةOil contributes 95% of the budget

A member of the House of Representatives and Minister of Planning and Development Cooperation Mahdi Al-Hafiz, former Iraqi, that the oil revenues was a "source base for financing the state budget by 95%, and the source of foreign currency, which provide cash cover of the national currency, as a proportion of 65% of the gross domestic product," pointing out that "if known to all parties." However, he explained that the new order "is the deterioration of economic conditions in the form of serious, particularly the productive sectors, especially industry and agriculture." Pointing out that the proportion of the contribution of industry to GDP, "ranging between 1.5% and 2%, while a fall in the past, specifically in the early 1980s between 8 and 10%. Agriculture dropped its contribution to the GDP to 3 per cent, after a 12 per cent in the same period. " Hafiz explained that this meant that "our economy today is the continued fluently and nature dependent on the outside world." It added that it "depends on the world oil market to determine the size of its financial resources at the sharp pendulum hand, as well as the fact that importation is the center of gravity to cover demand in the local market for vital goods, from food and consumer medicines, medical supplies and even services," He gave that to the "inability of industry and agriculture on the performance of this task." He believed that the Iraqi economy "has become the recipient of external shocks, whether through export or import." The keeper to "take seriously the gravity of this case, especially as it is accompanied by negative phenomena, originating primarily from the subordination of the working space, including the rise in the rates of inflation and high prices." It pointed out that the "rate of inflation now stands at 60% after it passed in the past few months in the case of the pendulum, as the rate exceeded 70%." He believed that
For that reason, the President "is the total reliance on external market. And make this dependence Iraq now suffers from the phenomenon of imported inflation, bringing the Iraqis do not find in the market only fruits and vegetables the Egyptian, Syrian and Jordanian perhaps, with no one to industrial goods but what is imported from abroad. " The social case, Frei it is the "worsening living conditions for the largest groups of the population, which had suffered from high unemployment rates of around 50%, as well as the aggravation of the phenomenon of absolute poverty or extreme." He pointed out that these negative features, "continues without addressing the real amount to a high level of a sense of national responsibility, in the circumstance is the economic performance of the State phenomena worrying whether on the level of capabilities and performance of the executive branch, or on the level of the spread of the phenomenon of corruption, which poses the past the need for economic reform at the level of policy or structural and economic institutions." He stressed that the keeper needed economic reform "Covering a broad, the most important address of laws, regulations and instructions that cripple the Iraqi economy
And hamper conversion to a market economy, an active and vital. " He said : "If there is one correct view of the need now to the integration of the Iraqi economy, the global economy, it must remember that correct this trend is directly linked to increasing the competitiveness of various sectors of the national economy, especially productivity, and expand the volume of export and reducing import limits appropriate and measured." He said the "diversification of the productive base is important strategy in the first place, and should be regarded as the foundation of economic reform desired." He said that Iraq "is a big problem in the design and application of policies, while the difficult security situation remains the most important factor in the region and the priority tasks of national peace, but there is no reason to give greater attention to the mobilization of financial resources and management in the form of sound, according to a balanced provide an opportunity for all parts of the country and areas of benefit in the form of equitable." Hafiz said : "If Iraq is happening today is about 17 or 18 billion dollars in cash reserves, and if the Iraqi Development Fund maintained at about six to seven billion dollars, the search must then seriously in the distribution and management of resources in the form of Rasheed

جريدة المواطن العراقية

THE BOOM OUTSIDE BAGHDAD December 26, 2006 -- UMQASR, IRAQ

WHILE the American political elite is using Iraq as an ex cuse for fighting internal political wars, a different reality is taking shape in parts of this war-torn nation. Wherever some measure of security is assured - that is to say in more than 80 percent of Iraq - towns and villages long left to die a slow death are creeping back to life.

Nowhere is this slow but steady return to life more startling than in Um Qasr, in the southeast extremity of Iraq on the Persian Gulf. Four years ago, this was a jumble of rusting quays, abandoned houses and gutted buildings. By the spring of 2003, its population had dwindled to a few dozen, along with hundreds of stray dogs. There was even talk of abandoning it altogether.

Today, however, Um Qasr is back in business as a port with commercial and military functions. Hundreds of families that had left after the first Gulf War in 1991 have returned - joining many more who have come from all over Iraq.

The boom in Um Qasr is part of a broader picture that also includes Basra (the sprawling metropolis of southern Iraq), the Shi'ite "holy" cities of Najaf and Karbala, Mandali on the Iranian border and much of Baghdad.

When the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank reported two years ago that the Iraqi economy was heading for a boom, skeptics dismissed it as misplaced optimism. Now, however, even some of those who opposed the toppling of Saddam Hussein admit that many Iraqis share that optimism.

Newsweek has just hailed the emergence of a booming market economy in Iraq as "the mother of all surprises," noting that "Iraqis are more optimistic about the future than most Americans are." The reason, of course, is that Iraqis know what is going on in their country while Americans are fed a diet of exclusively negative reporting from Iraq.

The growing dynamism of the Iraqi economy is reflected in the steady increase in the value of the national currency, the dinar, against the three currencies in direct competition with it in the Iraqi marketplace: the Iranian rial, the Kuwaiti dinar and the U.S. dollar, since January 2006.

No doubt, part of the dinar's strength reflects the rise in Iraq's income from oil exports to almost $40 billion in 2006, an all-time record. But oil alone does not explain all, since both Iran and Kuwait are bigger exporters than Iraq.

The fact that civil-servant salaries have increased by almost 30 percent, with a further 30 percent due to come into effect early next year, also has helped boost demand.

But a good part of the boom is due to an unexpected flow of foreign capital. This has been facilitated by the prospect of a liberal law on direct foreign investments, which exists only in such free-trade parts of the region as Dubai and Bahrain. None of Iraq's six neighbors offers such guarantee for the free flow of capital to and from the country.

Since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, the number of private companies in Iraq has increased from a mere 8,000 to more than 35,000 this year. Each week an average of 60 new companies spring up in Iraq's booming areas. A good part of the investment in southern Iraq, including in Um Qasr, comes from Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.

"Whatever happens, Iraq is Iraq," says a Kuwaiti businessman, building hotels in the south. "Iraq will always remain the country with the world's largest oil reserves and the Middle East's biggest resources of water."

One hears similar comments from local and foreign businessmen investing in real estate in Najaf and Karbala. Over 200 million Shiite Muslims regard the cities as holy. Najaf and Karbala have always been dream destinations for pilgrims. Under Saddam Hussein, however, few foreign pilgrims were allowed. With the despot gone, pilgrims are pouring in - and with them the fresh money.

That good business is possible in Iraq is reflected in the performance of new companies, most of which did not exist three years ago. One privately owned mobile phone company is expected to report revenues of more than $500 million this year, a sevenfold increase in three years. Another private firm marketing soft drinks has seen profits double since the end of 2003. The number of luxury cars imported has risen from a few hundred in 2002 to more than 20,000 this year.

But what about continued terrorist attacks? Most foreign investors coming to make money in Iraq shrug their shoulders. "Doing business in any Arab country is always risky," says a Turkish investor who has set up a trucking company and a taxi service. "In some Arab countries, you risk nationalization or straight confiscation by the ruler. In other Arab countries, you must give a cut to one of the emirs. Here, you face possible terrorist attacks. But such attacks are transitory."

The relatively low cost of labor is another attraction to investors. Wages in Iraq, where unemployment is over 30 percent, are less than a quarter of the going rates in Kuwait. Nevertheless, the Iraqi boom appears to be attracting some Iranian laborers from areas close to the border - people who come in for a few days to make some money before returning home.

Although Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government has slowed down the pace of privatization, the foundations of the command economy created by Saddam continue to crumble.

The transition from a rentier economy - in which virtually the whole of the population depended on government handouts - to a free-market capitalist one entails much hardship for some segments of society. Many pensioners and some civil servants find it hard to make ends meet as prices rise across the board. The end of government subsidies on virtually everything - from bread and sugar to gasoline and water - is also causing hardship.

But, judging by the talk in teahouses and the debate in Iraq's new and pluralist media, most people welcome the switch to capitalism and regard it as an exciting adventure.

As trucks are loaded with a variety of imports destined for Baghdad, I ask the drivers what they think would happen if the multi-national force, led by the United States, left Iraq soon. Most shrug their shoulders.

"Why leave?" one driver asks. "Do I abandon the goods that have come from such a long way before they reach their destination?"

This amounts to a plea to "stay the course." The man in Um Qasr does not know that in the United States the phrase "staying the course" drives so many up the wall.

Amir Taheri is a member of Benador Associates.

THE BOOM OUTSIDE BAGHDAD By AMIR TAHERI - New York Post Online Edition: Seven

The Republic of Iraq

Council of Ministers-the governmental communications

Media Relations

Press ReleasePress Release /A press statement /

Tuesday 12-26-2006

To win the prize of the Iraq Program Review 2006 Best international financial restructuring program for 2006

.Iraq ended in an efficient and prompt restructuring of $ 20 billion of its debt to commercial creditors.

.It came off from the criticism of the claimants, bonds, loans, in line with the broad framework set by the Paris Club.

And Republic has been shattered by war impressive creditors speedy solution to issue a new standard bond process led by Citigroup City GroupCity Group Je me Morgan JP Morgan JP Morgan The two magazines in the eyes of the international financial review and Europe, the Middle East and Africa. EMEAHighness ..

The slow start to restructure $ 20 billion of commercial debt Iraq could be contrary to the speed with which the agreement was concluded. On the basis of credentials issued in January 2005, each of Citigroup Je me Morgan Basic Agreement, which the majority of holders of various earthly special debt

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Originally Posted by Caviar Dreams

ãÌáÓ ÇáÊÚÇæä ÇáÎáíÌí

I think you may be a little off the mark from what we were discussing. The GCC has nothing to do with the Marshall plan, and I wasn't comparing WWII to Iraq. The GCC stands for Gulf Cooperation Council. The GCC currently consists of the following Arab nations; Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of Bahrain, and United Arab Emirates. The GCC Charter states that the basic objectives are to effect coordination, integration and inter-connection between Member States in all fields, strengthening ties between their peoples, formulating similar regulations in various fields such as economy, finance, trade, customs, tourism, legislation, administration, as well as fostering scientific and technical progress in industry, mining, agriculture, water and animal resources, establishing scientific research centres, setting up joint ventures, and encouraging cooperation of the private sector.

I didn't forget that the rebirth of Iraq's government and the restructuring of their economy are completely unique to anything our generation has ever seen, and probably unique to what generations before or after us have/will ever see. That's what makes this such a great opportunity! I believe that anything is possible, and it could whiz right by the 1:1 mark, I'm just injecting a little conservative summation of the possibilities that this investment may not have the huge outcome of $3.00-$4.00+ that some are hoping for. Again, I think it is more logical that the initial large revalue will be approximately $.34 and a slow climb to 1:1 before the end of 2007. I hope I'm wrong, and it revalues higher and faster.

I was speaking comparatively. Not implying they are one and the same, only speaking of the fact that all the rules have been tossed out, because this is a completely different circumstance from anything that has ever happened...historically speaking.

Originally Posted by kiko

A significant decrease in the demand for the dollar and the sale offers more than buying
Dargham of Muhammad Ali
Baghdad - (Voices of Iraq)

The volume of demand for the dollar, largely in an auction today, Tuesday, the Central Bank of Iraq, recording the volume hit 2 million and 700 thousand dinars, compared to 16 million and 450 thousand dollars yesterday, Monday,.

Distributed demand by two million dollars in cash and 700 thousand dollars in the form of remittances outside the country covered by the bank fully exchange rate hit 1338 dinars low seven points from yesterday, Monday, the rate of exchange of 1345 dinars.
With the five participating banks submitted bids for the sale of three million and 820 thousand dollars, which is higher than the amount sold by the bank, bought the bank in full at the exchange rate reached 1336 dinars.

He said Abdul Razak as far as economic expert in a statement to the News Agency (Voices of Iraq) said that the arrival of independent exchange rate in the local market as a precautionary measure exceeded the decline in the Central Bank, which generated a great slump in the demand for the purchase offers for the sale of many.

ÇáÏæáÇÑ - (ÅÞÊÕÇÏ) :: Aswat al Iraq :: Aswat al Iraq

Interesting, (had to! )

So we have the lowest exchange rate since the introduction of the NID, and now the few banks participating are taking more dinar out than theyre selling. Transfers abroad? Doubtful... Lower denoms? Quite possible!
We shall see...