Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Originally Posted by shotgunsusie

THE BOOM OUTSIDE BAGHDAD By AMIR TAHERI - New York Post Online Edition: Seven

This has been by far the best article presented to us so far!

I especially like the part of the Americans being fed a "steady diet of negative news"...... Hilarious!

Again, Thank you Susie for this VERY useful post! It has lifted my already High Spirits!!!!

Go RolClub! Go Dinar!!

Originally Posted by Caviar Dreams

I'm pretty excited for this thing to blow out of the water also, but isn't $4+ reaching? Heck, I would be ecstatic with a .30-1 now, and 1-1 within the next couple of years. Everyone keeps quoting the 80's exchange rate of $3.00+, but that was not a recognized rate, it was a rate set by Sadaam. (but weve since learned that saddam had the gold to back that price on the dinar so it was legitimate. the only reason it was not recognized was because they didnt know about the gold he had to back it.)
The GCC will probably have a unified currency before the end of 2008 with full utilization by 2010. Odds are that Iraq will be a key partner in the GCC, and I don't think the GCC will have an average currency exchange over $2.00. (they have already suggested all the countries in the gcc start to raise or revalue their currency so they can all get up to where kuwait is now. that would indicate they are most certainly going to bring everyone up to that rate, and NOT 2 bucks.)

I hope everyone that is expecting a high RV is right, but I guess I prefer to keep my feet on the ground so events that unfold aren't so disappointing as they have been for the last 2 1/2 years. Although, the last two months have been pretty exciting.

Good luck and Happy New Years to all!

i havent been disappointed once in the last 2 and a half years. its all been a forward progress in those 2.5 years. the disappointment for some came when they staked everything on the rumors that came and went. if you wanted to be realistic the time to do that was when all the rumors were circulating and it would have saved you the misery. yes i got excited with each and every one but that was part of the thrill of it all.

see, it all depends on how a person looks at the overall picture. personally i think its been an easy several million to earn as all ive really had to do was sit in a chair and access the internet with a few phone calls thrown in here and there. no back breaking shoveling, no mind boggling equations, no paperwork to fill out, no miles to walk. it cant get much easier than this for earning money and LOTS of money at that.

the outside world has been more than sufficient for me to keep my feet on the ground and if it wouldnt have been for the promise and hope of the dinar i might have gotten very seriously depressed with all the sickness and death ive had to face in the last 2 years. so yes, it does indeed depend on your attitude and how you look at things.

WHILE the American political elite is using Iraq as an ex cuse for fighting internal political wars, a different reality is taking shape in parts of this war-torn nation. Wherever some measure of security is assured - that is to say in more than 80 percent of Iraq - towns and villages long left to die a slow death are creeping back to life.

Nowhere is this slow but steady return to life more startling than in Um Qasr, in the southeast extremity of Iraq on the Persian Gulf. Four years ago, this was a jumble of rusting quays, abandoned houses and gutted buildings. By the spring of 2003, its population had dwindled to a few dozen, along with hundreds of stray dogs. There was even talk of abandoning it altogether.

Today, however, Um Qasr is back in business as a port with commercial and military functions. Hundreds of families that had left after the first Gulf War in 1991 have returned - joining many more who have come from all over Iraq.

The boom in Um Qasr is part of a broader picture that also includes Basra (the sprawling metropolis of southern Iraq), the Shi'ite "holy" cities of Najaf and Karbala, Mandali on the Iranian border and much of Baghdad.

When the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank reported two years ago that the Iraqi economy was heading for a boom, skeptics dismissed it as misplaced optimism. Now, however, even some of those who opposed the toppling of Saddam Hussein admit that many Iraqis share that optimism.

Newsweek has just hailed the emergence of a booming market economy in Iraq as "the mother of all surprises," noting that "Iraqis are more optimistic about the future than most Americans are." The reason, of course, is that Iraqis know what is going on in their country while Americans are fed a diet of exclusively negative reporting from Iraq.

The growing dynamism of the Iraqi economy is reflected in the steady increase in the value of the national currency, the dinar, against the three currencies in direct competition with it in the Iraqi marketplace: the Iranian rial, the Kuwaiti dinar and the U.S. dollar, since January 2006.

No doubt, part of the dinar's strength reflects the rise in Iraq's income from oil exports to almost $40 billion in 2006, an all-time record. But oil alone does not explain all, since both Iran and Kuwait are bigger exporters than Iraq.

The fact that civil-servant salaries have increased by almost 30 percent, with a further 30 percent due to come into effect early next year, also has helped boost demand.

But a good part of the boom is due to an unexpected flow of foreign capital. This has been facilitated by the prospect of a liberal law on direct foreign investments, which exists only in such free-trade parts of the region as Dubai and Bahrain. None of Iraq's six neighbors offers such guarantee for the free flow of capital to and from the country.

Since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, the number of private companies in Iraq has increased from a mere 8,000 to more than 35,000 this year. Each week an average of 60 new companies spring up in Iraq's booming areas. A good part of the investment in southern Iraq, including in Um Qasr, comes from Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.

"Whatever happens, Iraq is Iraq," says a Kuwaiti businessman, building hotels in the south. "Iraq will always remain the country with the world's largest oil reserves and the Middle East's biggest resources of water."

One hears similar comments from local and foreign businessmen investing in real estate in Najaf and Karbala. Over 200 million Shiite Muslims regard the cities as holy. Najaf and Karbala have always been dream destinations for pilgrims. Under Saddam Hussein, however, few foreign pilgrims were allowed. With the despot gone, pilgrims are pouring in - and with them the fresh money.

That good business is possible in Iraq is reflected in the performance of new companies, most of which did not exist three years ago. One privately owned mobile phone company is expected to report revenues of more than $500 million this year, a sevenfold increase in three years. Another private firm marketing soft drinks has seen profits double since the end of 2003. The number of luxury cars imported has risen from a few hundred in 2002 to more than 20,000 this year.

But what about continued terrorist attacks? Most foreign investors coming to make money in Iraq shrug their shoulders. "Doing business in any Arab country is always risky," says a Turkish investor who has set up a trucking company and a taxi service. "In some Arab countries, you risk nationalization or straight confiscation by the ruler. In other Arab countries, you must give a cut to one of the emirs. Here, you face possible terrorist attacks. But such attacks are transitory."

The relatively low cost of labor is another attraction to investors. Wages in Iraq, where unemployment is over 30 percent, are less than a quarter of the going rates in Kuwait. Nevertheless, the Iraqi boom appears to be attracting some Iranian laborers from areas close to the border - people who come in for a few days to make some money before returning home.

Although Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government has slowed down the pace of privatization, the foundations of the command economy created by Saddam continue to crumble.

The transition from a rentier economy - in which virtually the whole of the population depended on government handouts - to a free-market capitalist one entails much hardship for some segments of society. Many pensioners and some civil servants find it hard to make ends meet as prices rise across the board. The end of government subsidies on virtually everything - from bread and sugar to gasoline and water - is also causing hardship.

But, judging by the talk in teahouses and the debate in Iraq's new and pluralist media, most people welcome the switch to capitalism and regard it as an exciting adventure.

As trucks are loaded with a variety of imports destined for Baghdad, I ask the drivers what they think would happen if the multi-national force, led by the United States, left Iraq soon. Most shrug their shoulders.

"Why leave?" one driver asks. "Do I abandon the goods that have come from such a long way before they reach their destination?"

This amounts to a plea to "stay the course." The man in Um Qasr does not know that in the United States the phrase "staying the course" drives so many up the wall.

Amir Taheri is a member of Benador Associates.

THE BOOM OUTSIDE BAGHDAD By AMIR TAHERI - New York Post Online Edition: Seven

Im taking a shot in the dark here, but, anyone besides me think that once the CBI hits their intended mark of 1260, they will hold till the end of the year without any movement until November of 07'?

I know its not what anyone wants to hear but thats what I see coming if we dont get our RV by January. So much information coming from all directions, I dont know what to think anymore.

DanielJay

Originally Posted by shotgunsusie

THE BOOM OUTSIDE BAGHDAD By AMIR TAHERI - New York Post Online Edition: Seven

Ooops..sorry for repost you all..did not see this until now. You are fast on the draw Susie

Originally Posted by DanielJay

Im taking a shot in the dark here, but, anyone besides me think that once the CBI hits their intended mark of 1260, they will hold till the end of the year without any movement until November of 07'?

I know its not what anyone wants to hear but thats what I see coming if we dont get our RV by January. So much information coming from all directions, I dont know what to think anymore.

DanielJay

so much information coming, but what i want to know is what information even remotely suggests nov. 2007?? did you read where the hcl WILL BE implemented jan 07,and the fil? that means all those big companies swarming in with all their money and increasing the standard of living and everything else in iraq. be kinda hard for iraq to hold their currency that low for a year with the oil law and investment law implemented and those billions of barrels of oil flowing out of there. and like i said if thats the case it would be wiser to go over there and spend your dinar rather than hold onto it to cash in later?

so in actuality nov. 07 is rather out of the ballpark so to speak.

Originally Posted by Texas_Tea

Ooops..sorry for repost you all..did not see this until now. You are fast on the draw Susie

actually someone posted it earlier in this thread but didnt include the entire article only hilites.

Hey OSW Mike, I see your logged in, did you see the article about the 10k I posted last night and if so are you hearing that it's being handed out? Also, did I interpret it correctly in them saying to hold off until after the EID to cash in?

Originally Posted by cigarman

Hey OSW Mike, I see your logged in, did you see the article about the 10k I posted last night and if so are you hearing that it's being handed out? Also, did I interpret it correctly in them saying to hold off until after the EID to cash in?

Greetings cm,

No, as of today still no handouts, so if an article was posted, no one in Kurdistan has read it yet? I get daily updates on it, so hopefully it is being held up for the right reasons, a revalue. Sure is a strange way to run a government, announce the 10K and then nothing for months.

Happy Holiday Season to All, Mike

Well made it back from holidays safe and sound, 5 pounds heavier, but safe none the less.
Well I see no RV yet but a continual rise in value. All good. See a hint from cigarman the 10k handout may be happening?
Well got lots of reading to do, so I'll catch up with you all later.

Gloribee