Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Originally Posted by pluginprofits

CURRENCY ANALYSIS

Given the commitment by the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) to maintaining what has become a de facto peg, and the apparent resort to foreign-exchange “rationing” (under other guises) in some instances in the CBI’s daily currency auctions, the average official rate had not fluctuated much below NID1,475:US$1 since the third quarter of 2005. The Central Bank appears reluctant to use its large accumulated gross foreign-exchange reserves (of an estimated US$9.1bn at end-2005) to satisfy dollar demand, and has not been minded to raise local-currency interest rates sufficiently to attempt to stem the pressure on the dinar. In the present security situation, we expect pressure on the currency to remain high. Nevertheless, CBI intervention should maintain a relatively stable rate of around NID1,470:US$1 in 2006-07.


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
ID:US$ (av) 1,477 1,470 1,471 1,471 1,472
Nominal appreciation of ID (%) -0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Real appreciation of ID (%) 25.9 22.6 23.8 23.8 23.9
ID:US$ (end period) 1,477 1,460 #N/A #N/A #N/A

Zawya.com | Middle East Business News and Company Directory

analysis is really no more than an educated opinion... and always subject to 'spin' dependant on the analysist. Like always, some are more positive, some tend to look a little bit more negatively on things.... like this guy.

Originally Posted by pluginprofits

COUNTRY BRIEFING

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

These forecasts were prepared on May 24, 2006

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Interesting,

Welcome to dinarland, and sorry you think we are a click who was ignoring you, but it takes time to read and answer so many posts of concern. The EIU is an independent economic forcast company, in business for profit, and has nothing to do with official governement or CB statements. Report was started last year as I read it months ago, and as with most information, released again and again several times by different entities trying to spin it as new NEWS. This is similar to how press releases are used, a little here, and little there and a little everywhere. (g)

Unless it is an official study from someone of validated economic knowledge, this means little more than a press release. The obviously are in business to attract attention to their web site, just as press releases are designed to do, so we all know what misinformation will do, especially bad news, and it obviously is working.

Good luck to all, Mike

Thanks for the responses..(and calming words Mike)
Bill

ok.. make this post a valid news post.. ok.. i know of one solid supplier who for the very first time in more than a year is currently not processing any orders until after august 14th.. no explanation and could be completely unrelated but is interesting in any case..

ok.. now.. any suggestions on how to keep up with the latest NEWS while ROL club is off the air ?

Dr. Watson: Providing an update on Iraq
By Dr. Stanley Watson
Syndicated Columnist

The tragic war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon rightfully has the attention of the world. However, we must not lose sight of what is going on in Iraq.

An essay by Amir Taheri, former editor of Kayhan, Iran’s largest newspaper, paints an encouraging picture. He asserts that the Iraq we have come to know through television and the printed page is a gross distortion of that country. He decries the constant pessimistic refrain of how the war is going. “The half-truths and outright misinformation that now functions as conventional wisdom have gravely disserved the American people” he wrote. Amir Taheri’s essay runs over seven pages documenting his assertions about the war and the country of Iraq. Here are some of his power points:

— During Saddam Hussein’s rule about 1.2 million people fled to other countries, notably Iran. After Saddam was toppled, over 1.2 million people returned to Iraq and the refugee camps have all but disappeared.

— Over 3,000 clerics have returned from exile. The Shiite seminaries, which enrolled only a few dozen students before, now boast over 15,000 from over 40 countries. The seminaries in Iraq are in contrast to the ones in Iran where a radical, politicized version of Shiism is taught.

— The Iraqi dinar dropped in value in the final years of Saddam Hussein’s rule until it was no longer traded in Iran and Kuwait. The new dinar, issued in 1995, is doing well against the dinars of Iran and Kuwait. Today the Iraqi dinar has also risen in value against the U.S, dollar and the citizens of the neighboring countries view it as solid currency.

— According to the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the Iraqi economy has been doing better than any other in the region. The Iraqi gross product rose to almost $90 billion in 2004 (the latest figures available) and more than double the 2003 figure. Exports increased by more than $3 billion while the inflation dropped from 60 percent to 30 percent, down from 70 percent in 2002.

Agriculture had almost come to a halt as Iraq depended on the oil-for -food program under Saddam. In the past two years agriculture has dramatically come alive and Iraq is now exporting foodstuffs to the neighboring countries.

— The Iraqi people have always been a talkative people but under Saddam Hussein they fell silent out of fear. Today the entire nation is abuzz with conversation on the t.v. talk shows, talk radio, debate in the tea-houses, bazaars, mosques, offices, and in their homes. Free speech has resulted in over 100 privately owned newspapers and magazines, and over two dozen radio and television stations.

— Many in America believe that democracy will not work in Iraq because they have no history of it, no culture to sustain it, and no tradition of self-government. However, before the Soviets replaced it with a leftist dictatorship in 1958, Iraq did have a brief but significant democratic government. Iraq came into being through a popular referendum in 1921. They set up a government modeled after the United Kingdom with a bicameral parliament, several political parties and periodic elections. They also enjoyed a free press. When democracy was squelched in Iraq, almost a quarter of its population went into exile. When the nation became a free society again, many of the exiles and their children came back home.

— Only their taste for freedom can explain why 70 percent of the eligible voters cast their ballots in a series of municipal elections and two general elections. The overall result has been the appearance of 60 political parties and organizations, the only free-trade unions in the Arab world, a new constitution, and the establishment of a broad-based government of national unity consisting of a representative parliament, a prime minister, and a presidential council.

— In spite of the bombings, kidnappings, and sectarian killings, almost 9 million Iraqi children are in school.

— By January of 2006 over 600 state owned hospitals and clinics were in operation, along with dozens of private clinics.

— The insurgents have created much death and destruction but they are being defeated by the U.S. led coalition and the Iraqi military and police force.

Amir Taheri ends his essay with this question: “Is Iraq a quagmire, a disaster, a failure? Certainly not; none of the above. Of all the adjectives used by skeptics and critics to describe today’s Iraq, the only one that has a ring of truth is messy. Yes, the situation in Iraq today is messy. Births always are. Since when is that a reason to declare a baby unworthy of life?” Let’s hope and pray he is right.

A veteran of the war in Iraq reviewed this column before publication and offered this observation: Good article.all the news coming out of Iraq comes out of Baghdad.what is going on there.because the reporters stay safely sequestered in the safe “green zone” of the city. When they report a car bombing or IED in Baghdad, the rest of the country wonders why there was no report of the multiple weapons cache’s destroyed, or about the insurgents that were captured or killed over the night. Further, you rarely hear about the hospitals, schools, etc that the coalition opens in conjunction with the Iraqi government..

The Picayune Item - Dr. Watson: Providing an update on Iraq

Good find pipshurricane,

Lately we have seen nothing but negatives due to Baghdad BS going on, so it was nice to see an insider confirm what we already know, BAD news sells. (g)

Good luck to all, Mike

very good article Pips H....there are always 2 sides to a story....too bad the press just reports the "BAD" news...but like u said Mike,"BAD" news does sell....once they can contain the sectarian killings and have better security,i think we will be home fee....IMHO....GO DINARS...Pat

"Ask the White House" July 27th 2006

Brett McGurk Director for Iraq National Security Council

Erin, from Santa Rosa, CA writes:
Do you feel the Iraqi Dinar is ready for the international market?

Brett McGurk
Thanks, Erin. This is the first economic-related issues I’ve received – and I’d like to use it to broaden the discussion. On the Dinar, specifically, the news is fairly good. Since the introduction of a unified currency and foreign exchange auctions, Iraq’s exchange rate has been relatively stable and this has allowed the Central Bank of Iraq to better manage inflationary pressures. Inflation is still a potential problem in Iraq, but that the Central Bank is working closely with IMF experts to combat these pressures.

The Prime Minister and the President did not discuss the Dinar specifically, but they did discuss the Prime Minister’s economic agenda. It is fair to say that in only two months in office, we have seen a level of activity that surpasses action taken by the previous government over an entire year. Most economic indicators are in positive territory. Iraq has realized its highest oil production and export levels since before the war. Electricity hours of power jumped from 4 or 5 hours per day in Baghdad in April and May to on average 8 hours per day in June and July. Maliki and his new Minister of Electricity has been particular successful in improving security and repair response times, and they discussed these efforts with the President.

On July 12, Maliki presented a far-reaching economic speech to the Council of Representatives. The speech was one of the most reformist offered by an Arab leader in decades and put him on record for change in key areas of the economy. Maliki laid out his plans for new investment laws, anti-corruption measures, restored financial relationships with Gulf States, and initiatives to restore essential services through investment and reform. And he is following up. Maliki has directed each cabinet member to establish a comptroller and submit ethics and financial disclosure agreements. He has submitted an investment law to parliament which should be enacted before the end of this month. Fuel import liberalization laws are also pending in parliament and have been passed by the Council of Ministers. (This is a key initiative to facilitate private enterprise, undermine the black market, and improve the fuel supply.) The government has kept to IMF SBA schedules by increasing non-gasoline fuel prices on June 17, meeting an IMF benchmark.

This is in addition to Maliki reaching out to the international community to make Iraq a reliable economic partner. He has visited Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwiat to encourage them to invest in Iraq. And Iraq and the UN today announced the formal launch of the International Compact with Iraq. This Compact, jointly shared by the Government of Iraq and the Untied Nations, with the support of the World Bank, will, over the next five years, bring together the international community and multilateral organizations to help Iraq implement key reforms and grow fully integrated into the international economic community. You can read the UN's press release about this important initiative.

We are assisting the Iraqis in the economic area. Secretary Guitierrez and Secretary Bodman recently traveled to Baghdad to meet with their Iraqi counterparts, and more such visits will follow in the coming weeks. These efforts are all part of our integrated – political, economic, security – strategy for success in Iraq.

We understand, of course, that the security situation must stabilize for Iraq to truly flourish economically. There is also hard work to do on important piece of legislation, particularly in the petroleum area. But the Prime Minister is identifying the right priorities and moving forward with necessary reforms. During the lunch following the Oval Office meetings, the President heard from a number of Iraqi ministers on their ambitious agendas for increasing investment in Iraq, reforming Iraq’s massive subsidy programs, and bringing targeted job creation opportunities to lagging areas of the country (in particular Anbar Province where young men are prone to recruitment by terrorists and insurgent groups). Remember that unlike the transitional governments of the past three years, this new government may serve until 2010 – so the new ministers have both short and long term strategic goals.



Brett McGurk hosts Ask the White House

Originally Posted by pipshurricane

Dr. Watson: Providing an update on Iraq
By Dr. Stanley Watson
Syndicated Columnist


— The Iraqi dinar dropped in value in the final years of Saddam Hussein’s rule until it was no longer traded in Iran and Kuwait. The new dinar, issued in 1995, is doing well against the dinars of Iran and Kuwait. Today the Iraqi dinar has also risen in value against the U.S, dollar and the citizens of the neighboring countries view it as solid currency.


The Picayune Item - Dr. Watson: Providing an update on Iraq

I was under the impression that the new dinar came out in October of 2003.

did we not hear from new PMof F that the dinar will reval by the end of august?