Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Originally Posted by cigarman

We've had 3 banks get robbed in the last couple of weeks and their shutting the banks. We have that many in one city a day let alone the whole country. Hear me out, let;s say they pass the law tomorrow, with the banks being closed for 3 days it would give them time to make the computer changes for a reval. I'm not saying that's what's happening, but shut down the government bank because of 3 measly robberies?

Iraq Banks Closed Following Heists

The Media Line

Interesting

Yes, this sure makes you wonder, because it feels strange that they will close banks because of like you said cigar, measly robberies. To me this goes hand in hand with the rumour we have had about a reval 13-14th of August.

Perfect timing for the banks to blame it on robberies, but to me they are getting ready for the reval, 3 days with preperation and implementation of new systems. Could this be it??

Originally Posted by Raditz

Yes, this sure makes you wonder, because it feels strange that they will close banks because of like you said cigar, measly robberies. To me this goes hand in hand with the rumour we have had about a reval 13-14th of August.

Perfect timing for the banks to blame it on robberies, but to me they are getting ready for the reval, 3 days with preperation and implementation of new systems. Could this be it??

Yes interesting indeed. A person on the other forum had said his contacts said a reval by the 14th of August. Here we are at the 10th and the banks decide to close for three days thus ending up at around the 14th of August. Hmmmmmm... I am trying to contain my excitement but it sure is getting hard to do!



In fact here he reaffirms his previous statments just a few days ago....

"Just to let everyone know the 14th is almost here - no info has changed from my sources and it is still planned for a rev of .83. - I received a lot of negative mail but like I said it's OK because I understand everyone has been let down before - but not me - rest assured."

Statement by Shakour Shaalan, Executive Director for Iraq
August 2, 2006

8. The reduction of shortages following from the liberalization of gasoline import is expected to contribute to lower inflation, as increasing black market gasoline prices have a major impact on the cost of living indices. The high and increasing rate of inflation, whose dynamics is still quite uncertain as the staff reports, is a key issue for the government. It aims at containing it through structural policies aimed at reducing shortages and monetary policy tightening. Indeed the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), faced with a surging inflation rate has raised the policy rates by two percentage points to 10 percent at the beginning of July, and by another two percentage points more recently, in an effort to slow the inflationary cycle. While the monetary transmission channel is relatively weak, the CBI agrees with staff that strong moves in interest rate will signal the clear determination of the monetary authorities to control inflation dynamics and prevent the consolidation of inflationary expectations. Furthermore, the authorities aim to strengthen the effectiveness of monetary policy through linking deposit rates to the policy rates in the future. Finally, the CBI will consider the possibility of a gradual appreciation of the Iraqi dinar if needed, which could have a positive effect on both inflation and the process of dedollarization.


1. Inflation stands at 52%
2. They have already tightened their monetary policy increasing their lending rates by two percentage points. Much like our Federal Reserve has increased rates to keep inflation lower. But at 52% what else is left? You can’t raise your interest rates that fast or much. You can only lower inflation by one other means, if available, and that would be appreciation in the value of the Dinar.
3. “CBI will consider” I think that this is already decided. Zero Lop is dead and not many other choices.
4. “Gradual appreciation”? How much and how fast? Open market (Float), or PEG to whatever they decide to PEG too. This is the one that will continue to keep us up nights until something happens.
5. “Process of dedollarization” two possible meanings behind this; 1.) Making the IQD more valuable and thus taking away any dollar market on the street. 2.) Un-Pegging the IQD from the dollar. Or both.


Other interesting things out of the overall report. Some are real killers to rumors that have been floating around for years. I always thought the 6 Trillion IQD was wrong.

How many IQD are out there on the street, in circulation: 9.6 Trillion IQD (this includes our investments).

IQD held by the CBI: 14.9 Trillion IQD

Foreign Exchange Assets in CBI Vaults: 17.3 Trillion IQD (not in dinars)
“ “ in Gold: 162 Billion IQD
“ “ other assets: 18.3 Trillion IQD (not in dinars)
“ “ SDR Account: 988 Billion IQD

In other words they have more money then we thought with only 61% of the IQD’s in circulation. Would make me guess that much of what is being held by the CBI, is lower denomination notes not in circulation. Otherwise it doesn’t make much sense to have this much in the vault.

MIL-IRAQ-PLAN-MALIKI
Iraqi PM announces launching of phase two of Baghdad security plan

BAGHDAD, Aug 10 (KUNA) -- Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki officially announced Thursday the launching of phase two of the Baghdad security plan aimed at controlling tension and subduing violence and terrorism.

A statement issued by Al-Maliki, who is also general commander of the armed forces, said that the forces of the defense and interior ministries, supported by the multi-national forces, had launched the second phase of the security plan.

He noted the achievements of the first phase, which had commenced on June 14, 2006, in which a large number of "terrorists and extremists" had been killed and arrested, as well as the confiscation of arms and weapons.

On the second phase, Al-Maliki said it aimed to bring stability and security to Iraqis, thus paving the way for a flourishing economy and luxury, as well as reconstruction.hmmmmm :)))

The prime minister called upon Iraqi factions, leading clerics, and prominent academic and social figures to support the troops in their mission by encouraging people to report suspicious activities of terrorist and follow security instructions.

Moreover, Al-Maliki called upon them to consolidate national unity and renounce sectarianism and counter-terrorism efforts. (end) mhg.

Kuna site|Story page|Iraqi PM announces launching of phase two of Baghd...8/10/2006

Originally Posted by Pippyman

Yes interesting indeed. A person on the other forum had said his contacts said a reval by the 14th of August. Here we are at the 10th and the banks decide to close for three days thus ending up at around the 14th of August. Hmmmmmm... I am trying to contain my excitement but it sure is getting hard to do!



In fact here he reaffirms his previous statments just a few days ago....

"Just to let everyone know the 14th is almost here - no info has changed from my sources and it is still planned for a rev of .83. - I received a lot of negative mail but like I said it's OK because I understand everyone has been let down before - but not me - rest assured."

I've read that guys posts, and there is something more kind of calm and assured about them compared to most other rumours on IIF. My heart rate is rising a little!

Yea, the second phase to security is the reval!!! I especially like the luxury part. He He.

Originally Posted by cigarman

Mike, after reading the new IMF report do you think we're still on course for a sizeable reval? I haven't waivered with my thoughts, because that little voice is still saying that if the banks were keeping their books at .31 and the Imf report verifies that the rate of 1475 is defacto and the inflation is due to the increase yet their holding low on purpose, then we ought to at least see .68 if not the full $1.12 we've been hearing. What ya think?

Interesting,

Yes, all that has happened to get us to this point is now securely in place. The only issue that got in the way was the increase in sectarian violence doe to the Feb. mosque bombing which fired up all sides into a tit for tat killing spree. How stupid these people must be to allow the insurgents directly linked to Iran to create thousands of innocent children and woman being killed. You really have to be pretty stupid to allow that to happen, and I don't think there is a shortage of inept uneducated people in Iraq, so here we are, one last obstacle which is now being addressed full force.

When you study all the facts, especially the increase in fuel prices caused by shortages of refined oil, and the black market, of course prices will rise, and this is why we are seeing 52% inflation over last couple of months. When subsidies were being phased out on oil, I am sure they were planning the revalue to coordinate with this subsidies phase out, but that mosque bombing created more killings than the insurgents were doing, so here we have the reason for delays. The sooner these *****s stop all this blatant killing of innocents, the sooner they will see infaltion brought under control again, and more fuel will be available to stop black market.

The more you research and study all that has happened, the more clear it becomes as to why we are seeing this crazy behavior. Iran is cause of all this infighting between sects, and with so little insurgent activity being reported, it makes you wonder just how much strength there is left after the last months sweep wiped almost all of them out. Now we only hear about the sectarian killings targeting innocent kids on a soccer field, markets, and less so of military attacks.

I heard the reason for delays were related to the above issues, and as one could guess, if Baghdad is where all the major banks are, and there is little security, and banks are being robbed now, all this points to reason for delays. How can they move truckloads of new smaller denomination notes into banks with no security. This would be plain stupid, so we must wait for security to be restored, and who knows, it may be enough so with extra 3,700 U.S. troops brought in, so maybe these forces will be moving the notes to banks while banks are closed. Sure makes sense, but in a country that little does make sense, all we can do is speculate.

There is no secret on how to put a stop on inflation, and on the current violance, and they go hand in hand. Raise the value of dinar and you pull back inflation in a couple months, and in that time, they must concentrate on boosting fuel reserves, electricity, clean water and once this is accomplished, the rest will fall into place, but an immediate improvement in living conditions is the only way to get the masses of asses to stop killing each other.

Good luck to all, Mike

Originally Posted by cigarman

Mike, after reading the new IMF report do you think we're still on course for a sizeable reval? I haven't waivered with my thoughts, because that little voice is still saying that if the banks were keeping their books at .31 and the Imf report verifies that the rate of 1475 is defacto and the inflation is due to the increase yet their holding low on purpose, then we ought to at least see .68 if not the full $1.12 we've been hearing. What ya think?

Mike, (Offshore-Wealth)

What do you think at this point as to the potential amount of reval? Any indications from your sources?

Thanks

Good morning all,

First of all I would like to say to all of you in the UK I applaud your countries intel, and persistance in this latest plot of evil..

Have we heard any news regarding the passing of the FI today?

John

Looks like it will be next week before the reval. Oh well.

Yes there is 12,000 more troops (on top of the troops aready there, a est of 3,500). About a week or so ago I posted that our US troops have a secondary objective. We should see that into play some day next week.