Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Great!!! And What do you consider a low r/v

Originally Posted by Adster

LOL!! ok, gimme a few minutes, just got home.

HMMM,

ADSTERS SIG HAS CHANGED! (A CLUE, A CLUE!):


"Following the recent IMF report I'm thinking a low r/v and a float all the way to millionaire status."

You guys worry to much. It will be .68 to 1.00. What the IMF report isn't telling you is the real cause for inflation and the use of the defacto value currently used. Relax, it'll be ok.

and did the FI get settled today?

looks like the extra troops are for reval.

Reval would not stop the bank robberies (it might increase them). Let me break it down some more. US troops will be/ are protecting Iraqi Banks. Normally the media would be right on it, but I guess its good news

Ok, here you go.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/...06/cr06301.pdf


Bits that stand out are as follows.


The effectiveness of interest rate changes in influencing inflation is thus very limited.9 Economic activity is dominated by cash transactions, and the banking system is largely inert. Few loans are extended and the deposit base is not very active. Raising interest rates will nonetheless signal the authorities’ determination to deal with inflation.

"9 The ability of the CBI to influence monetary conditions will be enhanced when it is able to conduct open market operations, allowing the CBI to reduce the money supply other than by selling dollars at auction.
However, progress in establishing marketable instruments and developing a secondary market remains slow."


37. Inflation remains a serious source of concern. The ongoing insurgency and
shortages of goods, as well as supply disruptions generally in the non-oil economy, will continue to put upward pressure on prices. But it remains important that the CBI take decisive measures to contain it before inflationary expectations become entrenched, either by an effective tightening of monetary conditions and/or by exchange rate action. The CBI will need to tighten monetary conditions further if inflation does not start to come down soon. The government can help by keeping public sector wages and pensions in line with the absorptive capacity of the small, albeit growing, non-oil economy, and by making every effort to prevent supply bottlenecks (especially in the petroleum product market) from destabilizing prices further.
38. For the program to be implemented effectively, corruption must be tackled.


"Finally, the CBI will consider the possibility of a gradual appreciation of the Iraqi dinar if needed, which could have a positive effect on both inflation and the process of dedollarization."



8. Inflation has recently begun to accelerate. The twelve-month rate of inflation
ended 2005 at 31.7 percent, largely unchanged from end-2004 and higher than the 20 percent targeted under the SBA. Inflation has since accelerated, with twelve-month inflation reaching 58 percent by May 2006. The factors driving inflation have been changing over the past two years (Box 1), but the ongoing insurgency, and the resulting acute shortages of certain goods (especially gasoline and other fuel products), continues to play a major role. It is alsopossible that rising international crude oil prices and growing spending power in the economy are pushing up Iraq’s equilibrium real exchange rate. With the nominal exchange rate fixed, the real exchange rate adjustment is reflected in a rising domestic price level.



Sounds like the IMF have given the green light for a r/v. Their recommendation 3 years ago was $0.06.

This is huge, for the IMF to be so positive pro a r/v there's no reason why Shabibi can't get on and do it.

Originally Posted by cigarman

looks like the extra troops are for reval.

Reval would not stop the bank robberies (it might increase them). Let me break it down some more. US troops will be/ are protecting Iraqi Banks. Normally the media would be right on it, but I guess its good news

Do you think we are still on schedule for mid Aug? All logic points it would be perfect timing.. Part of me wants to scream and celebrate and part of me is on hold til its a done deal... officially I'm not doing well stayin calm tho...

Alots changed (for the good ) since then. LOL

Sounds like the IMF have given the green light for a r/v. Their recommendation 3 years ago was $0.06

I don't see why it won't happen this month, and a good chance for next week. As I stated earlier I find the increase in troops around the time the FIL is to be passed and now this IMF recommendation which is absolutely huge to be too coincidental. The troops are there I think to protect the banks with regards to a r/v as well as to help out with security.

Not seen anything on the FIL as of yet, will keep searching. Sure it will be done today, even if they stay up all night!

Iraq Banks Closed Following Heists

http://www.iraqdirectory.com/DisplayNews.aspx?id=1832


Who's thinking what I'm thinking here?! 10 dinars to the first correct answer, lol.