Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Originally Posted by pipshurricane

Iraqi Infrastructure : Foreign Minister attends Iraq reconstruction and development conference
Thursday, September 7th 2006


Iraqi Minister of Foreign Affairs Hoshyar Zebari attended an Iraq reconstruction and development conference and exhibition organized by the Arab Organization for Industry and Mining in cooperation with the Council for Arab Economic Unity and the Iraqi Chamber of Commerce and under the sponsorship of the Arab League Secretariat.

The Minister welcomed the Arab League Secretary-General, Yemen's Foreign Minister and the Secretary-General of the Arab Council for Economic Integrity and the Iraqi Trade Ministry's representative.

The conference addressed Iraq reconstruction efforts with Egyptian companies.

Zebari addressed Iraqi businesspeople and investors, pointing out that there are safe areas to work on in Iraq, especially since the new investment law set forth many privileges that "prompt all to operate and invest in Iraq," according to Iraq's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Foreign Minister attends Iraq reconstruction and development conference

Well, there you go then. Sounds like it has been passed to me. Hopefully it is the real deal and not a translation glitch such as "will set forth" or "has set forth".

Well, PH found that article but thank you anyway readytogo

Sunday will be the day!

Raditz: Sunday will be the day!


Here's to Sunday!

Originally Posted by Adster

Nothing has changed although I did hear $1.17 being thrown around. I still feel the markets will dictate where the dinar goes once it opens onto the world. A smallish r/v and a float. It will rise very quickly IMO.

Time will tell. I'll take either scenario at this point as the results will be similar.

Hi Adam,

Nice to see you posting, missed ya. (g) I agree, I had heard the investment law was settled when Kurdistan's was announced, after all, they wouldn't have two different laws on books, so it was simply not announced given the security issues in Baghdad. All that needs to be done is announced, or as it would be, ratified, which is basically the announcement process as we all know it is passed. Heck, they cannot exist without it, so think of it that way.

As to the revalue, I am still hearing the same I heard way back when from my Kurdistan associates, and that is the old .30/.40 range. This was decided upon over a year ago, but had to be tested against progress in Iraq's economy, and all the pieces we have been seeing fall into place over the pasy year have sometimes pointed to a higher initial revalue, but I am hearing they will stick with original plan and let the market dictate direction of dinar.

We all know the Kurd's are light years ahead of Baghdad in economic stability, just look at the fact their currency was worth 150 times what the Baghdad currency was at time of Saddam capture. This says it all, and the Kurd's have been pushing the envelope ever since. They have major investors lining up, and Baghdad needs the same immediately, and it won't happen unless security is better. This has been the hold up ever since, and the violence escallated knowing this, so with so many corrupt members of parliament to deal with, I think we can all see the real issue here.

It is not possible to deal with such an important peice of puzzle with so many crooks and biased members of parliament, so with many absent, you can bet your bottom dollare their days are numbered, and they know it. We heard the minister list to be dismissed, so imagine how many others are now on the list to be dismissed. This is a problem that must be dealth with, and another good reason for delays as I hear it. There is little we can do about the upcoming period of fast, so next week may be the time to announce all of the above issues, but it will be tight timeline as I see it now.

Good luck to all, Mike

A brief look at the realities of a meteoric currency re-valuation
By David Sotnick
08 September 2006 (ISX-Data.com)

Many have speculated that the Iraqi dinar (IQD) is set for a meteoric rise in 'value', with claims/rumors of the dinar being pegged 'in the near future' at levels ranging from $0.01 USD per dinar to as much as $1.00 USD per dinar.

First, let us examine these claims for what they must be; a scam, pure fiction or, at best, reasoned speculation.

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics
Clearly, the vast majority of dinar-related claims appear to be a blatant scam, preying on the misinformed. Dozens of websites abound with information on the supposed previous value of the dinar, at or above $3.00 USD per dinar. On the surface, these claims are true, if one happily ignores the fact that this arbitrary level was picked by Saddam and his cronies and had absolutely no basing in economic fundamentals. Beware any source claiming these numbers as some kind of indicator of future value.

A second prevalent claim is that, much like the Kuwaiti dinar (KWD) during the first Gulf War, the Iraqi dinar is set for an overnight rise in value on a similar scale. Some simple facts however, reveal that these situations share nothing in common other than geography and the players involved. The Kuwaiti dinar had been historically valued at levels at or near those levels seen immediately after the liberation of Kuwait by Coalition forces (and in the 15 years since). The catastrophic, yet brief dip in the KWD's value was purely reflective of the economic uncertainty that the Iraqi invasion caused. The fact that once the Iraqi's were removed from Kuwait the currency bounced back to 'normal' levels should not surprise anyone. The KWD's worth was founded in decades of economic management by the Kuwaiti central bank, which had a track-record of demonstrating that a high exchange rate was sustainable for the Kuwaiti economy.

In discussing the IQD, a parallel is often made when attempting to justify the 'impending' rise in the value of the Iraqi dinar. Often people will cite (selectively of course) the valuations of several neighboring Gulf countries currency exchange rates. Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain and others are touted as the 'natural' exchange rate for the region, given their similarity in both peoples and of course resources. However, this precludes the fact that Iran, Iraq's closest neighbor and clearly, if one is to look at the situation on the ground, most influential, has an exchange rate of over 9,000 Iranian Rial to the USD. If one feels the need to believe the superficial comparisons made in the positive, one also needs to look at those that may reflect negatively on the Iraqi situation.

A final comparison that you may see involves the supposed rise in value of the Afghanistan Afghani. In short, this currency has not experienced any real gains since the liberation from the Taliban. What it did experience was a phenomenon known as 'zero-lopping', in that the government decided to simply remove a number of trailing zeroes from their printed bills out of sheer convenience. Prices, and the Afghani's exchangeable values, immediately reflected these changes. No rise in value was or has been seen to the respective currency holder, or to the Afghan people.

One needs to remember that physical currency is simply a piece of paper with pretty pictures and an arbitrary number printed on it. Real value can only obtained through the trade of this paper, and its relative worth when compared to other currencies, which brings us to Iraq.

Reasoned Speculation, or How I Determined the Value of the IQD
At this point, in this author's opinion, targeting a specific exchange rate for the IQD is nonsensical, unless the person spreading the rumor has the ear of the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) or has a complete understanding of the macro and micro-economic situation on the ground in Iraq. I would venture that nobody has such a complete picture, and that you would be better served to simply throw darts at a board when it comes to determining values.

Predicting the future of the Iraqi dinar is akin to predicting the future price of a given companies shares, without the 1) information needed to do it properly, 2) a language barrier which prevents all but a few from actually understanding what little information IS out there, and 3) a low-level civil war that makes gathering economic indicators and trends nearly impossible.

So what do we have to go on in terms of the true valuation of the dinar? Most obviously, the historical exchange rates of the current Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) regime. These rates have been steadfastly 'pegged' at close to 1500 IQD per USD now for almost three years. If one is to look at the daily currency auctions posted on the CBI's website, we can see that they seem to be managing the currency quite responsibly, and if anything have managed to stave off downward pressure, rather than stop some magical upward swing that many hope for. Through all the political bickering, sectarian violence and oil disruptions, the rate has traded within a very tight range of values.

In the face of an inflation rate hovering around 50%, the bank has done an admirable job of maintaining the current value of the dinar. One should not be surprised that given the on-the-ground realities, inflation and other economic factors, the dinar is probably slightly OVER-valued today. If the CBI was to back off on it's currency interventions, the value, at least in the short-term, would likely drop.

The Re-Pegging Myth
If the CBI were to decide tomorrow to 're-peg' the dinar to some arbitrary value (i.e. intervene to maintain the auction prices at a higher exchange rate value), of, say, 1 dinar = 1 USD, they would be insolvent within a month. Not to mention the obvious implications that these imaginary re-pegged exchange rates would imply. Imagine the average Iraq citizen instantly becoming a USD millionaire, and then using these riches to flee the country and live like royalty elsewhere in the region. Or the range of weapons that the insurgents could then acquire with their billions of dinar/USD. Or the fact that individual currency speculators holding in some cases billions of dinar, now magically worth billions of USD, would have a net worth almost equal to Iraq's entire GDP (estimated to be ~94 billion for 2005). Ridiculous.

One should expect a loosening of the constraints of exchange on the dinar over the coming months/years, and one should expect some movement when this happens. One should not expect to suddenly be worth more than the entire country of Iraq.


Hope he's wrong!!!

Well, he has no idea what he is talking about!

I am sorry if this is a repeat. I did not have time to read through everything this morning. I found this in the Iraq Directory newsletter this morning.

The Central Bank will actively operate on Real-time gross settlement (rtgs) system

The Central Bank will actively operate on Real-time gross settlement (rtgs) system
02/09/2006
Source: Al-Zawraa


The Iraqi Central Bank announced the actual operation of the system timely adjustments (rtgs) during an extensive meeting held with officials of the World Bank, Al-Rafidain, Al-Rashid and the managers of three commercial private banks.

A source at the Central Bank of Iraq in said that the results of this preliminary work rules were satisfactory and fulfilling ambition. It is hoped in the near future from Ministry of Finance to participate in this system with the gradual entry of other banks operating in Iraq and as the system will be a better opportunity for the Iraqi banking system and also all users of its services; including the speed transfers and banking-related communications within Iraq.

And regarding the way to operate the (rtgs), the source pointed out that the Central Bank of Iraq established a new department for this purpose that will be a branch of the Directorate General of accounts in the bank. While the technical aspects of the system will be assigned to the computer department.

The source added that there is coordination with the general company of communications and mail in the Ministry of Communications to facilitate the communication network between the banks and Central Bank. As for funding this project, the source clarified that it is funded by the World Bank to develop a system of payments to the Iraqi Central Bank in particular, banking transactions in general.

This guy's many points(from Tim's post #675) have been discussed, dismissed and derailed here on this forum more times than I can count.

I am glad to say that he did not phase me in the least. Thanks to all you Dinar Genuises for all the good, reliable and dependable information you have fed us over the past months. Without you guys, this report would've put me in a basket.

Still excited and watching!

Monica

Originally Posted by readytogo

This guy's many points(from Tim's post #675) have been discussed, dismissed and derailed here on this forum more times than I can count.

I am glad to say that he did not phase me in the least. Thanks to all you Dinar Genuises for all the good, reliable and dependable information you have fed us over the past months. Without you guys, this report would've put me in a basket.

Still excited and watching!

Monica

Funny,

When you start to read this rehashed old news, you have to laugh. If you note in the beginning, he claims that the $3.00 dinar value was arbitrary value as if pulled out of a rabbits hat by Saddam, when in fact this is not even close to being true. World economic experts were brought in to place an educated value on dinar, by far, this was not aribitrary for Saddam knew nothing about economics or how to run a country. LOL

Once you read this, you know exactly what this person is looking for, HITS to HIS WEBSITE is my first thoughts. (g) It has been well documented that those who want hits want to generate profits, so the first thing I would do is post the same rehashed nonsense this guy did. Think about it, why would officials of government be talking about revalue if it were not even remotely possible as this clown has posted? I saw nothing in this opinion that hasn't been debunked by all of us before. We are far more informed that this clown is, I can assure you.

Good luck to all, Mike

Hey you wonderful Moderators here in DinarLand!

I found a post on iif that agrees with susies posts. She claims contacts among the Kurds. Can I please copy and paste here?