Thread: Archive News - Iraqi Dinar Think Tank - 01/10/09 - 27/03/10

Iraq PM takes lead in key province, Kurds hold off 'Change'

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's bloc built on its gains in Iraq's parliamentary election, initial results showed on Sunday, as he took a comfortable lead in the key province of Basra. In northern Iraq, the country's Kurds also appeared to be voting for more of the same, with the traditional parties holding off a new challenger.

Though the figures remain far from complete, Maliki's State of Law Alliance has taken strong leads in two of Iraq's three biggest constituencies, and remains ahead in six provinces overall. The results from Iraq's second parliamentary election since Saddam Hussein's ouster in 2003, come less than six months ahead of a US downsizing which will see all American combat troops leave the country by the end of August. Figures released on Sunday also showed, however, that secular ex-premier Iyad Allawi, a Shiite like Maliki, was ahead in the Sunni bastion of Anbar, the fourth province in which Allawi's Iraqiya bloc has a lead. According to the latest results, State of Law held a lead of around 100,000 votes in Basra, with the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), a coalition led by Shiite religious groups, coming in second. Iraqiya was a distant third.

Basra, a predominantly Shiite southern province, accounts for 24 parliamentary seats in the 325-member Council of Representatives, behind only Baghdad, which has 70 seats, and Nineveh in northern Iraq with 34. Sunday's news comes a day after initial figures put Maliki comfortably in the lead in Baghdad, with INA and Iraqiya neck-and-neck for second place in the election's main prize. Along with Basra and Baghdad, State of Law was also ahead in the southern Shiite provinces of Babil, Najaf, Karbala and Muthanna, while INA leads in Maysan and Diwaniyah, also mostly Shiite southern provinces.

Iraq's election commission announced on Sunday that Iraqiya had a strong lead in Anbar, Iraq's biggest province by geography and the centre of a bloody insurgency in the early years of the US-led occupation. Elsewhere, Iraqiya leads in Nineveh and the mostly Sunni central provinces of Diyala and Salaheddin.

Iraq's proportional representation electoral system makes it unlikely that any single grouping will clinch the 163 seats needed to form a government on its own, and analysts expect protracted coalition building.

Meanwhile, Kurdistania, an alliance of the Kurdish autonomous region's two long-dominant parties, held off a new challenger in the northern Iraqi province of Dohuk, in the early results. Kurdistania, comprised of regional president Massud Barzani's Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, secured 170,690 votes. The alliance was followed by the Etihad Islamic Union with 31,053 votes and the new party Goran ("Change" in Kurdish) with 12,570, in the contest for Iraq's northernmost province and its 11 seats in parliament.

Earlier figures also put Kurdistania ahead in the region's Arbil province, the seat of an Iraqi Kurdish regional government. Complete results from the Iraqi election are expected on March 18 and the final ones -- after any appeals are dealt with -- will likely come at the end of the month.

http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidAN...20%27Change%27

CBI sells 189m on Sunday

The Central Bank of Iraq’s (CBI) dollar sales dropped to $189.830 million in its daily auction on Sunday, compared to $251.565 million in the previous session.

“The demand hit $25.450 million in cash, covered at an exchange rate of 1,183 Iraqi dinars per dollar, and $164.380 million in foreign transfers outside the country, covered at an exchange rate of 1,173 Iraqi dinars per dollar,” according to a CBI news bulletin received by Aswat al-Iraq news agency.

None of the 17 banks that participated in today’s session offered to sell dollars.

http://en.aswataliraq.info/?p=128506

Germans in Basra for investments

Basra Governor Shaltagh Abod discussed on Sunday with the German ambassador to Iraq investment opportunities in the province.

“The visit of the German delegation aims at developing mutual relations,” Abod told Aswat al-Iraq news agency.

He said that Basra will get huge funds from oil revenues and will rely on major industrial countries to develop its infrastructure.

http://en.aswataliraq.info/?p=128514

Transport minister urges Dutch firms to invest in Iraq’s transport sector

Iraqi Minister of Transport Amer Abduljabbar reviewed with the Dutch ambassador in Baghdad vistas of cooperation and means of increasing them, urging Dutch firms to invest in the country’s transport sector, according to a ministry release on Sunday.

“Minister Abduljabbar briefed the ambassador of the kingdom of the Netherlands on the current investment projects and asked him to upgrade the bilateral air transport agreement signed between the two countries,” read the release as received by Aswat al-Iraq news agency.

The minister also called for “opening an airline linking the two countries so as to facilitate the return of Iraqi emigrants or Iraqis’ visits to their relatives in the Netherlands.

http://en.aswataliraq.info/?p=128527

Let’s start with Maliki’s statement from 3 days ago:


28 February 2010


“Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said on Sunday that the process to re-evaluate the Iraqi dinar has to do with economic conditions that have to be strengthened.


"’The Iraqi dinar has all the reasons to grow stronger thanks to an increase in revenues and development of the economy,’ Maliki said in response to some questions through the National Information Center.

"’The government would not rush matters but would rather work on finding all the guarantees to render this measure a success. The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI)Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) is currently entrusted with drawing up a study on the whole issue and would give its decision soon,’ said the Iraqi premier.

“The Iraqi dinar's exchange rate is suffering from low value against foreign currencies as a result of decades of wars and economic embargo that brought the local currency's exchange rate to the rock bottom from three dinars per dollar in the late 1970s and 1980s to 3,000 dinars per dollar after the 1990 invasion of Kuwait, followed by a 13-year crippling sanctions regime.

“The exchange rate fell even more after 2003 to reach 1170 dinars per dollar due to the CBI's policy of daily auction, in effect for more than five years now.

“The policy was lambasted by several economists on the grounds that these auctions do not give the real value of the country's local currency.

© Aswat Aliraq 2010

http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidZA...01/?query=iraq


Now allow me to summarize this statement and set it up for Shabibi’s statement made yesterday morning.


Before I begin I want to commend gankans for his wonderful analysis of these statements and for correctly recognizing that they are positive indeed. I am going to tag along with his analysis but the ending I give you will knock your socks off!


First we need to understand that these two statements are being made by the two most important people in Iraq with respect to the dinar and its coming revaluation.


We start with Maliki’s statement that this is “the process to re-evaluate the Iraqi dinar”. As far as I know this is the first time that Maliki has made a direct statement on the possible revaluation of the dinar. We see that he is not only confirming that it will happen, a first, but also stating that this is a “process” that has been going on for some time. We know from my “Chronology” thread that this process began in 2005.


Next we see that Maliki is confirming something that has ALREADY OCCURRED: "The Iraqi dinar has all the reasons to grow stronger thanks to an increase in revenues and development of the economy.” We see two important points here; first, that he believes that the dinar needs to be revalued in order to make it “stronger”; and second, that the “revenues and development of the economy” are justification for this revaluation.


In the next quote we see that this GOI is in concert with the CBI and that they have put into place “guarantees to render this measure a success”. What this means is that Maliki is confirming that this process, as he calls it, is nearly completed.


Next, Maliki announces that he has instructed Shabibi to perform a study on this matter (the RV) and that Shabibi “would give its decision soon.”


Finally, we see that Maliki is definitely a supporter of the RV with his statement that, “The Iraqi dinar's exchange rate is suffering from low value against foreign currencies.”


We now have the Prime Minister on record indicating that plans for a revaluation of the dinar have been worked on since 2005, that the dinar is in need of revaluation, that the CBI is entrusted with seeing that it takes place, and that the dinar needs to be increased in value substantially for it to compete with foreign currencies.


Let’s now look at the interest and yet short response made the very next day by Shabibi, the head of the CBI.


Sinan Al-Shabibi - CBI Governor says current exchange rate reasonable


“The governor of the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) on Monday said that the current exchange rate (1,170 Iraqi dinars per dollar) is reasonable, adding that the bank has enough foreign reserves to defend the exchange rate.

“ ‘The CBI is adopting a managed floating policy of exchange rate, through which a reasonable exchange rate is fixed,’ Sinan Al-Shabibi told Aswat al-Iraq news agency.

“’The current exchange rate is reasonable and stable and can be defended by our vast foreign reserves, totaling $43 billion U.S. dollars at the moment,’ Shabibi explained.”


Now I promised you that you would all be surprised and I am going to deliver on that promise.


Here is the first quote from Shabibi. It needs to be seen as a “response” to Maliki’s statement from the day before.


“The CBI is adopting a managed floating policy of exchange rate, through which a reasonable exchange rate is fixed.”


In an effort to make this statement perfectly clear to you all I will add just one word to the statement that will make evident the intent of the statement. That word is “now”. Here is the revised statement:


“The CBI is now adopting a managed floating policy of exchange rate, through which a reasonable exchange rate is fixed.”


Before you all get in a huff because of my addition of this small word, let me just say that you will not be disappointed in a few minutes. I am proposing that Shabibi is referring to the NEW rate here, and not the OLD rate. He is stating that the CBI is NOW adopting a NEW exchange rate, that is will be on a “managed float” basis, and that it is “reasonable” and “fixed”. This is consistent with the actions of the CBI during the last few years in which the OLD rate was on a “managed float” and essentially “fixed”.


Here is the point: the OLD rate is not “reasonable”! We know this to be the case because Maliki himself said so the day before, and had instructed Shabibi to do a study to determine a rate that was “reasonable” and “sustainable”. Therefore we may confidently conclude that Shabibi is ANNOUNCING THE RV in this statement, and that he is referring to the NEW rate. I will now show with the next quote that this is the correct understanding of his statement.


“The current exchange rate is reasonable and stable and can be defended by our vast foreign reserves, totaling $43 billion U.S. dollars at the moment,’ Shabibi explained.”

Here I would also like to change just one word in this translation from the Arabic. In doing so you will see that the meaning of Shabibi’s statement is not only clear, as well as a response to Maliki from the day before, AND is consistent with prior statements from the CBI regarding the coming RV.


“’The new exchange rate is reasonable and stable and can be defended by our vast foreign reserves, totaling $43 billion U.S. dollars at the moment,’ Shabibi explained.”


The word changed is from “current” to “new”. Is this reasonable? Yes, it is. The “current” rate is placed in juxtaposition to the OLD rate in this statement. How do I know? Because, if the word “current” actually referred to the OLD rate, the remainder of the sentence wouldn’t make sense. The IQD has been defended quite adequately for the last few years; but it is not “reasonable”, as Maliki AND Saleh of the CBI AND Zubaidi of the Ministry of Finance have stated since 2005.


Therefore we now see that Shabibi is not only echoing the Prime Minister’s statement from the day before; he is also ANNOUNCING THAT THE RV IS DONE! And furthermore, against his critics, he states unequivocally that the country has adequate reserves to support the new rate.


I believe that the rate will be announced within either the next 24 hours, prior to the election, or immediately after the election.

The election has been over for a week, now just waiting for the results ??

Originally Posted by littleripper

The election has been over for a week, now just waiting for the results ??

Yes, waiting for results. The final results will not be known until the end of March.

Early indications show Al-Maliki taking a 'small lead.'

Kuwaiti MP: I do not wish stability for Iraq and I am continuing sectarian conflict

Kuwaiti deputy Mubarak Seneidah he does not want stability in Iraq and is pleased that the continuing sectarian conflict (Asahm on Halhal and shot).

Seneidah wrote an article expressing his feelings about Iraq and the Iraqis, which expresses his happiness for the continuation of sectarian strife and discord and differences, and says:. It is true that the view that the mind to wish them 'happiness and distance from us', but wishes to be a wall between us and them steel firewall Egypt to Gaza, a sign of normalization of relations and cooperation with Iraq in the future.

He said (though the decision to hand worked steel barrier between us and them more solid barrier of steel, which surrounded the Gaza Strip by Egypt .. and even people of Gog and Magog They can not kilt or penetration).

http://www.aliraqnet.net/news_view_4123.html

Control 26 million dinars from the local currency counterfeit north of Tikrit

Security forces have arrested a gang consisting of 4 people to rig the national currency in the district of North SHIRQAT Tikrit in Salahuddin province.

A security source said a reporter The process of the arrest of gang members were After receiving information from one of the detectives According to the category of illegally rigging the currency (25) thousand dinars, based in one of the homes on the edge of elimination Shirqat based. After the raid on the house has been set amount (26) million Iraqi dinars from the fake money.

http://al-iraqnews.net/new/amniaah/58538.html

Office of Financial Supervision issued final account of Republic of Iraq for year 2007

discussed the financial oversight board to discuss the report of the Cabinet and the final account of the Republic of Iraq 2007.

A source in the Office of Financial Supervision, told the independent press (Iba), the council decided at its sixth session, chaired by the President of Supreme Audit Abdul Basit Turki Saeed version of the final account adjustments to the observations and reservations about budget revenues and the accumulated surplus.

He explained that the accumulated surplus stood at (060 52) Fifty-two trillion and sixty billion dinars and the imprest account (998 20) Twenty trillion nine hundred and ninety-eight billion dinars and Trust Account (101 4) four trillion, one hundred and one billion dinars.

The source noted that the final account will be submitted to the Council of Ministers, the House of Representatives and the Finance Ministry, noting that the BSA had received this data in its final form from the Ministry of Finance on 24/11/2009.

http://www.ipairaq.com/index.php?nam...onomy&id=22529