Thread: Archive News - Iraqi Dinar Think Tank - 01/10/09 - 27/03/10

Hassan Shammari: Sharing lists President in the next government depends on nature

Said the candidate for the National Coalition Hassan Shammari The participation of four main menus in the form the next government will depend on identifying the type of participation, likely to be involved through the political council for national security.

http://www.radiodijla.com/cgi-bin/ne...?id=2010-03-25

Rasheed al-Azzawi rule out forming a government with the participation of four main menus

Ruled out the leader of the Accordance Front, Rashid al-Azzawi possibility of forming a government that includes lists of the four winning a majority of seats in parliament, referring to the difficulty of sharing positions, including the sovereign.

http://www.radiodijla.com/cgi-bin/ne...?id=2010-03-25

Hoshyar Zebari, withdraw from the Sirte summit and Iraq to reduce its level of representation

According to diplomatic sources said on Thursday that Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, withdrew from the preparatory meeting to prepare for the Arab summit of the 22 in Sirte, Libya, east of protest against the reception of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi and a delegation from the Baathists.

She noted, "Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki asked Zebari, who will represent Iraq as well as in the summit meetings, to withdraw immediately after the meetings on Thursday and cut the Iraqi representation at the summit to the level of Permanent Representative to the Arab League."

She explained that the Secretary-General of the Arab League, Amr Moussa, the intervention in order not to reduce the level of representation of Iraq during breakfast on Thursday morning with Zebari, also appealed to many ministers not to withdraw the Iraqi minister during a closed session of the Ministerial Council of the University on Thursday afternoon, but stressed that the instructions given to him so far is to leave immediately after the meetings on Thursday.

The meeting of Arab foreign ministers had begun on Thursday in the city of Sirte, east of Libya as a prelude to the regular Arab summit scheduled for the 22 on Saturday and Sunday.

http://www.radiodijla.com/cgi-bin/ne...?id=2010-03-25

Maliki Aide Warns of Postvote Violence if Sunni Group Wins

A top aide to Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki warned that violence would erupt across the majority Shiite country should the Sunni-heavy alliance led by Ayad Allawi win the parliamentary election held earlier this month.

Tensions are rising in response to preliminary vote totals from the March 7 election that indicate a neck-and-neck race between Mr. Maliki's political coalition and the bloc led by Mr. Allawi in an election seen as a barometer of stability in the fragile democracy. Final results are due to be released Friday, and Shiites are nervous that they could lose their brief lock on power gained in 2003 after decades of oppression under Saddam Hussein.

That threat has motivated Mr. Maliki to turn his back on his campaign stance as a nationalist politician and help build a coalition among the country's fractious Shiite parties to ensure that his co-religionists retain control of the next government, said Ali Al Adeeb, the deputy general secretary of Mr. Maliki's Dawa Party and a top vote recipient on his electoral slate.

The strong challenge to Mr. Maliki by Mr. Allawi's Iraqiya bloc has sparked a rise in sectarian rhetoric among Shiite politicians and voters alike. During the past week, supporters of Mr. Malki and Shiite parties who ran on a separate slate called the Iraqi National Alliance have mounted angry street protests. They have accused Mr. Allawi as well as the electoral commission of a shadowy plot to disenfranchise their voters on orders from the region's leading Sunni governments. In response, Mr. Allawi's aides have called for respect for the rule of law and the electoral commission's work. The independent body, which is appointed by parliament, has been praised by both U.S. and outside observers for its independence.

However, Mr. Adeeb, in an interview, repeated many of the conspiracy theories that have gained currency around Shiite mosques and neighborhoods since the vote. He said members of Dawa and the other Shiite parties wouldnt accept the legitimacy of an Iraqiya victory.

"It's not possible that Iraqiya, a small party with hardly any seats in the current parliament, could suddenly be declared the most popular party and win [the election]. The only way it is possible is by fraud. In the case of such an outcome, the threat of violence is a legitimate one," Mr. Adeeb said.

Political disagreements between Shiite and Sunnis and a boycott by Sunnis in the previous national election in 2005 ushered in more than two years of bloody internecine violence. Despite this history, U.S. officials here say they aren't worried that the country will descend into violence again. In meetings with U.S. Ambassador Christopher Hill and Gen. Ray Odierno, the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, earlier this week, Mr. Maliki and other top Iraqi politicians assured the Americans that they would respect the rule of law when pressing any complaints in the election process, according to an official familiar with the meetings.

"[Politicians] will say and do anything [during a political race]. The real question is will they take any action to back up their words. So far, we don't see any indication that anything is amiss," the U.S. official said.

In his interview, Mr. Adeeb made clear that sectarian issues were his boss's chief focus right now. On Tuesday, Mr. Maliki held high-level talks with aides to Moqtada Al Sadr, the fiery cleric whose armed militias fought U.S. forces in southern Iraq and Baghdad during the height of the insurgency. Mr. Maliki rebuffed calls by other Shiite parties before the election to run on a united Shiite slate. But Mr. Maliki is willing to combine forces now "to ensure the will of the Iraqi people, Mr. Adeeb said.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...022631180.html

Towards the modernization of the Central Bank of Iraq

Expect an expert in the Iraqi Central Bank get a positive effect for the foreseeable future in the monetary policy of the bank, to combat inflation by raising the Iraqi dinar exchange rate by using monetary tools available, and up to contain inflation pressures generated by the total expenditure

The Director-General of the Center for Statistics and Research in the Iraqi Central Bank, the appearance of Mohammed Saleh, the Bank seeks in the context of reforms to establish an infrastructure of central banking in Iraq, is more modern and appropriate for future developments in the Iraqi banking climate, by strengthening the payment systems that link the bank Central banks operating through an automated system, adding that this mechanism works to enable the central bank from lending banks a day, when exposed to some of the problems of liquidity, as well as reduce the risk of manipulation and fraud of such a mechanism to contain a high degree of secrecy and confidentiality.

Saleh revealed other actions related to development operations auction bonds and encourage the central bank transfers, open market operations, emphasizing the depth of its impact on liquidity and an orderly growth in the masses of cash.

He explained that the sales in the auction, one rose to 200 billion Iraqi dinars for each auction, after it was 100 billion dinars for each auction before.

He also called for in the same context for a fiscal policy consistent with the Central Bank's monetary policy, leading to economic stability based on encouraging investment spending and reduce consumer spending, which should help in the operation of their idle capacity in the economy, whether material or human, as well as the fight against poverty and care for the poor within the system of social protection, stressing the need to focus consumer spending on these sectors, which requires re-consideration of the support activities that must be given priority by the production sector, but not at the expense of fact, service and health and education
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http://translate.google.com/translat...ate.google.com

Washington denies support to any candidate in forming the new Iraqi government

The American Embassy in Iraq denied on Thursday any support of Washington to candidates or Iraqi political entities in forming the next government.

"We saw the reports and the statements that emerged lately in the Iraqi Media that claim that the United States is supporting some candidate or bloc for the next new government", Philip Frayne, Spokesman of the American Embassy said.

"The Iraqi people voted in free elections on the 7th of March, it is up to the Iraqi parties to form their new government", he explained.

"US are prepared to work with any new government that is being formed, statements that claim the opposite are not true". He added.

Some Arabic and local Media reported news according to which the US is working through its Embassy in Baghdad to exclude some political figures from the decision-making positions to pave the way for other figures to undertake the next government.

http://www.aknews.com/en/aknews/4/128642/

Iraq’s election and the future balance of power in the Gulf Region

If the fragile democracy of Iraq holds and Iraq does not lapse into a civil war, a united and stable Iraq will have far reaching consequences for the balance of power in the Middle East. No matter which way the wind of the election blows, as long as the election dust will settle among sectarian-ethnic based coalitions peacefully, the end result is likely to bring about a government that will radically alter the precarious balance of power in the region.

There are three likely scenarios. First, Iraq balances with Iran; second, Iraq balances against Iran; and third, Iraq takes no sides. However, the most likely scenario is an Iraqi-Iranian alliance.

Let us start with the first and most likely scenario, an Iraqi-Iranian axis. Such an alliance would have been unthinkable not long ago. But thanks to democracy the relationship between Baghdad and Tehran has transformed 180 degrees. Despite eight years of deadly war, which claimed many hundreds of thousands of causalities and inflicted economic damages worth hundreds of billions of dollars on both sides, today Iraq and Iran are eager to put the dark past behind them.

It is worth remembering that from the perspective of Iran Saddam’s regime did not represent the Iraqi nation. The Iranian mullahs abhorred Saddam for many reasons, not the least for his terror campaign against the Shiite clerical establishment and suppression of the Shiite community in Iraq. Iran played host to many Shiite Iraqi exiles, including the current prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki.

In the sanctuary of Iran, Maliki spent years plotting against and supporting efforts to topple Saddam. Today Maliki seeks to strengthen ties with Iran. In recent years, leaders and top officials of both countries are busy exchanging visits. The Shiite-led government of Maliki rolled out the red carpet when Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited Iraq. Behind him, Ahmadinejad left scores of signed agreements in areas of trade, industry and transport. For his part, Maliki and President Jalal Talabani made several visits to Iran. Taking into account that the two leading coalitions in this election are the State of Law of Maliki and the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), a bloc comprised of Shiite groups, it is unlikely that the relationship with Iran would reverse course.

The second scenario is Iraq will once again balance with the Gulf States against Iran. This scenario is unlikely for the same reasons given above, namely the replacement of the old-Tikriti regime with a Shiite order. There is another reason as well. Small and large Gulf states neighboring Iraq have learned a lesson from the Iraqi invasion and occupation of Kuwait: A well-armed and strong Iraq cannot be trusted, especially under the leadership of a Shiite government. Mistrust has already poisoned the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Maliki’s Iraq. Saudi Arabia is yet to reopen an embassy in Iraq. And while Maliki made one visit to the kingdom, neither the Saudi king nor any high ranking Saudi officials traveled to Iraq. The chilly relationship between the two countries can be read in the words of Maliki: “There will be no other initiatives on our part as long as there is no sign from Saudi Arabia that it wants to have good ties.”

The third scenario is Iraq takes no sides. It is the most likely scenario if Iraq is thrown into chaos by the outcome of the election. An instable and torn Iraq is an inward looking Iraq. If Iraq doesn’t slip into a chaos and rise, then this is the least likely scenario. As the lesson of history has shown -- strong states bid for power. Iraq possesses ingredients that can transform it into a major regional power. It has a good size population and sufficient human resources. And most of all, it has vast amount of oil resources. It sits on the world’s third largest proven petroleum reserves after Saudi Arabia and Canada.

Its vast amount of oil resources makes it an indispensable player in the international oil market, and an ally to reckon with in the volatile internal politics of OPEC. Iraq has the resources to ally with Iran and break the monopoly of Saudi Arabia over oil prices. Moreover, with oil wealth Iraq can easily afford to rebuild its military capabilities. When Iraq recovers economically and militarily, it cannot help but attract the attention of friends and foes. Iraq’s weight will be felt by its neighbors, and no regional player could ignore it, not even Iraq itself.

However, there is no doubt that before it can tip the regional balance of power, the Iraqi government has to settle the internal balance of power between the Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds. One thing for sure, however, all key players in the region are aware that a new political reality is around the corner. They are desperately trying to reshape this new reality by influencing the Iraqi election. But the die has been cast. Tomorrow’s Iraq will not turn its back on Iran, and Iran knows it.

Islam Qasem holds a PhD in International Relations and teaches at Leiden University in the Netherlands. His areas of expertise are domestic and international politics of the Middle East.

http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publ...cle_5729.shtml

Iraq muddies oil plans with OPEC quota talk
OPEC quota remarks raise questions over pace of Iraq growth

Iraq’s oil minister has raised questions over the country’s planned energy expansion by indicating Baghdad would consider OPEC output curbs that may keep supply well short of ambitious capacity targets. After Baghdad signed contracts to add around 10 million barrels per day (bpd) to its oil supply, tough talks were expected within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on an eventual output target for Iraq.

But Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani seems to have jumped straight to the end game before even sitting down at the negotiating table with his fellow ministers. In Vienna for an OPEC meeting last week, Shahristani said Baghdad would participate in OPEC agreements to curb oil supply when output reached 4 million bpd, some 8 million bpd short of Iraq’s envisaged target. An OPEC quota for Iraq of around 4 million bpd would prove more supportive for oil prices in the medium term than was the prospect of the country remaining outside the system as it expanded supplies to near 12 million bpd. With the group’s market share expected to rise in future, Iraq’s return to OPEC limits would strengthen its hand.

“Bringing Iraq into the quota system and managing the growth and sharing the growth is constructive to bullish for prices,” said Mike Wittner, global head of oil research at Societe Generale.

“The supply and demand trends are heading in OPEC’s direction and they should be able to reach agreement.”

Oil is trading around $80 US a barrel now and investors expect it to trade at $91 by December 2018, suggesting little concern among investors that supply would be scarcer later this decade than it is now. Iraq is one of OPEC’s founder members but has been exempt from quotas for years due to sanctions and war.

Baghdad holds ambitious deals with the world’s biggest energy companies to boost output to around 12 million bpd in around seven years from just 2.5 million bpd. The petrodollars are to bankroll Iraq’s reconstruction. Oil ****utives said the prospect of an OPEC quota for Iraq early into that expansion raised big questions over the contracts.

“Either he doesn’t believe in the contracts he’s signed, or he’s saying it’s not his problem,” said an ****utive at an oil firm which recently signed a deal to work on Iraq’s fields.

“But it is his problem, because it is Iraq’s problem. They still have to pay for all this capacity.”

Shahristani may soon be in no position to bargain for Iraq. He may be replaced when a new government is formed after Iraqi elections earlier this month. Other Iraqi officials downplayed the issue, saying it would be a few years before Iraq reached 4 million bpd anyway.

“We are talking about 2.5 to three years for Iraq to reach 4 million bpd,” said Thamir Ghadhban, the top energy adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

In any case, increasing oil output rapidly was always likely to put Iraq at odds with the producer group’s aims to keep oil demand and supply in balance and bolster prices by limiting supplies. Iraq’s OPEC quota used to be similar to that of Iran, which has a limit of 3.34 million bpd. OPEC quotas are based partly on reserves, and Iraqi reserves — the world’s third-largest — are a little smaller than Iran’s. The subject is tricky for OPEC as the talks would need to balance the plans of many members to expand supplies and may need to address the unhappiness of some, such as Nigeria and Angola, with their current quotas. But OPEC officials have stressed that the group would seek to accommodate Iraq. A smooth reintegration of Iraq would enhance the group’s image for market management.

“If and when Iraq gets to the stage where it needs a quota, OPEC will discuss it,” said an OPEC delegate. “It should not be a problem.”

That may not be the case for the oil companies expecting to expand Iraq’s oil industry. After years of lacking easy access to the Middle East’s easy-to-produce oil, firms jumped at the chance to work in Iraq when Baghdad offered contracts on its biggest fields in two oil auctions last year. The return rate on the contracts depends on firms hitting their targets fast. A cap on oil output would make that impossible and diminish returns. Deals would have to be renegotiated for oil firms to avoid losses.

“On the face of it, this could be a big blow to firms with contracts,” said Colin Lothian, senior analyst for the Middle East at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. “But more likely, Iraq will wait until production reaches 4 million bpd at least before it considers its position.”

There was provision in the contracts that does not penalize contractors for government-set output limits, Lothian said. The issue was whether, with lower supply, firms could still cover the costs and fee in the same time frame, he added. The clause was as good as any similar clause in other OPEC states where foreign firms operate, said the oil ****utive. It states that output limits would be shared equally among firms and that they would be “fully compensated,” he added. But a quota as low as 4 million bpd would mean renegotiating all the contracts, and would leave oil firms with deals with little resemblance to those already signed, he added. The terms, already seen as tough by the industry, could worsen.

“Maybe Iraq would extend the life of the deals to 40 years from 20, but really, that sort of thing is not so good for oil firms,” he said.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/busin...268/story.html

Faraj al-Haidari's (conscious): UNHCR has not received any Government claim to postpone the announcement of the election results

Commission chief electoral Faraj al-Haidari said "the Electoral Commission has not received any Government claim and officially postpone the announcement of the election results, and if they received such a request would be to us the position we take In a timely manner and according to the data and the latest developments."

Haidari said in a statement taken reporter that "we are committed to the date of the election results this evening and Atgier in time."

The EC edifice for (conscious) earlier "The insistence on manually recount means to return the entire electoral process again and that the Commission has performed with dedication and great efforts made by all observers hailed by Iraqi and Arab and international and the United Nations and the Arab League."

http://al-iraqnews.net/new/siaysiah/59992.html

A few hours ringing a bell to the final results of legislative elections and the rule of law does not accept the votes of voters have spoken in vain

Amid the enthusiasm and attracted much public and the expectations of multiple, left only a few hours of the Declaration of the Electoral Commission in Iraq, the final results of legislative elections that will decide the position of Iraq and undercut the political set, while still claims to manually recount the political and confirmation of the existence of sufficient evidence of manipulation in favor of the Commission the results of a political.

He (Faraj) In a statement: "The Electoral Commission also placed the final touches in preparation for the announcement of final results on Friday," and added that "The Commission concluded its consideration of most of the complaints made by political entities."

And the final results of al-Haidari said that "the difference in the parliamentary seats between the winning list and the list followed by no more than the seat or seats, without naming any particular political entity."

On the other hand accused (Kurd) Coalition candidate rule of law in Karbala, the Electoral Commission Taking money from the Iraqi National List led by Iyad Allawi, for fraud in the results.

The Kurds in a statement summed up the site of Karbala: "According to state law, the readings there are external and internal was behind the forgery of electoral results, and the day when we stand up and demand recount by hand, we are ahead of the leading competitors in the number of seats, and this requirement did not come from a vacuum but we demand from the top to win and we do not want the votes of our voters that Trouh in vain."

And on choosing the right person for the post of prime minister Ali al-Kurdi, "The negotiations are still continuing in this regard and there are no red lines on the personality of Mr. Maliki nor any other political figure but we are sure we will get a result that satisfies all parties, and state law, there is no name available alternative for prime minister, but we insist on Maliki and his nomination for prime minister again."

http://www.karbelaa.com/news.php?id=228