Thread: Go crazy in here!!!

Originally Posted by Elfwizard

Why do you care what a person does that you don't know? Doesn't make sense. Live your life, stop worrying about what people do that has no bearing on your life.

That's not at all true, it does effect my life, or it could. There are a lot of uneducated people in the world, more than I like to see, and quite a bit more than you would think in some places you wouldn't, like the USA. I read a poll the other day that said something upwards of a third of all Americans believe that the US Government had something to do with the 9/11 attacks. That scares the hell out of me. It's not because of some rational view of the evidence, for bob's sake Bin Lauden admitted it, they scream about how proud they are of doing it. It's the new "instant ***** media" of the internet that fuels this, and a people so disgusted with politics that they no longer pay attention enough to see how absurd that is. I can see a time when a like percentage start to believe these get rich quick scams are real, too. People who beliewve that banks secretly makes 40% a month and there is a conspiracty to keep the little guy down blah blah blah...
Several years ago, this mentality took hold in Albania, a huge ponzi scheme actually crashed the economy and led to riots in which scores died, and myself, I don't want to watch another yankee burn down Atlanta. I know the idea is a little out there now, but unless someone fights it. points out that the Emperor has no clothes, it could happen, so I do what I can.

Just want to make clear I"m not the one with the info - I found it at IIF in the Iraqi Dinar forum

Originally Posted by member99

I have a PhD in Economics thank you very much, and no I don't have any resources in the Iraqi Governement but in my mispent youth I worked at the Cincinnati Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, so I do have a little background in currency exchange.
It can't happen because there is no present prospect for the economic output to justify it's present level, much less a revaluation. People look at OIL and think everyone in the middle east is rich, but it ain't so. On the grand scale of things, these are not rich countries and even though their outputs per capita are high, in general their governments waste a huge percentage of it on corrupt or just badly run economies.
Yes, US and UK investors put moneyu overseas, not the same thing, though. These are both huge economies, and very stable, which makes takes a lot of risk out of inveting here, but also takes the risk premium out, ie: how risky is it to buy PG? (not very, they've paid a dividend every quarter for nearly 100 years, and increeased it every quarter for about 10). Almost all foreign investments by people in the US and Europe are small parts of the overall portfolio and in reality operate pretty much as hedge positions against short term dips in domestic markets.
People also try to compare this to the Kuwaiti Dinar, also a bad comparison. Kuwait's currency was suspended and in market terms almost worthless WHEN THAT COUNTRY WAS OCCUPIED BY A HOSTILE FORIEGN POWER, but both before and after that conflict, Kuwait had an operating and moree or less stable basis. Oil is less than 1/2 of the export of Kuwait before the war, is less than 45% now, but oil is Iraq's only export of note and their capacity, while underutilized, isn't going anywhere until the government finds a way to keep the insurgents from blowing up pipelines and well heads.
Face it, the reason the Dinar is not floated, or allowed to freely trade, is because it would collapse in the market, not because they don't want it to go up.

Member99 maybe you have to go to school again! These days it isn't about pure economic anymore, it is about what the BIG politicians want!!! Ever looked at your own country how corrupt that is or do you believe that everything is played by the rules.

Do you really think that Bush walks out without earning a dime, a lot of death people and a huge bill of the Iraq adventure, do you really think that big oil companies come in to Iraq for business at the current exchange rate???

Iraq has the oil and natural sources and the world wants it!

I think shabibi has the plan ready, it's only waiting for the right moment!

Member99, with a PhD in Economics, you should be able to understand that there is a lot more involved in rebuiding an entire country government and infrastructure than just the economic perspective. Fact of the matter is politics, economics, trade, security, not forgetting the US's foot in everyones 6 o'clock etc...has to all come together.

We gets bits and pieces of info, i.e. press releases, among many other "sources" and try to decipher what pertinent information may be there. Flip side is in those "sources" you never know if the opinions expressed are unbias or politically driven. All making this one tough environment to try and figure out.

So claiming that you know economics really means you understand one portion of the equation better than others. But that one portion, in my opinion, really does not mean you have it ALL figured out. Iraq is in a unique situation...one i would dare to say is so unique that it is anyone's GUESS how it will trun out. That said though, the fine people here definitely try and hold their hopes high (myself included) and having individuals such as yourself try and bring people down to YOUR reality, is not productive.

If you are not participating in this investment then why try and belittle those that are. And, if you are participating then why not try and be productive instead of always trying to rain on other's parades. Thank you

Originally Posted by member99

But okay, lets say tehy want it to go to $3 by 2010, what of that statement of a goal for 4 years from now do you have to twist to make it go up 1500% in one day?

Ok, last question: the govt in Iraq is subsidizing oil. food, clothing, and everything else you can imagine because the interim exchange for the dinar is grossly undervalued, and with the coming foreign investment laws, and Iraqi stock opening to the international community, and major imbalance with currency exchange with neighboring countries, Iraqs economy can not survive in this environment with out revaluing the dinar. Now, please take some time and read thru the news articles, and educate yourself on this investment. .and have some fun.

Originally Posted by PhilHelmuth

Susie,
I have been trying to find anything on Iraq having more oil reserves than SA. Where did you see that? Also What reserves from what books were removed. I am still lost!

It's been published in numerous places that Iraq probably has newly discovered reserves that would put it over what SA has..try doing a google search with a term like, "Iraq has more oil reserves than Saudi Arabia" and see what comes up. I'm not sure which reserves were removed from books however, it could mean that some of Saudi Arabia's reserves are depleted and have been subsequesntly removed as a crude oil source for excavation purposes, not sure though..Hope this helps you

where have all these negative people been? It makes me Nuts to keep seeing people with thick skulls rehashing over, and over facts from the past, and facts that have been discussed numerous times on here. I think People ought to stop bringing up past situations, and dinar Prices, and open their minds to what is Happening NOW. Things change in this world, and situations change. I have seen everything from the 2ndWW to the present. things Have always gotten better for the people at the end of a war, and sometimes during the wars. Why should This suprise anyone,and why can't the dinar make a big come back? I have friends with PHDs in certain subjects, and don't have enough insight to see changes happening for the best. TMI in their head , and blinded by that TMI. It is sad that 1 or 2 people can try to undermine the hope, and belief of a whole large majority. They bring their negativity on here to try to prove their intellegence, and end up Making a fool out of them selfs----The DINAR R/V will Happen. and soon.

BREAKING NEWS

The IIF Trolls have invaded and are determined to take control of this forum! Hide the women and children, this will get ugly... FAST!

Mods, if you need back-up let us know.

Originally Posted by AzSkis

Member99, with a PhD in Economics, you should be able to understand that there is a lot more involved in rebuiding an entire country government and infrastructure than just the economic perspective. Fact of the matter is politics, economics, trade, security, not forgetting the US's foot in everyones 6 o'clock etc...has to all come together.

We gets bits and pieces of info, i.e. press releases, among many other "sources" and try to decipher what pertinent information may be there. Flip side is in those "sources" you never know if the opinions expressed are unbias or politically driven. All making this one tough environment to try and figure out.

So claiming that you know economics really means you understand one portion of the equation better than others. But that one portion, in my opinion, really does not mean you have it ALL figured out. Iraq is in a unique situation...one i would dare to say is so unique that it is anyone's GUESS how it will trun out. That said though, the fine people here definitely try and hold their hopes high (myself included) and having individuals such as yourself try and bring people down to YOUR reality, is not productive.

If you are not participating in this investment then why try and belittle those that are. And, if you are participating then why not try and be productive instead of always trying to rain on other's parades. Thank you

And your point is? Of course I know there is a lot more to building an economy than outputs, but you do have to have the outputs. Iraq has just been forgiven tremondous amounts of debt, good as far as it goes, but that also means they won't be getting a lot of market rate investments in their country anytime soon, funny, people don't like loaning new money to the guy that just stiffed them. THey will of course get the investments, when they domestic situation is stable, but that's not happening right now, and I don't see it happening soon. And these investments will more than likely come from international aid organizations like the World Bank and the IMF, investments that come with a lot of strings attached, one of which is of course currency controls. Inflation is 70% there, do you see a rational way to upvalue the currency of a country where inflation is 70%, Unemployment is 50% and there is what amounts to a civil war going on? A country with only one export and where in large cities the electric only works 5 days a week? At what point, or on what date are you willing to see that this is not going to happen? You all stayed up overnight the other day, so you obviously expected it over the weekend, you're all watching it every minute now, so you must think it's imminent, so when will you face reality? First of October? First of the Year? I'm trying to be rational and polite, but when do I get to say "I told you so"?

for those that don't know ---TMI= Too Much Information.