Thread: Go crazy in here!!!

Sgs Man That Was Fun Reading Your Last Post In Aerbic

Originally Posted by member99

That's not at all true, it does effect my life, or it could. There are a lot of uneducated people in the world, more than I like to see, and quite a bit more than you would think in some places you wouldn't, like the USA. I read a poll the other day that said something upwards of a third of all Americans believe that the US Government had something to do with the 9/11 attacks. That scares the hell out of me. It's not because of some rational view of the evidence, for bob's sake Bin Lauden admitted it, they scream about how proud they are of doing it. It's the new "instant ***** media" of the internet that fuels this, and a people so disgusted with politics that they no longer pay attention enough to see how absurd that is. I can see a time when a like percentage start to believe these get rich quick scams are real, too. People who beliewve that banks secretly makes 40% a month and there is a conspiracty to keep the little guy down blah blah blah...
Several years ago, this mentality took hold in Albania, a huge ponzi scheme actually crashed the economy and led to riots in which scores died, and myself, I don't want to watch another yankee burn down Atlanta. I know the idea is a little out there now, but unless someone fights it. points out that the Emperor has no clothes, it could happen, so I do what I can.

And you think WE are thinking out of the box? If you think that Me buying a few million dinar is going to effect you in any way, then I say you are the one with the wacky views. Wow, I cant believe what I just read.

Thanks, eric69, I guess its time for me to relax, and watch some good old movie on the telly LOL and wait for our dreams to come true. GO DINAR GANG! LOL see ya' ll when the R/V Party is upon us. Keep the faith IT WILL HAPPEN> SOON!

Originally Posted by member99

Oh, last thing, did they announce the reval today?

Didn't think so. Maybe tomorrow.

Go to IIF thers a couple of pessimistic economists named Dave Dinar and Psychojerm you should meet you can be on erveryone's ignore list with them!

Originally Posted by member99

It means someone bought some dinars, nothing more nothing less. Ford was over $9.00 a share a week ago today, and that's insane for two reasopns, one, it doesn't have the numbers in revenue to justify that price, so from that view it's way too high, but on the other hand, Ford has more cash in the bank than what it would cost to buy the company at that price, so it's way to low by that measure. What all that amounts to is that it's a lot more complicated than you make it out to be. (okay, disclosure, I own 50,000+ shares of Ford, so I know the numbers off the tip of my tongue)
A daily fluctuation in a price is not a good way measure anything of important, markets are in the end ALWAYS rational, but along the way some strange things do happen. Anyone ever hear a story about Tulip Bulbs?

ramblin about some american company when we are talkin about dinars wont help your argument in the least. someone bought some dinars?? well, is that internationally trading the dinar then is what you are saying? the chart indicates INTERNATIONAL TRADING OF THE DINAR. hmmmm, what could that possibly mean?? they are international perhaps? and this is a live forex board, what is iqd even doing on there if its not being traded? an moving our direction even???? wow, what a coinkidink.

Originally Posted by PhilHelmuth

Sgs Man That Was Fun Reading Your Last Post In Aerbic

sorry, just take the link and run it through google translator.

Originally Posted by member99

They didn't say they wanted it at $3.00, they said they wanted it back at it's last freely traded value, which was about 33 cents (in late 2002), and I even think that's a optimistic statement.

I don't need your education, thank you, the Jesuits and some liberal Englishmen have already taken care of that. :)

Let me apologize for my tone and my statement about educating you. It was rude and I was wrong to use it. I'm usually pretty nice.

What the real value was has been discussed at length and I believe that finally Cigarman, I could be wrong on who, found where there are two sets of books and that it did confirm what the pre-saddam rate was, $3.41.

For what it is worth.

Monica

I think it would be good for all to remember that varying opinions and analyses can be beneficial to understanding points and counterpoints in any situation.

Some will use maintream econmomic thinking while others will staunchly defend that we are in an "out of the box" non-classic economic situation where political interests and other factors of rebuilding a theoretially "post war" economy defy mainstream concepts or manipulate them in the short term, understanding that those forces could create some sort of "correction" in the long term.

I think expressing varying analyses of this can be healthy if we can keep the attacks and personalities out of it along with all the stated and implied personal attacks and insults.. very similar to Dan Akkroyd beginning his Counterpoint on the SNL "Point and Counterpoint" debates with "Jane you ignorant slut" ...

I believe we have a uniqe situation here that defies normal economic theories and guidelines with the exception that an understanding of them allows those in power to know how a diversion or manipulation of them will place pressures on various areas and will, in the long term, end up needing to be changed or will self correct with economic pressures.

Another thing about mainstream economic anlaysis is that ever popular phrase "all things remaining equal" that gets slipped in there when discussing a single or limited variable that is being addressed. Economists know that that it is an expression of theory and that all things really never remain equal.. and I woudl submit that in the situation in Iraq all things NOT remaining equal is an extreme, thereby calling for extreme messures that "JUMP START" things, meet various agendas in the near term and do it in a fashion that won't cause negative economic impact there or in other parts of the world beyond an acceptable level ( interesting concept)... That being the case.. sometimes "its not what you know but WHO you know" that applies and in that regard, inside contacts could be a better read of things to come than Economic fundamentals.... but that is just one opinion.

Bottom line is.. diverse opinions are not a bad thing... having diversity of opinions cause attacks and ugliness IS a bad thing.. so lets keep this informative and good.. and dispense with the ugliness.

Neno .. if this is not an appropriate post here.. feel free to delete it.as I don't know that it would be appropriate anywhere else as it is specific to the current activity in this thread.

RF

ok shot gun is it or is it not

Originally Posted by member99

And your point is? Of course I know there is a lot more to building an economy than outputs, but you do have to have the outputs. Iraq has just been forgiven tremondous amounts of debt, good as far as it goes, but that also means they won't be getting a lot of market rate investments in their country anytime soon, funny, people don't like loaning new money to the guy that just stiffed them. THey will of course get the investments, when they domestic situation is stable, but that's not happening right now, and I don't see it happening soon. And these investments will more than likely come from international aid organizations like the World Bank and the IMF, investments that come with a lot of strings attached, one of which is of course currency controls. Inflation is 70% there, do you see a rational way to upvalue the currency of a country where inflation is 70%, Unemployment is 50% and there is what amounts to a civil war going on? A country with only one export and where in large cities the electric only works 5 days a week? At what point, or on what date are you willing to see that this is not going to happen? You all stayed up overnight the other day, so you obviously expected it over the weekend, you're all watching it every minute now, so you must think it's imminent, so when will you face reality? First of October? First of the Year? I'm trying to be rational and polite, but when do I get to say "I told you so"?

I do not have a phD in Econ, but I'd like to take a moment to comment here if I may:
1. Something like 90% of Iraq's debt has been forgiven now, perhaps even more. This was done willingly as I understand it, so it's not really the same as being "stiffed" now is it? I'll bet that there were some nice little economic incentives that go with the "forgiveness" as well, since we all know government's are not nearly as forgiving as us little folk.
2. I think there will be, and it has already been published in a few places that many industries are chomping at the bit to get into Iraq and do some business, and it ain't the IMF, IIF(joke) or the world Bank, although the UN and the Iraq "compact" meeting today will undoubtedly unveil some program(s) to get Bagdad in order. By the way, who is always more capable of rebuilding-repairing everything from economies to roads? If you guessed private industry over bloated, wasteful bureaucracies you guessed right! And private industry will make bucketloads of money without strings attached, unlike government lackeys. Which leads me to another point,
3. The entire country of Iraq is not a quagmire of hopeless civil disarray and unrest. It's Bagdad, dadgummit.
4. So 70% inflation, 50% unemployment, electricity on alot more than off (was the other way around 18 months ago) only one export (beg to differ, but it's a helluva lot better (oil that is) than widgets as your main export,) which BTW, you really havent read much about Iraq. Ever heard of the Tigris-Euphrates farm land potential? Apparently there is so much fertile land in Mesopotamia that it could feed the Entire Middle East and more..(Try a google search on that one Doc).
5. As for all the inflation/unemployment..Geez at ~1570 dinars/dollar I'm surprized it isn't alot worse. Again Doc, who can afford to buy anything? Politicians are being paid 5,000 USD/month..lemme see, that's over 6 million dinars/month for those jokers. I suppose if everyone made that there'd be some incentives to actually get out there and work, LOL (not that the politicos are actually working) but I digress. Maybe I'm simplifying this too much, but isn't it inflation when money doesn't buy what it used to? Say in years past? So if a chicken (or a widget..economists like widgets) cost 50 dinars in 1990, and in 2006 it costs 6500 dinars, what is that called?
6. Did you know that they have already minted/printed 10 dinar, 25 dinar, 50 dinar, and 100 notes/coins? (I might be a bit off on one of em,) now Doc, what would the point be for this?
7. Finally, are you suggesting that Iraq just keep subsidizing necessities for the masses ad infinitude? Gosh, they'll sit tight and be happy with that (not) and when the ISX officially starts doing business with the world I guess you can buy up the country for next to nada..