Thread: Dinars Absorbed Into The Cbi

Originally Posted by wellwishes

11 trillion is Socata's conservative estimate. I believe it is much lower than that. CBI has stated there will be no more printing of IQD. This means lower denominations are included in the 21 trillion total. But these lower denoms would be part of what is in the CBI's possession. That is significant because you would have to further reduce Socata's approx 11 trillion in the streets by the amount of lower denoims.
What would you estimate the amount of lower denoms to be? 2 trillion? 4 trillion? And remember, as they are released, they will replace the larger denominations in volume. So there will not be a net increase in circulated currency.

Also, Strongtower's info brings to light a very interesting issue in 2004: The IQD exchanged for as high as 4000:1 and was WIDELY considered worthless. NO ONE wanted IQD, especially Iraqis. Therefore, the CBI was able to "absorb" a substantial amount of IQD because EVERYONE in Iraq wanted US dollars at that time...Even the GOI. So I believe Strongtowers figures are realistic, because in 2004 no one wanted IQD. This means the CBI had very few opportunities to sell IQD. This changed somewhat in the second half of 2005 thru 2006, when the GOI mandated the use of IQD. However, the first year and one-half was much different.

I think we are talking less than 4 trillion in circulation...Probably much less.

I like this point that is made about the lower denoms being part of the retained stockpile of the CBI. Interesting twist to the floating estimate of how many dinars are out there. I know the numbers that we have tracked since early October indicate approx. 8.5 trillion dinars have been extracted, and I believe Michael16 and SGS's estimate that an additional 4 triillion were taken out from Jan '06 to Sept '06, so I would put the conservative level of currency removed from circulation at about 12.5 trillion dinars. With that said, if we assume there were approx. 21 trillion dinars printed, that would leave 8.5 trillion dinars to be accounted for. What I am going to do from now on is include this declining number to our daily tabulation. As we get hard facts on other aspects of the CBI currencey handling plan, such as the lower denom factor, I'll include those numbers in the tally. This has been an interesting ride, lets all pray that we are near the very end.

Originally Posted by Socata 850

I like this point that is made about the lower denoms being part of the retained stockpile of the CBI. Interesting twist to the floating estimate of how many dinars are out there. I know the numbers that we have tracked since early October indicate approx. 8.5 trillion dinars have been extracted, and I believe Michael16 and SGS's estimate that an additional 4 triillion were taken out from Jan '06 to Sept '06, so I would put the conservative level of currency removed from circulation at about 12.5 trillion dinars. With that said, if we assume there were approx. 21 trillion dinars printed, that would leave 8.5 trillion dinars to be accounted for. What I am going to do from now on is include this declining number to our daily tabulation. As we get hard facts on other aspects of the CBI currencey handling plan, such as the lower denom factor, I'll include those numbers in the tally. This has been an interesting ride, lets all pray that we are near the very end.

What will be interesting will be the inflation estimates for March. In Feb. estimates where abouta rate of 33%. I MUCH lower rate for march than this will validate that a reduction in the base money suppy has/is taking place and having the desired effect. These numbers should be out within the next week or so. Thank you.

Originally Posted by Wm.Knowles

What will be interesting will be the inflation estimates for March. In Feb. estimates where abouta rate of 33%. I MUCH lower rate for march than this will validate that a reduction in the base money suppy has/is taking place and having the desired effect. These numbers should be out within the next week or so. Thank you.

The Feb rates left out 2 sectors of the economy. Fuel and Transportation for some reason was not accounted for. The 33% inflation rate is rouse.

This has probably been addressed before but here is my question. What percentage of all these trillions of dinar being bought by the cbi are recirculated to pay for govt salaries and operations?

Originally Posted by crave681

This has probably been addressed before but here is my question. What percentage of all these trillions of dinar being bought by the cbi are recirculated to pay for govt salaries and operations?

Thanks crave681

And what percentage has been destroyed due to ware and tare?


Arkie.

just for shits and giggles, have we tallied up how much dinar we have collectively as a group. just to see, if only for the "gee whiz" factor.
if privacy is an issue then i understand ,just thought it would be cool to see

Originally Posted by deepfreeze

just for shits and giggles, have we tallied up how much dinar we have collectively as a group. just to see, if only for the "gee whiz" factor.
if privacy is an issue then i understand ,just thought it would be cool to see

Here: http://www.rolclub.com/iraqi-dinar-d...-you-hold.html But there are probably alot of New Members that have not participated in the Poll. Please do and if have a comment, post that too. Thanks.

Originally Posted by deepfreeze

just for shits and giggles, have we tallied up how much dinar we have collectively as a group. just to see, if only for the "gee whiz" factor.
if privacy is an issue then i understand ,just thought it would be cool to see

Some time ago, on this forum, there was a post about the Israeli government allowing it's citizens the right to acquire and hold Iraqi Dinars. I remember reading the article (it had to be at least a year ago) and I think it stated that approx. 350 million dollars worth of dinars (516,960,000,000 dinars) had been allowed into the country. That is half a trillion dinars in Israel. What I'm getting at is trying to piece together past information which would allow us to get a better estimate of the remaining dinars in circulation. Does anyone else remember this aticle and the stated amount of money being held by Israeli investors?

Originally Posted by Socata 850

Some time ago, on this forum, there was a post about the Israeli government allowing it's citizens the right to acquire and hold Iraqi Dinars. I remember reading the article (it had to be at least a year ago) and I think it stated that approx. 350 million dollars worth of dinars (516,960,000,000 dinars) had been allowed into the country. That is half a trillion dinars in Israel. What I'm getting at is trying to piece together past information which would allow us to get a better estimate of the remaining dinars in circulation. Does anyone else remember this aticle and the stated amount of money being held by Israeli investors?

If it was a Article a Year ago, then it might be here: http://www.rolclub.com/iraqi-dinar-d...1-14-07-a.html This is the first Think Tank that was locked do to over 30,000 post. Use the Search Funtion for that Thread with Key words. It always helps me to find things. lol

Originally Posted by strongtower

Hey Socata, me and my guys have been number crunching and this is what we have come up with so far in addition with your great DD and hard work. These numbers are not done but I thought you (Socata) would be interested in these figures. People say that the CBI is not taking dinar out of circulation but look at this IMF report and make your own judgement.

41. During 2004, the CBI has relied on foreign exchange auctions as the principal instrument in the conduct of monetary policy. The CBI has utilized the foreign exchange auction to manage liquidity in the system, to absorb excess dinars, as well as to provide foreign exchange to private sector activity. To allow for more flexibility in managing monetary policy, the CBI is in the process of broadening its set of monetary policy instruments. The CBI Board recently approved the creation of a lender-of-last-resort facility and an overnight standing credit/deposit facility, and has issued new regulations making the reserve requirement regime more flexible. The banking facilities should be in operation by October 1, 2004, and the reserve requirement regulation should be implemented by no later than December 1, 2004. Similarly, the newly introduced auction of treasury bills will help stimulate the development of a secondary market for these securities, which will enable the CBI to conduct open market operations. Moreover, in order to facilitate the formation of an appropriate benchmark interest rate, we will provide an adequate environment for the private sector's banks to increase their participation in the treasury bills auctions.


Iraq -- Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding, September 24, 2004

So far we have calculated all auctions for 2004 and came up with these numbers. 2004 reveals that the CBI bought 7,057,884,146,000 There are still unaccounted numbers for 2005-2006 Sept.

If 7 trillion was bought in 2004 and 8 trillion was bought from 10/06 - 4/9/07 that equals 15 trillion and we know 21 trillion was circulated. so 6 trillion is out there and we haven't counted from 1/05 through 9/06. It is my guess that there is NOT even 1 trillion in circulation as we thought. This is going to get interesting and now see no reason why it can't move directly to .97 but, it is up to Iraq to reval their system.

In short if 8 trillion were bought from 10-06 to 4/9/07 and 7 trillion bought in 2004. We now need to count all of 2005 and 9 months of 2006. This means 21 months of buying data needs to be counted. We are talking billions in circulation not trillions.

I will say that I am an experienced stock trader and with my knowledge of how stocks work and what dilution does. I see that it looks like dinars keep being printed but it contradicts with what is happening to their currency and economy. If Iraq keeps printing currency meaning dilution, then why has the dinar climbed from 4000-1270. and inflation was cut down to around 30%. What we are reading or seeing is a major contradiction. I have read where the dinar fell from $3.00 to .31 because Saddam started a printing frenzy. Then why are we not seeing this happen now. I'm not trying to pull a rabbit out of my hat but facts are facts. Something is not being reported right.

To be fair, this was a response to my thoughts on this issue.
FROM ANOTHER POSTER NOT ME
For Iraq and any fixed exchange rate country there are 2 parts to the exchange rate equation. One is money supply (m2), the other is Foreign Currency Reserves.
Iraq had practically zero in foreign currency reserves because Saddam had taken it all. The NID started at 4000:1 because of that lack of reserves. So even as Iraq increased money supply they were able to improve the exchange rate because they were increasing foreign currency reserves at a faster pace... ratio wise of course.
The perfect example is what’s going on in Kuwait and other middle eastern countries. We’ve seen the articles lately about pressure to raise the exchange rates in those countries. That pressure is not because they are reducing money supply, it’s because they have been increasing foreign currency reserves for the last couple years because of higher oil prices.

Hi Strongtower,

I'm new on this forum, and needed to know what your thoughts were on this issue of removing currency from circulation. I like the premise that you have here, but the only problem I have with it is that there is no guarantee that the CBI has actually removed this amount from circulation. As far as I know the auctions are putting a great deal of it back into circulation to handle aspects of the budget, pay government salaries etc...another thing to ponder is if you say there are only billions in circulation, they wouldn't have enough dinar to even support speculators outside of Iraq let alone this forum I would presume. I myself hold more than 30 Million dinar and I know of 50 other people on other forums that hold at least that and more. I wish what you say here is true, but to me there is no way of knowing for sure and thus pure speculation. Your thoughts??