Thread: is this how kuwaiti dinar revaled

goldraker: do you know where the 30 day window comes from? and how it relates to the LOI! Does this mean they have 30 days to make their money tradeable? or what? please explain!

Originally Posted by goldraker

Good job at digging this up! I will be totally honest. When Neno came online with this info. I was thinking, oh no more BS coming. However, who ever he is talking to. At the very least, knows what is going on. Then for him to mention the letter of intent. And now to see this, is just totally awesome! This could be our Holy Grail.....................

GREAT JOB FOLKS................

Originally Posted by mountaingirl

don't know if this is what you were talking about concerning the "LETTER OF INTENT" or not Neno. this was posted on the other forum 4/13/07

Third and Fourth Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement



Contents Page


Executive Summary .................................................. .................................................. ...............4
I. Introduction .................................................. .................................................. ........................5
II. Recent Economic Developments .................................................. ........................................5
III. Policy Discussions .................................................. .................................................. ...........6
A. Macroeconomic Outlook and Risks............................................. .............................6
B. Fiscal Policy and Related Measures.......................................... ................................7
C. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy .................................................. ......................9
D. Financial Sector Reform .................................................. .........................................9
E. Other Structural Issues .................................................. ..........................................10
IV. Program Monitoring and Financing Assurances .................................................. .............10
V. Staff Appraisal .................................................. .................................................. ................11
Tables
1. Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2004–07 .................................................. ..13
2. Fiscal and Oil Sector Accounts, 2005–07........................................... ..............................14
3. Fiscal and Oil Sector Accounts, 2005–07 (In percent of GDP)........................................15
4. Central Bank Survey, 2003–07 .................................................. .......................................16
5. Depository Corporations (Monetary) Survey 2004–06 .................................................. ..17
6. Balance of Payments, 2004–07........................................... ..............................................18
7. Indicative Quantitative Benchmarks Under the Stand-By Arrangement..........................19
8. Quantitative Performance Criteria and Indicative Targets Under the
the Stand-By Arrangement, 2005–07 .................................................. .......................20
9. Prior Actions, Structural Performance Criteria, and Structural Benchmarks
Under the Stand-By Arrangement .................................................. ............................21
10. Proposed Availability of Purchases Under the Stand-By Arrangement, 2005–07 ...........22
11. Indicators of Fund Credit, 2004–12 .................................................. ................................23
Appendix – Medium-Term Prospects and External Debt Outlook..........................................2 4
Appendix Tables
1. Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2004–12 .................................................. ....25
2. Fiscal and Oil Sector Accounts, 2005–12........................................... ................................26
3. Fiscal and Oil Sector Accounts, 2005–12 (In percent of GDP)..........................................27
4. Balance of Payments, 2004–12........................................... ................................................28
5. Estimated External Debt Stock, 2004–12 .................................................. .........................29
6. External Debt Sustainability Framework, 2004–12........................................... .................30
3
Attachments
I. Letter of Intent .................................................. .................................................. ..............31
II. Second Supplementary Memorandum of Economic and Financial
Policies for 2007 .................................................. .................................................. ......33
III. Addendum to the Technical Memorandum of Understanding .........................................43


http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/...07/cr07115.pdf

Originally Posted by pee wee

this was from adster earlier tdy........Right on my brother. Article IV is all about exchange rates. Par value means level with the dollar. Remember the articles stating close to the dollar/parity with the dollar? Plus to dedollarize and make the dinar the preferred currency they need to make it at least level with the dollar if not higher.

In order for a country to revalue they have to send a letter of intent to the IMF setting out their wishes. Then they have 30 days to carry out these actions. The GOI have done this before as short a time ago as January but the CBI did not carry out the reval.........Maybe this time will be different. .......

so...30 days or within 30 days of apr 13

Originally Posted by jedi17

so...30 days or within 30 days of apr 13

within

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/...07/cr07115.pdf

If you look at the dates then this report came out in March from the Feb 23rd meeting. The LoI may well have expired by now. But perhaps a new one has been submitted we don't know about.......

Originally Posted by mountaingirl

found this statement too
On the very first page of the .pdf:



The following item is a Letter of Intent of the government of Iraq, which
describes the policies that Iraq intends to implement in the context of its request
for financial support from the IMF. The document, which is the property of Iraq,
is being made available on the IMF website by agreement with the member as a
service to users of the
IMF website.

http://www.imf.org/External/NP/LOI/2007/irq/022307.pdf

This is from page 8 of the above linked document.

25. We will continue to work toward resolving outstanding external claims. Negotiations with China are underway, and contacts have been made with key creditor countries from the Gulf region. A number of non-Paris Club bilateral creditors have indicated a desire to securitize their claims. We will facilitate the development of a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), in order to encourage the conclusion of bilateral agreements with non-Paris Club creditors, according to the terms and conditions of the Paris Club agreement, and to avoid the emergence of a multiplicity of different securitizations. In this regard, we will keep the Paris Club fully informed. Most of the remaining unresolved private claims (which are only 4 percent of the original claims) are in the process of reconciliation with claims that are being settled as part of the liquidation of the London branch of Rafidain bank.

Very interesting indeed. This tells me that they have in fact already made deals with the creditor countries that have signed on to the Paris club agreements to trade the original debt for some type of security (i.e. bonds) and now they are trying to wrap up similar agreements with the outstanding creditors (i.e. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait). The original Paris group agreements, if I remember correctly, were 20 or 25 year term bonds that would allow the creditors a greater return with the Iraqi Dinar than they would have gotten from their original agreements, so I wonder what kind of return S.A. and Kuwait are trying to get.

Table 1 and Table 2 on pages 10 and 11 are also quite interesting. However I have yet to see anything that supports the reval in the next 30 days. According to the tables and the paragraphs that I have been reading it looks like sometime between the middle of May to early September everything should be wrapped up. Can someone point out something in the IMF article that clearly shows an imminent reval? Sure would be nice to see in case I am missing something here. Still looks good for this summer though....

Also from the document on pages 3 and 4.

5. We have tightened our exchange rate and monetary policies to fight inflation. The exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar was pegged to the U.S. dollar through most of the year at a rate close to ID 1,477 per U.S. dollar. From mid-November this policy has been adjusted to permit a gradual appreciation of the dinar; the daily auction-rate declined to ID 1,325 per U.S. dollar at and-December and reached ID 1,290 per U.S. dollar by end-January. Net international reserves continued to grow and reached a level of $15.3 billion at end- November 2006. The CBI also raised its policy interest rate to 16 percent on November 12, 2006, and further to 20 percent as of January 7, 2007.

$15.3 billion at the end of November.... Wonder where they are at now???

From pages 4 and 5.

10. These policies, and taking account of an envisaged further appreciation of the exchange rate (see below), should contain the consolidated government budget deficit to ID 10.2 trillion. In the event that oil revenues are substantially lower than foreseen, we intend to submit a supplementary budget to the Council of Representatives (CoR), in order to adjust government spending and keep the overall deficit in line with the level targeted in the 2007 budget. By the end of 2007, we aim to hold the equivalent of at least ID 3 trillion in assets in the Development Fund for Iraq (DFI). To keep the option of domestic financing of the deficit open and maintain a benchmark for market interest rates, we will step up the bi-weekly
issuance of treasury bills to ID 150-200 billion.

Well this sounds good. They can keep at least 1/3 of their budget in a DFI. Wish we could do that.....

From page 5.

11. To help curb inflation the CBI will continue its tight monetary policy stance and allow the exchange rate to appreciate gradually, assuming the inflationary situation warrants a continuation of this policy. The CBI also stands ready to further increase its policy interest rate, if needed and effective to bring inflation down.

Boo, slow growth.... Hmm, wonder if a different situation will warrant a quick rate change....

Originally Posted by TerryTate

From page 5.



Boo, slow growth.... Hmm, wonder if a different situation will warrant a quick rate change....

They can change the rate when they're ready. The main reason for a LoI would be for 1 big increase and not a slow and grow. This in itself is excellent proof of something happening providing the CBI and MoF follow through this time and not let the 30 days lapse without increasing the rate...... And this is no rumour!

They won't tell us their exact plans. The Chinese Yuan was a perfect example of that 2 years ago.