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  1. #281
    Senior Member ATMCSMD's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fredgwest1999 View Post
    Five cent RV would be an economic assault on it's neighbors and might be treated as such...here is an example....with the Kiwati Dinar at $3.64 and talking of a 25% increase this month putting it north of $4...you and I want to do business in the region....why would we set up shop there when we can move across the river to Bashra (where it is peaceful -for the most part, large modern city with a expanding oil export center) and do the same business for a nickle...Where are you going...$4 verus a nickle...more bang for my buck and thus economic warfare against Kiwait...

    I do not think the other countries would/will allow this...for sake of it look at the Jordanian Dinar posts for a $1.60 and they are such an economic powerhouse compared to Iraq???? What resources do they have besides a small port and bible tourists than would make their dinar worth $1.60 and Iraq's a nickle???

    If everyone is so hung up on M2 numbers and 1/1 or 2.41/1 is a pipe dream then explain to me how Jordan can function at $1.60/1???

    (And why does the IMF put its value at $2.53758 SDR or $1.78 (with conversion) in 2003 with sanctions in place if it wasn't worth so...they really do research these things I assume?)

    Plus, if they RV at a nickle the way I understand the IMF is they are more or less stuck there (+-4%) by agreement with the IMF...So, much for a shackout...? And if you look at the IMF's requirements it states something to the fact that they would not allow one country to do so at the expense of their neighbors...unfair competition...etc...currency level should complement existing rates in a region.

    I understand what you are saying but your logic is flawed. You are assuming that you can get the same thing for 1 NID that you can get for 1 kuwaiti dinar (thus the $4 to one nickel comparison). I don't think it matters what the exchange rates are compared to the US dollar.....a dollars worth of goods in one place will cost the same as a dollars worth of goods in the other. If something cost the equivalent of 1 USD in kuwait it would cost the equivalent of 1 USD in Iraq regardless of whether that equates to 1272 dinar or 1 dinar.

    The whole "pennies on the dollar" school of thought is based on faulty logic.

  2. #282
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    Quote Originally Posted by fredgwest1999 View Post
    Five cent RV would be an economic assault on it's neighbors and might be treated as such...here is an example....with the Kiwati Dinar at $3.64 and talking of a 25% increase this month putting it north of $4...you and I want to do business in the region....why would we set up shop there when we can move across the river to Bashra (where it is peaceful -for the most part, large modern city with a expanding oil export center) and do the same business for a nickle...Where are you going...$4 verus a nickle...more bang for my buck and thus economic warfare against Kiwait...

    I do not think the other countries would/will allow this...for sake of it look at the Jordanian Dinar posts for a $1.60 and they are such an economic powerhouse compared to Iraq???? What resources do they have besides a small port and bible tourists than would make their dinar worth $1.60 and Iraq's a nickle???

    If everyone is so hung up on M2 numbers and 1/1 or 2.41/1 is a pipe dream then explain to me how Jordan can function at $1.60/1???

    (And why does the IMF put its value at $2.53758 SDR or $1.78 (with conversion) in 2003 with sanctions in place if it wasn't worth so...they really do research these things I assume?)

    Plus, if they RV at a nickle the way I understand the IMF is they are more or less stuck there (+-4%) by agreement with the IMF...So, much for a shackout...? And if you look at the IMF's requirements it states something to the fact that they would not allow one country to do so at the expense of their neighbors...unfair competition...etc...currency level should complement existing rates in a region.
    Sounds good to me! I'll take your explaination! Thanks!

  3. #283
    Senior Investor cooldolphins's Avatar
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    The Jordanian dinar is 1:1.41
    Habakkuk 2:2-3 Then the LORD answered me and said: “ Write the vision And make it plain on tablets,
    That he may run who reads it. 3 For the vision is yet for an appointed time; But at the end it will speak, and it will not lie. Though it tarries, wait for it; Because it will surely come, It will not tarry.

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    Default seems to me

    Quote Originally Posted by fredgwest1999 View Post
    Five cent RV would be an economic assault on it's neighbors and might be treated as such...here is an example....with the Kiwati Dinar at $3.64 and talking of a 25% increase this month putting it north of $4...you and I want to do business in the region....why would we set up shop there when we can move across the river to Bashra (where it is peaceful -for the most part, large modern city with a expanding oil export center) and do the same business for a nickle...Where are you going...$4 verus a nickle...more bang for my buck and thus economic warfare against Kiwait...

    I do not think the other countries would/will allow this...for sake of it look at the Jordanian Dinar posts for a $1.60 and they are such an economic powerhouse compared to Iraq???? What resources do they have besides a small port and bible tourists than would make their dinar worth $1.60 and Iraq's a nickle???

    If everyone is so hung up on M2 numbers and 1/1 or 2.41/1 is a pipe dream then explain to me how Jordan can function at $1.60/1???

    (And why does the IMF put its value at $2.53758 SDR or $1.78 (with conversion) in 2003 with sanctions in place if it wasn't worth so...they really do research these things I assume?)

    Plus, if they RV at a nickle the way I understand the IMF is they are more or less stuck there (+-4%) by agreement with the IMF...So, much for a shackout...? And if you look at the IMF's requirements it states something to the fact that they would not allow one country to do so at the expense of their neighbors...unfair competition...etc...currency level should complement existing rates in a region.

    I am no economist, but your post makes common sense to me. I agree that the reval would have to at least come somewhere in line with the other
    neighboring countries. I sure hope this thinking is correct and that the Iraqi people prosper soon and get relief from all the pain and suffering they are under at this time. They have a rich country and certainly deserve to benefit from those riches in a meaningful manner.
    Behold the turtle-he makes progress only when he sticks his neck out

  5. #285
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    Hehe...Which of the following is a correct statement?

    OIL
    IS MONEY IN THE BANK.

    and

    M2 IS NUMBERS ON A PIECE OF PAPER.

    Case closed.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ATMCSMD View Post
    I understand what you are saying but your logic is flawed. You are assuming that you can get the same thing for 1 NID that you can get for 1 kuwaiti dinar (thus the $4 to one nickel comparison). I don't think it matters what the exchange rates are compared to the US dollar.....a dollars worth of goods in one place will cost the same as a dollars worth of goods in the other. If something cost the equivalent of 1 USD in kuwait it would cost the equivalent of 1 USD in Iraq regardless of whether that equates to 1272 dinar or 1 dinar.

    The whole "pennies on the dollar" school of thought is based on faulty logic.
    See if I have this right. If you are carrying usd a coke costs $1 in Kuwait or around 3.50 kuwait dinar. The same coke costs $1 in Iraq but 1272 iqd. The usd value does not change, but the dinar value does.

    Does this not blow our "it has to reval before ISX opening or all of Iraq will be bought up theory"?

    Only if trading is done in usd.

    Did I not read somewhere that trading will be done in dinar? If all trading has to be done in dinar then we are okay? Right? There's the ticket.

    So I believe I have just talked myself happy again.

    If I am wrong, give me a minute before bursting my bubble. Let me enjoy this feeling........................................... .................................................. ...................Okay, go ahead.

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    Quote Originally Posted by readytogo View Post
    See if I have this right. If you are carrying usd a coke costs $1 in Kuwait or around 3.50 kuwait dinar. The same coke costs $1 in Iraq but 1272 iqd. The usd value does not change, but the dinar value does.

    Does this not blow our "it has to reval before ISX opening or all of Iraq will be bought up theory"?

    Only if trading is done in usd.

    Did I not read somewhere that trading will be done in dinar? If all trading has to be done in dinar then we are okay? Right? There's the ticket.

    So I believe I have just talked myself happy again.

    If I am wrong, give me a minute before bursting my bubble. Let me enjoy this feeling........................................... .................................................. ...................Okay, go ahead.


    YOU CRACK ME UP!
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  8. #288
    Senior Investor Hardwood's Avatar
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    Cool Correction...

    Quote Originally Posted by readytogo View Post
    See if I have this right. If you are carrying usd a coke costs $1 in Kuwait or around 3.50 kuwait dinar. The same coke costs $1 in Iraq but 1272 iqd. The usd value does not change, but the dinar value does.
    Does this not blow our "it has to reval before ISX opening or all of Iraq will be bought up theory"?

    Only if trading is done in usd.

    Did I not read somewhere that trading will be done in dinar? If all trading has to be done in dinar then we are okay? Right? There's the ticket.

    So I believe I have just talked myself happy again.

    If I am wrong, give me a minute before bursting my bubble. Let me enjoy this feeling........................................... .................................................. ...................Okay, go ahead.


    $1.00 for a coke USD is approximately $0.28 Kuwaiti Dinar or 1272 IQD.

    Do unto others....you know the rest...

    Here I am getting my Dinar News Fix waiting for that "Bold Adjustment"

  9. #289
    Senior Member Pegasus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fredgwest1999 View Post
    Five cent RV would be an economic assault on it's neighbors and might be treated as such...here is an example....with the Kiwati Dinar at $3.64 and talking of a 25% increase this month putting it north of $4...you and I want to do business in the region....why would we set up shop there when we can move across the river to Bashra (where it is peaceful -for the most part, large modern city with a expanding oil export center) and do the same business for a nickle...Where are you going...$4 verus a nickle...more bang for my buck and thus economic warfare against Kiwait...

    I do not think the other countries would/will allow this...for sake of it look at the Jordanian Dinar posts for a $1.60 and they are such an economic powerhouse compared to Iraq???? What resources do they have besides a small port and bible tourists than would make their dinar worth $1.60 and Iraq's a nickle???

    If everyone is so hung up on M2 numbers and 1/1 or 2.41/1 is a pipe dream then explain to me how Jordan can function at $1.60/1???

    (And why does the IMF put its value at $2.53758 SDR or $1.78 (with conversion) in 2003 with sanctions in place if it wasn't worth so...they really do research these things I assume?)

    Plus, if they RV at a nickle the way I understand the IMF is they are more or less stuck there (+-4%) by agreement with the IMF...So, much for a shackout...? And if you look at the IMF's requirements it states something to the fact that they would not allow one country to do so at the expense of their neighbors...unfair competition...etc...currency level should complement existing rates in a region.
    Super post! Complete agreement.
    "If you don't stand for something, you will fall for everything."

  10. #290
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    ATMCSMD

    Where it does make a difference is as a business person looking to set up shop in the region (bringing in dollars to convert for setup) I am not saying that my costs of import would be any different because those would be paid at a dollar rate;

    What I was saying that my in-country setup and operating expense(s) at a nickle exchange rate for basic, core services (labor, electric, daily, office operations..etc...) I would be far better off running my office out of Bashra than I would being on the south side of the river...

    the bottomline on running a business out of Bashra would in this case save me a fortune on if nothing else than the cost of labor based upon both countries' min wage (which would have a cost factor directly related to the exchange rate...remember, I'm bringing in USD/Euros for this operational setup). So, again a lot more bang for my buck.

    Otherwise, why/would have a vast majority of American jobs gone overseas if there is a not a vast amount of money to be made or save..in the case of a company and that this is due at least in part to the different exchange rates and how they impact upon all of the sectors of each country's economy...ie...cost of operations, standards of living...

    So then why go south? See that would be the question asked of new investment/companies coming into the region...

    But, my main arguement was that according to the IMF policy this local, operational savings between paying for labor based on nickle rate and having to pay for labor at a $4 rate would constitute an unfair advantage for the Iraqis against their neighbors.

    If any that submit that Iraq would be lucky to crack a nickle on RV; then poor little Jordan is lost and you would very well see a crash of the Jordanian Economy because how could Jordan justify $1.41 when Iraq is only worth a nickle..and you can trikle all the way down the Gulf with that arguement.

    This is what the IMF tries hard to aviod.

    So my thought is that if the IMF said that their currency was worth $1.78 in 2003 in the middle of all the sanctions, no fly zones and a government involved in an internal/external civil conflict (sometimes shooting war) with Kurdastan/US/England/France/UN, 230 Billion in debt & ect... then, why with no debt, no sanctions and in control of their own oil again (instead of the UN - as of 7 April 2007) would their currency be worth less...a lot less...a nickle???

    Fred
    Last edited by fredgwest1999; 18-04-2007 at 08:07 PM.

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