UPDATE:
It is clear that based on my current timeline the CBI will not reach the 1260 projection by April 21rst of 2007. This projection was based on a press release by the MOF stating that was a goal in the first quarter of 2007. I missed the number by 12 Dinar, or .0096 USD or by less than 1%. My first projection of 1345 by the end of December 2006 actually arrived 2 or 3 weeks earlier than projected. This illustrates the constant change in pace of IQD value increase we shall see during this process. In this update I’ve added a 5 Dinar average increase to the previous 10, 15, 20, and 25 IQD per week spreads to the original post below. I still believe the pace can pick up based on how well the Iraqi security forces are put into position over the next several months. My sig will reflect still most closely to the 10 Dinar average per week. Hopefully we will see the 10 to 15 Dinar per week pan out for a timely return on our investments. But if security does not improve, we may have to be patient for a much longer wait.
Munny Model Timelines
Ok, many a peeple have asked me to provide a timeline for my Munny Model. It would have been easier had they asked me to predict next weeks Power Ball Lotto numbers, or to cure cancer, or to negotiate World peace. But since we are now currently actually seeing the Munny Model in action and within a few months we will know if it is and will be the model the CBI is using I thought I’d guesstimate a few potential timelines.
To restate the Model the current and final target rate will be 1 IQD = .27 USD. When the Iraqis reach the .20 levels of exchange rate the Model calls for Iraq to “fix” or “peg” the rate somewhere in that level. This could potentially be the end rate before the GCC Gulf Dinar is introduced or there is a possibility Iraq could readjust the rate at a later time. I allow for a potential large re-val to the GK “Heavy Dinar” level of .06 or the BH “March levels of .05 to .10 since both those values fall within the projected Munny Model value. But the most likely scenario of the Model will remain steady “upticks” or “bumps” which are currently employed by the CBI. Keep in mind that this is only a theory based on all the information and factors I’ve amassed of today. There is no 110% guarantee that these events will come to fruition and do not invest based on theory or rumour. Also never invest more than you can afford to lose in any “high risk” venture.
These timelines are based on an initial value of 1315 from the date of January 13, 2007. Keep in mind none of these timelines will be or even could be linear in nature. These values are based on an average “bump” per week but remember the Iraqis do have several holidays during the year where the exchange rate will remain constant. There will be starts and stops, big bumps, smaller bumps. As I said none of these timelines will be linear and one may be employed by the CBI and then later they may take a quicker or slower path. There is no way to exactly predict how quickly we will get to the target rate and the final timeline may be longer or much shorter than the ones outlined here. The timeline in my sig will use the most conservative potential timeline (10 Dinar average per week) but will be adjusted based on new information and the pace the CBI actually implements.
It is suggested you save or print this chart out for future reference.
5 Dinar average increase in value per week:
1315 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0007 USD Baseline starting point. January 13, 2007
1200 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .00077 USD June 23rd 2007
1000 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .001 USD March 29th 2008
800 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0013 USD January 10th 2009
700 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD to .0014 USD May 30th 2009
500 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.002 USD March 20th 2010
300 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0033 USD December 25th 2010
100 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.01 USD October 1rst 2011
50 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.02 USD December 10th 2011
25 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.04 USD January 14th 2012
10 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .10 USD February 4th 2012
5 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .20 USD February 11th 2012
1 IQD = .27 USD 1 IQD = .27 USD February 18th 2012
10 Dinar average increase in value per week:
1315 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0007 USD Baseline starting point. January 13, 2007
1200 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .00077 USD April 7th 2007
1000 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .001 USD August 18th 2007
800 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0013 USD January 19th 2008
700 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD to .0014 USD March 29th 2008
500 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.002 USD August 16th 2008
300 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0033 USD January 3rd 2009
100 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.01 USD May 30th 2009
50 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.02 USD July 4th 2009
25 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.04 USD July 25th 2009
10 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .10 USD August 1st 2009
5 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .20 USD August 8th 2009
1 IQD = .27 USD August 8th 2009
15 Dinar average increase in value per week:
1315 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0007 USD Baseline starting point. January 13, 2007
1200 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .00077 USD March 10th 2007
1000 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .001 USD June 16th 2007
800 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0013 USD September 15th 2007
700 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD to .0014 USD November 3rd 2007
500 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.002 USD February 2nd 2008
300 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0033 USD May 3rd 2008
100 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.01 USD August 9th 2008
50 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.02 USD August 30th 2008
25 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.04 USD September 13th 2008
10 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .10 USD September 13th 2008
5 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .20 USD September 13th 2008
1 IQD = .27 USD September 13th 2008
20 Dinar average increase in value per week:
1315 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0007 USD Baseline starting point. January 13, 2007
1200 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .00077 USD February 24th 2007
1000 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .001 USD May 5th 2007
800 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0013 USD July 14th 2007
700 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD to .0014 USD August 18th 2007
500 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.002 USD October 27th 2007
300 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0033 USD January 5th 2008
100 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.01 USD March 15th 2008
50 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.02 USD March 29th 2008
25 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.04 USD April 5th 2008
10 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .10 USD April 12th 2008
5 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .20 USD April 19th 2008
1 IQD = .27 USD April 19th 2008
25 Dinar average increase in value per week:
1315 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0007 USD Baseline starting point. January 13, 2007
1200 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .00077 USD February 17th 2007
1000 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .001 USD April 14th 2007
800 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0013 USD June 9th 2007
700 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD to .0014 USD July 25th 2007
500 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.002 USD September 1st 2007
300 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0033 USD October 27th 2007
100 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.01 USD December 22nd 2007
50 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.02 USD January 5th 2008
25 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.04 USD January 12th 2008
10 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .10 USD January 19th 2008
5 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .20 USD January 19th 2008
1 IQD = .27 USD January 19th 2008
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Thread: Munny Model Timelines (UPDATE)
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20-04-2007, 09:18 AM #1
Munny Model Timelines (UPDATE)
Munny Model IQD Value Projections
Range 1345 IQD/1 USD to 1 IQD/.27 USD:
1345 Target ACHIEVED!!!
1260 Target ACHIEVED!!!
1100 IQD/1 USD by Jan. 5, 2008
810 IQD/1 USD by July 5, 2008
500 IQD/1 USD by Jan. 3, 2009
300 IQD/1 USD by Apr. 18, 09
1 IQD/.01 USD by Aug. 8, 09
1 IQD/.27 USD by Sept. 12, 09
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